Presenting the Week 5 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.
SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 5 results included
| Previous Projection |
Projected 12/02/12 Rank |
Team | Projected 12/02/12 Record |
BCS Bowl |
| 1 | 1 | LSU | 13-0 | BCS title |
| 2 | 2 | Florida St | 13-0 | BCS title |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Cal | 12-1 | Rose |
| 4 | 4 | Oklahoma | 11-1 | Fiesta |
| 5 | 5 | Alabama | 11-1 | Sugar |
| 13 | 6 | Texas | 11-1 | Sugar |
| 7 | 7 | Notre Dame | 10-2 | Orange |
| 9 | 8 | Rutgers | 12-0 | Orange |
| 8 | 9 | Oregon | 11-2 | Fiesta |
| 10 | 10 | Michigan | 11-2 | Rose |
| 12 | 11 | Georgia | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 12 | Stanford | 9-3 | |
| 11 | 13 | Oklahoma St | 9-3 | |
| 14 | 14 | Boise St | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 15 | Clemson | 11-1 | |
| 17 | 16 | Kansas St | 8-4 | |
| 18 | 17 | Louisiana Tech | 11-1 | |
| [19] | [18] | Ohio State | 10-2 | |
| 23 | 18 | Texas A&M | 9-3 | |
| 15 | 19 | Wisconsin | 10-3 | |
| 22 | 20 | Nebraska | 9-3 | |
| 19 | 21 | West Virginia | 9-3 | |
| 20 | 22 | Florida | 8-4 | |
| 25 | 23 | Utah | 9-3 | |
| 24 | 24 | South Carolina | 8-4 | |
| -- | 25 | Brigham Young | 8-4 |
Dropped out: #21 Michigan State
Last week there were a couple of bowl projections that could have been controversial if chosen by the bowl representatives. Stanford was ahead of Oregon yet we gave the Ducks the Fiesta bid, while Texas got the Sugar Bowl bid despite being behind Oklahoma State and being projected to lose to the Cowboys.
In the former case we figured there'd be more interest in the Ducks, and they would hold a "win" over Stanford. The Sugar Bowl likewise would want Texas a lot more than Oklahoma State, and if the Longhorns lost on the road in a close game it could be justified—though likely criticized.
Last weekend's games cleared up both controversial "picks" as Stanford lost to Washington, dropping them far below Oregon, and Texas beat Oklahoma State, making the Longhorns a virtual shoo-in for a BCS bowl if they finish 11-1.
Other than those two outcomes, there was very little more than incidental movement among the top 16 teams; in fact, the bowl projections remain exactly the same as last week.
There were, however, "upsets" in both major Big Ten games, with Wisconsin falling to Nebraska and Ohio State beating Michigan State. But the Big Ten's standing in the BCS this year is not good, and Michigan (or whoever wins the league) looks like the only BCS bowl team. Ohio State in ineligible for post-season play, so even as they rise to 10-2 they move up just one "virtual spot" and we don't give them the division title of course; that stays with the Badgers for now, and they fall to #19. Nebraska moves up to #20 while Michigan State projects to 7-5 now and isn't even on the radar.
Texas A&M demolished Arkansas and moved up a few spots; if they have more success in the SEC than we think, they'll move up higher. BYU inched onto the radar after beating Hawaii 47-0, but they already have 2 losses so further "progress" will be tough, requiring them to upset Notre Dame, perhaps. It's probably more likely that they will be upset themselves in the next few weeks by either Utah State or Oregon State, two teams who have far outplayed their pre-season rankings.
Key Games Next Weekend
Quite a few games next week are key to the BCS outcome:
- #1 LSU at #22 Florida: LSU hasn't looked good lately, and the smart money is on Alabama to make the BCS title game. We'll stick with the LSU upset pick for the long haul, but if the Tigers don't play well in the rest of their schedule they won't be in the SEC title game even if they beat the Tide. Hopefully for their sake the 38-22 win over Towson was completely due to looking ahead to Florida. The Gators are projected to lose 4 games including this one, so a win would vault them into the BCS discussion quickly. Being from the SEC, however, they need to nearly go undefeated to be one of the conference's two top teams. Winning the East division is their first order of business.
- #21 West Virginia at #6 Texas: Just after icing their Sugar Bowl berth in our projection, the Longhorns have to "prove it" by beating West Virginia. The Mountaineers scored 70 on Baylor but Texas' defense might be one of the best in college football—this game will tell. West Virginia will be looking a lot better in our projection if they win but still not BCS-bowl worthy. However, both teams control their own destiny to the Fiesta Bowl, and probably to the BCS title game; one team will lose that control on Saturday.
- #11 Georgia at #24 South Carolina: These teams, like Florida, are vying for the SEC East crown so that they might win the SEC title game and with it a Sugar Bowl berth. And since both are undefeated, like all the other SEC teams in our featured games they control their destiny to a BCS championship game berth. A South Carolina win doesn't make the Gamecocks our favorite to win the division, however, and unless undefeated, the division winner probably doesn't pass LSU and Alabama as the two BCS reps. So this game has to be treated as a must-win for any BCS bowl chance for either team.
- #3 USC at #24 Utah: The Trojans are gone but not forgotten, and our projection has them rising to within an inch of Florida State, waiting for the Seminoles to trip up. Utah was supposed to be good this year but their 2-2 start has put that into question. If they want to get back into contention for a BCS bowl, winning this game would help. It's their last chance to make a big splash, too, as they don't play Oregon or Stanford—which is also the reason for their strong record projection. The other "hot" Pac-12 teams—Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, ASU—are all still projected to finish 7-5 or so, and will need another "upset" or two to get on the list.
- #20 Nebraska at #[18] Ohio State: Can the Buckeyes play spoiler again? Nebraska is one of several teams looking to depose Michigan in the Legends division, and then gain a Rose Bowl bid by beating the rep from the depleted Leaders side. Ohio State would be the favorite there but they aren't eligible. We had the Buckeyes winning this game pre-season, so a Cornhusker victory would move Nebraska within striking distance of BCS consideration, as the Big Ten struggles to find two teams worthy of consideration.
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