This is the Week 7 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.
This week almost nothing changed as there was only one real upset according to our picks; that was Texas Tech defeating West Virginia, who falls four spots and is "out of favor" in terms of achieving a BCS bowl. The bowl projections themselves remain the same as last week.
The big development was the arrival of the first official BCS rankings of the season. There weren't any major surprises but the current rankings give a clue as to how much things would have to move to match our projections. Here are our latest projections, with the current (actual) BCS ranking in the column 2nd from the right:
SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 7 (Oct. 13) results included
| Previous Projection Rank |
Projected 12/02/12 Rank |
Team | Projected 12/02/12 Record |
Current Record |
Current BCS Rank |
Projected BCS Bowl |
| 1 | 1 | Southern Cal | 12-1 | 5-1 | 10 | BCS Title |
| 2 | 2 | Oklahoma | 11-1 | 4-1 | 9 | BCS Title |
| 3 | 3 | LSU | 12-1 | 6-1 | 6 | Sugar |
| 4 | 4 | Florida St | 12-1 | 6-1 | 14 | Orange |
| 5 | 5 | Alabama | 11-1 | 6-0 | 1 | Orange |
| 6 | 6 | Rutgers | 12-0 | 6-0 | 15 | Sugar |
| 9 | 7 | Florida | 10-2 | 6-0 | 2 | |
| 7 | 8 | Oregon | 11-2 | 6-0 | 3 | Rose |
| 8 | 9 | Notre Dame | 10-2 | 6-0 | 5 | Fiesta |
| 11 | 10 | Stanford | 9-3 | 4-2 | 20 | |
| 10 | 11 | Michigan | 11-2 | 4-2 | -- | Rose |
| 12 | 12 | Texas | 10-2 | 4-2 | 25 | Fiesta |
| 13 | 13 | Georgia | 11-2 | 5-1 | 11 | |
| 14 | 14 | Clemson | 11-1 | 5-1 | 19 | |
| 16 | 15 | Oklahoma St | 9-3 | 3-2 | -- | |
| 19 | 16 | Kansas St | 8-4 | 6-0 | 4 | |
| 18 | 17 | South Carolina | 9-3 | 6-1 | 7 | |
| 17 | 18 | Boise St | 11-1 | 5-1 | 22 | |
| 15 | 19 | West Virginia | 9-3 | 5-1 | 13 | |
| [20] | [20] | Ohio State | 10-2 | 7-0 | [NA] | |
| 20 | 20 | Louisiana Tech | 11-1 | 5-1 | -- | |
| 22 | 21 | Texas A&M | 9-3 | 5-1 | 18 | |
| 21 | 22 | Wisconsin | 10-3 | 5-2 | -- | |
| 23 | 23 | Nebraska | 9-3 | 4-2 | -- | |
| -- | 24 | Oregon St | 8-4 | 5-0 | 8 | |
| [--] | [25] | North Carolina | 10-2 | 5-2 | [NA] | |
| -- | 25 | Louisville | 10-2 | 6-0 | 16 |
Dropped out: #24 Utah, #25 Vanderbilt
At the top we still have USC and Oklahoma fighting for the national title, with LSU a close 3rd. Currently LSU is 6th, ahead of both the Trojans and Sooners. If they all win out, will those two teams pass the Tigers? LSU would win six more games including the SEC title game, while USC and Oklahoma would go 7-0, which is an advantage in some of the computers and with the pollsters. LSU would have to beat Alabama, and that would help them a lot. But USC would beat Oregon twice, while Oklahoma has a number of high-ranked Big 12 teams left on their schedule. Both USC and Oklahoma play Notre Dame (currently #5) also. It would be very close between these three teams in this scenario—just like it was in 2003 when all three of these same teams had a single loss!
Alabama's computer ranking would be hit hard by a single loss and non-participation in the SEC title game, enough for Florida State to be ahead of them. The ACC is tremendously weak but the Seminoles would have a win over Florida—currently #2—to help them out. Of course, Alabama fully controls their own destiny to the national championship game, something that none of the top four teams can say as they each already have a loss.
