2012 Pre-season Rankings: #14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Notre Dame Fighting Irish  (Independent #1)

#14	2011 Results	Record: 8-5	Strength:#18  Success:#32  Overall:#19
		AP NR USA #36	Bowl: Lost to FSU 18-14 (Champs Sports)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #33; Athlon #20; Steele #19
		AP #26  USA #24	Bowl: Belk Bowl (Eligibility odds: 97%)

For the second year running we are picking Notre Dame to have a really solid season. Now that everyone's forgotten about them it might actually happen.

Offense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #49 (raw) #28 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #27 (adjusted)

The offense was good but erratic last year. With another new quarterback, the Irish might still run hot and cold.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #40 (raw) #36 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #17
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #22 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #18

Tommy Rees was Notre Dame's quarterback du jour last year, passing for 2,871 yards and 20 touchdowns but throwing 14 interceptions. 2009's QB du jour Dayne Crist transferred setting up a battle between Rees and backup Andrew Hendrix (249 yards) that was won by redshirt freshman Everett Golson. Whoever actually plays will be without Michael Floyd (1,147 yards, 9 TDs) but the rest of the group is back including tight end Tyler Eifert (803) and three others with over 200 yards. However Brian Kelly juggles the quarterbacks he usually gets a good result.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #56 (raw) #42 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #41 (adj.)

Cierre Wood, who had 1,102 yards and 9 touchdowns last year, is back. At least, after he serves a 2-game suspension. Since Jonas Gray (791 yards, 12 TDs) is gone, they'll be down to WR/RB Theo Riddick who had just 63 last year but has always had great potential. After Navy and Purdue Wood should reclaim his starting role and the team's ground game will be about the same as last year. The offensive line returns three starters: Braxston Cave, Zack Martin, and Chris Watt.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #15    Pass Defense  per-game: #46   Per-attempt: #24
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #24 (raw) #11 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #52	'11 picks: #84
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #19 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #54	'12 picks: #106

Four of the team's top five tacklers are gone, meaning the defense may be weaker despite returning six starters. The defensive line essentially returns two starters to the 3-4, but they lose sacks leader Aaron Lynch (5.5 sacks). Manti Te'o had 5 sacks among his 128 tackles and he's back along with two other starting linebackers while Darius Fleming departs. The secondary is hit hard as starters Harrison Smith (10 pass breakups), Robert Blanton, and Gary Gray are gone. Further, projected starter Lo Wood is out with an Achilles' tendon injury, and backup safety Austin Collinsworth could be out for the season too. Naturally we see the pass defense taking most of the hit but overall the defense is still strong.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  David Ruffer exits on an off year with 10 of 16 field goals—he was 23 of 24 in '10 and '11—and Nick Tausch (14 of 17 in 2009) will probably take the job while Kyle Brindza continues to handle kickoffs. Punter Ben Turk (40.3 average) is back.
• Return Game:  George Atkinson was marvellous on kickoff returns with two touchdowns and a 26.1 yard average. On the other hand, John Goodman had 5 yards on 8 punt returns—a 0.6 yard average. Needless to say he's being replaced, probably by Theo Riddick.
• Turnovers projection:  Notre Dame had terrible luck with fumbles last year—and not just the -6 fumble margin (lost 12, gained 6). They had goal-line fumbles returned for touchdowns by both USF and USC. Their fumble margin shouldn't be as bad, plus the QBs probably won't throw 17 interceptions this year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #27          2011 Recruiting Rank: #11
Brian Kelly is in year three, when great thing are expected from coaches (and often delivered). Notre Dame has been waiting for a great season—11 or more wins—since 1993, and for a just plain "very good" season—9 or more wins—since Charlie Weis' 3-9 debacle in 2007. Brian Kelly has had two 8-5 years in a row, and he's had none of the "Luck of the Irish" that Notre Dame is so famous for. In the off-season he had to deal with his quarterback (Rees) drunkenly assaulting a police officer (1 game suspension) and Kelly himself had surgery for a herniated disc. This year's recruiting class is decent but one of the biggest catches—corner Tee Shepard—left school in March. The Irish did get Gunner Kiel, the nation's top quarterback recruit, who originally committed to Indiana.

2011 Recap
Notre Dame's promising 2011 season turned ugly right away at home against South Florida. The Irish turned the ball over several times, including once when they were knocking on the door and USF returned the fumble for a touchdown. That ended up being the difference in the game. They led Michigan 24-7 but Denard Robinson led an incredible comeback capped by a last-few-seconds touchdown pass. Just like that, Notre Dame was forgotten again on the national scene. Their next four games weren't all that impressive at the time, but in retrospect they beat four bowl teams including a top 25 Michigan State squad, and beat all but Pitt soundly. They repeated their goal-line-fumble to opponent-touchdown trick against USC, another 14-point swing in a 31-17 game. The Irish embarked on another 4-game winning streak, this time against less impressive opposition, and marched into Stanford with an 8-3 record. They were outplayed by the Cardinal but not completely embarrassed, and it was one of their better defensive efforts to hold Andrew Luck's team to 28 points. Overall the defense was fairly consistent but the offense was either well above-average (31 at Michigan, 31 vs. MSU, 38 at Purdue, 59 vs. Air Force, 56 vs. Navy, 45 at Maryland) or pathetic (20 vs. USF, 15 at Pitt, 17 vs. USC, 24 at Wake, 16 at B.C., 14 at Stanford); there was no in-between.

2012 Outlook

Notre Dame 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Navy	94%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Purdue	85%	W
9/15	Sat	@	Michigan State	56%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	Michigan	45%	L
10/6	Sat	vs.	Miami (Florida)	90%	W
10/13	Sat	vs.	Stanford	53%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	BYU	83%	W
10/27	Sat	@	Oklahoma	15%	L
11/3	Sat	vs.	Pittsburgh	86%	W
11/10	Sat	@	Boston College	83%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	Wake Forest	93%	W
11/24	Sat	@	USC	13%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 97%

 

Notre Dame should have that elusive 9-win season this year. Either by going 9-3, as we have them game-by-game, or by going 8-4 (per the cumulative projection) and winning their bowl game. The most clear path to 9-3 includes beating both Michigan State on the road and Stanford at home. It's more likely that they win one of those and finish 8-4.

What about the truly elusive 11-win season, is it possible? Maybe. But with games at Oklahoma and USC, it's very doubtful they can go 11-1 in the regular season. They'll need to go 10-2 and win a bowl game. So now they also need to beat Michigan, a game that's pretty close to being a tossup as it's played in South Bend.

Other than the games mentioned the Irish shouldn't have a lot of trouble. Navy probably isn't great this year and playing in Dublin makes it a home game, Purdue is a home game, Miami in Chicago is a home game, BYU is a home game, Pitt is a home game, Boston College isn't a huge threat, and Wake Forest is a home game.

Make no mistake, the schedule is tough since there aren't really any bad teams on it. But Notre Dame should be good enough this year to win nine games one way or another. Eleven wins is going to have to wait. 10-2 would get the Irish to a BCS bowl but we don't have them doing that, so they'll have to settle for the Belk Bowl I guess, taking the place of a Big East team.

More Previews • Full coverage of all 124 FBS teams
SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124