2012 Pre-season Rankings: #13 Arkansas Razorbacks

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Arkansas Razorbacks  (SEC #4; West #3)

#13	2011 Results	Record: 11-2	Strength:#13  Success:#4  Overall:#9
		AP #5  USA #5	Bowl: Beat Kansas State 29-16 (Cotton)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #9; Athlon #13; Steele #11
		AP #10 USA #10	Bowl: Cotton (Eligibility odds: 99%)

With Arkansas just as good as last year but Alabama and LSU still on the schedule, 2012 could be a virtual repeat of 2011.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #15 (raw) #12 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #7 (adjusted)

Knile Davis' return should spark the running game while passing remains potent.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #13 (raw) #12 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #71
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #13 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #72

The outlook for the passing game is a mixed bag that leads to a nearly unchanged projection. On one hand, quarterback Tyler Wilson (3,638 yards, 24 TDs, 6 int) is back. On the other hand, top receivers Jairus Wright (1,117 yards, 12 TDs) and Joe Adams (652 yards) are both gone. Six other players had over 100 receiving yards and five are back including Cobi Hamilton and Chris Gragg who combined for over 1,000. Three starters are back on the line which suggests protection will be about the same. Arkansas' passing game should be as strong as it was last season.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #84 (raw) #64 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #36 (adj.)

Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo combined for 1,128 yards and 6 touchdowns, not enough to make the ground game feared. Both are back and Knile Davis, who had 1,322 yards in 2010 but was lost right before the 2011 season, is back. The offensive line should be just as good as last year, losing two starters but returning Travis Swanson, Alvin Bailey, and Jason Peacock. With Davis back along with their two best options from last year the rushing numbers should improve.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #64    Pass Defense  per-game: #64   Per-attempt: #19
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #35 (raw) #37 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #34	'11 picks: #47
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #40 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #32	'12 picks: #87

Arkansas' defense was pretty good, not great, last year and will be about the same, if not down slightly. The main area of decline looks to be interceptions. The Razorbacks had 12 last year and that ranked them #47 in the nation when adjusted for the teams they faced. This year they return less than half of their pass defences (breakups plus interceptions) including just 4 of 12 picks.

The secondary returns two starters including Eric Bennett but they lose Tramaine Thomas who had 5 interceptions. Tenarius Wright moves to linebacker, where Alonzo Highsmith returns but Jerry Franklin (#1 w/101 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss) and Jerico Nelson are gone. Two  starters return to the defensive line but they lose Jake Bequette who led with 10 sacks; luckily for the Razorbacks he is one of only a few players with a sack to depart, so the pass rush should be just as strong.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The Arkansas kicking game was excellent last year, and both Zach Hocker (21 of 27 field goals) and punter Dylan Breeding (45.3 average) are back.
• Return Game:  Arkansas' return game was even better than its kicking game, but it's in trouble this year. Joe Adams returned four punts for touchdowns and averaged 16.9 yards; Adams is gone and they're not going to replicate that, so it represents a big step back from last year. Both Dennis Johnson and Marquel Wade averaged 25.6 yards per kickoff return and had a touchdown apiece; Johnson is back but Wade was kicked off the team, meaning they lose 5 touchdown returns from last year. Johnson is good but he won't have 6 touchdowns, especially with the new return rules allowing fewer opportunities.
• Turnovers projection:  Arkansas might have fewer interceptions on defense, but it will mostly be offset by their fumble margin which should even out from last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #17          2011 Recruiting Rank: #15
John L. Smith's first recruiting class keeps up with the rest of the SEC, essentially in a group of about 8 SEC schools in the 11-20 range in class ranking. There was no real decline from last year since Smith took the job so late and almost all the recruits had been signed, sealed, and delivered by Bobby Petrino. Petrino, of course, was fired after he lied about not having a girl on the back of his motorcycle whom he'd hired for a job in the football program after he crashed said motorcycle.

2011 Recap
Only two teams beat Arkansas last year: #1 Alabama and #2 LSU. Did that make them the #3 team in the nation? Not really; they lost each game by 24 points. But they beat #9 South Carolina handily, beat Auburn by 24, and crushed Mississippi State in a rout. They had more trouble with Texas A&M and Vanderbilt (and even Mississippi and Troy) but they silently compiled a solid 10-2 record, and ended up #5 in the final AP poll. Because they were the third-highest rated team in the conference, they were ineligible for a BCS bowl; due to the dominance of the West division of the SEC, they were #5 in the nation but only #3 in their own division. Arkansas played strong offense all year and average defense, with a lapse against Troy (38-28) being their only bad performance on offense and defense all season. They did seem to have a problem putting away a few teams they underestimated, Troy and Mississippi (and perhaps Vanderbilt, too). They didn't have the same issue against Kansas State, winning the Cotton Bowl 29-16.

2012 Outlook

Arkansas 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Jacksonville State	100%	W
9/8	Sat	N	Louisiana-Monroe	97%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	28%	L
9/22	Sat	vs.	Rutgers	79%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	53%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*Auburn	65%	W
10/13	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	97%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	94%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	84%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*South Carolina	49%	L
11/17	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	71%	W
11/23	Fri	vs.	*LSU	32%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

Arkansas hosts Alabama in mid-September and it's pretty safe to say their first two games will not have prepared them for it. On the other hand, the early weeks will allow some players to completely heal injuries they might have.

Like last year, the Razorbacks will probably lose to the Tide, and also to LSU late in the year. We give them every other game except the tossup at South Carolina. So the Razorbacks could repeat at 10-2, or slip to 9-3. If they lose at Texas A&M, then 8-4.

The cumulative projection is 8-4 by a hair, with 9-3 almost as likely. 9-4 is the "mode" estimate too, in that it's the single most likely outcome according to our assigned percentages.

In other words it looks a lot like last year for the Razorbacks, unless they can find a way to beat the Tide and/or the Tigers. Most likely, it's back to the Cotton Bowl, where this year the opponent might be Oklahoma State.

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