2012 Pre-season Rankings: #12 Georgia Bulldogs

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Georgia Bulldogs  (SEC #3; East #1)

#12	2011 Results	Record: 10-4	Strength:#20  Success:#24  Overall:#21
		AP #19  USA #20	Bowl: Lost to Mich. St. 33-30 3OT (Outback)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #6; Athlon #8; Steele #9
		AP #6  USA #6	Bowl: Capital One (Eligibility odds: 99.7%)

Less than a year ago Mark Richt was on the "hottest seat" in football at 0-2. Now he's got a team gunning for a national title.

Offense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #33 (raw) #21 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #26 (adjusted)

Running back problems put a wrench in the works, but Georgia will still put up the points.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #48 (raw) #30 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #96
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #17 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #102

Aaron Murray had no sophomore slump, again passing for over 3,000 yards (3,149 this time), with 35 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Top receiver Tavarres King (705) is back while Malcolm Mitchell (665) will play both WR and corner (defense primarily until suspended players return to the secondary).  #3 Orson Charles (574) is gone but three others had over 200 yards and are back and Murray should top his numbers again. The biggest problem last year was protection, with 33 sacks allowed; the O-line loses three key starters so it will remain an issue in 2012.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #50 (raw) #37 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #68 (adj.)

Coming into the spring things looked great for the running back stable, as last year's top 6 ground gainers were back. But #1 Isaiah Crowell (850 yards) was dismissed after an arrest, and #2 Carlton Thomas (361) left before spring practice. That leaves Brandon Harton and Richard Samuel (247, 240) the top returnees but it looks like Ken Malcome (174) will start the first game. The offensive line loses three full-time starters to the NFL while Chris Burnette and half-time starters Kenarious Gates and Dallas Lee return. With the offensive line surely weaker and the top two RB gone, the ground game looks diminished.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #5    Pass Defense  per-game: #38   Per-attempt: #6
Defense 9 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #23 (raw) #23 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #15	'11 picks: #22
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #11 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #6	'12 picks: #7

This year's Bulldog defense will be great, especially after they get through the first 2 to 4 games where up to four key players will be suspended. Returning starters Bacarri Rambo (safety; 8 interceptions) and Alec Ogletree (LB) may be out up to four games, while another, Sanders Commings (corner; 12 pass breakups) is suspended the first two along with projected starter Chase Vasser (LB). That will leave the Bulldogs weak in the back seven against Missouri and maybe Vanderbilt, and we see it as the possibly the difference in the outcome of the Missouri game. Another starting corner, Brandon Smith, is not suspended for any games despite earlier reports.

When everyone is back the defense will be one of the best in the nation. In addition to the aforementioned returning starters, three of four are back on the defensive line including Cornelius Washington (5 sacks) making the top-five rushing defense even stronger. Jarvis Jones (13.5 sacks!) and Michael Gilliard are back at linebacker with Ogletree, making it possibly the strongest trio in the nation. The secondary loses Brandon Boykin (11 tackles for loss, 9 pass breakups) but Commings, Rambo, and #1 tackler Shawn Williams (4 int) are all back. Though the first 2-4 games could affect the resultant numbers, the D might be top ten in sacks and interceptions as well as scoring defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The Bulldogs need to replace both kicker Blair Walsh, who made just 21 of 35 attempts last year, and punter Drew Butler who averaged 44.2 yards. Freshmen Marshall Morgan and Collin Barber will replace them.
• Return Game:  Brandon Boykin was last year's return specialist, averaging 22.4 on kickoffs and 12.9 on punts with one touchdown return. Branden Smith will be a bit of a downgrade at 18.7 on kickoffs and 7.8 on punts last year.
• Turnovers projection:  Murray should have fewer than last year's 14 picks (he had 8 as a freshman) and the defense should get more, too.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #20          2011 Recruiting Rank: #7
Coach Mark Richt got out of the hotseat in style last year with an SEC East crown. After last year's incredible recruiting class, this year's is naturally down a bit as fewer players are brought in, but it's still quite good and includes a top national recruit at linebacker (Josh Harvey-Clemons), offensive line (Josh Theus), and perhaps most importantly for this year, running back (Keith Marshall).

2011 Recap
Georgia dropped its first two games, and Mark Richt's head was about to be cut off and delivered on a platter to his detractors. But the Bulldogs went on a 10-game winning streak that forestalled that event indefinitely. What was the difference—how did they elevate their game? Really, they didn't. The losses were to Boise State and South Carolina, two teams that were in the top ten at the time and finished there. Georgia played good football in both games. Against South Carolina the defense was awful but the offense was great. Against Boise, both were reasonable. For the rest of the year the offense was average, the defense above average, and the team got by when they needed. They were assisted by a schedule that avoided Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas from the West, instead beating Auburn and the Mississippi teams. They didn't dominate their own division, edging Vanderbilt and Florida to win the East. They beat Georgia Tech in a non-conference rivalry game before facing LSU, during which missed opportunities and big plays from the Tigers doomed them. They also played well against Michigan State except in the field goal department and that's what doomed them in triple overtime.

2012 Outlook

Georgia 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	98%	W
9/8	Sat	@	*Missouri	40%	L
9/15	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	99%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	68%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	78%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*South Carolina	50%	W
10/20	Sat	@	*Kentucky	93%	W
10/27	Sat	N	*Florida	64%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	94%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Auburn	66%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	Georgia Southern	96%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	Georgia Tech	81%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Undefeated: 3%

 

This year Georgia should be very close to being undefeated. Tight road games at Missouri and South Carolina could determine that.

Both games are tossups—but the Missouri game will be affected by suspensions that aren't fully spelled out yet. We know two players—Commings and Vasser—are gone for the first two games. That's enough to perhaps turn a narrow win at Missouri to a nail-biter loss. Rambo and Ogletree might miss four games, or possibly none. We count them out for the first two, which makes Missouri a slight but clear favorite.

By the South Carolina game Georgia will have everyone back, and be either 5-0 or 4-1. This one could go either way, but after that they should win every game. That makes a 12-0 year a possibility as they avoid playing Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas once again.

There are other pitfalls that those two teams, of course. Vanderbilt will be tough and if Rambo and Ogletree are out four games it would make that one closer. Florida in Jacksonville and Auburn on the road aren't gimmes. Thus the cumulative estimate of wins points to a 9-3 season, and very close to 10-2. Those numbers give the Bulldogs a 3% chance of going undefeated. But if they start out 6-0 it becomes a realistic goal.

Should Georgia win the East division, they'll play—and very likely lose to—the West winner, after which they'll play in the Capital One bowl probably against Nebraska.

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