Rutgers win puts Boise State back in BCS race, again

Just when you thought the BCS was safe from BCS busters, Boise State is firmly back in the mix after Rutgers 23-13 upset of South Florida.

You may have thought that the Broncos' much less talented 2012 squad, who suffered an opening-week loss and stands 0-1 as of Saturday morning, could not threaten—for the first time in years—to make it to one of the four most lucrative bowl games...but you'd be wrong.

With South Florida's loss, the premier Big East team is now 1-1 and faces Florida State later in the year. Rutgers, the team that beat them, looks to be 11-1 at best and that probably wouldn't put them ahead of a projected 11-1 Boise State team. And if Boise State finishes ahead of the top Big East team—and in the top 16—they're in.

And as of right now—looking at things strictly game-by-game—they should make it:

Projected final BCS standings, 12/02/2012

  1. LSU                        13-0 
  2. Southern Cal               13-0 
  3. Oklahoma                   12-0 
  4. Florida St                 13-0 
  5. Alabama                    11-1 
  6. Michigan                   12-1 
  7. Georgia                    12-1 
  8. Wisconsin                  11-2 
  9. Boise St                   11-1 
 10. Oregon                     11-2 
 11. Clemson                    11-1 
 12. Oklahoma St                10-2 
 13. Rutgers                    11-1 
 14. Texas                      10-2 
 15. Notre Dame                  9-3 
 16. Utah                       10-2 
 17. Ohio State*                 9-3 
 18. Stanford                    9-3 
 19. Michigan St                 8-4 
 20. South Florida              10-2

How Boise State makes the BCS

Several things have to happen for Boise to make a BCS bowl, as usual.

1. They have to go undefeated the rest of the way and finish 11-1. This always seems to be a given with Boise—they have to win out. But what's different this year is that they already have a loss and finishing 11-1 should be good enough, whereas in other years it wasn't.
   
   The key is that they suffered their loss early, and in a close game to a team that's currently in the top ten. In the past few years they've lost games late in the year. This year's team clearly isn't as good as the last few years, but the schedule is even friendlier from here on out.
   
   
2. They have to finish in the top 16. You might ask if an 11-1 Boise State team with a very easy schedule would make it into the top 16 in the final BCS standings, and it's a fair question. But it's pretty clear the answer is yes, they would.
   
   Right now—even at 0-1—Boise State is already #26 in the coaches poll. They only need to advance one place per week to reach the top 15. And the computers will rank them slightly higher. There's no doubt an 11-1 Boise would reach the top 16.
   
   Any one non-AQ conference winner that finishes in the top 12 gets an automatic bid, but it's possible but not certain that the Broncos at 11-1 would be in the top 12.
   
   
3. They have to finish ahead of the Big East winner, and any other BCS busters, if they finish from #13 to #16. Right now they're looking good in this department but things could change if another Big East power emerges. They also look much more safe than the last two years in terms of fellow BCS busters taking the sole guaranteed BCS buster slot, which went to TCU (now with the Big 12) two years ago.
   
   
4. It helps if Michigan State—and the rest of their schedule—does well. Boise State's 2012 schedule looked terribly weak in the pre-season, with only the Michigan State game standing out as a daunting challenge. But several of their opponents have outperformed expectations, including Nevada (upset California), San Diego State (beat Army 42-7), and Colorado State (beat Colorado). This helps them in the computer rankings mainly.
   
   And if Michigan State wins the Big Ten, then the human voters will look back at Boise State's 17-13 road loss to the Spartans as a plus rather than a negative.

Why Boise State Could Fall Short

If any of the points above don't happen, then Boise State's 2012 BCS run could fall short. But there are really only two potential scenarios that are guaranteed to put the Broncos back in the Las Vegas bowl:

1. Losing a game. At 10-2 the Broncos chances fall dramatically. Not to zero, but close. Losing two games would completely eliminate them.
   
   Can they win out? The Broncos aren't nearly as good as the teams of the last two years, and those teams didn't remain unbeaten down the stretch. And as Boise's opponents outperform, their threat rises.
   
   Boise plays BYU next Thursday and Southern Miss two weeks after that. They face Wyoming and Nevada on the road. Each game is winnable, but can they win all four? Given our pre-season analysis, their odds of winning their final 11 games was just 8%, and with their opponents' performance so far that has fallen to about 6%.
   
   In other words, despite being favored in every game from here out, the cumulative expectation is that the Broncos will lose at least one game—and probably two—in the coming months. This is by far the biggest pitfall for Boise, as it's stopped them the last two seasons when they were a top ten team.
   
   
2. A Big East power emerging. Remember, a BCS buster must finish ahead of at least one of the automatic qualifiers to become an "automatic" themselves. The Big East as usual seems to be the only conference that might not have a high-ranking finisher. South Florida appears to be out of the way, but what about Rutgers, the team that beat them? The Scarlet Knights play Arkansas next weekend, and if they win that they could finish ahead of Boise State. A few weeks ago the idea of Rutgers beating Arkansas was far-fetched, but now it doesn't seem that way.
   
   And if Rutgers loses next weekend—or sometime thereafter—who else is a potential Big East power? Only Louisville (2-0) and Cincinnati (1-0) are still undefeated in the league, so one of those two would have to be it. The Cardinals are in the top 25 and are the media favorite to win the league. They have some tough three games coming up—North Carolina, Florida International, and Southern Miss—but if they emerge from that unscathed they have the potential to end with a high ranking. Cincy plays Virginia Tech later this month and that's why their odds are considerably lower.
   
   In the end, though, it always seems the Big East winner has multiple losses, and the league leader hasn't finished ranked high for quite a while. We don't expect this year to be any different.
   
   And this year *is* different for its lack of fellow BCS busters to compete with Boise State for the only guaranteed spot. As of right now, only Louisiana Tech appears poised to challenge them, and the Bulldogs have yet to play Texas A&M. BYU and Nevada look like the other most prominent BCS busters and Boise State plays both of them and thus controls their own destiny in that regard.

What's the verdict? Given the last few seasons it appears that the Big East winner will have multiple losses and finish outside the top 15. No other team looks like a viable BCS buster. Thus it comes down to Boise State, and if they can win out.

This is where it gets tricky. One a game-by-game basis—picking the favorite in each—Boise finishes 11-1 and goes to a BCS bowl. But if you were to similate the season 1,000 times that would rarely happen, and most of the time the Broncos finish with 3 losses. Only if they go unbeaten through October will the Broncos be even 50% likely to finish 11-1.

So we're back where we've been with Boise State for the last several years. Both times those teams—far better than this year's squad—have stumbled despite being favored in every game, so the 2012 Broncos probably won't win out. Our BCS projections will continue to show them at 11-1 unless they lose, since we have to pick a winner for each game not a fuzzy cumulative record. But expect the Broncos to stumble somewhere as in years past.

Just don't assume that their early loss has put them out of the BCS picture. In fact, although they don't technically control their own destiny to a BCS berth, an 11-1 finish would make them as close to a sure thing as you can get.