2012 Pre-season Rankings: #17 West Virginia Mountaineers

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

West Virginia Mountaineers  (Big Twelve #4)

#17	2011 Results	Record: 10-3	Strength:#25  Success:#20  Overall:#24
		AP #17  USA #18	Bowl: Beat Clemson 70-33 (Orange)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #10; Athlon #12; Steele #23
		AP #11  USA #11	Bowl: Alamo (Eligibility odds: 95%)

The Mountaineers hope that the aftereffect of their demolition of Clemson in the Orange Bowl carries through to their first season in the Big Twelve.

Offense 7.5 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #13 (raw) #14 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #4 (adjusted)

West Virginia should have one of the very best offenses in the country in 2012.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #6 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #49
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #3 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #41

Geno Smith threw for 4,385 yards last year with an amazing 31:7 touchdown:interception ratio. That put the Mountaineer passing game in the top ten nationally. This year it should be in the top five as Smith returns along with the incredible receiving duo of Stedman Bailey (1,279 yards, 12 TDs) and Tavon Austin (1,186 and 8). #3 Ivan McCartney (585) is back, too, but after that everyone who had 100+ yards is gone (except maybe RB Dustin Garrison), though they do get J.D. Woods (205 in '10) back. A few WR recruits didn't qualify (or will greyshirt) so depth might be their only issue.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #96 (raw) #78 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #58 (adj.)

The big question mark on the offense is Dustin Garrison, who is on the borderline of redshirting due to his pre-bowl game ACL injury. Garrison led the team with 742 yards as a freshman, and though Shawne Alston (416, 12 TDs) is a decent replacement he's a completely different type of runner, as is Ryan Clarke who returns after missing 2011. The offensive line returns three starters from last year—Joe Madsen, Jeff Braun, and Pat Eger—and one from 2010, Josh Jenkins. We count Garrison as 50% back, and the ground game is set to improve with his return—either more than we show if he does, or less than we show if he doesn't.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #61    Pass Defense  per-game: #51   Per-attempt: #27
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #64 (raw) #69 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #33	'11 picks: #24
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #77 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #58	'12 picks: #39

One thing that will get worse for the Mountaineers this year is the pass rush. The team had 31 sacks last year and around 1/3 of those are back. They lose Bruce Irvin (8.5 sacks) and Julian Miller (6 sacks) from the d-line and #1 tackler Najee Goode (5 sacks) at linebacker. The Mountaineers switch to a 3-4 from a 3-3-5 and Terence Garvin moves to linebacker. The secondary loses Eain Smith and Keith Tandy (9 pass breakups, 4 int) but Pat Miller is back along with Darwin Cook of the famous 99-yard fumble recovery touchdown (complete with tackling of Orange Bowl mascot girl) against Clemson.

The defense takes a small step down overall but the pass defense will be hurt the most as there will be less pressure on the quarterback—not good in the pass-happy Big Twelve.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Seniors Tyler Bitancurt (16 of 22 field goals) and Corey Smith (39.7 punting average) are both back.
• Return Game:  WR Tavon Austin was and is still primary kickoff and punt returner, with two touchdowns on kickoffs and a 26.1 average, and a 14.1 average on punts last year.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense will probably have fewer than last year's 14 picks, but the team's fumble margin should improve so they basically even out.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #34          2011 Recruiting Rank: #49
As is expected, year two of Dana Holgorsen's coaching tenure here yields an improved recruiting class, one that is pretty much in the middle of the pack for the Big Twelve in West Virginia's debut year. There has been some attrition already, with top WR recruit Deontay McManus not joining the team this year (either DNQ or grayshirting).

2011 Recap
Like every team in the hunt for the Big East title, West Virginia was hot one week, cold the next. Their pre-conference season was uninspiring but mostly successful, with a 4-1 start highlighted by a win over minor bowl team Marshall, a narrow win over Maryland, and a 55-10 win over Bowling Green that was probably their best overall performance. They also played LSU tough before the Tigers pulled away. In the Big East they were erratic, blasting UConn one week, getting crushed by Syracuse the next, then beating Rutgers before falling to Louisville. They managed to win out, beating Cincy, Pitt, and USF by a combined 7 points to form a 3-way tie at the top that they ultimately won by being the highest-rated in the BCS. Nothing they did really prepared us for the smackdown they put on Clemson. What started as a back-and-forth shootout became carnage by halftime and the Mountaineers won 70-33.

2012 Outlook

West Virginia 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Marshall	96%	W
9/15	Sat	N	James Madison	97%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	Maryland	94%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	72%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*Texas	23%	L
10/13	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	56%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	62%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	*TCU	66%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	28%	L
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	21%	L
11/23	Fri	@	*Iowa State	61%	W
12/1	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	95%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

 

West Virginia moves to the Big Twelve and they should be able to handle all but the very best conference teams. Playing at Texas and at Oklahoma State will be tough, as will hosting Oklahoma. Those three are fairly certain losses.

But everything else is manageable. The season starts with three cupcake games, Marshall, James Madison, and Maryland—M & M & M candies for the Mountaineers. They host Baylor, who won't be the same team as last year.

After Texas they have three hard games against Texas Tech, Kansas State, and TCU, and this is where we'll learn the most about the team. Winning all three would be a challenge even though we favor them in all, as well as Iowa State on the road. They close with another easy game, Kansas at home.

All told they should have three or four losses, maybe five if they're as erratic as they were last year. If they finish #4 in the conference they'll go to the Alamo Bowl and face a Pac-12 team, probably Stanford.

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