2012 Pre-season Rankings: #21 Texas A&M Aggies

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Texas A&M Aggies  (SEC #8; West #4)

#21	2011 Results	Record: 7-6	Strength:#10  Success:#23  Overall:#15
		AP NR USA #32	Bowl: Beat Northwestern 33-22 (Car Care)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 7-5	Picks: Lindy's #29; Athlon #32; Steele #31
		AP #36 USA #30	Bowl: Liberty (Eligibility odds: 86%)

Last year Texas A&M was the best 6-6 team you'll ever find; they were really a top 10 team in terms of strength and a bottom 10 team in terms of luck. This year they won't be quite as good but not nearly as unlucky and should finish with a better record.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #11 (raw) #13 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #13 (adjusted)

With Kevin Sumlin—famous for his pass-heavy Houston offenses—taking over as head coach and ex-Houston QB Klift Klingsbury the offensive coordinator, look for the passing game to be emphasized even more.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #18 (raw) #20 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #4
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #19 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #4

Ryan Tannehill passed for 3,744 yards and threw 28 touchdown in his senior year, but also had 15 interceptions. With freshman Johnny Manziel stepping in, you have to wonder how many picks he might have if the Aggies throw the ball as much—or more—than last year. There's some good news in that two of the team's key receivers—Ryan Swope (1,207 yards, 11 TDs) and Uzoma Nwachukwu (639 yards)—are back, while #2 Jeff Fuller (828) departs. Six others with 100+ are back, too. The offensive line loses only one starter so last year's great protection (9 sacks in 537 attempts!) should remain. The offense won't immediately move to passing as often as Houston but it will move in that direction which should keep the adjusted yardage about the same.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #24 (raw) #20 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #40 (adj.)

Last year's leading rusher Cyrus Gray (1,045 yards, 12 TDs) is gone but #2 Christine Michael (899) is back. QB Tannehill added 306. The offensive line will certainly be conducive to running the ball, as full-time starters Patrick Lewis, Jake Matthews, and Luke Joeckel are back with half-time starters Cedric Ogbuehi and Jarvis Harrison. We'd project a similar top-20 ranking this year but the number of carries will probably drop and production will follow.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #6    Pass Defense  per-game: #91   Per-attempt: #26
Defense 5 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #73 (raw) #27 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #1	'11 picks: #86
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #27 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #4	'12 picks: #99

The defensive line spearheaded a massive pass rush which resulted in 51 sacks for the team, which ranked #1 in the nation in both raw and adjusted-for-opponent figures. Two starters are gone from the 4-man line including Tony Jerod-Eddie who had 5 sacks, but Damontre Moore (8.5 sacks) is back. The D-line also was majorly responsible, of course, for the Aggies' top ten rush defense. At linebacker all three starters return so that rush D should remain very strong. #1 tackler Jonathan Stewart joins Steven Jenkins and team sacks leader Sean Porter (9.5). The secondary is where the concern is as #2 tackler Trent Hunter and Terrence Fredrick (13 pass breakups) are among the losses. Overall the front seven's strength offsets the secondary's weakness, but the defense remains open for exploitation as occured last year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The Aggies suffer a huge loss as Randy Bullock, who made 29 of 33 field goal attempts last year, is gone. Taylor Bertolet will try to fill his shoes. Punter Ryan Epperson (41.2 yard average) is back.
• Return Game:  Dustin Harris averaged 18.5 yards per punt return last year with one touchdown return, and 23.4 on kickoffs, where LaKendrick Williams will join him.
• Turnovers projection:  If Ryan Tannehill throws 15 interceptions, how many does a redshirt freshman succeeding him throw? We'll find out, but unless he's very accurate and poised for a freshman—which is possible, some QBs are cautious by nature—there could be a whole mess of them.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #23          2011 Recruiting Rank: #35
Kevin Sumlin's first class is surprisingly better than A&M's previous one. Moving to the SEC may have had something to do with that. The class would have ranked #3 in the Big Twelve but is only #11 in the SEC by our numbers! Of course, we rank 8 SEC teams between #12 and #22 in recruiting this year so it's really part of a big logjam tie for 3rd place in the SEC, too. A&M landed Trey Williams from Spring, Texas, who is one of the very top running back recruits in the country.

2011 Recap
High expectations gave way to major disappointment for the Aggies in 2011. They started the year in some people's top ten (ours too) and looked it after two games. Considering Oklahoma State and Arkansas finished in the top 5, losses by a combined 5 points isn't so bad. The Aggies were 5-2 going into the Missouri game, but that's when their penchant for losing big leads really became a problem. They'd led Oklahoma State by 17, Arkansas by 18, and Missouri by 14. The Tigers tied the game and won in overtime. The Aggies then lost to Oklahoma, then Kansas State in four overtimes after leading by 10 in the 4th quarter. The Texas game was the last straw; they led by 13 early but lost by 2. The offense really didn't ever let the team down, but the defense had major lapses. In the end, however, they still rated as a top ten team, as four of their losses were to Top 25 teams, and two others were to bowl teams. Two were overtime losses, and three others were by a combined 7 points. They smoked Baylor and beat two more bowl teams. They were a prime example of a team with a mediocre record that was actually very good, but there might have been something to their team psyche that allowed those comeback wins. Playing at home doesn't seem to have helped; in fact, three of their meltdowns occurred at home. The Aggies did beat Northwestern in the Car Care Bowl which at least let them finish with a winning record.

2012 Outlook

Texas A&M 2012 schedule & forecast
8/30	Thu	@	Louisiana Tech	62%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	*Florida	62%	W
9/15	Sat	@	SMU	72%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	South Carolina St.	100%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	47%	L
10/6	Sat	@	*Mississippi	79%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*LSU	22%	L
10/27	Sat	@	*Auburn	54%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	60%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Alabama	9%	L
11/17	Sat	vs.	Sam Houston St.	88%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	57%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 67%

 

Texas A&M's first three games aren't easy. They go on the road to face #1 WAC team Louisiana Tech, come home for their SEC debut with Florida, then it's back on the road for SMU. We favor them in all three, but going 3-0 would be an accomplishment nevertheless.

The Aggies get a breather with South Carolina State, then they face a key game with Arkansas. Like last year's game, it looks really close. Other SEC games that look close include Auburn, Mississippi State, and Missouri. We assume a win over Ole Miss and losses to LSU and Alabama. They play a 2nd FCS team, Sam Houston State, in November.

Game-by-game they should go 9-3, but so many of these outcomes are unclear that a fuzzy 7-5 season looks more likely. That's cutting it close considering that they'll need 7 wins to get to a bowl game due to their schedule.

But in the end they should get those 7 or 8 wins and as the #8 SEC team they'd go to the Liberty Bowl and play the C-USA champ—who we figure to be Sumlin's old team, Houston.

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