2012 Pre-season Rankings: #8 Oregon Ducks

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Oregon Ducks  (Pac-12 #2; North #1)

#8	2011 Results	Record: 12-2	Strength:#4  Success:#8  Overall:#4
		AP #4  USA #4	Bowl: Beat Wisconsin 45-38 (Rose Bowl)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #5; Athlon #4; Steele #6
		AP NR USA NR	Bowl: Rose Bowl (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Oregon keeps rolling along despite big losses on offense, the sign of a top program.

Offense 4 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #3 (raw) #2 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #5 (adjusted)

Last year's offense was the 2nd best in the nation, and this year's should still be in the top ten despite losing Darron Thomas and LaMichael James.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #69 (raw) #49 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #8
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #79 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #9

Darron Thomas wasn't the most prolific passer—he wasn't supposed to be in this offense—but he had 2,761 passing yards and 33 touchdowns with just 7 interceptions—about as good as can be expected. He left early and redshirt freshman Marcus Mariota has been named the starter, and he's another QB who can run the ball which Oregon's offense has thrived on since Dennis Dixon. Two of the four main receivers are back including #1 DeAnthony Thomas (605 yards, 9 TDs) while Lavasier Tuinei (599, 10 TDs) is gone. Further, four of five who had between 100 and 200 yards are back, too. It's hard to imagine Mariota matching Thomas' efficiency, but then again who expected Thomas to replace Jeremiah Masoli so perfectly? We're guessing the passing numbers drop this time.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #5 (raw) #4 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #3 (adj.)

Oregon's offense is geared toward the run, and they've had a series of great backs, the latest of whom is LaMichael James who had 1,805 yards and 18 touchdowns last year. Though he's gone, two other greats are waiting in the wings and have already shown they are capable: Kenjon Barner (939 yards, 11 touchdowns last year) and all-purpose runner De'Anthony Thomas (595 yards, 7 TDs). QB Thomas had 206 net and from the way it sounds, Mariota should have at least that. The offensive line returns three full-time starters, Carson York, Nick Cody, and Hroniss Grasu and should be just as good. Barner should have over 1,500 yards and Thomas might not be too far behind as he averaged 10.8 yards per carry this year!

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #50    Pass Defense  per-game: #29   Per-attempt: #5
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #54 (raw) #25 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #3	'11 picks: #23
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #22 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #7	'12 picks: #12

The rush defense was Oregon's relative weakness, but with three of four starters back on the defensive line (when in 4-3 mode) it should be much less of one. Their amazing pass rush (45 sacks last year) will still be strong but maybe not top 5; although hybrid end/LB Dion Jordan (7.5 sacks) is back they lose Terrell Turner, and at linebacker Josh Kaddu (6.5 sacks) is gone, too. Michael Clay (102 tackles) does return at linebacker, but Dewitt Stuckey is gone so on the whole the LB unit is weaker. The secondary loses two starters including Eddie Pleasant (8 pass breakups) but Terrance Mitchell (10 pass breakups) is back along with #1 tackler John Boyett (108 tackles). Overall the defense is perhaps a touch better.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Alejandro Maldonado (7 of 12 FG last year) will try to hold onto the placekicking job as Rob Beard (10 of 13 in 2010) comes back from injury. The missed field goal against USC still stings Oregon fans. Punter Jackson Rice (45.9 average) is back too.
• Return Game:  After a slow start due to a critical fumble against LSU DeAnthony Thomas had a great year returning kicks, with two touchdowns on kickoffs (27.3 average). LaMichael James was primary punt returner and he had a touchdown, too (10.7 average). Barner will take over on punts and it will again be a feared unit.
• Turnovers projection:  Perhaps Darron Thomas' most impressive stat was his 7 interceptions, and freshman Mariota might have double that.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #11          2011 Recruiting Rank: #13
Chip Kelly came through with another great recruiting class, ranking #3 in the Pac-12 and full of consensus blue chips. It was one such player from 2010, Lache Seastrunk, whose recruitment has caused the NCAA to look closer at aspects of the Oregon program, and there's a chance the Ducks won't be allowed to go to a bowl game or Pac-12 title game if sanctions are announced. Seastrunk ended up at Baylor without playing a down for the Ducks.

2011 Recap
Oregon's 2010 season ended in disappointment with a loss to Auburn. Their 2011 season began with a disappointing loss to LSU. Both games found Oregon unable to execute their ground game, getting held to 75 yards against Auburn and 95 against LSU. The Ducks rebounded with monstrous output and at least 40 points against their next six opponents. They had just 34 against Washington but 53 on Stanford, handing the Cardinal their only loss. They lost at home to USC however, missing a last-second field goal that would have tied it. Still, the Ducks won the North division of the Pac-12 and beat UCLA for the Rose Bowl berth, and that's where they would have gone even if they'd defeated the Trojans. The Rose Bowl against Wisconsin was a wild affair that ended in a 45-38 Oregon win.

2012 Outlook

Oregon 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	97%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	97%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	100%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	96%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Washington State	90%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Washington	91%	W
10/18	Thu	@	*Arizona State	90%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	99%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*USC	22%	L
11/10	Sat	@	*California	78%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	66%	W
11/24	Sat	@	*Oregon State	83%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  undefeated: 6%

 

According to our numbers, there aren't a whole lot of different possible results for the Ducks' 2012 season. The most common outcome, 10-2 is a whopping 37% chance, with 11-1 a 31% chance. That means those two outcomes are more than 2/3 likely. Throw in 9-3 (20%), 8-4 (6%), and 12-0 (6%) and that's about it. Okay, 7-5 is a 1% chance (numbers add up to 101% due to rounding).

Looking at their schedule it's easy to see why the charts are tilted to the right. The Ducks are a 90%+ favorite in their first 8 games, with Washington State and Arizona State on the road the biggest hurdles.

Then they play USC in Pasadena, their only designated loss, and a pretty likely one, too. Then it's back to winning but the games are all tougher than what preceded the USC game.

There are two traps here: One, that the Ducks fall victim to overconfidence in the first eight games. Particularly in looking ahead to USC, which might happen by week 5. Second, if they lose to USC the disappointment could be palpable and affect the later games, all of which will be at least somewhat challenging. The simple solution: beat USC so that there is no letdown.

The other trap is if sanctions are announced concerning the program, and suddenly they have no post-season to play for. But at the present time there's no indication of that. We're assuming that if the Ducks finish #2 in the Pac-12, they'll go to the Rose Bowl (as USC is likely bound for the BCS title game) and face a Big Ten team—we're thinking Michigan.

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