Rutgers doesn't control their destiny either, as finishing 12-0 looks to put them behind the top 1-loss teams. But #7 Florida and #8 Oregon do; they're currently #2 and #3. And our #9 Notre Dame is very close to controlling its destiny, currently at #5; we have the Irish losing to USC and Oklahoma though, making a BCS bowl but not the big one.
Because Stanford and Texas were expected to lose last weekend those losses don't hurt them in the projection. The Cardinal won't make a BCS bowl, however, while Texas could—but they must win out. That might not seem likely after last week's bombardment at the hands of Oklahoma, but they're still in position as every team in the Big Twelve has a rough road ahead. Case in point: Kansas State, currently #4 in the BCS rankings, plays West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, and Texas yet. Those could just as easily be all wins (in which case a BCS title berth is likely) or all losses. The Big Twelve race is still wide open; even Iowa State made the initial BCS rankings at #24.
Big Ten, ACC weakness shows in current, projected rankings
Michigan is the one team we pick to make a BCS bowl despite not making the initial BCS rankings. In fact, there are no Big Ten teams in the initial BCS rankings, which is crazy. It's a product of weak early schedules, and many losses by pretty much every conference team, and the fact that Ohio State is ineligible for post-season play and therefore unranked in the BCS standings. The Wolverines are co-leaders in the Legends division while Wisconsin is #3 in the Leaders, which makes them the leader among eligible teams. The other three squads who can win the Leaders division are a combined 0-8.
The ACC is also very weak, which is why Clemson is only expected to reach #14 despite winning out. Style points will be needed to get them much higher. They're only #28 in the current computer ranking. Neither the ACC nor the Big Ten is likely to get more than one team in a BCS bowl.
BCS Buster less likely than at any time this season; Big East showdown looming
Potential BCS busters Louisiana Tech and Boise State had a bad weekend. The Bulldogs made it close but came up empty against Texas A&M, meaning they will not finish undefeated which was their only realistic shot at a BCS bowl. If they win out they'll reach about #20. Boise State beat Fresno State but Michigan State was upset by Iowa, which in turn hurts Boise. The six remaining games on their schedule won't do much at all for Boise State in the computer rankings, and even playing UNLV, Colorado State, and Hawaii will harm them in some of the calculations.
The Big East is having a sort of a renaissance with three teams currently undefeated and all of them in the BCS standings: Rutgers at #15, Louisville at #16, and Cincinnati at #21. We have Rutgers finishing very high after cleaning their slate, while Cincinnati hits a rough patch and falls back. Louisville is now projecting at 10-2 and if they beat Rutgers on the final weekend they'll take over the automatic bid from the Scarlet Knights. This might be another well-scheduled year for the Big East like 2005 when West Virginia, Louisville, and Rutgers provided drama until late in the season by all remaining undefeated.
Missing teams: Mississippi State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, TCU, Iowa State
There are five teams in the current BCS standings that we don't have making it to the final top 25. Mississippi State is #12 and currently undefeated, and being from the SEC they essentially control their destiny all the way to the BCS title game. But we think the conference will catch up to them soon and they'll finish with several losses. Likewise Texas Tech, TCU, and Iowa State in the Big Twelve, with the Red Raiders probably having the most potential to remain in the hunt. As mentioned, Cincinnati is our odd man out among the three currently undefeated Big East teams.
Key Games Next Weekend
Big games next weekend and what they mean:
- USC and Oklahoma should have an easy time remaining #1 and #2 in our projection as the Trojans host 1-5 Colorado and the Sooners host 1-5 Kansas.
- #3 LSU faces #21 Texas A&M. If the Aggies are going to be a BCS factor they need to get this upset. LSU of course needs a win to stay alive for the BCS title, and probably for a BCS bowl hopes period.
- #7 Florida plays #17 South Carolina. Since we project a Florida win, a South Carolina upset would give the Gamecocks the SEC East title instead of Georgia, harming Florida and FSU. In context of the current rankings, the Gators are #2 and Gamecocks #7, so it will be a big deal for next week's "actual" rankings.
- #16 Kansas State vs. #19 West Virginia: This one is also a bigger deal for the current BCS rankings, where the Wildcats are #4 and Mountaineers #12. But for the long run it determines how far Kansas State can go, and whether West Virginia can get back in the hunt. A Kansas State win would bump the Wildcats up in our projection, and probably end West Virginia's BCS bowl hopes.
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