2012 Pre-season Rankings: #7 Michigan Wolverines

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Michigan Wolverines  (Big Ten #1; Legends #1)

#7	2011 Results	Record: 11-2	Strength:#12  Success:#12  Overall:#11
		AP #12 USA #9	Bowl: Beat Virginia Tech 23-20 OT (Sugar)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #7; Athlon #7; Steele #15
		AP #8  USA #8	Bowl: Rose (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Michigan has their best team since 2006 but to have any chance at a national title they need to get past their first game against defending national champ Alabama.

Offense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #26 (raw) #17 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #11 (adjusted)

A powerful ground game continues to drive the Michigan offense.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #95 (raw) #88 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #30
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #89 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #30

Last year Denard Robinson was supposed to run the ball less often and pass more. He did the former, with 35 fewer carries, but he also had 33 fewer passing attempts, so he declined to 2,173 passing yards with 20 touchdowns (up by 2) and 15 interceptions (up by 4). His completion percentage fell from 63% to 55%. Leading receiver Junior Hemingway (699 yards) is gone and while Jeremy Gallon (453) and Roy Roundtree (355; 935 in '10) are back the latter isn't 100% coming into the season opener. Robinson should be more efficient—higher completion %, fewer interceptions—but probably not see big gains in production.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #13 (raw) #12 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #5 (adj.)

Michigan has all the components for a great running game and then some. A great running back (Fitzgerald Toussaint, 1,041 yards and 9 TDs last year) with a solid backup (Vincent Smith, 298, 6.0 average), and a quarterback who can and will run all over the field, meaning that every play is potentially a running play. Robinson had 1,176 yards and 16 touchdowns and that was down over 500 yards from 2010. Also, a strong offensive line is necessary, and Michigan has one with three starters back: Patrick Omameh, Taylor Lewan, and Michael Schofield. What could stop the UM running game from breaking into the top ten is a big improvement in Robinson's throwing, which we don't foresee going from junior to senior year but it's possible.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #24    Pass Defense  per-game: #23   Per-attempt: #37
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #6 (raw) #9 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #40	'11 picks: #44
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #7 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #27	'12 picks: #48

The Michigan defensive line will need help this year as three of four starters are gone including Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen (5.5 sacks). That help should come from the linebackers as all three starters are back including #1 tackler Kenny Demens. They also add back a healthy Cam Gordon who started all of 2010. The secondary returns three starters including Jordan Kovacs and Thomas Gordon. The defense should be tough again, similar to last year's defense and not 2010's.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Will Hagerup (36.0 average last year) will try to hold off Matt Wile (41.6) for the punting job, while Brendan Gibbons (13 of 17 last season) returns as placekicker.
• Return Game:  Jeremy Gallon had a 10.1 average on punts last year and Drew Dileo will step up to offset the loss of Martavious Odoms (21.2 on kickoffs).
• Turnovers projection:  Michigan had the nation's best fumble margin last year (20 gained, 6 lost) and that's not good news for this year, as that part of their success isn't likely to repeat. Even if they are +7—still fantastic and rare—that's a swing of about 28 points, or over 2 per game. Robinson should offset some of that by reducing his interceptions, hopefully at least to his 2010 level.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #5          2011 Recruiting Rank: #43
A coach's first year—especially if his predecessor was fired—normally begins by bringing in a sub-par recruiting class. The second year is almost always far better. Brady Hoke shows this to good effect with one of the top recruiting classes in the country for his 2nd season. Offensive tackle Kyle Kalis of Lakewood, Ohio is the premier recruit. The class is actually only the 2nd best in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State.

2011 Recap
Michigan's schedule in 2011 was solid start to finish; the Wolverines played just two teams that didn't qualify for a bowl appearance, and one of those (Eastern Michigan) finished 6-6. So unlike previous years, the 2nd half of the season wasn't a disaster as the Wolverines were prepared for the Big Ten season. That, and the defense played far, far better. In fact, only the last game against Ohio State was a defensive breakdown, as they held everyone else other than Notre Dame under 30 points. It was arguably the offense that held the team back. They scored just 34, 31, and 28 against weak defensive teams Western Michigan (though that game was stopped before the 4th quarter), Eastern Michigan, and San Diego State. Those games were easy wins and the extra offense wasn't needed, but they could have used the points in losses to Michigan State and Iowa where they scored just 14 and 16. But the offense was exemplary against Minnesota (58 points), and strong in their last three wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State. Against Virginia Tech the offense just didn't function like it did most of the season, and the Wolverines needed defense and some luck to beat the Hokies in overtime, 23-20, in the Sugar Bowl.

2012 Outlook

Michigan 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	N	Alabama	28%	L
9/8	Sat	vs.	Air Force	99%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	100%	W
9/22	Sat	@	Notre Dame	55%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*Purdue	87%	W
10/13	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	91%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	82%	W
10/27	Sat	@	*Nebraska	62%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Minnesota	94%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	98%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	94%	W
11/24	Sat	@	*Ohio State	63%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Undefeated: 3%

 

Everything rides on the first game—at least in terms of the national championship. If the Wolverines are thinking about the BCS crown, then they have to win the first game. Lose it and the goal switches to the Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl appearance.

And that's what we expect to happen. Whether or not Fitzgerald Touissant and Frank Clark are suspended for the game makes little difference—Alabama is still better than Michigan and should win the game fairly handily. We're docking "half" of Touissant for the game, so if he plays the odds move a bit toward Michigan, if not, a bit even further away.

Win or lose, the Wolverines have to stay focused in the easy games that follow and avoid pitfalls at Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State that could derail their season. Those are three very tough places to play and winning all three would be a hell of an accomplishment. By comparison the rest of the season—even Michigan State at home—looks easy.

We pick the Wolverines in every game except the first one. The cumulative odds show 10-2 as the most likely outcome, perhaps losing two of the four tough games. There is only a 3% chance Michigan can go undefeated, but beating Alabama would make it possible.

If they do beat the Tide it would set off a frenzy among fans who have been waiting for the Wolverines to again be in the national title picture. Every game would be bigger than the last; it would possibly break the SEC's stranglehold on the BCS championship; in short, it would be good for college football.

But it doesn't appear to be in the cards. More likely, Michigan wins the Legends division and beats Wisconsin to go to the Rose Bowl, where they'd probably play Oregon. That would be good for college football, too. Just not as exciting as the season would be with a win in game one.

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