2012 Pre-season Rankings: #24 Utah Utes

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Utah Utes  (Pac-12 #4; South #2)

#24	2011 Results	Record: 8-5	Strength:#38  Success:#54  Overall:#36
		AP NR USA NR	Bowl: beat Georgia Tech 30-27 (Sun Bowl)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #26; Athlon #33; Steele #32
		AP #30 USA #32	Bowl: Holiday (Eligibility odds: 98%)

It should either be a very good year or a great year for the Utes, depending on how consistent they are.

Offense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #77 (raw) #69 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #39 (adjusted)

Last year the defense kept Utah winning, but this season the offense will more than hold its own.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #101 (raw) #74 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #101
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #32 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #96

With quarterback Jordan Wynn (727 yards, 6 TDs, 2 int) hurt most of the year, Jon Hays took over and had respectable stats (1,459 yards, 12 TDs, 8 interceptions) but the passing game was generally weak as a result. Wynn is back, as is Hays, and so are the team's six top pass catchers from last season, led by wide receiver DeVonte Christopher (663 yards). Unless Wynn gets hurt again—and in fact, even if he does since Hays has extra experience—the passing game will be far better this year.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #83 (raw) #85 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #61 (adj.)

With Wynn out the team turned to the run more than normal, and the chief beneficiary was John White who racked up a solid 1,519 yards and 15 touchdowns. WR Reggie Dunn was #2 with just 173 but he averaged 11.5 per carry; he's an option to get more carries as White was overworked last season and no one else returning had even 25 yards (Harvi Langi had 70 but left on a mission). The offensive line returns seniors Tevita Stevens, Sam Brenner, and Miles Mason, and as long as they find some help for White the ground game should be stronger.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #25    Pass Defense  per-game: #18   Per-attempt: #13
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #19 (raw) #16 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #45	'11 picks: #16
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #21 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #44	'12 picks: #16

Last year's rushing defense was great and the pass defense was even better. This year the 4-3 defensive line loses just one starter, Derrick Shelby (5 sacks) so the rushing defense could be well inside the top 25. There are issues at linebacker, however, as Trevor Reilly (also 5 sacks) is the only starter back, and they lose their top two tacklers from last year, Chaz Walker (118 tackles) and Matt Martinez. The secondary looks promising again as Brian Blechen, Eric Rowe (9 pass breakups), and Ryan Lacy (10 pass breakups) return. The team might allow a few more points but in general the defense looks about the same as last year in terms of stopping the run and pass.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Coleman Peterson (18 of 25 field goals) and punter Sean Sellwood (45 yard average) are both back.
• Return Game:  Reggie Dunn averaged 23.6 per kickoff last year and DeVonte Christopher is back as well. Griff McNabb was the main punt fielder with a 7.5 average.
• Turnovers projection:  Pretty much no change at all is foreseen in Utah's turnover profile.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #30          2011 Recruiting Rank: #47
This year's somewhat better recruiting class might be attributable to the move to the Pac-12, though it's hard to say. Utah didn't get many top 30 recruiting classes while in the Mountain West, however. The group still isn't in the top half of the Pac-12 but there are some true blue-chip players for head coach Kyle Whittingham.

2011 Recap
Utah played well in their first three games with Jordan Wynn at quarterback, but it was mostly the defense that did well against Montana State (W 27-10) and USC (L 23-14). All cylinders were firing as they destroyed BYU 54-10 thanks to numerous Cougar turnovers. From game four where Wynn was hurt, to the end of the year, Utah had five decent offensive performances but four meltdowns, all of which they lost. They beat Pitt, Oregon State, Arizona, and UCLA easily, but were flogged by Washington, Arizona State, and Cal, and even lost their last game to Colorado. For some reason the Pac-12 seems to breed erratic teams and Utah certainly became one last year. Facing Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl Utah proved the general rule that if you have 10 or more days to prepare for the Yellow Jackets, you win, though it took them overtime to accomplish it.

2012 Outlook

Utah 2012 schedule & forecast
8/30	Thu	vs.	Northern Colorado	100%	W
9/7	Fri	@	Utah State	75%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	BYU	69%	W
9/22	Sat	@	*Arizona State	72%	W
10/4	Thu	vs.	*USC	15%	L
10/13	Sat	@	*UCLA	61%	W
10/20	Sat	@	*Oregon State	61%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*California	70%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	85%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Washington	59%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	85%	W
11/23	Fri	@	*Colorado	90%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

 

How good could this season be? We think Utah should be favored in every game except USC. How mediocre could the season be? If Utah plays as up and down as last year they could finish 6-6 or so (missing a bowl is only a 2% possibility).

With Wynn back the erratic play should be greatly reduced and Utah should win most of the games they're favored in. You can categorize the wins by likelihood: Foregone conclusions: Northern Colorado. Very likely: Washington State, Arizona, and Colorado. Strong probability: Utah State, BYU, Arizona State, and Cal. Tight game but should win: UCLA, Oregon State, Washington.

The cumulative projection gives them 8 wins (the average), though 9-3 is the most common outcome (the mode) based on the odds. If Utah ends up the #4 team in the Pac-12 they'll go to the Holiday Bowl and face a Big Twelve team, which could be old Mountain West foe TCU.

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