Monday, January 2: Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ at 8:30 pm eastern
#3 Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) vs. #5 Stanford Cardinal (11-1)
Other than the national championship game, this is the top draw among the bowls.
Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma State by 4 (over/under 74)
The line opened at 3 and has moved to 4 points, trending up a bit on game day. Scoring is expected to be very high.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. spread |
| Oklahoma St | 58% | 52% |
| Stanford | 42% | 48% |
Oklahoma State is a fairly clear favorite by the game-comparisons method; even against the spread the Cowboys win more of the permutations. Of interest is the fact that Stanford's rating has declined quite a bit during the bowl season due to losses by their Pac-12 opponents, four of whom didn't cover the spread. Stanford ranks #6—down from #5 right after the regular season—and Oklahoma State #3 behind LSU and Alabama. Including FCS-opponent games, as we do for our All-Divisions Strength Power Rating, Oklahoma State is #2.
Strength Power Rating: Oklahoma St 39, Stanford 33 Tempo-free: Stanford 39, OK State 38
The Cowboys are a six-point favorite according to the Strength Power Rating. The combined score is a bit shy of the over/under after correcting scores for the big overtime games both teams had, which pumped up both teams' points scored and points yielded.
Not that these teams' offenses need any help. Oklahoma State is #1 in adjusted scoring offense and Stanford #6. Both defenses are also very good when corrected for the opponents they faced: Stanford is #8 and the Cowboys #15. Before correction, Oklahoma State is just #56 but they've played a schedule against killer offenses and held most far below their average.
Oklahoma State plays at a very fast tempo, while Stanford's is fairly slow. Their offenses and defenses switch placement: Stanford scores more points per drive than Oklahoma State does, while the Cowboys allow fewer points per drive than the Cardinal. The game is expected be a bit faster than most but when Oklahoma State's main advantage—scoring offense—is no longer an advantage, they lose by a point.
Yardage analysis: Stanford 41, Oklahoma St 37 per attempt: Oklahoma St 35, Stanford 34
By yardage and yardage alone—scoring not taken into account—Stanford has the edge. They rank #2 in yardage differential, with the #7 offense and #8 defense. Oklahoma State is #5, with the #3 offense but the #64 defense. The big discrepancy here is the Cowboy defense, which is #15 by points but #64 in yardage. The best explanation for this is their turnover margin, which is #2 in the country. They are #1 in total turnovers gained; that stops a lot of drives, preventing points while allowing some yardage. Note that while Oklahoma State is famously just #106 in total yardage on defense before correction (to #64), again, look at the offenses they've faced before believing they're in the bottom 20 in the nation.
Either way, Stanford wins the yardage-only projection on a per-game basis, outgaining the Cowboys by just over 30 yards. Oklahoma State wins the per-play comparison. Both teams should average close to 5 yards per carry rushing, but the Cowboys have a small advantage in passing yards per play.
Yardage + interceptions + kick returns: Oklahoma St 41, Stanford 37
We mentioned Oklahoma State's great turnover margin advantage, and it's enough to flip the yardage estimate, turning it the Cowboys' way. Fumbles are dead even between the teams and we don't try to predict them anyway. But for interceptions, there is a big projected discrepancy: Stanford probably won't have any while Oklahoma State likely has 2. That's enough for a nearly 8-point swing. Both teams have a slim chance of a game-changing kick return.
When Oklahoma St has the ball
| Oklahoma St rushing offense: #37 |
Stanford rushing defense: #12 |
For such a high-powered passing team, Oklahoma State runs the ball well. Part of the reason is that they run so many plays, there are a lot of runs, and there is a bit of surprise factor when they depart from the pass. But the Cowboys rank #4 in the nation in rushing yards per carry adjusted for opposition, so they're good at it, period. Joseph Randle has 1,193 yards and 23 touchdowns, and Jeremy Smith has 645 and 9.
Stanford's rushing defense is stout, both on a per-game (#12) and per-play (#17) measure. Oklahoma State should have around 125 yards assuming they split their calls as they have in the past.
| Oklahoma St passing offense: #3 | Stanford passing defense: #10 per att: #28 |
| Oklahoma St interceptions thrown ranking: #45 | Stanford interceptions picked ranking: #116 |
| Oklahoma St quarterback protection rank: #8 | Stanford pass rush rank: #4 |
What is the secret to Brandon Weeden's success? Last year it seemed like he owed it to Justin Blackmon, who this year had a "down year" with 1,336 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. He also has Tracy Moore (672 yards) and Josh Cooper (660) among others. But this season it looked more and more like he was the reason for Oklahoma State's success, throwing for 4,328 yards and 34 touchdowns while completing a very impressive 73%.
