Friday, January 6: Cotton Bowl in Arlington, TX at 8:00 pm eastern
#6 Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) vs. #13 Kansas State Wildcats (10-2)
The Cotton Bowl has always been the George Martin of the BCS, i.e. the "Fifth" BCS bowl, and this year is no exception. Both Arkansas and Kansas State are in the BCS top ten, have lost only to other top 25 teams, and represent the two best conferences in the nation this season.
Vegas line/spread: Arkansas by 9 1/2 (over/under 63.5)
Arkansas is favored by over a touchdown, which seems to be a balance between the chances of an Arkansas blowout win and another narrow Kansas State escape. The rest of our data analysis shows off these various possibilities, including one that very nearly matches the Vegas line. The line has moved up a couple of points in just the last few days from 7 1/2 to 9 1/2; perhaps after the public saw West Virginia rout Clemson, the idea that a bowl game could be a blowout rather than an overtime game is in the forefront of people's minds!
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. spread |
| Arkansas | 57.5% | 42% |
| Kansas St | 42.5% | 58% |
Arkansas is a moderate favorite by the game-comparison system, but against the spread Kansas State is just as big of a favorite. Are the oddsmakers too biased toward Arkansas? The Razorbacks are #14 in the Strength Power Rating, the Wildcats #16, about 2.5 rating points apart. So why the 9 1/2 point spread?
Strength Power Rating: Arkansas 34, Kansas St 29 Tempo-free: Arkansas 36, Kansas St 35
When we use the All-Division Strength Power Rating, we include both teams' games against FCS teams. Arkansas beat Missouri State 51-7, while Kansas State beat Eastern Kentucky 10-7. Just those two games alone separate the Razorbacks and Wildcats by a few more points, resulting in a 5-point Arkansas win. It's still not 7.5 points, but is closer than without the FCS games. Arkansas has the offensive advantage, ranking #10 in adjusted scoring to Kansas State's #17, while the Wildcat defense edges the Razorbacks', #37 to #44.
The tempo-free estimate shows the closest estimate between the teams. On a per-drive basis, Kansas State is almost as good as Arkansas. The teams end up at the same, average tempo, despite their disparate offenses and widely contrasting times of possession; the final tempo of the game should only be slightly above average. You could say Arkansas is a "slow" passing team while K-State is a "fast" running team; K-State should dominate time of possession, which gives them a chance to win the game.
Yardage analysis: Arkansas 36, Kansas St 24 per attempt: Arkansas 35, Kansas St 24
Here is the scenario in which Arkansas dominates: if the game is decided by plays from scrimmage, the Razorbacks win handily. They rank #27 in adjusted yardage differential while K-State is just #72. Arkansas' offense is #12; the Wildcats are #85. The defenses are both mediocre (K-State #47, Arkansas #68). This yields a 12-point margin estimated for Arkansas based on a 90-yard advantage isn projected total yardage. The per-attempt projection is similar, with Arkansas' advantage coming from much higher per-attempt passing yardage.
Kansas State's success, in spite of their mediocre play from scrimmage on offense, comes from solid red zone offense, decent play on 3rd downs, good kick fielding, and probably more than anything, great turnover margin (as we'll see below).
Yardage + interceptions + kick returns: Arkansas 36, Kansas St 27
The 12-point projection above narrows when we add in the potential effects of kick return and turnovers, and it's the latter than narrows the gap. Kansas State doesn't throw interceptions, and they intercept a lot of passes. By the averages, they should have at least one more pick than Arkansas, and that translates to more than four points. We don't even factor in fumbles, which also tilt heavily toward Kansas State.
Both teams should have had solid kick returns during the season; Kansas State is #6 on kickoff returns, and Tyler Lockett took two back for touchdowns. Meanwhile Arkansas' Joe Adams has three punt returns for touchdowns. All this potential for better field position and/or score events would add two points to both teams, but freshman Lockett, who averaged 35 yards per kick return, was lost for the season after the Oklahoma State game; we assume the return team as a whole is partially responsible for his success and add a point for the Wildcats. But the return game overall tilts to the Razorbacks with Lockett's absence.
In the end the Wildcats gain three points on the Razorbacks, cutting the expected margin to 9, which is close to where the Vegas line ended up on game day.
When Arkansas has the ball
| Arkansas rushing offense: #68 |
Kansas St rushing defense: #21 |
Arkansas was a passing team last year, but without last year's star running back Knile Davis, Arkansas has become a nearly 1-dimensional passing team. The running game isn't horrible—Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo combined for over 1,000 yards, and the team is pretty good in adjusted yards per carry—but more and more it's just not the emphasis of the offense.
