Wednesday, January 4: Orange Bowl in Miami, FL at 8:30 pm eastern
#18 Clemson Tigers (10-3) vs. #25 West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3)
The Orange Bowl is often where the ACC and Big East champions meet, and as such is the consolation bowl of the BCS. It does feature two prominent all-purpose athletes, Sammy Watkins of Clemson and Tavon Austin of West Virginia.
Vegas line/spread: Clemson by 3 (over/under 64)
The oddsmakers have installed Clemson as a slim favorite, and see a fairly high-scoring game. So at least it's got that going for it. The over/under rose to 64 on game day, up from 62.5 a few days earlier.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. spread |
| Clemson | 47.4% | 42% |
| West Virginia | 52.6% | 58% |
By our power rating, West Virginia has slightly better game ratings and wins the game-comparisons count by a slight margin. That margin increases when the spread is taken into account. The Mountaineers are behind the Tigers, #34 to #27, in the FBS-only version of the Strength Power Rating, but using the All-Divisions version—which includes Clemson's poor game with Wofford—West Virginia is #31 and Clemson #36.
Strength Power Rating: W. Virginia 36.3, Clemson 35.8 Tempo-free: W. Virginia 37, Clemson 36
Again using the All-Divisions version of the Strength rating, the Mountaineers are around a 1/2 point favorite. They're a few spots ahead of Clemson on offense and a few spots behind on defense, with both teams in the top 25 in the former and actually below average (#60) in the latter.
Yardage analysis: W. Virginia 35, Clemson 34 per attempt: W. Virginia 29, Clemson 28
Using yardage rather than points, the result is about the same: a 1-point Mountaineer win. West Virginia is #25 in adjusted yardage differential, Clemson #29. The offense/defense comparisons very closely match the corresponding ratings in the Strenth Power Rating, with West Virginia's offense (#18) slightly ahead of Clemson's (#19), but their defense (#51) leads Clemson's offense (#58) too. It suggests there should be just a 10-yard difference in total yardage in the game.
The per-attempt yardage projection shows a similar one-point margin, with lower scoring. Clemson's slight advantage in passing yards per attempt is offset by a bigger (1/2 yard) advantage for West Virginia in yards per carry.
Yardage + interceptions + kick returns: West Virginia 38, Clemson 35
Starting with the per-game yardage projection, we adjust for non-scrimmage plays (return yards) and the effect of turnovers. Looking just at interceptions since they're a lot more predictable that fumbles, West Virginia gains a slight edge worth nearly 2 points. We add a few points for each team due to kick returns since both have a good chance of having longer ones, possibly for a score; the Mountaineers' Tavon Austin has returned 2 kicks for touchdowns and Clemson has allowed 2 such returns, while Clemson's freshman phenom Sammy Watkins has 1 TD return and West Virginia has allowed 3.
All of this means a slightly higher projected combined score (due to kick returns) and a wider advantage for the Mountaineers (from projected interceptions).
When Clemson has the ball
| Clemson rushing offense: #59 |
West Virginia rushing defense: #57 |
Clemson has an average rushing attack for an FBS team. Andre Ellington is the focus, with 1,062 yards, but four other players have over 150 yards for the season including quarterback Tajh Boyd. The #2 back, Mike Bellamy, might be suspended for the game. West Virginia's rushing defense is also very average, meaning Clemson should have a typical total of 140 yards or so. Using per-carry numbers doesn't change the equation much; both units are still quite average.
| Clemson passing offense: #14 | West Virginia passing defense: #58 per att: #41 |
| Clemson interceptions thrown ranking: #43 | West Virginia interceptions picked ranking: #35 |
| Clemson quarterback protection rank: #73 | West Virginia pass rush rank: #34 |
Clemson's offense gets most of its yardage through the air, and Tajh Boyd was at one time on several Heisman lists. He finished the season with 3,578 yards and 31 touchdowns in a breakthrough season. The new star on the offense was receiver Sammy Watkins, who in addition to being a great return man was the team's leading receiver with 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins was a close second with 871 yards on 62 catches (Hopkins is listed as doubtful for the game). Like their rush defense, WVA has an average pass defense and could give up nearly 300 yards through the air to the Tigers.