Or is it Oklahoma State's offensive line, which has given up just 11 sacks on Weeden this year? That's incredible for 522 attempts, and everyone knows that a quarterback is many times better when he has time to throw. That offensive line will be tested by Stanford's pass rush, which has claimed 38 sacks this year. The Cardinal, led by Chase Thomas with 8.5 sacks, should get Weeden two or even three times during the game, a lot more than his average but less than Stanford's average haul. Weeden has much less to worry about in terms of interceptions, as he's thrown only 12 and Stanford has picked off only 6 passes all season. They probably won't get one during the game.
All in all, Oklahoma State's passing game should be good for around 330 yards of offense.
When Stanford has the ball
| Stanford rushing offense: #22 |
Oklahoma St rushing defense: #63 |
Neither team is famous for their running game but both are quite good on the ground. Stepfan Taylor has 1,153 yards and 8 TDs while Tyler Gaffney has 445 and 7. This is one area in which Oklahoma State's defense is poor, and they may give up around 200 yards to Stanford's ground game. The Cardinal could use the running game to slow down the tempo, too, giving their defense a rest.
| Stanford passing offense: #19 | Oklahoma St passing defense: #64 per att: #6 |
| Stanford interceptions thrown ranking: #59 | Oklahoma St interceptions picked ranking: #1 |
| Stanford quarterback protection rank: #6 | Oklahoma St pass rush rank: #18 |
Passing is what Stanford and Andrew Luck are known for. Surprisingly they're only just inside the top 20 in adjusted yardage; some of this is due to many blowout wins, where the team stops passing early to run out the clock. They are #7 in adjusted passing yardage per play. Luck finished with 3,170 yards, 70% completions, and 35 touchdowns, and was the Heisman runner-up for the 2nd straight year. Griff Whalen was the team's top receiver with 664 yards and tight end Coby Fleener was #2 with 648 and 10 touchdowns.
Oklahoma State's passing defense looks mediocre to bad on a per-game basis, but on a per-play basis it is excellent. The reason for the poor per-game stat is that the Cowboys play a hurry-up offense, meaning the opposing team runs a lot of plays and in addition is usually behind, having to pass to try to catch up. Whether Stanford is ahead or behind they will do their share of passing and should have around 290 yards.
Where the Cowboys will have to try to disrupt Luck is through big plays, particularly interceptions. They have 23 interceptions, #1 in the nation when adjusted for their opponents. Luck has thrown 9 this year, several of them late in the season when he faced better defenses. The Cowboys should have 2 interceptions in the game and that could be the difference; if Luck avoids throwing picks the Cardinal probably win. In terms of sacks, Stanford is once again among the best in protection (9 sacks this year) but Oklahoma State's pass rush is pretty good. They will likely have 1-2 sacks during the game.
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Oklahoma St's season (11-1)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (8)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0*)
- LA-Lafayette 61-34
- Arizona 37-14
- @ Tulsa 59-33
- @ Texas A&M 30-29
- Kansas 70-28
- @ Texas 38-26
- @ Missouri 45-24
- #15 Baylor 59-24
- #13 Kansas St 52-45
- @ Texas Tech 66-6
- @ Iowa St 31-37 2OT
- #21 Oklahoma 44-10
It took a while for Oklahoma State to prove it was really among the elite, i.e. top five in college football. Beating Louisiana-Lafayette wasn't a big deal as nothing was expected of the Cajuns, and they even scored 34 points which at the time demonstrated that the Cowboys couldn't play defense. ULL finished 8-4 and won a bowl game, however.
The Arizona and Tulsa blowouts were expected, and while the win over A&M was good, the Aggies blew a big lead again. Scoring 70 on Kansas was typical, and beating Texas by 12 just after Oklahoma had done the job by 38 didn't set the world on fire. Missouri had 3 losses already when the Cowboys beat them, and running up 59 on Baylor's poor defense was no big deal. Kansas State? Again, they beat a team by 7 that Oklahoma had destroyed earlier.
By the time of the 66-6 Texas Tech blowout, however, the merit of their accomplishments was becoming clear. Seven of those victims would be in bowl games, and Tech had beaten Oklahoma while other undefeated teams had fallen. So Oklahoma State went into Ames as a likely national title participant. They left a 37-31 double overtime loser. Was it because of the bad news they heard of coaching colleagues' deaths in a plane crash? We'll never know. But the national title dream was over.
They still had unfinished business, i.e. winning the Big Twelve title. They beat Oklahoma worse than they've beaten the Sooners in over 60 years, and almost convinced enough voters to put them #2 to slip into the title game...but not quite.
Note that off-the-charts scores on offense are almost typical for Oklahoma State, but they also have a few of those on defense. Bookending the Iowa State game are two of the best-rated games that any team has played this year, leading us to believe that the Iowa State game was a complete fluke and that emotional circumstances may have taken a toll on the team.
