Here are the results by conference for the 2011-2012 bowl season, with the conferences ranked by a combination of raw performance and performance vs. expectations. (FOR 2012-2013 RESULTS, CLICK HERE)
Formula: A bowl win gets one point; a loss subtracts one. Add difference in expected vs. actual wins, and covering/not covering the spread.
Conference Record Win± Expected diff vs. spread diff2 Points
C-USA 4-1 +3 2-3 +2 3-1-1 +2 +7
Big 12 6-2 +4 6-2 0 5-3 +2 +6
MAC 4-1 +3 2-3 +2 3-2 +1 +6
Big East 3-2 +1 2-3 +1 3-2 +1 +3
SEC* 5-2 +3 7-0 -2 4-3 +1 +2
Ind 1-1 0 1-1 0 1-1 0 0
MWC 2-3 -1 3-2 -1 2-3 -1 -3
Sun Belt 1-2 -1 2-1 -1 1-2 -1 -3
Pac-12 2-5 -3 1-6 +1 3-4 -1 -3
Big 10 4-6 -2 3-7 +1 3-6-1 -3 -4
WAC 0-3 -3 1-2 -1 1-1-1 0 -4
ACC 2-6 -4 4-4 -2 3-4-1 -1 -7
- Record = win/loss record in bowl games
- Win+/- = simple difference in wins vs. losses
- Expected = the oddsmakers expected win/loss record for the conference
- diff1 = difference between expected and actual performance
- vs. spread = how the conference did against the spread in all their games
- diff2 = spread "wins" minus spread "losses"
- Points: sum of columns Win±, diff1, and diff2
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Conference-USA was the surprise leader among the bowl performers, going 4-1 when they were expected to be just 2-3. SMU's upset of Pittsburgh pushed them ahead of the Big Twelve, who is in 2nd place now. The ACC fell to the bottom of the performance heap after back-to-back losses by Virginia Tech and Clemson.
The Big Twelve matched expectations at 6-2, and they also covered the spread in all of their wins except for one—the Fiesta Bowl, which they won with a field goal when they were 1/2 yard from a touchdown on the previous play. The only Big Twelve teams to lose were Iowa State and Kansas State, who fell to Arkansas.
The MAC also outperformed, winning 4 games instead of the expected 2. The Big East was 3-2 with wins by Rutgers, Cincinnati, and West Virginia's 70-33 win over Clemson. But Pitt's lost kept them from shooting for #1. The Independents (BYU and Notre Dame) performed on par.
The SEC did well at 5-2 (not including the BCS title game), but they were supposed to be 7-0 which held them back a bit. They were 4-3 against the spread after Arkansas' win over Kansas State. Note that the SEC is in an odd position and can't be judged very well using this system this year, since their two best teams play each other. This shifts their teams one bowl rung higher and makes their top two teams technically unable to score any net "points."
The Pac-12 was in last place early on but Oregon's win over Wisconsin lifted them into a tie with the Mountain West for 8th place so far. Stanford lost to Oklahoma State but beat the 4-point spread, so neither conference was affected by the game by our system. The Sun Belt fell below par with Arkansas State's upset loss.
The Big Ten's poor showing on January 2—winning just 1 of 5 games—put it temporarily in last place, as Penn State, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin all lost. All were underdogs, but upset winner Michigan State beat the spread. A day later, Michigan beat Virginia Tech, tying the 3-point spread, and lifting the conference out of the cellar into which the ACC later fell.
The ACC had a terrible time in the bowl season, going 2-6 as favorites Georgia Tech and Clemson lost, the former in overtime, the latter by 37 points. The WAC is the only conference to lose all of their bowl games.
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