Sunday, January 8: GoDaddy.com Bowl in Mobile, AL at 9:00 pm eastern
#24 Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3)
It's the Sun Bowl champ vs. the MAC champ, both teams have 10 wins while carrying long winning streaks, and the winner gets a spot in the SportsRatings Top 25. So it's not the kind of non-BCS January bowl game that I have called to boycott. Of course, there still might be a boycott due to GoDaddy's SOPA stance debacle...
Vegas line/spread: Arkansas State by 1 1/2 (over/under 63)
The Red Wolves are a slim favorite. The game is expected to be high-scoring.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. spread |
| Arkansas St | 52% | 49.4% |
| N Illinois | 48% | 50.6% |
Comparing game performances, the Red Wolves have been better a slim majority of times. It's so tight that Northern Illinois wins most of the time against the spread. Arkansas State (#51 in the Strength Power Rating) has been more consistent, but hasn't reached the highs (or lows) that Northern Illinois (#60) has, so it depends on which Huskie team shows up.
Strength Power Rating: Arkansas St 34, N Illinois 33 Tempo-free: Arkansas St 35, N Illinois 33
Arkansas State is balanced on offense and defense, with an above-average unit (#47, #50) in both. Northern Illinois has a very strong offense—top 25 quality in fact as they are #24 in the scoring offense. But their defense is terrible, ranking #93. The game should have a slightly faster tempo, another reason to support higher scoring.
Yardage analysis: Arkansas St 38, N Illinois 33 per attempt: N Illinois 31, Arkansas St 28
Arkansas State is #39 in yardage differential to the Huskies' #62, and should outgain them by around 40 total yards. As with scoring, the Red Wolves are decent on both offense (#35) and defense (#44) while Northern Illinois is strong offensively (#22) and weak on D (#98). So the score estimate derived from adjusted yardage from scrimmage is fairly similar to the scoring-based estimate.
But looking at per-play yardage, Northern Illinois comes out on top. They should have a solid advantage in rushing yards per carry and a slim advantage in yards per attempt passing. It just depends on how many plays each team has during the game; since they average about the same, by this comparison, the Huskies can and should win the game.
Yardage + interceptions + kick returns: Arkansas St 38, N Illinois 34
We don't adjust the yardage estimate much for the possibility for game-changing kick returns and turnovers. Both have very strong kick coverage and rank low in kick fielding average, though each team has had a few touchdown returns. There isn't a big difference in how many interceptions each team should have; the Huskies have a very slight potential advantage and we give them a point.
When Arkansas State has the ball
| Arkansas St rushing offense: #73 |
N Illinois rushing defense: #68 |
The Red Wolves are a passing team, and quarterback Ryan Aplin is the team's leading rusher with 605 yards and 9 TDs with a 4.0 net per-carry average. Derek Lawson and Frankie Jackson have 459 and 343 yards in the running back position, but the offense is in the quarterback's arm. Northern Illinois' rushing defense isn't very good, though, so the Red Wolves should have around 150 yards.
| Arkansas St passing offense: #27 | N Illinois passing defense: #114 per att: #89 |
| Arkansas St interceptions thrown ranking: #98 | N Illinois interceptions picked ranking: #52 |
| Arkansas St quarterback protection rank: #61 | N Illinois pass rush rank: #42 |
Aplin passed for 3,235 yards and 18 touchdowns with 66% completions but 13 interceptions. He relies on receiver Dwayne Frampton (1,125) a lot as well as Josh Jarboe (707 yards), who was kicked out of both Oklahoma and Troy before ending up at Arkansas State following junior college. Northern Illinois has given up a lot of yards through the air to some much poorer passing teams; Aplin should have over 300 yards.
Because Aplin is somewhat interception-prone, Northern Illinois has an opportunity to make some big plays. They only have 10 picks on the year themselves and will most likely have just one. The Huskies pass rush is pretty decent, and Arkansas State's protection just average, allowing 24 sacks. We see Northern Illinois having a couple of sacks, with the battle up front one of the keys to the game.
When Northern Illinois has the ball
| N Illinois rushing offense: #16 |
Arkansas St rushing defense: #42 |
Northern Illinois has a very strong running attack, and Arkansas State's defense is decent but has their work cut out for them. NIU's quarterback is also their leading rusher, but he has 1,382 yards this season and 11 TDs. #1 running back Jasmin Hopkins has 932 and 15 TDs. The Huskies should have about 200 yards of rushing offense.
| N Illinois passing offense: #63 | Arkansas St passing defense: #63 per att: #44 |
| N Illinois interceptions thrown ranking: #10 | Arkansas St interceptions picked ranking: #8 |
| N Illinois quarterback protection rank: #22 | Arkansas St pass rush rank: #15 |
Harnish isn't extremely prolific through the air, but he has 2,942 yards and has thrown 26 touchdown passes against just 5 interceptions. That's good enough to make gains against Arkansas State's defense, so expect around 225 yards from the Huskies. Nathan Palmer and Martel Moore (13 TDs combined) are his top targets, but he spreads the ball around pretty well.
This matchup is extremely even in the offense/defense rankings: it's #63 vs. #63 in adjusted per-game yardage, and #45 vs. #44 in adjusted per-play yardage. It also features a quarterback who rarely throws picks vs. a team that has a lot of them (18) during the season. Further, it matches up an offensive line that protects Harnish very well (just 9 sacks all year) against a defense that has 32 sacks. With both units ranking high, expect the average amount of both interceptions (1) and sacks (2).
