SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124
| Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten #5; Legends #3) |
 #25 |
2011 Results |
Record: 11-3 | Strength:#14 Success:#14 Overall:#13 |
| AP #11 USA #10 | Bowl: Beat Georgia 33-30 3OT (Outback) |
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| 2012 Outlook |
Record: 8-4 | Picks: Lindy's #12; Athlon #18; Steele #17 |
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| AP #13 USA #13 |
Bowl: Outback (Eligibility odds: 95%) |
The offense will inevitably slip but the defense should be even stronger this year for the Spartans.
| Offense 5 RS |
'11 Scoring Offense: #37 (raw) #35 (adjusted for competition) |
| '12 Projected Scoring Offense: #60 (adjusted) |
Losing all-time passing leader Kirk Cousins and all-time receiving yardage leader B.J. Cunningham will likely stall the passing game and along with it, the offense.
| Passing Game |
'11 Passing Rank: #41 (raw) #32 (adjusted) | '11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #36 |
| '12 Projected Passing Rank: #92 (adjusted) |
'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #29 |
Kirk Cousins started at quarterback for the last three seasons and last year had 3,316 yards and 25 touchdowns. His successor Andrew Maxwell has fewer than 300 career passing yards with 1 touchdown. He's never throw an interception, if you want to look on the bright side. Actually by all accounts he will be a good one, but he's handicapped right away by MSU having to replace its top four pass catchers from last year, including B.J. Cunningham with 1,306 yards (12 TDs) and Keshawn Martin with 777. Running back Le'veon Bell's 267 is the most that is back. The offensive line will make things a bit easier as four starters are back, but look for a possibly difficult early going and less effective attack.
| Rushing | '11 Rushing Rank: #81 (raw) #77 (adjusted) | '11 Projected Rushing Rank: #61 (adj.) |
Le'Veon Bell led last year with 948 yards and he returns; #2 Edwin Baker departs after gaining 665. The offensive line should lead Bell to well over 1,000 yards in 2012. Seniors Chris McDonald and Fou Fonoti started every game while Dan France and Travis Jackson nearly did. With the passing game breaking in so many new faces look for the Spartans to lean more on Bell.
| '11 Adjusted Stats: | Rush Defense: #2 Pass Defense per-game: #16 Per-attempt: #12 | ||
| Defense 8 RS |
'11 Scoring Defense: #10 (raw) #4 (adjusted) | '11 sacks: #2 | '11 picks: #15 |
| '12 Projected Scoring Defense: #3 (adjusted) |
'12 sacks: #3 | '12 picks: #15 | |
Michigan State's defense is what made the team great last year, and it will be what keeps the team winning this year despite the personnel losses on offense. The heart of the defense is an incredible group of linebackers: Max Bullough (#1 tackler), Denicos Allen (11 sacks), and Chris Norman. They helped the defensive line shut down the run last year as the #2 rushing defense in the nation. That line loses two starters including NFL-bound Jerel Worthy but two are back including William Gholston who had 5 sacks plus 11 tackles for loss, and 2010 starter Tyler Hoover also returns. The secondary loses Trenton Robinson but everyone else is back including Isaiah Lewis. This defense might be better than last year's model.
Special Teams/Situations
- Kicking Game: Dan Conroy (17 of 23 field goals last year) and Mike Sadler (41.1 punting average) are both back.
- Return Game: Nick Hill averaged 26.3 yards per kickoff return last year and he may be the main punter returner in '12 as KeShawn Martin (11.0 average, 1 touchdown return) departs.
- Turnovers projection: The only thing we see different here is more interceptions. On offense, that is, so it's a bad thing. Maxwell has 0 so far but unless the offense takes a lot fewer attempts odds are he will at least match Cousins' 10 from last year.
Coaching/Recruiting 2012 Recruiting Rank: #47 2011 Recruiting Rank: #37
Mark Dantonio has the Spartans doing what they've never done before—have back-to-back 11-win seasons. In fact, they'd only had a couple of 10-win seasons in their history, so both of the last two years are the program's single-season high-water mark for wins.
2011 Recap
Michigan State didn't impress early on. Beating Youngstown State
by 22 and 1-11 FAU, then losing badly to Notre Dame? They beat Central
Michigan, edged a floundering Ohio State, and beat an unproven Michigan
team. In retrospect, three of those early wins were against bowl teams,
and Michigan proved to be a very good team. So when the Spartans proved
themselves against Wisconsin, it wasn't a fluke—even if the game-winning
hail mary was. They fell at Nebraska badly the next week, but recovered
to edge Minnesota, beat Iowa soundly, and finished 10-2 going into a
rematch with the Badgers for a Rose Bowl berth. They fell behind early,
came back and led, then fell behind again late. Keshawn Martin returned a late
punt to the 3-yard line, but a roughing penalty called that back, and
Wisconsin killed the clock, ending the Spartans' Rose Bowl dream. The bowl game against Georgia was even more wild, and in the end the Spartans won in triple overtime—with some help from Georgia's kicker.
2012 Outlook
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Michigan State 2012 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/31 | Fri | vs. | Boise State | 69% | W | |||
| 9/8 | Sat | @ | Central Michigan | 88% | W | |||
| 9/15 | Sat | vs. | Notre Dame | 44% | L | |||
| 9/22 | Sat | vs. | Eastern Michigan | 95% | W | |||
| 9/29 | Sat | vs. | *Ohio State | 52% | W | |||
| 10/6 | Sat | @ | *Indiana | 92% | W | |||
| 10/13 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa | 80% | W | |||
| 10/20 | Sat | @ | *Michigan | 18% | L | |||
| 10/27 | Sat | @ | *Wisconsin | 21% | L | |||
| 11/3 | Sat | vs. | *Nebraska | 49% | L | |||
| 11/17 | Sat | vs. | *Northwestern | 90% | W | |||
| 11/24 | Sat | @ | *Minnesota | 81% | W | |||
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Straight up: 8-4 Cume: 8-4 Bowl eligible: 95%
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It will be hard for the Spartans to have another 11-win season, but if they go 9-3 like we (almost) have them game-by-game, they could slip into the Big Ten title game, then win a bowl game. However, we have them 3rd in the Legends and assume they won't be in the title game after losing road games to Michigan and Wisconsin.
Michigan State hosts Boise State in the opener and should end that team's string of beating BCS schools on the road. They visit Central Michigan but four of the first five are at home (and all five in-state). The hardest opponent will be Notre Dame who—like people say every year—could be really good. The difference is that this year not everyone is expecting the Irish to be good so it will probably happen. Ohio State will be tough too, but at home MSU has the edge.
Indiana and Iowa shouldn't be too tough to beat, but then come the back-to-back road games against the Big Ten's finest, after which they host Nebraska in a tossup contest. The Spartans should close with two easy wins.
The cumulative projection comes out to 8-4 but and game by game it works out the same. The #5 Big Ten team (#3 after weeding out Ohio State and a second BCS team) will go to the Outback bowl and probably face South Carolina. Same venue different SEC team.
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