Kansas State has a solid rushing defense and hold the Razorbacks to around 110 yards, but if Arkansas decides to run the ball more they could have success. It's just doubtful they will since the passing matchup looks so favorable.
| Arkansas passing offense: #10 | Kansas St passing defense: #92 per att: #38 |
| Arkansas interceptions thrown ranking: #24 | Kansas St interceptions picked ranking: #4 |
| Arkansas quarterback protection rank: #71 | Kansas St pass rush rank: #75 |
Tyler Wilson took over for Ryan Mallett against Auburn last year and lit them up, so it wasn't a surprise when he took the reigns effectively this year, throwing for 3,422 yards and 22 touchdowns. Jarius Wright is the go-to receiver with 1,029 yards and 11 touchdowns. Kansas State's passing defense has given up tons of yardage, but looking at their per-attemp rating, it seems that's because teams pass on them rather than run by choice. In the Big Twelve they face a lot of the best passing teams. But Arkansas will be passing, too, and they'll probably have around 340 yards.
Kansas State will try to stop them with turnovers, as mentioned before. The Wildcats are #4 in interceptions, adjusted for the quarterbacks they've faced, with 18 picks this year. Nigel Malone leads the team with 7. Wilson has only been picked off 6 times this year but the Wildcats will probably get one during the game. If they have more, they can start to turn the game around. Despite Meshak Williams' (7 sacks) presence, the overall K-State pass rush isn't great, nor is the Arkansas protection which has allowed 25 sacks this year. The Wildcats will probably have 2 sacks, and apply less pressure than the Razorbacks normally deal with.
When Kansas St has the ball
| Kansas St rushing offense: #18 |
Arkansas rushing defense: #76 |
Kansas State has a quarterback with more attempts rushing than passing, which clearly indicates they are a run-first team. Their high rating in per-game yardage (adjusted for opposition) reflects this. Collin Klein has 1,099 rushing yards, and top running back John Hubert is just short of 1,000 at 933. Klein also has an incredible 26 touchdowns on the ground. Arkansas isn't great at stopping the run, so look for well over 200 yards from the Wildcats.
| Kansas St passing offense: #109 | Arkansas passing defense: #59 per att: #20 |
| Kansas St interceptions thrown ranking: #1 | Arkansas interceptions picked ranking: #57 |
| Kansas St quarterback protection rank: #109 | Arkansas pass rush rank: #53 |
Klein isn't a bad passer, but his productivity is low due to few attempts. And let's face it, even if he runs as well as Robert Griffin he doesn't pass like him; he completed 58% of his attempts for 1,745 yards and 12 touchdowns. He is like Griffin in another way—he takes very good care of the ball, throwing just 5 picks this year. Arkansas has an average passing defense in per-game numbers and K-State should have around 150 yards. Arkansas has a solid per-attempt defensive average, so things don't necessarily get more productive for K-State if they're forced to pass more.
Arkansas can't count on interceptions changing the game for them when on defense, and since K-State throws so rarely and throws so few interceptions, it's not likely that Arkansas will get even one during the game. Their focus should be on the pass rush. Though the Razorbacks have just an average pass rush—22 sacks this year—Klein has been sacked 36 times, so they can really disrupt the passing game if they have to. Jake Bequette leads the team with 8 sacks; the Razorbacks should sack Klein 3 times if the Wildcats pass their normal (meager) amount, and that number should increase if Klein has to drop back more often.
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Arkansas's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- Missouri St 51-7
- New Mexico 52-3
- Troy 38-28
- @ #1 Alabama 14-38
- = Texas A&M 42-38
- Auburn 38-14
- @ Mississippi 29-24
- @ Vanderbilt 31-28
- #10 South Carolina 44-28
- Tennessee 49-7
- Mississippi St 44-17
- @ #2 LSU 17-41
Only two teams beat Arkansas this year: #1 LSU and #2 Alabama. Does that make them possibly the #3 team in the nation? Not really; they lost each game by 24 points.
They also beat #10 South Carolina handily, beat Auburn by 24, and crushed Mississippi State in a rout. They had more trouble with Texas A&M and Vanderbilt (and even Mississippi and Troy) but they silently compiled a solid 10-2 record, and ended up #6 in the BCS rating and our Top 25. But because they were the third-highest rated team in the conference, they were ineligible for a BCS bowl. Because of the dominance of the West division of the SEC, they were #6 in the nation but only #3 in their own division.
Arkansas played strong offense all year and average defense, with a lapse against Troy being their only bad performance on offense and defense all season. They did seem to have a problem putting away a few teams they underestimated, Troy and Mississippi (and perhaps Vanderbilt, too). They shouldn't have the same issue against Kansas State, unless they start thinking that LSU and Alabama are the only teams that can beat them.
Kansas St's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- E. Kentucky 10-7
- Kent St 37-0
- @ Miami FL 28-24
- #15 Baylor 36-35
- Missouri 24-17
- @ Texas Tech 41-34
- @ Kansas 59-21
- #21 Oklahoma 17-58
- @ #3 Oklahoma St 45-52
- Texas A&M 53-50 4OT
- @ Texas 17-13
- Iowa St 30-23
Kansas State played two horrible games this season, but that doesn't correspond to their 10-2 record.