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Arkansas State's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- @ Illinois 15-33
- Memphis 47-3
- @ #19 Virginia Tech 7-26
- Central Arkansas 53-24
- @ Western Kentucky 26-22
- @ Louisiana-Monroe 24-19
- Florida Int'l 34-16
- North Texas 37-14
- @ Florida Atlantic 39-21
- Louisiana-Lafayette 30-21
- @ Middle Tennessee St 45-19
- Troy 45-14
Arkansas State was a very consistent team, especially after their got their two losses to BCS-conference teams out of the way. In the Sun Belt they methodically dispatched all the competition en route to a perfect record and outright title.
There's not much more to say. The Red Wolves played within a narrow range, perhaps doing best against Memphis in a 47-3 blowout. The finale over Troy was emphatic, too, but by then the Trojans were shellshocked. They narrowly escaped Western Kentucky and ULM with wins, but were strong at home in beating FIU and North Texas.
There were ups and downs offensively for a while, but that was probably due to the disparity in competition affecting their rhythm more than anything. On defense they played like the team as a whole—competent, but probably never "great."
Northern Illinois's season (10-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (2)
- Army 49-26
- @ Kansas 42-45
- = #7 Wisconsin 7-49
- Cal Poly SLO 47-30
- @ Central Michigan 41-48
- Kent St 40-10
- Western Michigan 51-22
- @ Buffalo 31-30
- @ Toledo 63-60
- @ Bowling Green 45-14
- Ball St 41-38
- Eastern Michigan 18-12
- = Ohio U. 23-20
In contrast to Arkansas State, Northern Illinois had major ups and downs in performance, both overall and on offense and defense, from game to game.
The offense was great in the win over Army, but the defense was horrible in losing to Kansas, and both were terrible against Wisconsin. The offense played well against Cal Poly and Central Michigan, but the defense was bad. After 5 games NIU was 2-3, with two losses to losing teams, and the defense hadn't played a decent game yet.
But the offense did well in 4 of the first 5, and continued to do so most of the rest of the season. And with the defense picking it up against Kent State and Western Michigan, the team embarked on a winning streak that would last to the end of the season. The key win came at Toledo, an epic shootout that went down to the wire for a 63-60 win. That game and the Bowling Green win were solid wins; the 31-30 Buffalo escape, and the three narrow wins that closed the season, were not. That includes the Ohio win that gave the Huskies the MAC championship. In the last two games, it was the offense that underperformed, scoring just 18 and 23.
Key Injuries
Both teams appear to be relatively healthy in the key positions going into the game.
Psychology/Motivation
- Arkansas State's season: +6 wins; N Illinois's season: -1 win
- Arkansas State's momentum: +2 wins; N Illinois's momentum: +3 wins
- Arkansas State won final game: YES; N Illinois won final game: YES
- Arkansas State glad to be there? YES; N Illinois glad to be there: YES
- Arkansas State coaching situation: coach left; N Illinois coaching situation: stable
We can proudly say we foresaw the major turnaround in Arkansas State coming, having picked the team to go 10-2 (and getting all the individual games correct), or 8-4 on a "probability" basis. With the 10-2 finish, the Red Wolves have their best team since the legendary undefeated 1975 squad.
Northern Illinois had one more win last year in the regular season, but they lost the MAC title game in 2010 so this year is not a decline. They have some momentum, too, having won 8 straight, though Arkansas State can say the same thing with their 9-game streak.
The main psychological difference between the teams has to be the coaching situation. Arkansas State's Hugh Freeze left—after just this one season—to become the coach at Mississippi. They recently announced an incredible hire—Gus Malzahn, who should have been a head coach somewhere long ago—but that's great news for next year, maybe not for the bowl game. Offensive coordinator David Gunn will lead the team on Sunday.
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Final analysis
Northern Illinois played 5 games that were better than anything Arkansas State managed all year. But they also played 6 games that were as bad or worse than the Red Wolves at their lowest. So it's the way Northern Illinois plays that will determine the outcome of this game.
Northern Illinois' defense has had its troubles this year. Four times they played abysmally (seriously, 45 points by Kansas?), and in four other games they were just bad. That leaves 5 games out of 13 where the defense was decent or good. They'll probably need one of those games in order to win.
Their offense has also slipped a few times—against Wisconsin, Eastern Michigan, and Ohio. Two of them came in the season's final two games. That leaves three games where the offense and defense both played well. NIU beat a lot of MAC teams by narrow scores due to rarely being on the same page offensively and defensively; five of their last six wins were by a touchdown or less.
NIU's rare offensive breakdowns tended to occur against teams with strong defenses. That makes sense, of course, but the level of that decline was more than would be expected. It seemed there was a "line" above which NIU's offense dropped off, by a lot. Playing four top 100 defenses, the Huskies scored 7, 40, 18, and 23. Arkansas State's defense is #61 in the All-Division Strength Power Rating.
So while the potential range in this game's margin of victory is huge—anywhere from a Northern Illinois blowout as they put it all together on offense and defense, to a huge win for Arkansas State as NIU tanks on both sides of the ball—we're going to assume the Huskies play a bit worse on offense, and fairly well on defense. Arkansas State is so stable that we're going to disregard the coaching change as a potential factor, and figure instead that they'll ride the wave of their best season in over 35 years to a win.
Prediction: Arkansas State 30, Northern Illinois 27
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.
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Posted by: Telecomenzi | January 07, 2012 at 07:24 PM