Tuesday, January 3: Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA at 8:30 pm eastern
#11 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) vs. #19 Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2)
Michigan, in their first BCS bowl in five years, take on the Virginia Tech Hokies, a perennial BCS bowl presence.
Vegas line/spread: Michigan by 3 (over/under 51)
The Wolverines are a slim favorite, 2 1/2 to 3 points by the oddsmakers.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. spread |
| Michigan | 67% | 62% |
| VA Tech | 33% | 38% |
Michigan wins more than 2/3 of the cross-compared game ratings, and a large majority against the spread. The Wolverines are a top ten team (#9) in the Strength Power Rating and despite being 11-2 Virginia Tech is just #32.
Strength Power Rating: Michigan 28, VA Tech 18 Tempo-free: Michigan 28, VA Tech 17
Michigan is a comfortable winner by the Strength Power Rating's estimation. The reason is clear: the Wolverines are better than the Hokies, even on defense, as measured by adjusted scoring. Michigan is #9 on defense; the Hokies are #11, so both teams are solid on D. But on offense Michigan is #15 but Virginia Tech is just #67.
Both teams play a slow tempo so there should be fewer drive opportunities for both teams, but it doesn't affect our estimate much.
Yardage analysis: Michigan 23, VA Tech 21 per attempt: Michigan 38, VA Tech 28
Normally, Virginia Tech ranks better on the scoreboard than they do on the stats page, due to solid defense and great special teams play. But this year is different—the Hokies are better by from-scrimmage yardage than by scoring. They are #20 in yardage differential (yards gained - yards yielded, adjusted) and Michigan is #18, so the Wolverines are expected by this projection to gain just 10 yards more from scrimmage than the Hokies.
Both the Wolverine offense (#28) and defense (#18) rank lower by yardage than by score, while Virginia Tech is much better on offense (#41) by yardage and ranks about the same in yardage and scoring (#11).
In the per-play comparisons, Michigan has a big advantage in the passing game and a slim one on running plays and is again a 10-point favorite.
Yardage + interceptions + kick returns: Michigan 23, VA Tech 21
There isn't enough of a difference in the teams in projected turnovers or return yardage to change the yardage score projection. Virginia Tech has an insignificant advantage in projected interceptions, but Michigan has a large lead in fumble recoveries that is enough to nullify that. Since we don't normally consider fumbles to be predictable, we don't give the Wolverines any advantage, either.
Nor do we see either team having a game-changing kick return. Virginia Tech had the only touchdown of either team, and that came against I-AA Appalachian State in the opener.
When Michigan has the ball
| Michigan rushing offense: #7 |
VA Tech rushing defense: #16 |
Denard Robinson again rushed for over 1,000 yards, but he wasn't the only Wolverine to do so as Fitzgerald Toussaint came on strong to ease the burden on Robinson. Fitzgerald had 1,011 yards and Robinson 1,163; the two combined for 25 touchdowns. Virginia Tech is always strong against the run and this year is no exception. Michigan will probably have around 150 yards on the ground.
Though Clemson's Tajh Boyd beat the Hokies twice, he only had 28 rushing yards each time, so the Hokies might not have any more trouble with Robinson than would normally be expected.
| Michigan passing offense: #86 | VA Tech passing defense: #17 per att: #40 |
| Michigan interceptions thrown ranking: #46 | VA Tech interceptions picked ranking: #68 |
| Michigan quarterback protection rank: #36 | VA Tech pass rush rank: #7 |
While Robinson is still dangerous on the ground, he's been up and down in his passing game. For the year he completed just 56%, for just over 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns. He was also intercepted 14 times. Missing last year's top two receivers, one due to pre-season suspension, Robinson struggled at times. This year's top targets are Junior Hemingway and Jeremy Gallon, who combined for over 1,000 yards. As always, Virginia Tech has a solid defense and Michigan should have around 200 passing yards.
Virginia Tech doesn't have a great takeaway defense against the pass, so while Robinson has thrown quite a few interceptions we see the Hokies having just one pick in the game. Virginia Tech's great pass rush should hound Robinson all night, however; the Hokies have 38 sacks this year, led by James Gayle's 7, J.R. Collins' 6, and linebacker Bruce Taylor with 5 before his mid-season injury. Robinson has good mobility, of course, but he'll probably be sacked 2 or 3 times.
When VA Tech has the ball
| VA Tech rushing offense: #36 |
Michigan rushing defense: #23 |
The Hokies have had some great runners in recent years and this season it's David Wilson with 1,627 yards and 9 touchdowns. They also have a good history of running quarterbacks—Michael Vick, and recently Tyrod Taylor—and in 2011 Logan Thomas had 416 net yards and 10 TDs. Michigan's much-improved defense is stingy against the run and the Hokies should have around 140 yards.
| VA Tech passing offense: #60 | Michigan passing defense: #22 per att: #36 |
| VA Tech interceptions thrown ranking: #46 | Michigan interceptions picked ranking: #43 |
| VA Tech quarterback protection rank: #36 | Michigan pass rush rank: #35 |
Logan Thomas has 2,799 passing yards with 19 touchdowns, so he's at least the equal of Robinson in passing if not in running the ball. Danny Coale and Jarret Boykin combine for over 1,500 receiving yards. Michigan's defense, so terrible against the pass last year, made an amazing improvement and sits in the top 25 in adjusted per-game passing yards yielded; they should hold the Hokies to around 200 yards through the air.
