2012 Pre-season Rankings: #16 South Carolina Gamecocks

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

South Carolina Gamecocks  (SEC #5; East #2)

#16	2011 Results	Record: 11-2	Strength:#21  Success:#11  Overall:#14
		AP #9  USA #8	Bowl: Beat Nebraska 30-13 (Capital One)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #11; Athlon #10; Steele #20
		AP #9  USA #9	Bowl: Outback (Eligibility odds: 94%)

South Carolina's home/road schedule sets up several too-close-to-call games that will determine how successful the Gamecocks' season is.

Offense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #42 (raw) #32 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #32 (adjusted)

This year's offense looks about as good as last year's; if Marcus Lattimore has a full year healthy, it will be better.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #97 (raw) #89 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #88
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #97 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #92

Connor Shaw won the starting job last year, lost it, then got it back when Stephen Garcia (844 yards, 4 TDs, 9 int) finally wore out his welcome in Spurrierville. Shaw finished with 1,448 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 6 picks. The production wasn't exactly electric, and Alshon Jeffery (762 receiving yards, 8 TD catches) is gone along with #3 Bruce Ellington (211). Pretty much every one else who caught a pass is back starting with Ace Sanders (#2 w/383) so things won't be bad as long as a few step up. Protection wasn't good last year and won't be much better this season. Shaw will beat his own numbers from last year but overall there might not be a big improvement.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #26 (raw) #25 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #17 (adj.)

Marcus Lattimore had 818 yards and 10 touchdowns in just about half the season. QB Shaw was #2 with a solid 525 net and Brandon Wilds #3 with 486. Give Lattimore a full year injury-free and the team's running game will jump. The offensive line has T.J. Johnson and A.J. Cann back plus a few part-timers. Still, it's a healthy Lattimore that makes the difference. He probably won't be 100% right away but as long as no new injuries hit, South Carolina should forge well into the top 25 in rushing.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #14    Pass Defense  per-game: #2   Per-attempt: #2
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #11 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #30	'11 picks: #8
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #17 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #35	'12 picks: #33

South Carolina had a great defense last year, strong against the run and even better vs. the pass (#2 only to Alabama). They were also top ten in interceptions adjusted for their opponents. Overall they were the #10 scoring defense in the nation.

This year's model is a slight downgrade but still among the best. Particularly in the front seven, where five starters are back—and that doesn't even include Jadeveon Clowney, who was a backup last year but still had 8 sacks. Devin Taylor (6 sacks) is among two starters back on the 4-3 D-line, which loses Melvin Ingram (10 sacks). At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Antonio Allen but Shaq Wilson is back and they move DeVonte Holloman in from safety. D.J. Swearinger is the only starter back in the secondary, however, a fact reflected in our much-reduced estimate for picks this season (they had 19 last year). Akeem Aguste, a 2010 starter, is coming back but has been delayed by another injury; he'll miss at least 3 games. Either way the pass defense won't be what it was last year but the rush defense should remain tough.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Jay Wooten (7 of 11 field goals last year) and punter Joey Scribner-Howard (38.9 average) are gone. The kicker will be one of freshman Nick St. German, senior Adam Yates, or redshirt freshman Landon Ard. Sophomore Patrick Fish or junior Mike Williamson will punt.
• Return Game:  Ace Sanders had a touchdown return on a punt last year, while Bruce Ellington averaged 23.1 per kickoff return. With Ellington playing only basketball this season, Victor Hampton (25.4) will receive more kickoffs.
• Turnovers projection:  More than any other team, South Carolina should reduce its interceptions thrown. Connor Shaw threw only 6 picks last year, with Stephen Garcia responsible for 9. Even if Shaw doubles his picks that's still an overall reduction of 3, and that's probably a worst-case. Unfortunately, the defense probably "loses" more interceptions than any other team, too; just 7 of 19 interceptions are back and they didn't have an overwhelming number of pass breakups. We feel the reduction in turnovers gained might cancel out the benefit of fewer picks thrown almost exactly.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #18          2011 Recruiting Rank: #4
This year's class isn't quite as good as last year's but that's to be expected. For one thing a top five class is usually large and full of great players, and next year's class is necessarily smaller. That's true in this case. Also, this year's class has already had more DNQs than last year's did at this time; it's down to 22 players from 25. Still, it's a high-quality group and further helps Steve Spurrier toward his goal of winning championships. So far at SC all he has is one SEC East championship.

2011 Recap
The first half of South Carolina's season was all about Marcus Lattimore and Stephen Garcia, but neither was there after mid-year. The Gamecock's opener was almost a disaster, with East Carolina taking a 17-0 lead before Spurrier pulled Shaw for Garcia, who led a huge comeback win. After that, Garcia and Lattimore sparked narrow wins over Georgia and Navy, while the defense controlled Vanderbilt. The offense stalled against Auburn and Garcia was dismissed due to yet another team violation. With Shaw, the offense exploded against Kentucky, but Lattimore was lost against Mississippi State; South Carolina barely won that game, limped to a win over Tennessee, and lost to Arkansas. They managed to beat Florida and The Citadel and had a good outing against Clemson winning 34-13. The first half of the Capital One bowl against Nebraska was sloppy and close, but the Gamecocks scored the only points of the second half to win 30-13.

2012 Outlook

South Carolina 2012 schedule & forecast
8/30	Thu	@	*Vanderbilt	38%	L
9/8	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	94%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	UAB	99%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	60%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Kentucky	89%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	50%	L
10/13	Sat	@	*LSU	14%	L
10/20	Sat	@	*Florida	47%	L
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	71%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	50%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	Wofford	97%	W
11/24	Sat	@	Clemson	49%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 93%

 

The close games will decide whether this is just another good season or a great one. Right now our projection leans toward "just good."

The opener at Vanderbilt could be a loss. Don't give up on the team if it is, since Vandy is our surprise top 25 pick this year. A win would actually be a good case that the Gamecocks are going to be something special. The next two games tell us nothing. Then comes another revealing game: Missouri at home. Go 4-0 at this point (5-0, as they should beat Kentucky) and the team is probably very good.

Then over the final 7 games there are 4 essential tossups: Georgia, at Florida, Arkansas, and at Clemson. Win all four and this could be a season to remember. Lose all four and the Gamecocks might not go to a bowl game.

Actually, even if they lose all four they should still go to a bowl game, but they're little leeway. Game-by-game we give the Gamecocks just one win of the four for a 7-5 record. The cumulative projection of course splits it 2 and 2, and they get an 8-4 projected record out of it. But win every moderate probability game on the chart and South Carolina is 11-1 with a loss to LSU.

If they finish 8-4 and are the #5 team in the SEC, they'll go to the Outback Bowl against a Big Ten team. Since Ohio State is skipped over and the Big Ten usually has two BCS teams, their opponent could be Purdue.

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