Here is our pre-season "projection" for the final BCS standings of the year, that is, after conference championship games have been played on the final weekend.
We use our pre-season rankings and strictly follow the game-by-game picks to determine the projected record and resulting ranking. We'll update them with the actual results each week and see how things change.
SportsRatings Projected End-of-Season BCS Standings: week zero
Previous Rank |
Projected 12/02/12 Rank |
Team | Projected 12/02/12 Record |
BCS Bowl |
-- | 1 | LSU | 13-0 | BCS title |
-- | 2 | Southern Cal | 13-0 | BCS title |
-- | 3 | Oklahoma | 12-0 | Fiesta |
-- | 4 | Florida St | 13-0 | Orange |
-- | 5 | Alabama | 11-1 | Sugar |
-- | 6 | Michigan | 12-1 | Rose |
-- | 7 | Wisconsin | 12-1 | Fiesta |
-- | 8 | Oklahoma St | 11-1 | Sugar |
-- | 9 | South Florida | 11-1 | Orange |
-- | 10 | Georgia | 11-2 | |
-- | 11 | Oregon | 11-2 | Rose |
-- | 12 | Texas | 10-2 | |
-- | 13 | Clemson | 11-1 | |
-- | 14 | Utah | 11-1 | |
-- | 15 | Arkansas | 9-3 | |
-- | 16 | Boise St | 11-1 | |
-- | (17) | Ohio St* | 9-3 | |
-- | 17 | Notre Dame | 9-3 | |
-- | 18 | Houston | 12-1 | |
-- | 19 | Nebraska | 9-3 | |
-- | 20 | Rutgers | 10-2 | |
-- | 21 | Vanderbilt | 10-2 | |
-- | 22 | Missouri | 8-4 | |
-- | 23 | Texas A&M | 9-3 | |
-- | 24 | Michigan St | 8-4 | |
-- | (25) | North Carolina* | 11-1 | |
-- | 25 | Stanford | 9-3 |
Although LSU is #4 in our pre-season picks, they're #1 when we project out the season following the game scores we derive from thse picks. The reason of course is that LSU plays at home against Alabama, finishing undefeated where the Tide have one loss. USC also finishes "undefeated" and in second place, and therefore also goes to the BCS championship game. Since they're #1 to LSU's #4 in our pre-season picks, technically they are favored to win the national championship. But we're only projecting the final BCS rankings, not the final rankings period.
Oklahoma and Florida State don't have a projected loss, either, but their schedules aren't quite as impressive at the top two. Alabama is the first 1-loss team at #5, having "lost" only to LSU and defeating #6 Michigan in week one. Michigan has a chance this weekend to jump in the projection by wiping out that sole loss...how far would they move up if they do it? Maybe we'll see...
Michigan's biggest win is beating Wisconsin for the Big Ten title, and the Badgers are right behind the Wolverines. Unfortunately they won't be able to be "undefeated" in our projection until the last week—unless Michigan falters enough so that they get a different opponent from the Legends division.
So Alabama goes to the Sugar Bowl, and Michigan to the Rose playing Oregon, the next highest-ranked Pac-12 team. Wisconsin is selected for the Fiesta (they have first pick), the Sugar takes Oklahoma State (though they'd want Texas more), and that leaves the Orange with #9 South Florida. The latter isn't a bad matchup—but the teams already play in the regular season. They'll hope for a full stadium in leiu of tv ratings.
#10 Georgia will be ineligible due to being the #3 SEC team. Speaking of ineligible, we place Ohio State and North Carolina where they would be if they were eligible, but we won't put them in the projected conference title matchups. North Carolina would be the ACC Coastal representative against FSU if they were eligible, and without them FSU's schedule is a bit weaker, thus they are 4th place despite 13 wins.
We kep the bowl picks simple, with the first 10 teams eligible. Texas could be chosen in the Sugar under this scenario but we'll go with Oklahoma State since they "win" the head-to-head; though Texas is higher in our pre-season rankings (#6 to #10) the Cowboys face them at home. Both are slated to lose to Oklahoma, and a win in that game would improve their fortunes greatly.
No BCS Busters
It doesn't look like a good year for BCS busters. TCU joined a BCS conference, and Boise State and Houston are not nearly as good as last year.
Still both the Broncos and Cougars project to 11-1. But Boise State's loss is to 8-4 Michigan State, and Houston's is to 7-5 UCLA, so neither will quite get there. More importantly though we have South Florida at 11-1, so at least for now that means a Big East team is ranked above any BCS busters. If USF falters and every Big East team has three losses, which seems par for the course lately, then the door is open again. Houston is probably not good enough to go undefeated even if they beat UCLA, but if Boise can beat MSU on the road that would mean they're better than expected and could run through the rest of their easy schedule.
And if you need proof that we made these picks prior to the actual start of the season on Thursday, look no further than #21 Vanderbilt. They were supposed to beat (upset) South Carolina last night and didn't quite get it done. They'll be falling in next week's projection.
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