2012 Pre-season Rankings: #26 Clemson Tigers

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Clemson Tigers  (ACC #2; Atlantic #2)

#26	2011 Results	Record: 10-4	Strength:#45  Success:#19  Overall:#32
		AP #22 USA #22	Bowl: Lost to West Virginia 70-33 (Orange)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #13; Athlon #15; Steele #18
		AP #14 USA #14	Bowl: Chik-Fil-A (Eligibility odds: 98%)

Clemson's first order of business is to forget the beatdown they got in the Orange Bowl.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #24 (raw) #22 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #14 (adjusted)

With Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins back (after a couple of games in Watkins' case) the offense will be even more electric.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #21 (raw) #15 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #72
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #6 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #89

Tajh Boyd (3,823 yards, 33 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) got the early notice and was a Heisman candidate for some time. But as the season went on, Sammy Watkins became the focus of attention. Watkins finished with 1,219 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns as a true freshman. DeAndre Hopkins had 978 and he returns, too. They lose Dwayne Allen (598) but five others who had over 100+ are back. Protection was a problem (33 sacks) and will continue to be, but with Boyd, Watkins, and the rest, the passing game should be one of the best in the country. As Watkins is suspended for two games it will take just a bit to ramp up to full speed.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #60 (raw) #54 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #50 (adj.)

For most of the off-season, they had the entire crew back. Andre Ellington had 1,178 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground and he returns for the Tigers. Mike Bellamy, #2 with 343, was lost to academics. But everyone else returns including #3 Watkins (231 yards) and #5 Boyd (218). The offensive line looks to be down a few notches, though, as three full-time starters are gone. Dalton Freeman and Brandon Thomas return and the ground game should still improve.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #76    Pass Defense  per-game: #58   Per-attempt: #41
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #85 (raw) #76 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #73	'11 picks: #69
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #73 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #98	'12 picks: #51

The defense was absolutely embarrassed by the Mountaineers in the Orange Bowl, and even though 7 starters are back there's no certainty that the unit will get much better. One reason is the loss of Andre Branch from the defensive line; Branch had 10.5 sacks last year. They also lose Brandon Thompson, making the rushing defense poorer as just one starter returns.

There's good news behind the line, however. All three linebackers return including Corico Wright (ex- Corico Hawkins) and Jonathan Willard, and the secondary returns three starters including #1 tackler Rashard Hall. They do lose Coty Sensabaugh who had 13 pass breakups as well as future star Martin Jenkins (recently injured and out for the year) but should still reel in more picks this season. All in all it's a small step forward as the rushing defense and pass rush look weaker, but pass defense should improve.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Chandler Catanzaro (22 of 27 field goals last year) returns while punter Dawson Zimmerman (41.8 average) departs. Senior Spencer Benton surprisingly beat out freshman Bradley Pinion for the punter job, at least for week one.
• Return Game:  All-purpose phenom Sammy Watkins averaged 25.0 yards on kickoffs with one touchdown return, while fellow receiver DeAndre Hopkins will again field punts (4.9 ave).
• Turnovers projection:  The Tigers should have a slightly better turnover margin this year with small improvements in each category.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #33          2011 Recruiting Rank: #6
Dabo Swinney's 5th recruiting class isn't nearly as good as last year's, but that often happens. Last year's class was larger so naturally this one isn't as big. Not only that, there was little attrition last year and this year a couple of recruits have transferred already. There's also probably no player like Watkins in this year's crop.

2011 Recap
Clemson waited a long time for a year like 2011, their first 10-win season since 1990. Several seasons looked like a breakthrough only to end in disappointment, but last year they did it. Not that there wasn't some disappointment in the end. When the Tigers roared to an 8-0 start, they were on the short list of national title frontrunners and in pole position of the ACC having defeated FSU and Virginia Tech. But during that run the signs were clear that it wouldn't last. They had several narrow wins where they allowed the other team to score at will, particularly against Maryland and North Carolina. Because of this their Strength rating was very low for an undefeated team and it seemed just a matter of time before they fell. That happened against Georgia Tech, and after a brief respite with a 3-point win over Wake Forest, they lost to North Carolina State and South Carolina by lopsided scores. Just when it looked like the magic was gone they once again played their best against Virginia Tech, handing the Hokies a 2nd loss, again in dominant fashion. But in the Orange Bowl their porous defense proved their downfall. The offense did its part, keeping up early, but the goal-line-to-goal-line fumble return by the Mountaineers opened the floodgates and the Tigers suffered an embarrassing 70-point beatdown.

2012 Outlook

Clemson 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Auburn	63%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Ball State	93%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Furman	98%	W
9/22	Sat	@	*Florida State	17%	L
9/29	Sat	@	*Boston College	72%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	67%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	68%	W
10/25	Thu	@	*Wake Forest	76%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Duke	81%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	92%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*N.C. State	83%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	South Carolina	50%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 98%

 

Clemson was overrated last year even as they were undefeated. This year the team is going to be even better and if they play consistently their season could be even better.

Three early games should all be wins. Sammy Watkins is out for the first two games due to marijuana possession but they should still beat Auburn at home and games 2 and 3 are gimmes. That sets up the game that could decide the Atlantic division and possibly the Orange Bowl berth as the winner should beat the Coastal rep.

We don't think Clemson will win at Florida State, but we favor them fairly solidly in the next seven games, and just barely in the eight (South Carolina). So Clemson should be 10-2 or 11-1 if they play every game up to their capabilities. Few teams ever do that, so with some slippage and an upset here and there Clemson will be about 9-3, maybe 8-4.

If they miss out on the ACC title game they still might be the #2 ACC team and go to the Chik-Fil-A Bowl where they'll face an SEC team, which this year might be an upstart Vanderbilt squad.

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