2012 Pre-season Rankings: #19 Vanderbilt Commodores

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Vanderbilt Commodores  (SEC #6; East #3)

#19	2011 Results	Record: 6-7	Strength:#32  Success:#74  Overall:#31
		AP NR USA NR	Bowl: Lost to Cincinnati 31-24 (Liberty)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #52; Athlon #41; Steele #47
		AP NR USA NR	Bowl: Chik-Fil-A (Eligibility odds: 99%)

There's always one outside-of-the-box pick in our top 25, it seems, and this is it: Vanderbilt in the top 20.

Offense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #61 (raw) #46 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #21 (adjusted)

Improvements in both passing and rushing should put Vandy's offense in the top 25.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #99 (raw) #90 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #78
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #62 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #83

Jordan Rodgers is back after passing for 1,524 yards and 9 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Backup Larry Smith is gone; he had 668 yards, 5 TDs, and 6 picks. Not great numbers but this year the passing game should move up to be at least average. Wyoming transfer Austin Carta-Samuels (1,702 yards, 9 TDs, 8 int) is eligible this year and should push Rodgers and provide a solid backup; like Rodgers, he can run the ball, too (392 yards in '10). Seven of last year's top 8 receivers are back, including Jordan Matthews (778 yards) and Chris Boyd (473). The passing game won't be great but it shouldn't lag nearly as much as last season.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #48 (raw) #32 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #10 (adj.)

Zac Stacy powered the offense with 1,193 yards and 14 touchdowns last year, while QB Rodgers added 420 net yards. Jerron Seymour (268) is also back, and Warren Norman who had 783 yards in 2009 is back from medical redshirt. The offensive line returns starters Wesley Johnson and Ryan Seymour, while half-time starters Josh Jelesky and Andrew Bridges are back as well. The running game should be stronger this year and the (slightly) more dangerous passing game will take pressure off the runners.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #20    Pass Defense  per-game: #39   Per-attempt: #11
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #30 (raw) #29 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #58	'11 picks: #7
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #31 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #66	'12 picks: #17

Vanderbilt's solid defense loses only four starters, but among those are the team's top three tacklers and the other lead the team in sacks. Tim Fugger (8 sacks) is gone from the defensive line but three starters are back including Rob Lohr who had 5 sacks. Two starting linebackers return including Archibald Barnes but #1 tackler Chris Marve is gone, and probable replacement starter Tristan Strong left the team recently. The secondary returns two starters including Kenny Ladler but they lose Sean Richardson as well as Casey Hayward who had 10 pass-breakups and 7 interceptions.

Vanderbilt's defense will still be tough, but we see far fewer interceptions than last year's 19 (mainly due to losing Hayward). Although their top three tacklers are gone, 11 of the next 12 are back.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Ryan Fowler and Carey Spear both made 4 of 7 field goals last year and both are back but Fowler is the favorite for the job. Punter Richard Kent (42.5 average) returns as well.
• Return Game:  Kickoff returner Andre Hal (23.8 average and one touchdown return) is back as well as punt returner Jonathan Krause (4.1 average last year).
• Turnovers projection:  We look for the more experienced QB stable to throw many fewer than last year's 18 interceptions, but with the defense picking off many fewer than last year's 19, it pretty much evens out.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #39          2011 Recruiting Rank: #58
Head coach James Franklin naturally brought in a much better recruiting class in his 2nd year. It's still among the lowest-ranked in the SEC, but it's progress. Franklin made waves earlier in the year when he said he evaluated applicants for coaching positions partly based on the attractiveness of their wives.

2011 Recap
Vanderbilt played very well in its last three games of the 2011 regular season, beating Kentucky by 30, taking Tennessee into overtime, and crushing Wake Forest. Or, you can go back a few games: Vandy wiped out Army by 23, lost to top ten Arkansas by just a field goal, and took Florida down to the wire in Gainesville. In fact, you can argue that the Commodores played well the entire year. Save for the understandable one-sided losses to South Carolina and Alabama, they smoked Elon, beat UConn, demolished Ole Miss, and narrowly lost to Georgia. There's really not an embarrassing game there, and that's some very good football for a 6-6 team. Vanderbilt probably owed their bowl bid to their schedule as they played seven home games, but they played well on the road, too. The offense picked up after Jordan Rodgers took over at quarterback vs. Alabama. Despite an atrocious 4 for 19 outing against Georgia and going 10 of 27 against Army, his deeper throws and running threat made the rest of the offense function better. Vandy couldn't beat Cincy, though, losing 31-24 in the Liberty Bowl but again, not an embarrassing performance.

2012 Outlook

Vanderbilt 2012 schedule & forecast
8/30	Thu	vs.	*South Carolina	62%	W
9/1	Sat	vs.	Presbyterian	100%	W
9/8	Sat	@	Northwestern	84%	W
9/22	Sat	@	*Georgia	32%	L
10/6	Sat	@	*Missouri	42%	L
10/13	Sat	vs.	*Florida	64%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	72%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	99%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Kentucky	89%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Mississippi	81%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	69%	W
11/24	Sat	@	Wake Forest	81%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

Vanderbilt's schedule almost couldn't be laid out better for a successful season. They get South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, and Tennessee at home, which helps considerably in each game, leaving Kentucky and Mississippi as winnable road games. Their non-conference schedule includes an FCS team plus brand new FBS team Massachusetts, Wake Forest, and Northwestern.

Only Georgia and Missouri look like losses as the Commodores don't have to play Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas.

With this favorable schedule and their best team in a very long time, we give Vandy 10 wins straight up and they could even win the other two (about a 1% chance of going undefeated by our numbers). In our cumulative estimate we give them a 9-3 record.

The schedule is there, now it's up to Vandy to not only be as good as we think, but to play consistent football, too. If they're the favorite in 10 games, they want things to go to plan—unlike a normal Vanderbilt season when the Commodores are hoping for fluke victories against much more powerful opponents. Last year's team was a good example for them to follow; if they're that consistent, they should do quite well.

If Vanderbilt does finish as the #6 team in the SEC they'd go to the Chik-Fil-A Bowl and play an ACC team, probably Clemson.

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