2012 Pre-season Rankings: #18 Ohio State Buckeyes

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Ohio State Buckeyes  (Big Ten #4; Leaders #2)

#18	2011 Results	Record: 6-7	Strength:#37  Success:#47  Overall:#40
		AP NR USA NR	Bowl: Lost to Florida 24-17 (Gator Bowl)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #14; Athlon #6; Steele #10
		AP #18 USA N/A	Bowl: None (Ineligible for post-season)

Like everyone else, we're predicting a big turnaround season for the Buckeyes, though not quite dramatic as some are. Our analysis really doesn't take into account the hiring of Urban Meyer as coach—other than the resultant incredible recruiting class—so we would expect it pretty much regardless of head coach.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #84 (raw) #62 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #36 (adjusted)

Last year's stagnant offense will get an injection from Meyer's spread offense, and more significantly he's going no-huddle with aspirations of running 85 plays a game. He won't get there but a faster tempo will put more points on the board, and luckily he has a defense that can absorb the extra drives that will be granted to the opposition.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #119 (raw) #113 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #118
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #85 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #120

Last year's passing game was simply pathetic, and beyond pathetic for a BCS school. Meyer will have the team throwing far more attempts (they had fewer than 250 last year). The team hit a low with 35 yards against Miami and topped it (or lowered it?) with a 1 in 4, 17 yard performance against Illinois (in a win!). Without Tyrelle Pryor for the whole season, Joe Bauserman had 492 yards (5 TDs, 1 int) before Braxton Miller took over and had 1,159 yards, 13 TDs and 4 picks. Bauserman is gone and Miller will improve his chops as every receiver is back except DeVier Posey who only had 162 yards last year. The top three—Devin Smith, Corey Brown, and Jake Stoneburner—had just 14 catches each and a combined 692 yards. The offensive line allowed a horrible 46 sacks—even more horrible when you take into account the low number of attempts (almost 1 in every 6 attempts resulted in a sack). The line will be better but with a lot more plays and a lot more passing, the sacks will still be abundant. The passing game will dig itself out of a deep hole but don't expect greatness.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #28 (raw) #22 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #56 (adj.)

QB Braxton Miller led with 715 yards last year, while Dan Herron had 675 in the last seven games of his senior year after his suspension ended. Carlos Hyde (566) and Jordan Hall (408) filled in well early and will do a good job in taking over this year. The offensive line has full-time starters Andrew Norwell and Jack Mewhort back along with part-time starter Marcus Hall. With more passing comes less running, and Miller will be doing a lot more of the former and less of the latter. It's not that Meyer doesn't like to run a lot, he does—but not 70% of the time like OSU did last year. Production will depend on how many plays Meyer ends up squeezing out of the offense, but we see a less productive running game though it will still outshine the passing game.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #32    Pass Defense  per-game: #19   Per-attempt: #30
Defense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #27 (raw) #20 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #67	'11 picks: #31
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #28 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #29	'12 picks: #25

The defense was solid in 2011 despite the team's woes, and it will be even better this year—which is a good thing because they'll have to be to offset the extra drives that will be produced by Meyer's hurry-up offense.

Last year's squad only totalled 23 sacks but almost every one is accounted for on this year's squad, led by John Simon's 7, so we see a big increase this year and a much stronger pass rush. Simon is one of three starters back on the defensive line as Adam Bellamy recently left the team. They are hoping to get 2010 starter Nathan Williams back early in the season, but reports are conflicting; we assume he will be back at some point. Johnathan Hankins (8 tackles for loss) is also back so the D-line will be strong regardless. At linebacker they lose two starters including Andrew Sweat but the secondary is loaded with four starters back including top tackler C.J. Barnett and Christian Bryant (8 pass breakups). The team will probably give up more points but the D will actually be stronger.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Drew Basil (16 of 19 field goals) and punter Ben Buchanan (41.3) are both back.
• Return Game:  Jordan Hall will continue to return both kickoffs (26.3 average) and punts (5.8) while Chris Fields (1 touchdown return on a punt last year) will presumably fill in while Hall is out with injury for the first few games.
• Turnovers projection:  The team's passing woes had one silver lining last year: only 5 interceptions thrown. With many more attempts and more production this year, it's bound to exceed that by quite a bit.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #2          2011 Recruiting Rank: #14
Normally a coaching change means a worse recruiting year than the one before, but for some reason there was an exception this time as Ohio State went from interim coach Luke Fickell to 2-time national championship winner Urban Meyer. The future looks bright for OSU's D-line as several of the very top recruits were linemen, including 5-star recruits Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington.

2011 Recap
At the end of 2010, the plan for 2011 was: get through the early, easier games somehow without Terrelle Pryor and company, then with his return for the Nebraska game coast to a Big Ten Leaders division title and Rose Bowl berth. But Pryor defected from the team and coach Jim Tressel was fired, and worse, Joe Bauserman proved very inadequate. The offense struggled against Toledo and had just 35 passing yards in the loss to Miami. After the Michigan State and Nebraska losses, and the delay of Bam Herron and DeVier Posey's return, many wondered if the Buckeyes would even reach bowl eligibility. The rest of the team still had talent, however, especially on defense, and they handed Illinois their first loss and then upset Wisconsin. The Indiana win made them 6-3 and bowl eligible. But that was the last win of the season. They were upset by Purdue in overtime, dropped a close game to Penn State, and lost to Michigan for the first time since 2003. They dropped the Gator bowl to the Gators, 24-17, for a losing record—OSU's first in 45 years.

2012 Outlook

Ohio State 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	86%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	74%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	California	75%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	UAB	99%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Michigan State	47%	L
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	57%	W
10/13	Sat	@	*Indiana	94%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	84%	W
10/27	Sat	@	*Penn State	78%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	78%	W
11/17	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	26%	L
11/24	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	37%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%*

 

We are predicting what everyone else is, a turnaround season for the Buckeyes. We pick them as the favorite in 9 games and the cumulative odds just barely reduce that to 8-4.

Winning should start right away with Miami of Ohio, though there will still be some players missing in week 2 (and maybe 3) to make the UCF and Cal games closer. UAB will be a blowout.

With these games as warmups and a few decent tests, they're ready to take on Michigan State, but probably aren't ready to win that one on the road. It should be close. They can, however, beat Nebraska at home. The Buckeyes will probably be 1-1 in those two.

Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, and Illinois should all be wins, then the last two are the toughest two games. By that time, however, Ohio State might have grown into its skin and be capable of winning one or both. But either way they won't be going to the Big Ten title game or a bowl game due to NCAA sanctions. Urban Meyer will have to wait till next year to try for his third national championship.

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