The Mountaineers' best defense against the pass is going for interceptions and sacks, and they're pretty good at both. Boyd has thrown only 10 picks this year and probably won't have more than one in the Orange Bowl. He's been sacked 28 times, however. West Virginia also has 28 sacks on defense, led by seniors Bruce Irvin and Julian Miller who combine for 13. Look for 2 or 3 sacks on Boyd during the game, with pressure being West Virginia's most successful tactic to slow down the Clemson air attack.
When West Virginia has the ball
| West Virginia rushing offense: #81 |
Clemson rushing defense: #72 |
Now that RichRod and his understudies are gone, West Virginia is no longer a running team as evidenced by their poor ranking in adjusted per-game yardage. Lead rusher Dustin Garrison had 742 yards and fullback Shawne Alston 339 and 10 TDs. Alston will carry the load against Clemson as Garrison recently suffered an ACL sprain. Without Garrison, West Virginia might have trouble reaching our 140 yard estimate.
| West Virginia passing offense: #11 | Clemson passing defense: #42 per att: #39 |
| West Virginia interceptions thrown ranking: #23 | Clemson interceptions picked ranking: #67 |
| West Virginia quarterback protection rank: #60 | Clemson pass rush rank: #62 |
Like Clemson, West Virginia is primarily a passing team, and Geno Smith has had a year to rival Boyd's. Smith completed 65% of his attempts for just shy of 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions. He has two fantastic targets in Stedman Bailey (1,197 yards, 11 TDs) and Tavon Austin (1,063 yards and a team-leading 89 catches). The Clemson pass defense isn't terrible but isn't great, and Smith should throw for over 300 yards.
It's unlikely Clemson's defense can do much to prevent the Mountaineers from racking up the yardage. As mentioned Smith is not interception-prone, and it's just over 50/50 whether Clemson gets a pick at all in the game. They should get a couple of sacks on Smith, who has been sacked 26 times. Clemson's pass rush is only at an average level due to the presence of Andre Branch, who has 10.5 of the Tigers' 24 sacks.
Clemson's best bet for slowing down Smith and co. could be to focus fully on the pass, hoping that the running game is even more anemic without Garrison.
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Clemson's season (10-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- Troy 43-19
- Wofford 35-27
- Auburn 38-24
- Florida St 35-30
- @ #19 Virginia Tech 23-3
- Boston College 36-14
- @ Maryland 56-45
- North Carolina 59-38
- @ Georgia Tech 17-31
- Wake Forest 31-28
- @ North Carolina St 13-37
- @ #10 South Carolina 13-34
- = #19 Virginia Tech 38-10
Clemson waited a long time for a year like this, their first 10-win season since 1990. Several times it's looked like a breakthrough year only to end in disappointment, but this time they did it.
Not that there wasn't some disappointment in the end. When the Tigers roared to an 8-0 start, they were on the short list of national title frontrunners and in pole position of the ACC having defeated FSU and Virginia Tech. But during that run the signs were clear that it wouldn't last. They had several narrow wins where they allowed the other team to score at will, particularly against Maryland and North Carolina. Because of this their Strength rating was very low for an undefeated team and it seemed just a matter of time before they fell. That happened against Georgia Tech, and after a brief respite with a 3-point win over Wake Forest, they lost to North Carolina State and South Carolina by lopsided scores.
Just when it looked like the magic was gone they once again played their best against Virginia Tech, handing the Hokies a 2nd loss, again in dominant fashion.
West Virginia's season (9-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (1)
- Marshall 34-13
- Norfolk St 55-12
- @ Maryland 37-31
- #1 LSU 21-47
- Bowling Green 55-10
- Connecticut 43-16
- @ Syracuse 23-49
- @ Rutgers 41-31
- Louisville 35-38
- @ Cincinnati 24-21
- Pittsburgh 21-20
- @ South Florida 30-27
Like every team in the hunt for the Big East title, West Virginia was hot one week, cold the next.