Stanford's season (11-1)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)
- San Jose St 57-3
- @ Duke 44-14
- @ Arizona 37-10
- UCLA 45-19
- Colorado 48-7
- @ Washington St 44-14
- Washington 65-21
- @ #8 Southern Cal 56-48 3OT
- @ Oregon St 38-13
- #9 Oregon 30-53
- California 31-28
- Notre Dame 28-14
Looking at Stanford's early schedule, we see a team that didn't play a winning opponent for the first half of its season. Is that why things got so hard down the stretch?
Though they beat Washington in one of their best performances, the very next game almost derailed their season as they needed triple overtime to beat USC. Then in game 10, Oregon socked it to them and they stumbled to the end of the season with a too-close game against Cal and a not-quite-dominant performance against Notre Dame, both at home.
In the end, Stanford has been a great, dominant team this year but only has beaten one top 25 team, and that was in triple overtime. A win over Oklahoma State would give their résumé a big boost.
Key Injuries
Stanford's #3 pass catcher Chris Owusu missed the last three games of the season and is not likely to play. Oklahoma State's situation is much the same as it was the last several games.
Psychology/Motivation
- Oklahoma St's season: +1 win; Stanford's season: +0 wins
- Oklahoma St's momentum: -1 win; Stanford's momentum: -1 win
- Oklahoma St won final game: YES; Stanford won final game: yes
- Oklahoma St glad to be there? yes; Stanford glad to be there: yes
- Oklahoma St coaching situation: stable; Stanford coaching situation: stable
Both teams had great seasons, but both also missed out on the national title game. Oklahoma State was closer to it than Stanford, but the Cardinal also failed to win the Pac-12. Still, they both finished in the top 5 nationally and are in a BCS bowl game.
Stanford is having just about the same season they did a year ago: beating up on everyone with a narrow win over USC and a big loss to Oregon. Oklahoma State took last year's season a step further with a huge win over Oklahoma that will be remembered fondly for many decades in Stillwater.
That last win probably gives the Cowboys some momentum going into the game. There's no chance that either team will be overconfident or underestimate their opponent.
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Final analysis
For most of the season, Stanford looked like the better team of the two, but Stanford's late-season "stumble" and Oklahoma State's "surge", despite the loss at Iowa State, has established the Cowboys as the favorite in the game. Though Stanford can probably beat anyone on a given day, we agree it's more likely that Oklahoma State wins the Fiesta Bowl.
Only twice this year has Stanford faced a team with a top 25 offense that also had a top 25 defense: USC and Oregon. Both times those teams were able to slow down the Cardinal offense while also racking up points against the defense. They barely won the former game in triple overtime, and lost the latter game badly at home. Oklahoma State's All-Division Strength Power Rating profile (#1, #18), is very similar to Oregon's (#2, #24), and that spells trouble for Stanford. Oregon and USC (as well as Cal, who played them close) also had a top 25 per-attempt passing defense, and Oklahoma State is #6 in that statistic.
Stanford is used to getting a backbreaking lead with its offense, and Oklahoma State can stop that. The Cowboy passing defense is more of a bend-but-don't-break unit, meaning they will give up yardage with offensive reps, so Luck should have a very good day yardage-wise. But they are great at intercepting throws, and that's where they can change the game: with a few interceptions on key drives. Stanford's running game should be successful, however, and it's their best chance to win, by slowing the game down. The problem is, Oklahoma State's offense will likely keep the pressure on and force Stanford out of the running game, at least later in the contest when time becomes critical.
Stanford's shot at slowing down Weeden is their great pass rush. But Oklahoma State's protection is excellent, too. It will be a great battle in the trenches on pass plays but we don't see Stanford overwhelming the Oklahoma State protection.
Between the two teams there is one true elite receiver, and that is Justin Blackmon. He's had a few bad fumbles this year and didn't match last year's performance, but others have picked up the slack as Blackmon is a focus of the defense. Stanford has done well in guarding star receivers but Oklahoma State has a lot of targets to choose from. The Cowboys also have the advantage in backup QBs; if Weeden goes down, sophomore Clint Chelf (307 yards, 3 TDs, 0 int) is more experienced than Luck's backups, who have thrown 11 passes combined.
Interceptions should be the key to this game. Both teams will be passing a lot and key stops will be critical. We expect Oklahoma State to have two picks and Stanford none, and for that to be the difference in the game. If that equation changes, so should the final score. If the Cowboys have just a 1 pick advantage the game is a toss-up, and if Stanford makes it an even battle—either by Luck avoiding interceptions or the Stanford defense picking off Weeden—the Cardinal should prevail. But with d-backs Brodrick Brown (5 int) and Justin Gilbert (4), and linebacker James Thomas (4) on the hunt, we have the Cowboys winning the offensive battle with big plays on defense.
Prediction: Oklahoma St 41, Stanford 35
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.
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