Week three and the really good matchups are still few and far between, but there is always something. Three of this week's highlighted 5 games are already intra-conference clashes in the Big East, SEC, and Pac-12. Diving right in:
Rutgers (2-0) at South Florida (2-0) at 7:30pm EST Thursday evening
Pre-season Power Rating prediction: USF 31-26
Revised Power Rating prediction: USF 31-21
Analysis: These were our top two Big East teams—not Louisville—and they're both 2-0. But Rutgers and USF have played below expectations in all four of their combined games. Neither team started in our top 25 nor has made it in since, and both have fallen in our power rating, USF from #28 to #37, and Rutgers from #30 to #54. But what makes this game important is the BCS berth that the Big East winner receives. Just as important, the Big East is the main league than enables a potential BCS buster to nab a BCS bowl. Right now South Florida is #9 in our end-of-season BCS standings projections and Rutgers #24. A Rutgers win would shake that up immensely and would also give Boise State a large dose of hope that at 11-1 they could be going to the BCS bowl that eluded them in the last several years. But we expect the Bulls to win at home as Rutgers hasn't shown very good offensive capability so far.
Line/spread: South Florida by 7 1/2
Our pick: South Florida 28, Rutgers 13
#15 Florida (2-0) at Tennessee (2-0) at 6pm EST
Pre-season Power Rating prediction: Tennessee 28-27
Revised Power Rating prediction: Florida 23-21
Analysis: The marquee SEC game of the week was supposed to be Alabama-Arkansas but the Razorbacks blew that by losing to ULM, so this is the next best thing. In the pre-season it looked like Tennessee might finally beat the Gators after a long drought, but since then Florida has outperformed a bit putting that in doubt. The Gators' offense isn't much better than the last few years, if at all, but the defense has been stout in holding Bowling Green to 14 and Texas A&M to 17. Tennessee's offense has been as strong as expected, and we assume it will be enough to give them the win, as they know this is their first real opportunity to win this game in a long time. We picked against Florida last week, let's see if they can surprise us again.
Line/spread: Tennessee by 3
Our pick: Tennessee 31, Florida 28 OT
#1 USC (2-0) at #9 Stanford (2-0) at 7:30pm EST
Pre-season Power Rating prediction: USC 42-33
Revised Power Rating prediction: USC 42-35
Analysis: USC hasn't looked quite like the #1 team in the nation on defense, particularly last weekend when they gave up 29 to Syracuse. Given that, even Stanford's demoted offense sans Andrew Luck should score in the 30s. The Cardinal only managed 20 against San Jose State but lit up Duke for 51. USC has yet to put it all together in one game and might this Saturday, but since the last few games in this series have been incredibly close and it's at Stanford we won't pick a blowout. The Trojans are looking like one of those teams that will always score one more touchdown than whatever the other team manages, and that's what should happen here.
Line/spread: USC by 9
Our pick: USC 42, Stanford 35
#12 Notre Dame (2-0) at #17 Michigan State (2-0) at 8pm EST
Pre-season Power Rating prediction: Notre Dame 28-26
Revised Power Rating prediction: Notre Dame 30-27 OT
Analysis: Notre Dame looked great in their opener, beating Navy 50-10, but sour in beating Purdue by just a field goal. Meanwhile Michigan State edged Boise State 17-13 but clobbered Central Michigan 41-7. Both teams need this game—Notre Dame to show that they're back, at least to some extent, on the national stage and the Spartans to keep their lofty goal of a national championship alive. The Big Ten is wide open and—let's face it—somewhat weak this year as last week's action showed. There's no reason Michigan State can't win the conference but to make the BCS title game being undefeated is the only sure ticket. This is a tough call and our numbers say Notre Dame can win it, but we're not sure the Irish are quite "all there" yet as a team—mentally, physically, and emotionally—even in year three of Brian Kelly, while the Spartans under Mark Dantonio have been pretty focused the last few seasons.
Line/spread: Michigan State by 6
Our pick: Michigan State 31, Notre Dame 28
#21 Utah State (2-0) at #24 Wisconsin (1-1) at 8PM EST
Pre-season Power Rating prediction: Wisconsin 42-14
Revised Power Rating prediction: Wisconsin 30-14
Analysis: Yes, both these teams are in our subjective Top 25. Wisconsin stayed in—just barely—after their loss to Oregon State, and we replaced Utah with Utah State, who is undefeated and deserved it. Only one team will be in next week's rankings, however. Wisconsin should win this game, of course, but the Aggies have been playing solid defense—they held Utah to 20 points in an overtime win—and Wisconsin's offense has fallen far, far short of our (and everyone's) expectations. The Badgers have to respond to the challenge, however; just like Houston's offense came alive and scored 49 after their offensive coordinator "resigned", so will Wisconsin's running game demonstrate that it can still do it after their offensive line coach was dismissed.
Line/spread: Wisconsin by 13 1/2
Our pick: Wisconsin 34, Utah State 13
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