2012 Pre-season Rankings: #10 Oklahoma State Cowboys

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Oklahoma State Cowboys  (Big Twelve #3)

#10	2011 Results	Record: 12-1	Strength:#2  Success:#3  Overall:#3
		AP #3  USA #3	Bowl: Beat Stanford 41-38 OT (Fiesta)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #16; Athlon #19; Steele #12
		AP #19  USA #19	Bowl: Cotton (Eligibility odds: 99%)

The last time Oklahoma State had to replace their all-time leading passer and superstar wide receiver they got even better.

Offense 4 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #2 (raw) #1 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #9 (adjusted)

With Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon gone, Joseph Randle might be the star of the offense.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #2 (raw) #3 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #5
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #31 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #6

Who is the bigger loss to the passing game, Brandon Weeden (72% completions, 4,727 yards, 37 touchdowns, 13 int)? Or Justin Blackmon (122 receptions, 1,522 yards, 18 touchdowns)? We'll never know since they're both gone, along with #2 receiver Josh Cooper (715 yards). But at least the offense has receiver Tracy Moore (672 yards) and three others who had over 250 yards back. At quarterback they'll be starting a true freshman, Wes Lunt, who must be good because he beat out backup Clint Chelf who has experience running the system and completed 69% with 5 TDs and 1 int the last two years. The offensive line was incredible last year allowing just 12 sacks vs. nearly 600 attempts. Pretty much everyone figures the passing game is going to be de-emphasized slightly, so the decline is a bit deeper than what we'd normally see within Gundy's system which always seems to put up big yardage.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #52 (raw) #44 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #25 (adj.)

Lost due to the attention surrounding the passing game, Joseph Randle quietly rushed for 1,216 and 24 touchdowns in 2011. Jeremy Smith added 646 (9 TDs) and though they lose Herschel Sims (242 yards; transferred after legal problems) it could be time for the running backs to shine. The offensive line loses three starters plus part-time starter Mike Mustafa who left in the summer; Lane Taylor is back with half-time starter Parker Graham and 2010 starter Jonathan Rush (knee injury last year). Assuming there's a bit more of a running slant to the offense at least early on, Randle and Smith could both put up big numbers.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #68    Pass Defense  per-game: #68   Per-attempt: #10
Defense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #63 (raw) #18 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #20	'11 picks: #1
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #13 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #24	'12 picks: #1

Oklahoma State had 24 interceptions last year and 2/3 of them are back, so look for the team to be #1 again (adjusted for opponent's rate of picks) even if they won't reach last year's total. The key players are cornerbacks Broderick Brown (15 pass breakups, 5 interceptions) and Justin Gilbert (10, 5). They're back in the secondary along with #1 tackler Daytawion Lowe while Markelle Martin (11 pass breakups) departs.

With Jamie Blatnick (8 sacks) gone the pass rush will be a bit weaker but two starters are back on the defensive line and all three at linebacker so the rush defense should improve. Last year's defense ranked as "average" in raw points yielded, but the Cowboys played four out of the top 11 teams in raw scoring offense and when corrected for that they were a top 25 defense. Their adjusted ranking should climb a bit further.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker/punter Quinn Sharp (22 of 25 field goals last year, and 46.3 average) is one of the best special teams players in the nation, and he's back.
• Return Game:  Justin Gilbert took two kickoff returns back for touchdowns last year; he's back and Josh Stewart will succeed Josh Cooper (3.9 average) as main punt returner.
• Turnovers projection:  Oklahoma State's turnover margin last year was so remarkable that people have been using it, and it alone, as a reason that their fall will be bigger than expected. They have a point: the Cowboys' fumble margin alone was an amazing +10, so even if they manage a strong +5 this year it's a downgrade. In terms of interceptions thrown, we can only imagine a true freshman will throw several more than Weeden. And the defense will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's 24, though most of those players are back. All this adds up to maybe 1 turnover a game less than last year, which is around 4 points. Per game.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #31          2011 Recruiting Rank: #18
Mike Gundy is building a powerhouse program in Stillwater and has taken the first step by proving that his good results weren't the fluke result of a few good players. This year's recruiting class ranks in the top half of the conference once again. Not close to Texas or Oklahoma, though; that's the next step.

2011 Recap
It took a while for Oklahoma State to prove it was really among the elite, i.e. top five in college football. Beating Louisiana-Lafayette wasn't a big deal as nothing was expected of the Cajuns, and they even scored 34 points which at the time demonstrated that the Cowboys couldn't play defense. ULL finished 8-4 and won a bowl game, however. The Arizona and Tulsa blowouts were expected, and while the win over A&M was good, the Aggies blew a big lead again. Scoring 70 on Kansas was typical, and beating Texas by 12 just after Oklahoma had done the job by 38 didn't set the world on fire. Missouri had 3 losses already when the Cowboys beat them, and running up 59 on Baylor's poor defense was no big deal. Kansas State? Again, they beat a team by 7 that Oklahoma had destroyed earlier.

By the time of the 66-6 Texas Tech blowout, however, the merit of their accomplishments was becoming clear. Seven of those victims would be in bowl games, and Tech had beaten Oklahoma while other undefeated teams had fallen. So Oklahoma State went into Ames as a likely national title participant. They left a 37-31 double overtime loser. Was it because of the bad news they heard of coaching colleagues' deaths in a plane crash? We'll never know. But the national title dream was over. They still had unfinished business, i.e. winning the Big Twelve title. They beat Oklahoma worse than they've beaten the Sooners in over 60 years, and almost convinced enough voters to put them #2 to slip into the title game...but not quite. Instead they went to the Fiesta Bowl and beat Stanford; with a game that close, they at least proved they had the better kicker. The Cowboys finished the year 12-1.

2012 Outlook

Oklahoma State 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Savannah State	100%	W
9/8	Sat	@	Arizona	87%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	97%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Texas	52%	W
10/13	Sat	@	*Kansas	95%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	86%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*TCU	78%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Kansas State	60%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	72%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	83%	W
11/24	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	20%	L
12/1	Sat	@	*Baylor	70%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

Oklahoma State plays only two teams ranked ahead of them, Texas and Oklahoma, and they get the former at home which could make them the winner of that one.

If they are, and they take care of business everywhere else (easier said than done), then in late November they'll have a huge showdown at Oklahoma with a Sooner team that will be bent on revenge. That will be a very tough game, and looks like a certain loss, capping the Cowboys' realistic expectations this year at 11-1. Which isn't bad at all for a team that loses such key players.

More likely though they'll finish at 9-3, give or take a win. There are enough games that should be easy to make them a 99% lock for a bowl game, but it's hard to tell how the offense will do. If Wes Lunt plays like a freshman it could be a long year. If the transition goes as well as Zac Robinson/Dez Bryant to Weeden/Blackmon, then maybe they have a shot at an undefeated year.

If the Cowboys do finsh #3 in the conference they'll go to the Cotton Bowl (Assuming Oklahoma and Texas in BCS bowls) and play an SEC team such as Arkansas.

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