2012 Pre-season Rankings: #9 Wisconsin Badgers

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Wisconsin Badgers  (Big Ten #2; Leaders #1)

#9	2011 Results	Record: 11-3	Strength:#6  Success:#17  Overall:#7
		AP #10  USA #11	Bowl: Lost to Oregon 45-38 (Rose)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #17; Athlon #17; Steele #13
		AP #12  USA #12	Bowl: Fiesta Bowl (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Wisconsin reloads with another grad transfer quarterback and hopes for a third shot at winning the Rose Bowl...or a shot at the national title.

Offense 5 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #6 (raw) #5 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #1 (adjusted)

The Wisconsin offense won't really be better than last year, but with the obvious decline of 2011's top offenses (Oklahoma State losing Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, Oregon losing LaMichael James and Darron Thomas, Baylor losing Robert Griffin III, and Houston losing Case Keenum & receivers) the Badgers float up toward #1 with the return of Montee Ball.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #61 (raw) #45 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #45
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #42 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #58

Russell Wilson saved the day last season by arriving from N.C. State as a grad transfer when the quarterback situation looked dire. He passed for 3,175 yards, completing 73%, and threw 33 touchdown passses with just 4 interceptions. His one-and-done act left the same problem for the Badgers this year, but voilá, another ACC school delivers as Danny O'Brien arrives from Maryland. O'Brien threw for 1,648 yards, 7 touchdowns and 10 picks last year, but had a better 2010 (2,438, 22 TDs, 8 int). Even if he's still a downgrade from last year's model, it's better than their situation without him, especially since Jon Budmayr is out again with injury. Jared Abbrederis and Nick Toon split 1,859 receiving yards and 18 TDs almost equally and the former is back, the latter, not, but four others with 150+ are back. O'Brien may prove to be an adequate replacement for Wilson—for the passing game at least.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #11 (raw) #10 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #7 (adj.)

The entire offense got a huge boost by the unforeseen return of Montee Ball. Ball had 1,923 yards with a monstrous 33 touchdown last year, and with James White (713 yards) also back the ground game will be just as strong. They do lose Russell Wilson's contribution (338 net yards) but the Ball-White 1-2 punch will be devastating in Ball's senior year—assuming no bad aftereffects of the attack he suffered in Madison over the summer. The offensive line will be a bit weaker as three starters are gone including two draft choices, but center Travis Frederick is back with senior Ricky Wagner and Wisconsin always has huge, strong offensive lines.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #44    Pass Defense  per-game: #15   Per-attempt: #46
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #13 (raw) #21 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #91	'11 picks: #35
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #16 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #78	'12 picks: #46

The heart of the Wisconsin defense is obviously at linebacker, where Mike Taylor (150 tackles) and Chris Borland (143 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss) are both back. Two of four starters are back on the defensive line, and two of four are back in the secondary, where Shelton Johnson (4 interceptions) returns but Aaron Henry (4 int) and Antonio Fenelus (4 int) are gone. With their key tacklers back, Wisconsin's defense looks stronger.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kyle French (3 of 5 field goals last year) takes over full-time for the departing Phillip Welch (5 of 6) at placekicker, while Drew Meyer will succeed Brad Nortman (42.2 average) at punter.
• Return Game:  Jared Abbrederis will again be the main kicker returner; last year he had a touchdown return on a punt (15.8 average) and a 24.6 average on kickoffs.
• Turnovers projection:  It's a sad story for the Badgers concerning turnovers I'm afraid. Wisconsin's positive fumble margin last year will probably diminish at least somewhat, and the defense loses enough from the secondary that it's doubtful they will match last year's 16 interceptions. Worse, they are going from a starting QB who threw 4 interceptions to one who had 10 in 2/3 of a season last year. All in all, compared to last year turnovers aren't going to be the Badgers' friend.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #87          2011 Recruiting Rank: #45
Bret Bielema, like his predecessor Barry Alvarez, is a winner. Four out of his six years at Wisconsin have resulted in double-digit win totals. But again like Alvarez, there has never been a year where Wisconsin is really in the national title discussion. In 2006 they had only one loss, but it was to Michigan who was in the national title hunt. In 2009 they lost two games at mid-season before their name could even be bandied about. In 2010 they lost their fifth game of the season. And last year, just when it looked like they were finally putting their name on the short list for consideration, they lost to Michigan State on a hail mary and followed that with loss #2, ending the discussion. This year's recruiting class is small enough (12 members) that it actually ranks last in the Big Ten, though the quality isn't bad.

2011 Recap
Wisconsin's schedule was criticized for being slight when they were 4-0, and there was some truth to that—it included two losing teams and an FCS team. But they also beat 11-3 Northern Illinois 49-7, and after they'd demolished Nebraska 48-17 the Badgers had proven themselves. But the real problem with their schedule was that they hadn't played on the road yet, and when they did Michigan State was ready for them. The Spartans fought back unlike their previous foes and Kirk Cousins' prayer was answered for a deflection touchdown. Perhaps the victim of letdown, the Badgers also lost to Ohio State on a late touchdown toss. Wisconsin bounced back to clean the rest of their Big Ten slate, including a dominant win over Penn State. They got their rematch with Michigan State and this time luck was on their side. After 2010's narrow loss to TCU, they get another shot at a Rose Bowl win and came up just short again, running out of time on the tying drive.

2012 Outlook

Wisconsin 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Northern Iowa	97%	W
9/8	Sat	@	Oregon State	80%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Utah State	96%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	UTEP	97%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Nebraska	57%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	89%	W
10/13	Sat	@	*Purdue	84%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	97%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	79%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Indiana	97%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	74%	W
11/24	Sat	@	*Penn State	88%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  undefeated: 15%

 

We favor Wisconsin to win every game this year, with the toughest game being at Nebraska. The odds we assign average out to a 10-2 record, but 11-1 is the most likely single occurrence. And the Badgers have a solid 15% chance of going undefeated.

The schedule isn't exactly killer. The non-conference slate starts with FCS Northern Iowa, who is just too small for a team as giant as Wisconsin. Oregon State is their toughest test out of conference, but the Beavers are not the Ducks. Utah State and UTEP are about as good as Northern Iowa.

After Nebraska (whom they beat 48-17 last year), the toughest game is Ohio State, whom they play at home. They also get Michigan State at home. They avoid playing Michigan, too—that is, until the Big Ten title game..

By our rankings Wisconsin is the #2 Big Ten team and therefore they lose to Michigan in the Big Ten title game. They would then go to the Fiesta Bowl where they'd play Big Twelve champ Oklahoma.

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