This is the Week 6 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.
SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season 2012 BCS Standings: week 6 results included
| Previous Projection |
Projected 12/02/12 Rank |
Team | Projected 12/02/12 Record |
BCS Bowl |
| 3 | 1 | Southern Cal | 12-1 | BCS Title |
| 4 | 2 | Oklahoma | 11-1 | BCS Title |
| 1 | 3 | LSU | 12-1 | Sugar |
| 2 | 4 | Florida St | 12-1 | Orange |
| 5 | 5 | Alabama | 11-1 | Orange |
| 8 | 6 | Rutgers | 12-0 | Sugar |
| 9 | 7 | Oregon | 11-2 | Rose |
| 7 | 8 | Notre Dame | 10-2 | Fiesta |
| 22 | 9 | Florida | 9-3 | |
| 10 | 10 | Michigan | 11-2 | Rose |
| 12 | 11 | Stanford | 9-3 | |
| 6 | 12 | Texas | 10-2 | Fiesta |
| 11 | 13 | Georgia | 11-2 | |
| 15 | 14 | Clemson | 11-1 | |
| 21 | 15 | West Virginia | 10-2 | |
| 13 | 16 | Oklahoma St | 9-3 | |
| 14 | 17 | Boise St | 11-1 | |
| 24 | 18 | South Carolina | 9-3 | |
| 16 | 19 | Kansas St | 8-4 | |
| [18] | [20] | Ohio State | 10-2 | |
| 17 | 20 | Louisiana Tech | 11-1 | |
| 19 | 21 | Wisconsin | 10-3 | |
| 18 | 22 | Texas A&M | 9-3 | |
| 20 | 23 | Nebraska | 9-3 | |
| 23 | 24 | Utah | 9-3 | |
| -- | 25 | Vanderbilt | 9-3 |
Dropped out: #25 BYU
Despite all the upheaval in the rankings this week, the same ten teams are still projected to go to BCS bowls as were last week. But many of them are in different venues.
Both LSU and Florida State lost and dropped out of the projected BCS championship game; they are replaced by USC and Oklahoma, but all four of those teams has a loss now and none controls their destiny.
USC can insure that no Pac-12 team finishes ahead of it, but the Trojans would finish below both an undefeated SEC and Big 12 team; Oklahoma can't prevent Kansas State from going undefeated, so they don't even control their destiny in their conference race; LSU controls their destiny in the SEC East and therefore the Sugar Bowl berth, but that might not put them in the top two in a number of scenarios—and in any case they still have to get past Alabama among others. Finally, Florida State is hard-pressed to be in the top two even if they win out since the ACC is so pathetic this year. Their only hope resides with Florida; the Gators would have to win the SEC and go undefeated except for a loss to the Seminoles. Even then, there can't be both an undefeated Pac-12 or Big Twelve team.
Who does control their own destiny to the BCS title game? Alabama, for certain, and Oregon in almost all cases. Any undefeated team from the SEC, Pac-12, or Big Twelve is hard to ignore, but three undefeated teams means someone is crowded out. Rutgers even at 12-0 is crowded out by 1-loss teams most likely, and those would have to thin considerably.
Adding to the intrigue, Notre Dame also controls their own destiny and would be a viable BCS championship candidate if undefeated, as their schedule is very tough and they actually play both the projected #1 and #2 teams! If the Irish don't win out, they can certainly play spoiler to one or both of those teams. And if they lose to both, they're still in line for a top-8 finish which guarantees them a BCS bowl berth. In reality, a top 14 finish should be all it takes as the first bowl that can get the Irish probably will.
For now, LSU winning the SEC and FSU winning the ACC puts those teams in the Sugar and Orange bowls. Texas' loss drops them to #12, which is still eligible unlike West Virginia's #15, so the Longhorns are in the Fiesta Bowl thanks to Oklahoma ascending to the title game. The Fiesta has first pick and takes Notre Dame; the Sugar has 2nd pick and won't take another SEC team so they're left with Rutgers; and the Orange takes Alabama. The Longhorns and Sooners play next weekend and a Texas win would refigure the picture again.
The upset winners: Florida, West Virginia, and South Carolina
The Gators gained the most in our projection—moving from an afterthought at #22 up to BCS bowl contention at #9—by beating LSU. We're calling for their season to hit a few bumps with close losses in three games but they clearly control their destiny to the BCS title game. They still play Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida State.
West Virginia moved from #21 to #15 and is still not projected to make a BCS bowl. The Mountaineers control their destiny to the Fiesta Bowl at a minimum however. Key games are against Oklahoma and Kansas State, the only other undefeated Big Twelve team.
South Carolina jumped to #18 but still isn't the projected SEC East winner yet. They face LSU and Florida over the next two weeks as well as Clemson at the end of the season.
BCS Busters and others:
It was a bad week for BCS busters. The ascendance of so many SEC and Big 12 teams into the upper reaches of the projected rankings means there's much less chance that a non-AQ conference winner gets into the top 12 for an automatic berth.
Boise State and Louisiana Tech both slid back a few spots despite winning. Independent BYU (whom we'd count as a BCS buster, while Notre Dame doesn't) slid off the chart also despite winning. Meanwhile Vanderbilt upset Missouri and hopped back onto the scene. The Commodores are priced to perfection and have no shot at a BCS bowl, but their last six games are fairly easy by SEC standards (Auburn, UMass, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wake Forest) and winning all of them isn't out of the question. First they'd have to upset Florida, however. #24 Utah is also 2-3 and even winning out wouldn't presently put them in contention.
Key Games Next Weekend
More big games next weekend and what they mean:
- #2 Oklahoma vs. #12 Texas - One of these teams will be eliminated from the national title picture, and probably from the Big Twelve title race as well. We have Oklahoma winning in the projection above, so a Texas victory changes things.
- #3 LSU vs. #18 South Carolina - A Gamecock win would knock LSU out of the SEC title game, and probably put South Carolina in on the SEC East side. South Carolina would be competing with Florida for the Sugar Bowl in this scenario.
- #8 Notre Dame vs. #11 Stanford - Stanford could actually be the spoiler for Notre Dame here. This victory is key to Stanford's slim BCS title hopes, as Notre Dame later plays USC and Oklahoma. The Irish would be a borderline BCS team if they lose, but could still finish in the top 14.
- #9 Florida vs. #25 Vanderbilt - Vandy is only 2-3 yet we have them winning an upset here. Florida needs to not have a letdown after their big win over LSU in this potential trap game; if they win here they become the SEC East favorite.
- #20 Louisiana Tech vs. #22 Texas A&M - Louisiana Tech is projected to be 11-1—with this game the only thing standing between the Bulldogs and an undefated season. Win this one and suddenly the BCS picture changes, with Louisiana Tech a serious contender for a top-12 spot and an automatic bid.
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