Their pre-conference season was uninspiring but mostly successful, with a 4-1 start highlighted by a win over minor bowl team Marshall, a narrow win over Maryland, and a 55-10 win over Bowling Green that was probably their best overall performance. They also played LSU tough before the Tigers pulled away.
In the Big East they were erratic, blasting UConn one week, getting crushed by Syracuse the next, then beating Rutgers before falling to Louisville. They managed to win out, beating Cincy, Pitt, and USF by a combined 7 points to form a 3-way tie at the top that they ultimately won by being the highest-rated in the BCS.
Comparing their season to Clemson's, we note both teams had big trouble with Maryland on the road. West Virginia didn't beat any top 25 teams, while Clemson can at least claim to have Virginia Tech's number.
Key Injuries
Both teams are expected to have some key players missing. Clemson's #2 rusher Mike Bellamy is probably suspended for the game, and #2 receiver DeAndre Hopkins is likely out with injury. For West Virginia, leading rusher Dustin Garrison is out.
Psychology/Motivation
- Clemson's season: +3 wins; West Virginia's season: +0 wins
- Clemson's momentum: -3 wins; West Virginia's momentum: -1 win
- Clemson won final game: YES; West Virginia won final game: yes
- Clemson glad to be there? yes; West Virginia glad to be there: yes
- Clemson coaching situation: stable; West Virginia coaching situation: stable
Clemson had a great season compared to last year's 6-6 effort, but that effect was tempered a bit by the fact that they started 6-0 and had national title longings before losing three of their last six regularly-scheduled games. And that disappointment, too, was tempered by convincingly beating Virginia Tech in the ACC title game to reach the Orange Bowl.
West Virginia's year was similar to last year's in record but instead of going to the Champs Sports Bowl they're in a BCS bowl. Only because this year, the tiebreaker went their way instead of against them in the seemingly inevitable three-way tie atop the Big East.
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Final analysis
Even though the numbers don't bear it out, it just "seems" like Clemson is the better team. Is it because of their 8-0 run? The fact that they demolished Virginia Tech twice? That they don't play in the Big East? Whatever the case, most people would say the Tigers are tougher, and that's born out by the fact that they're favored to win the game.
It does seem clear that Clemson, at their best, is better than West Virginia at its best. Two wins over Virginia Tech trump narrow victories over Cincinnati and Rutgers or a Bowling Green blowout. West Virginia is also worse when at its worst, as the Syracuse loss shows. But average everything out and the Mountaineers rate slightly better by the numbers.
And Clemson really is a paradox. They hit a "wall" after their 8th game on offense, struggling for four straight games before a big recovery against Virginia Tech. Their defense was terrible all season, again, except for two games against Virginia Tech. What is it about the Hokies that made the team play so much better than they really are? There's nothing in the matchup that would suggest such an advantage. They just must have gotten really, really hyped up to play them.
So do we treat those games as flukes? If so, Clemson is in trouble, as that would knock five points off their performance level. They played 32 points better against Virginia Tech than against the rest of their field, with about 25 points of that improvement from defense.
The injuries to both teams probably offset each other, but we should subtract a few points from the score projection for them. Clemson is missing their #2 rusher and their #2 receiver; and West Virginia their #1 rusher. This could mean some time in the backfield for the teams' all-purpose superstars, Sammy Watkins and Tavon Austin. Both are their teams' third-leading rusher in addition to being their go-to receiver.
The bottom line is that if Clemson plays like they did against Virginia Tech, they'll win by about four touchdowns. If they don't play like that, on average they'll lose by about six points. Since they played like the former only twice and like the latter most of the rest of the time, we'll go with the majority of games and pick a West Virginia upset win. Though it still "seems" to us like the Tigers should win.
Prediction: West Virginia 36, Clemson 30
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.
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