Presenting the Week One update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend.
We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We'll update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.
SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season BCS Standings: week one results included
| Previous Projection |
Projected 12/02/12 Rank |
Team | Projected 12/02/12 Record |
BCS Bowl |
| 1 | 1 | LSU | 13-0 | BCS title |
| 3 | 2 | Oklahoma | 12-0 | BCS title |
| 4 | 3 | Florida St | 13-0 | Orange |
| 2 | 4 | Southern Cal | 13-0 | Rose |
| 5 | 5 | Alabama | 11-1 | Sugar |
| 6 | 6 | Michigan | 12-1 | Rose |
| 7 | 7 | Wisconsin | 12-1 | Fiesta |
| 8 | 8 | Oklahoma St | 11-1 | Fiesta |
| 9 | 9 | South Florida | 11-1 | Sugar |
| 13 | 10 | Clemson | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 11 | Boise St | 11-1 | Orange |
| 10 | 12 | Georgia | 11-2 | |
| 12 | 13 | Texas | 10-2 | |
| 11 | 14 | Oregon | 11-2 | |
| 15 | 15 | Arkansas | 9-3 | |
| 17 | 16 | Notre Dame | 9-3 | |
| (17) | (17) | Ohio State | 9-3 | |
| 14 | 17 | Utah | 11-1 | |
| 19 | 18 | Nebraska | 9-3 | |
| (25) | (19) | North Carolina | 11-1 | |
| 20 | 19 | Rutgers | 10-2 | |
| 24 | 20 | Michigan St | 8-4 | |
| -- | 21 | South Carolina | 8-4 | |
| 23 | 22 | Texas A&M | 9-3 | |
| 22 | 23 | Missouri | 8-4 | |
| -- | 24 | West Virginia | 9-3 | |
| 25 | 25 | Stanford | 9-3 |
Dropped out: #18 Houston, #21 Vanderbilt
As we noted last week, since LSU is favored head-to-head at home against Alabama they are #1 while the Tide, despite their big win last weekend, remain unchanged at #5 with Michigan projected to be right behind them at #6 when the season is over. The big change is at #2 where Oklahoma moves into the BCS Title game replacing USC, who falls to #4. How did such a thing happen when the Sooners struggled and USC coasted?
It's all due to how other teams on their schedule performed. Close games and blowouts from week 1 are soon forgotten by the pollsters, but the computers don't forget who won or lost. California, for instance, put a crimp in USC strength of schedule by losing to Nevada. Syracuse also lost to Northwestern and Colorado fell to Colorado State, a triple whammy against the Trojans. With four projected undefeated teams, every bit counts.
Therefore USC is dropped into the Rose against Michigan, and Oklahoma State replaced Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The loser in this scenario is Oregon, who drops out of a BCS bowl (they, too, are hurt by Cal and Colorado losing) while Clemson—elevated by South Carolina's win over Vanderbilt more than their expected defeat of Auburn—is in position to selected as an at-large for the Fiesta Bowl. Wisconsin probably gets the nod, though, and after that there might be no room left for at-large teams.
BCS Busters: One Fizzles, Another Hangs On
There were only two non-AQ conference teams (not counting special-case Notre Dame) in last week's projected top 25, and now there is only one.
It may seem strange that Boise State's BCS chances went up after losing to Michigan State, but look at it this way: they were already expected to lose, and lose worse than they did. A 4-point loss at Michigan State isn't going to weigh down an 11-1 team. Also helping the Broncos in a big way were Nevada and Colorado State, who upset Pac-12 teams Cal and Colorado. Right now they actually project in the top 12, which would put them in a BCS bowl. If they don't make the top 12, as long as South Florida—or some Big East team—remains ahead of them, the Broncos won't be going. And in either case they have to win out, and win big, as usual. The better the Spartans do, the better for Boise, and this week Michigan State moves up to #20 mostly due to Northwestern and Indiana scoring minor upsets. Win a few games we picked them to lose and they'll be right in the thick of things.
Houston—last week's #18 team projected at 12-1—crashed and burned in the very first week, losing to Texas State 30-13. That loss was enough to wipe them off the chart, as Texas State was projected to be 4-8 this season.
Vandy out, South Carolina, West Virginia in
The other team to fall out was our Cinderalla choice, Vanderbilt. Losing to South Carolina wasn't a terrible thing but it puts the Commodores off the map realistically. The Gamecocks move in now that their projected record is better than last week's 7-5, but they have a ways to go before they are close to being one of the top two SEC teams. West Virginia took advantage of weakness in the falling teams as well as a poor showing by Stanford and moves in at #24.
Ineligible Teams May Be Asking "What If"
Two prominent ineligible teams had good weekends. Ohio State rolled Miami of Ohio 56-10, which kept them at #17 in our projection. North Carolina destroyed Elon 62-0. Both outcomes were expected but UNC also got help from Miami and Duke who scored upset wins according to our pre-season rankings. OSU and UNC could place first in their division, thereby causing a 2nd place team to compete for the conference championship; in fact, we project the Tar Heels to win the ACC Coastal, and if they were eligible, they would provide a bigger boost to #3 Florida State than beating Virginia Tech does for the Seminoles.
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