The first awful game was their opening win hosting FCS team Eastern Kentucky. The Colonels ended up 7-5 and #145 overall in our All-Division power rating, meaning they were worse than 1-11 Indiana, 2-10 Idaho, and closest to 3-9 Central Michigan (though they rank better than 3-9 Troy, which was incidentally Arkansas' worst performance). Winning 10-7 at home is practically a tie in reality. This win was just as bad as getting beat 58-17, also at home, by Oklahoma.
By contrast, the 52-45 loss to Oklahoma State was one of their best games, particularly on offense. It wasn't a terrible defensive effort either as Oklahoma State averaged 50 points against FBS teams. Look at it this way: they scored more on the Cowboys—on the road—than Stanford did at a neutral location.
After the awful debut, Kansas State turned heads by beating Kent State as easily as Alabama had. Once they upset Miami, it was clear something was going on, and the next four wins made it clear they were really going to compete in the Big Twelve. The losses brought them to reality—no national title, and a Big Twelve title was a longshot—but they fought Texas A&M and won in 4 overtimes, held off Texas, and beat Iowa State for a 10-2 record.
Key Injuries
Both teams are basically the same as they were at season's end, with a few players back from injury. The worst loss later in the year was Kansas State's loss of wide receiver Tyler Lockett, who was a major weapon as a return man; this harms their chances of having a huge kick return play, one of the ways in which they could make up the scrimmage-play advantage Arkansas has.
Psychology/Motivation
- Arkansas's season: +0 wins; Kansas St's season: +3 wins
- Arkansas's momentum: +0 wins; Kansas St's momentum: -2 wins
- Arkansas won final game: NO; Kansas St won final game: YES
- Arkansas glad to be there? YES; Kansas St glad to be there: YES
- Arkansas coaching situation: stable; Kansas St coaching situation: stable
Does either team have a psychological edge? Kansas State had a surprisingly good season while Arkansas matched last year's record, but the Razorbacks are happy to maintain a 10-2 record with a new quarterback. Kansas State started 7-0 but can't realistically have thought they were headed for a national title. Arkansas bombed in their last game, but they lost to LSU and the large margin might have helped—they aren't thinking about one play or a missed kick that would have put them in the SEC title game. In short, both teams are glad to be at the Cotton Bowl, which is a very high-profile, quality bowl game that often outshines the worst BCS bowl in terms of matchup. Kansas State had a shot at a BCS bowl but they knew it was unlikely; perhaps they got screwed out of the Sugar Bowl, but many people didn't think they'd be going to a bowl at all.
The one psychological edge I see is for the Wildcats: that the Razorbacks might underestimate them. There's still a notion that Kansas State's success is a fluke this year, and that they drastically overachieved to get where they are. If Arkansas buys into that, they might get in trouble.
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Final analysis
It's a passing team vs. a running team, where one squad (K-State) will probably have the ball the vast majority of time, but the two teams will run about the same amount of plays from scrimmage. Arkansas should have a lot more success from scrimmage, and Kansas State has to make up for that in a number of ways including turnovers. If they don't, Arkansas could win in a rout.
Both are dangerous on kick returns as we mentioned above. They'll start with good field position due to good fielding and poor coverage on the other side. A big return could win it for either team, but Arkansas has the advantage with Lockett's absence.
Both teams only lost to other good teams: Arkansas to Alabama and LSU, K-State to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The Wildcats were blown out by 41 against Oklahoma, but they played the Cowboys very close (7 points) for a total of 48 points—exactly the combined margin Arkansas lost by.
Some single-game comparisons might be useful. For instance, if Arkansas plays the way they did in their two losses (to Alabama and LSU), and Kansas State plays like it did in their worst two games (Eastern Kentucky and Oklahoma), Arkansas will win by four touchdowns. But it's probably unfair to Kansas State to count that first game against an FCS opponent as representative. Using their two losses as a benchmark, they played about 5 points worse than Arkansas did in the Razorbacks' two losses. That's also about what you get if you compare both teams' wins over Texas A&M: Arkansas by 4 on a neutral field, Kansas State by 0, really (4 overtimes) at home.
While they certainly overachieved during their season, what Kansas State's gameplay shows is not a team whose close wins were a fluke. The close games are the norm; the Oklahoma blowout loss was the fluke. Anyone assuming a monster Arkansas win should look at the Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M games: those are all strong passing teams and Kansas State played them all very close. Oklahoma had the advantage of a strong defense, something Arkansas doesn't really have.
Arkansas could win in a blowout since they did it to Auburn and Mississippi State, but we don't expect it. What we also don't expect is a blowout win by Kansas State, as it would be their first over a decent opponent. It should be, as the oddsmakers predict, a reasonably close game with Arkansas the winner. Since we made this pick, the line has moved above our spread; are more people are going with the idea of a big Arkansas win after seeing West Virginia destroy Clemson?
Prediction: Arkansas 35, Kansas St 26
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.
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