The offense/defense comparisons in terms of interceptions and sacks couldn't be more equal. We expect Michigan to pick off Thomas once and probably sack him twice, both of which are average figures for any game.
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Michigan's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (8)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- Western Michigan 34-10
- Notre Dame 35-31
- Eastern Michigan 31-3
- San Diego St 28-7
- Minnesota 58-0
- @ Northwestern 42-24
- @ #17 Michigan St 14-28
- Purdue 36-14
- @ Iowa 16-24
- @ Illinois 31-14
- #16 Nebraska 45-17
- Ohio State 40-34
Michigan's schedule this year was solid start to finish; they played just two teams that didn't qualify for a bowl appearance, and one of those (Eastern Michigan) finished 6-6.
So unlike the last few years, the 2nd half of the season wasn't a disaster as the Wolverines were prepared for the Big Ten season. That, and the defense played far, far better this year. In fact, only the last game against Ohio State was a defensive breakdown, as they held everyone else other than Notre Dame under 30 points.
It was arguably the offense that held the team back. They scored just 34, 31, and 28 against weak defensive teams Western Michigan (though that game was stopped before the 4th quarter), Eastern Michigan, and San Diego State. Those games were easy wins and the extra offense wasn't needed, but they could have used the points in losses to Michigan State and Iowa where they scored just 14 and 16.
But the offense was exemplary against Minnesota (58 points), and strong in their last three wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State.
VA Tech's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (7)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- Appalachian St 66-13
- @ East Carolina 17-10
- #24 Arkansas St 26-7
- @ Marshall 30-10
- #18 Clemson 3-23
- Miami FL 38-35
- @ Wake Forest 38-17
- Boston College 30-14
- @ Duke 14-10
- @ Georgia Tech 37-26
- North Carolina 24-21
- @ Virginia 38-0
- = #18 Clemson 10-38
Virginia Tech has two losses, but has lost to only one team. That should be good news in a way, but they way they lost those games doesn't bode well for their game against Michigan.
The problem in both losses was their offense, as the Hokies managed just 3 and 10 points against the Tigers. But they gave up 38 in the second loss, so the team had trouble stopping an offense featuring a dual-threat quarterback who is not in Denard Robinson's class. He is a better passer, though, and as we noted, Virginia Tech's offense hit a wall against the Tigers. They also played poorly against East Carolina and Duke, so it doesn't take a strong defense to fluster the Hokie offense. And strangely the offense did well against Miami and Boston College, the only above-average defenses they faced.
The Hokies have defeated almost as many bowl teams as Michigan, but their wins have been much less convincing overall. Other than the opener against outmatched FCS team Appalachian State and Virginia Tech's offense scored a maximum of 38 points, though they did that three times.
Key Injuries
Neither team has a major problem with recent injuries; several players are back from missing late-season games.
Psychology/Motivation
- Michigan's season: +3 wins; VA Tech's season: +1 win
- Michigan's momentum: -2 wins; VA Tech's momentum: +1 win
- Michigan won final game: YES; VA Tech won final game: NO
- Michigan glad to be there? YES; VA Tech glad to be there: yes
- Michigan coaching situation: stable; VA Tech coaching situation: stable
Michigan had their best season in many years, and while Virginia Tech improved by one regular-season game from last year, they won the ACC title game in 2010 but lost this time around. The contrast in the two teams' last games is stark: Michigan beat Ohio State for the first time since 2003, while the Hokies suffered a bad defeat. They were lucky to get in a BCS bowl, so they're probably quite happy to be at the Sugar Bowl, but Michigan will be a little bit more amped.
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Final analysis
Michigan looks better than Virginia Tech by most comparisons, either by a little or by a lot. But on the field the Hokies have won games just like Michigan did, and against a solid schedule of bowl teams, beating 7 to Michigan's 8. If they're doing just enough to win, can they do the same against Michigan?
Two things are troubling for the Hokies, though. The best team they beat is probably Arkansas State or one of a handful of bowl-qualifying but not top-25-level ACC teams. Can they beat a team as good as Michigan? And the two losses to Clemson are troubling. Clemson beat them badly, twice. Is there anything special about the Tigers that allowed them to shut down Virginia Tech twice, or is it just because they were the only BCS-conference top 25 teams they faced?
The two questions are probably related. There doesn't seem to be anything about Clemson that creates such a terrible matchup that the Hokies should have lost by a combined 61-13 in two games. Clemson just beat them twice, and neither time in South Carolina. And Michigan is a better team than Clemson, with a better offense and much better defense.
Normally fumbles aren't very predictable, that is, teams that fumble a lot or recover more fumbles than normal simply regress to the mean in the future. Michigan ranks first in fumble recoveries, and rarely fumbles the ball themselves, while Virginia Tech is in the bottom ten in fumbles gained. Since both teams run the ball primarily, this could be a factor—if perhaps the extreme cases have predictive value.
Virginia Tech is a solid team that is capable of beating good but not great teams. They're quite erratic on offense and sometimes needs the defense to win it for them. Their usually great special teams isn't all that great this year, probably not good enough to get them a win against Michigan.
Prediction: Michigan 31, VA Tech 14
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.
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