2012 Pre-season Rankings: #15 Nebraska Cornhuskers

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Nebraska Cornhuskers  (Big Ten #3; Legends #2)

#15	2011 Results	Record: 9-4	Strength:#24  Success:#22  Overall:#25
		AP #24  USA #24	Bowl: Lost to S. Carolina 30-13 (Capital One)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #25; Athlon #14; Steele #16
		AP #17  USA #16	Bowl: Capital One (Eligibility odds: 99%)

Nebraska will be stronger this year, but probably not quite strong enough to contend for the national title or even be favored for the Big Ten crown.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #50 (raw) #31 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #18 (adjusted)

The main pieces are back on the offense, they just have to take it to the proverbial next level.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #107 (raw) #98 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #51
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #77 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #54

After experiencing some growing pains during his freshman and sophomore years Taylor Martinez is back to lead the Husker offense. Last year he increased his yardage to 2,089 yards and touchdowns to 13, with 8 interceptions. His completion percentage fell a bit to 56%. Seven of last year's top eight receivers are back, including the top three led by Kenny Bell (461 yards). Martinez should top his numbers again.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #15 (raw) #14 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #6 (adj.)

Nebraska was again a running powerhouse behind Rex Burkhead (1,357 yards, 15 touchdowns) and Martinez (874, 9). Three more had around 100 yards but basically it's a 1-2 punch. Spencer Long is back on the o-line with half-time starters Andrew Rodriguez and Seung Hoon Choi, as well as 2010 starter Jeremiah Sirles; part-time starter Tyler Moore was back too but he left due to personal issues. Nebraska could have a top ten rushing game in 2012.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #55    Pass Defense  per-game: #22   Per-attempt: #45
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #44 (raw) #35 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #93	'11 picks: #66
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #32 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #84	'12 picks: #75

Nebraska's defense slipped a lot last year and it won't get back to where it was right away, not when they lose LaVonte David who had 133 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Two starting linebackers return including Will Compton, but it's not the same without NFL-bound David. The defensive line loses star Jared Crick (also NFL-bound) but he played less than half of last season; with three starters back including Cameron Meredith (5 sacks) the D-line will be stronger this year. The secondary loses two starters including Alfonzo Dennard (NFL) but Daimion Stafford (10 pass break ups) is back. Despite losing three players to the NFL the defense will be just as good this year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Brett Maher is back for his senior year after making 19 of 23 field goals and averaging 44.5 yards per punt last year. He is truly one of Nebraska's most valuable players.
• Return Game:  Ameer Abdullah is also doubly valuable to the team as the 'Huskers top kick returner (29.3 average, 1 touchdown) and punt returner (7.1 average). WR Jamaal Turner will field punts as well.
• Turnovers projection:  Nebraska's turnover margin might be slightly improved (fewer fumbles and interceptions thrown) but it's hard to say, and probably not by too much.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #44          2011 Recruiting Rank: #29
Bo Pelini has already been at Nebraska for four years, hard to believe. He's had two 9-win and two 10-win seasons so far, which is almost good enough for Nebraska football. He's not in danger right now, but remember how John Cooper got fired from Ohio State for going 9-3 three years in a row? I think 10-3 is the new 9-3, so Pelini better have an 11-win season sometime soon.

2011 Recap
The first sign that Nebraska's defense was once again fading away from the "Blackshirts" ideal came against Fresno State, who scored 29. Washington put up 38 in game 3, and then Wisconsin kicked the door wide open by scoring 48 points in a lop-sided win. The defense wasn't any better against Ohio State but the offense did enough to win 34-27. Against Michigan State, the D was at its best, holding the Spartans to three points, but the offense let the team down against Northwestern at home in a huge 28-25 upset that cost the Cornhuskers the spot in the Big Ten title game. They beat Penn State 17-14 but were shredded at Michigan 45-17 similar to the Wisconsin rout. Again, they came back strong at home, beating Iowa 20-7 in another great defensive performance. The Cornhuskers normally only played to their potential on offense OR defense; if they did both, they'd be a great team. Arguably they only played well on both sides of the ball against Chattanooga, Wyoming, Minnesota, and Michigan State. They played poorly on both sides in the second half of the 30-13 loss to South Carolina.

2012 Outlook

Nebraska 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	85%	W
9/8	Sat	@	UCLA	69%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	92%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	100%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	44%	L
10/6	Sat	@	*Ohio State	45%	L
10/20	Sat	@	*Northwestern	86%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	40%	L
11/3	Sat	@	*Michigan State	51%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	90%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	94%	W
11/23	Fri	@	*Iowa	74%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

Nebraska again looks like one of the Big Ten's best teams, but a few key games could go against them based on the location.

The Cornhuskers play a challenging pre-conference schedule with C-USA winner Southern Miss, an improved UCLA on the road, and Sun Belt champ Arkansas State. After a breather (2-9 Idaho State), four of their next five games are critical.

First Wisconsin at home and Ohio State on the road. If they had the Badgers on the road and the Buckeyes at home they'd be favored in one game; instead they are slight underdogs in both. Michigan and Michigan State are better situated, so that they might beat the Spartans but it's a tossup.

The last three games should be comfortable wins and the 'Huskers should be about 9-3. If they end up #3 in the Big Ten, assuming two BCS teams from the league as usual, they'll go back to the Capital one and face another SEC team, maybe Georgia.

But the losses are all close so going undefeated isn't unrealistic, although it would take a lot of focus and some luck; we give it a 1% chance. Going 10-2 or better is about a 29% chance. That and a bowl victory would get Pelini that elusive 11-win season that should bring around more of the faithful.

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