Presenting the Week Two update of our projection for the final BCS standings of the year; that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend. We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.
SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season BCS Standings: week 2 results included
| Previous Projection |
Projected 12/02/12 Rank |
Team | Projected 12/02/12 Record |
BCS Bowl |
| 1 | 1 | LSU | 13-0 | BCS title |
| 4 | 2 | Southern Cal | 13-0 | BCS title |
| 3 | 3 | Florida St | 13-0 | Orange |
| 2 | 4 | Oklahoma | 12-0 | Fiesta |
| 5 | 5 | Alabama | 11-1 | Sugar |
| 6 | 6 | Michigan | 12-1 | Rose |
| 12 | 7 | Georgia | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Wisconsin | 11-2 | Fiesta |
| 9 | 9 | South Florida | 11-1 | Sugar |
| 11 | 10 | Boise St | 11-1 | Orange |
| 14 | 11 | Oregon | 11-2 |
Rose |
| 10 | 12 | Clemson | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 13 | Oklahoma St | 10-2 | |
| 13 | 14 | Texas | 10-2 | |
| 16 | 15 | Notre Dame | 9-3 | |
| 17 | 16 | Utah | 10-2 | |
| 25 | 17 | Stanford | 9-3 | |
| (17) | (18) | Ohio State | 9-3 | |
| 20 | 18 | Michigan St | 8-4 | |
| 18 | 19 | Nebraska | 8-4 | |
| 21 | 20 | South Carolina | 8-4 | |
| 24 | 21 | West Virginia | 9-3 | |
| 15 | 22 | Arkansas | 8-4 | |
| -- | 23 | Louisiana Tech | 10-2 | |
| 19 | 24 | Rutgers | 10-2 | |
| 22 | 25 | Texas A&M | 8-4 |
Dropped out: #19* North Carolina, #23 Missouri
In our end-of-year projections, of the four "undefeated" teams LSU is far and away ahead due to schedule strength, while the other three are packed very tight. Any advantage in the projected computer rankings can move #2, #3, and #4 around, and this week the Pac-12's great performance boosted USC back into the #2 spot and the national championship game. Meanwhile Oklahoma State's loss took the shine off the Sooners' best future win and Oklahoma fell to #4, now destined for the Fiesta Bowl.
Alabama and Michigan remained at #5 and #6 and projected for the Sugar and Rose Bowls. Michigan would face Oregon if everything plays out as above.
Georgia's win at Missouri—a minor upset in our pre-season rankings—makes the Bulldogs undefeated except for a loss to LSU in the SEC championship game. As the #3 SEC team they're out of luck as far as the BCS bowls are concerned unless they make it to the BCS championship game.
Surprisingly, Wisconsin's loss to Oregon State didn't harm the Badgers that much over the long term. They still have to clean the slate in the Big Ten up until the Big Ten title game—easier said than done considering how they've played so far—but they're still in line for the Fiesta Bowl against the Sooners if they can. The Fiesta Bowl has first "pick" of at-large teams, and it would come down to Wisconsin, Boise State, or Clemson as Georgia is SEC's #3 and Oklahoma State and Texas are Big Twelve teams. What would throw that off is Notre Dame gaining another spot to get into the top 14, which probably puts the Irish in for sure.
BCS Busters: Boise State in striking distance, and Louisiana Tech has an outside chance
Boise State didn't play and yet they move up another spot, to #10, in the projection. If they finish in the top twelve they're an automatic slection, but they're still behind South Florida and as long as there is a Big East team ahead of them they won't be selected if they're lower than #12. USF barely beat Nevada and they have many more games that tough on their schedule, so only a top-16 finish might be needed. But Boise, too, could easily trip up, and they face Nevada later as well.
Joining the top 25 this week is Louisiana Tech from the WAC. The Bulldogs beat Houston and have only two projected "losses" on their slate: at Illinois on the 22nd, and the rescheduled Texas A&M game on October 13th. They'd need to win those, finish ahead of Boise, and be in the top 16 and ahead of at least one BCS conference winner (or in the top 12). They also play at Virginia before the WAC season starts.Pac-12 Upsets Boost League Teams
Oregon State, Arizona, and UCLA upset Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska this weekend. While only Oklahoma State (down 5 spots) suffered major damage, Pac-12 teams got a big boost. In addition to USC (up 2) and Oregon (up 3 to #11), Stanford took a big leap from #25 to #17 and even Utah—who lost on Friday to Utah State—moved up one spot. The Utes have to follow through and beat all three of those teams to "cash in" on their schedule upgrade, naturally. They also play Arizona State who beat Illinois (minor upset) so that's four teams on their schedule that got upgraded.
The SEC loses luster
With their dominance of the polls and these projections, the SEC was bound to take a hit when they start infighting. Case in point: Georgia's rise in the projection is accompanied by Missouri dropping off the charts altogether. And Texas A&M fell to Florida and now resides at #25. The worst hit was of course suffered by Arkansas, who lost in overtime to Louisiana-Monroe; they fall from #15 to #22 and every team slated to play them took a small hit, too, in the future computer ratings (including Rutgers, who falls from #19 to #24).
Other than Missouri, only North Carolina—not officially included as they're ineligible—fell off the list from #19 after losing to Wake Forest.
Key Games Next Weekend: USC/Stanford, Michigan State/Notre Dame, USF/Rutgers, Bama/Arkansas
Stanford could put its hat in the ring for Pac-12 or national title contention if they upset USC this coming weekend. Meanwhile Michigan State can boost their odds for a BCS bowl in a big way by beating Notre Dame. The Irish are tagged as winners of that game currently, so a Spartan victory would make an Irish BCS bowl outcome very difficult.
Boise State fans should watch the Thursday USF/Rutgers game closely. The Big East hasn't had a clear-cut winner in years and we're counting on South Florida to be that team this year. If Rutgers—only #24 in the projection—beats the Bulls, they'll become the Big East favorite but might not end up ahead of an 11-1 Broncos, making things that much easier for Boise State.
And of course there's Alabama vs. Arkansas, which lost a lot of its luster this weekend as Arkansas not only lost but lost key players to injury. It will only affect the projection if Arkansas pulls off what would now be an even more monstrous upset; otherwise things will stay the same and the hobbled Razorbacks will hang on in the projection until they lose another game they were supposed to win.
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