Presenting the Week 3 update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.
SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season BCS Standings: week 3 results included
| Previous Projection |
Projected 12/02/12 Rank |
Team | Projected 12/02/12 Record |
BCS Bowl |
| 1 | 1 | LSU | 13-0 | BCS title |
| 4 | 2 | Oklahoma | 12-0 | BCS title |
| 2 | 3 | Southern Cal | 12-1 | Rose |
| 3 | 4 | Florida St | 13-0 | Orange |
| 5 | 5 | Alabama | 11-1 | Sugar |
| 6 | 6 | Michigan | 12-1 | Rose |
| 17 | 7 | Stanford | 10-2 | |
| 11 | 8 | Oregon | 11-2 | |
| 7 | 9 | Georgia | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 10 | Wisconsin | 11-2 | |
| 15 | 11 | Notre Dame | 9-3 | Fiesta |
| 10 | 12 | Boise St | 11-1 | Sugar |
| 13 | 13 | Oklahoma St | 10-2 | Fiesta |
| 24 | 14 | Rutgers | 11-1 | Orange |
| 14 | 15 | Texas | 10-2 | |
| 12 | 16 | Clemson | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 17 | Utah | 10-2 | |
| (18) | (18) | Ohio State | 9-3 | |
| 9 | 18 | South Florida | 10-2 | |
| 18 | 19 | Michigan St | 8-4 | |
| 19 | 20 | Nebraska | 8-4 | |
| -- | 21 | Florida | 8-4 | |
| 21 | 22 | West Virginia | 9-3 | |
| 20 | 23 | South Carolina | 8-4 | |
| 22 | 24 | Arkansas | 8-4 | |
| 23 | 25 | Louisiana Tech | 10-2 |
Dropped out: #25 Texas A&M
Stanford's upset of USC re-shuffled our bowl lineup, but the main beneficiary wasn't the Cardinal—rather it's Notre Dame that got the biggest boost and now looks likely to be in the mix for a Fiesta Bowl bid.
Most importantly, of course, the Trojans fell from the #2 slot and therefore would be headed to the Rose Bowl, not the BCS Championship game against LSU. Instead, Oklahoma is back in that spot again. Why not 13-0 Florida State? Well, this week's terrible ACC performance—3 losses to Big East teams including one by projected ACC title game opponent Virginia Tech—downgraded FSU's projected year-end computer ranking. It's also why Clemson fell from #12 to #16.
USC, in fact, drops only to #3, ahead of both FSU and 1-loss Alabama. Or rather, ahead of the LSU/Alabama loser, as either team could occupy that space. The short rationale is that USC still controls their destiny to the Pac-12 title game, while the LSU/Alabama loser won't be going to the SEC title game. If USC beats Oregon, Notre Dame, and the Pac-12 North winner, they'll be right up there with an undefeated FSU whose biggest win will be Clemson. USC would have one more FBS win than the Seminoles, who played two FCS teams.
Stanford makes a big jump, from projected #17 to projected #7, but we still have USC winning the Pac-12 championship and facing Michigan in the Rose Bowl. The Cardinal win also elevated future opponent Notre Dame to #11, making them eligible as an at-large selection. This scenario would spark a big debate as to whether Notre Dame, Stanford, or Oregon is more deserving of a BCS pick. But if Notre Dame is eligible, they'll probably be the first one taken, and the Fiesta Bowl (now with Big 12 runner-up Oklahoma State) has first choice.
The Pac-12 teams won't be available as 2nd choice either, as Boise State looks to have an automatic bid at #12 and the Big East gets an auto-bid as well. Rutgers' upset win over South Florida puts the Scarlet Knights as the favorite; we think the Sugar would rather have an 11-1 Boise State than an 11-1 Rutgers, leaving the latter in the Orange.
Boise State's fate in this scenario is largely dependent on Rutgers. If South Florida had won, they'd still be in the top ten and Boise would be #13. A non-BCS conference winner is only automatic in the top 12, or if they're in the top 16 and ahead of a BCS conference winner. As it stands, they have some leeway with Rutgers finishing even 11-1, but if the Knights beat Arkansas next week Rutgers moves up and the scenario changes again. It will be touch and go all year for Boise (assuming they keep winning) as they're "priced to perfection" in this projection. But a week after rooting for Rutgers to win, they should root for them to lose this time around.
Florida in the race but has a way to go to catch Georgia, let alone LSU/Alabama
There were only two "upsets" in the rankings—Stanford over USC, and Rutgers over USF—but Florida's win over Tennessee was one that affected the rankings as the Gators move in at #21. Their projected record rose to a respectable 8-4, and they jump South Carolina and Arkansas to become the 4th-ranked SEC team here. The problem is that only two teams are selected per conference at most, and LSU and Alabama currently have a lock on the BCS title game and Sugar Bowl. Only the East winner can shake things up in the title game, and right now that's Georgia. Florida plays the Bulldogs but they also play LSU, so the Gators have a tougher road to winning the division. They also play Florida State so their odds of being in the national title mix are low.
Key Games Next Weekend
- Florida State (4) vs. Clemson (16)
Winning this game is the only way Clemson gets into the national title discussion, and indeed if they lose it their odds of an ACC crown are low. Their BCS bowl at-large odds at 11-1 are fairly low, too. A Tiger win would make Clemson the front-runner for the ACC title and they'd project to 13-0...but probably not in the top two since their schedule isn't particularly tough. An FSU win doesn't help the Seminoles as it's already figured in. - Michigan (6) vs. Notre Dame (11)
Probably the game of the week. The Wolverines have almost no chance to get back in the national title mix so a loss here wouldn''t change much—they'd still be favored to win the Big Ten and go to the Rose Bowl. But it would help Notre Dame immensely, pretty much sealing the deal for a Fiesta Bowl bid if they finished 10-2. Then, games vs. Stanford and USC would decide if the Irish could take it even to the next level. If Michigan wins, Notre Dame remains borderline at 9-3. - Rutgers (14) vs. Arkansas (24)
The Razorbacks pretty much hit bottom Saturday against Alabama, but the loss was expected. Losing to Rutgers would put them off the board, and it would vault the Scarlet Knights into the top ten with a 12-0 projection. It's almost impossible for a Big East team to seriously enter the national title picture while there are other projected undefeated teams, so it wouldn't affect their BCS bowl standing. They'd move up to the Sugar Bowl, though, if they were undefeated. Meanwhile, they'd probably knock Boise State out of their auto-bid status in the top 12, and one of the Pac-12 teams would replace them. - Louisiana Tech (25) vs. Illinois
This game is important because it's one of the Bulldogs' 2 expected losses (the other is the postponed Texas A&M game). If they beat Illinois they project to 11-1 and would narrow the gap with Boise State in the race for highest-ranked conference winner. The Bulldogs likely need to be undefeated to reach a BCS bowl but this is the first important step.
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