SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124
| Missouri Tigers (SEC #7; East #4) |
 #20 |
2011 Results |
Record: 8-5 | Strength:#15 Success:#26 Overall:#22 |
| AP #29 USA #27 | Bowl: Beat North Carolina 41-24 (Independence) |
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| 2012 Outlook |
Record: 8-4 | Picks: Lindy's #30; Athlon #31; Steele #26 |
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| AP #38 USA #43 |
Bowl: Gator (Eligibility odds: 93%) |
Missouri moves to the SEC and should do just about as well as they did in the Big Twelve.
| Offense 5 RS |
'11 Scoring Offense: #30 (raw) #24 (adjusted for competition) |
| '12 Projected Scoring Offense: #35 (adjusted) |
James Franklin will be back but Henry Josey probably won't be.
| Passing Game |
'11 Passing Rank: #64 (raw) #66 (adjusted) | '11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #25 |
| '12 Projected Passing Rank: #64 (adjusted) |
'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #33 |
Quarterback James Franklin had a breakout sophomore year with 2,865 passing yards and 21 touchdowns (11 interceptions) and of course, nearly 1,000 rushing yards. The passing game returns three of last year's top receivers, with #1 T.J. Moe (649) present but #2 Michael Egnew (523) gone. The offensive line's protection may slip a bit as three starters depart. Overall things here look about the same as the running game is Mizzou's offensive focus.
| Rushing | '11 Rushing Rank: #9 (raw) #11 (adjusted) | '11 Projected Rushing Rank: #15 (adj.) |
When Franklin wasn't passing or running the ball himself, he handed off to Henry Josey who ran for 1,168 yards and 8 touchdowns with an 8.1 per-carry average. Franklin was 2nd with 981, and Kendial Lawrence added 566. With Josey likely redshirting to complete his knee rehab Lawrence will become the focus. The offensive line has one full-time starter back, Justin Britt, and half-timer Jack Meiners while another half-timer, Travis Ruth, recently injured a tricep and is out for the year. 2010 starter Elvis Fisher was granted a sixth year, however, and that helps. Without Josey—who still might return some time this year—the running game slips but is still potent with Franklin at QB and Lawrence at RB.
| '11 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #30 Pass Defense per-game: #55 Per-attempt: #18 | ||
| Defense 5 RS |
'11 Scoring Defense: #46 (raw) #13 (adjusted) | '11 sacks: #66 | '11 picks: #36 |
| '12 Projected Scoring Defense: #14 (adjusted) |
'12 sacks: #63 | '12 picks: #28 | |
Missouri's rushing defense will be tested in the SEC more than it was in the Big Twelve. Last year it was solid but three starters are gone from the defensive line including Jacquies Smith who had 5 sacks. At linebacker Luke Lambert (11.5 tackles for loss) departs but #1 tackler Andrew Wilson is back with Zavier Gooden and Will Ebner is back from medical redshirt. E.J. Gaines (16 pass breakups) is back on the secondary while Kenji Jackson is gone. The defense should be roughly as good as last year, but the key is the rushing defense holding up.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Punter Trey Barrow (44.8 yard average) took over as placekicker last year too, making 7 of 9 after Grant Ressel had missed 7 of 16. Barrow will perform both duties this year.
- Return Game: Receiver T.J. Moe will field kickoffs again (23.3 average last year) and E.J. Gaines is back to field punts after averaging 10.9 per return with one touchdown take-back. Gahn McGaffie had a touchdown return against Oklahoma in 2010 and will also contribute on kickoffs.
- Turnovers projection: We don't see much changing in terms of turnovers for the Tigers.
Coaching/Recruiting 2012 Recruiting Rank: #43 2011 Recruiting Rank: #68
Both Missouri and Texas A&M had better recruiting classes during their transition to the SEC, and A&M had a coaching change. It seems that recruits like the idea of playing in that conference, as most of both teams' recruits came from their traditional hunting grounds. Unfortunately for the Tigers this year's class ranks near the bottom of the SEC, but they did get Dorial-Green Beckham from Springfield, Missouri, who is not only the #1 receiver prospect but to many the #1 prospect in the nation, period.
2011 Recap
Missouri had the misfortune of being a good team during a great year for
the Big Twelve. After five games they were 2-3, losing close contests to
two top 25 teams (Oklahoma, Kansas State) and in overtime to another
(Arizona State) that was playing very well at the time. After nine games they were
4-5, with losses to two more Top 25 teams. The schedule eased a bit and
they won their last three to finish 7-5. During the middle of the season they faced seven bowl teams in a row
and went 3-4, beating Iowa State by a lot, Texas A&M by a little in
overtime, and shutting down Texas 17-5. Missouri's overall play was fairly consistent, but this is
mostly due to consistency on defense. The offense was all over the place and trended lower after the loss of Josey for the season in game 10 against Texas. The Tigers showed that their offense could pack a punch without Josey as they beat North Carolina, 41-24, in the Independence Bowl.
2012 Outlook
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Missouri 2012 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/1 | Sat | vs. | SE Louisiana | 100% | W | |||
| 9/8 | Sat | vs. | *Georgia | 60% | W | |||
| 9/15 | Sat | vs. | Arizona State | 88% | W | |||
| 9/22 | Sat | @ | *South Carolina | 40% | L | |||
| 9/29 | Sat | @ | Central Florida | 64% | W | |||
| 10/6 | Sat | vs. | *Vanderbilt | 58% | W | |||
| 10/13 | Sat | vs. | *Alabama | 20% | L | |||
| 10/27 | Sat | vs. | *Kentucky | 95% | W | |||
| 11/3 | Sat | @ | *Florida | 45% | L | |||
| 11/10 | Sat | @ | *Tennessee | 53% | W | |||
| 11/17 | Sat | vs. | Syracuse | 93% | W | |||
| 11/24 | Sat | @ | *Texas A&M | 43% | L | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 93%
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After a gimme against Southeastern Louisiana it's into the SEC fire for the Tigers in a game that will tell a lot about both teams' fortunes. We're taking Missouri at home but a Georgia win would surprise no one.
The Tigers should beat Arizona State this year, and UCF and Vanderbilt are close wins, but South Carolina on the road and Alabama at home will be tough. Kentucky looks like an easy win, as does Syracuse in their last non-conference match, while Florida, Tennesee, and Texas A&M are tossups.
All of this settles out to about an 8-4 season, which would be an improvement over last year's record, with the same 5-4 conference record they had in the Big Twelve last year. The difference is the easier non-conference games, all at home.
If the Tigers finish #7 in the SEC they'd go to the Gator Bowl and face a Big Ten team such as their former annual rival, Illinois. We picked this matchup last year and it didn't happen; maybe two's a charm.
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