Monday, January 9: BCS Championship in New Orleans, LA at 8:30 pm eastern
#1 Louisiana State Tigers (13-0) vs. #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)
This is it—the rematch that not everyone has been waiting for. This time on LSU's turf for all intents and purposes, the Tigers have to "prove it" as if it were a game of HORSE.
Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 1 (over/under 40)
The oddsmakers don't agree on this one; Alabama is a 1 to 2 point favorite in most sportsbooks, but some list LSU by 1. A very low score is predicted, but another 9-6 game is not expected.
| Game-comparisons | win % | w/HFA |
| LSU | 55.7% | 63% |
| Alabama | 44.3% | 37% |
LSU and Alabama are the top two teams in the nation in our FBS-only Strength Power Rating. In the All-Divisions version, which includes games against FCS schools, Alabama drops a notch to #3 behind Oklahoma State. That's why LSU has a fairly wide lead in the game-comparison system: Alabama's win over Georgia Southern was their worst game. LSU has an even stronger chance if we add in home field advantage.
Excluding FCS games, the comparison is a lot more even: 52% for LSU, but still 62% if home field advantage is added. With the game held so close to both teams' home fields, there is some question as to how much home field advantage LSU will have, but playing in-state they should have some edge.
Both teams' ratings gained during the bowl season due to the generally solid performance of the SEC, but LSU in particular got a boost from non-conference victim West Virginia's 70-33 thrashing of Clemson.
Strength Power Rating: LSU 25, Alabama 20 Tempo-free: LSU 24, Alabama 19
Our power rating's expected margin for LSU is between 2 and 5 points depending on how much home field advantage LSU gets.
These two teams have the best defenses in college football. The question is, which is #1 and which is #2? If we could just FBS (Division I-A) games, Alabama's is #1, giving up just 7.67 points to the average FBS team. LSU is #2, averaging 8.08 points yielded to the typical I-A opponent. But count all games and Alabama slips to #2, due to giving up 21 points (their season high) to Georgia Southern.
The teams have strong offenses as well, and this is where LSU has the advantage, ranking #7 to Alabama's #10. LSU scores over 42 points on an average FBS team where Alabama scores just under 41.
Both teams play at a slow tempo, both averaging 25 drives per team in their games this season. This suggests a very slow tempo game with 23 drives total, and indeed the last time they played there were only 22 drives. The tempo-corrected estimate ends up pretty close to the pure points estimate, with a point less for each team.
Yardage analysis: Alabama 17, LSU 7 per attempt: Alabama 26, LSU 21
By yardage-only methods, Alabama looks like a strong favorite. From scrimmage, the Crimson Tide is much better than the Tigers, and this is borne out by the results of the first game between the two: Alabama had 293 total yards to LSU's 239. Our computer-generated numbers say Alabama 316, LSU 230, results comparable to the first meeting. On average, those numbers will convert to a 17-7 score.
Both teams, naturally, are strong on defense, with Alabama #1 and LSU #3 here. The difference in yardage rankings come mainly from offense, where Alabama is #16 and LSU is only #52. The defensive yardage numbers align with the scoring numbers pretty well, but LSU's offense is low on yardage while being in the top 10 in scoring. Most obviously when dealing with a strong defensive teams, there is defensive scoring: LSU has returned 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles for touchdowns. They're also returned 3 kicks for touchdowns. And in addition to those non-offensive scores, when they're on offense they don't turn the ball over, having done so just 8 times this year (less than any other team). Those stats alone probably account for almost all the discrepancy between yardage and points.
Rushing/passing totals from 1st meeting vs. new projections for BCS title game:
Team Per-game Rush Per-game Pass per-carry Rush per-attempt Pass
Alabama 96 vs. 137 199 vs. 179 3.1 vs. 4.3 6.9 vs. 6.6
LSU 148 vs. 131 91 vs. 99 3.6 vs. 3.6 5.4 vs. 6.5
On a per-play basis, things look brighter for the offenses and LSU is a lot closer, losing by only 5 points. The per-attempt passing yardages are about the same—about 6 1/2 yards per play—but Alabama has an advantage in per-carry rushing, about 4.3 to 3.6 yards. Compared to the first game, where Alabama averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and 3.1 per rush, and LSU 5.4 and 3.6, the rushing figure for Alabama and the passing number for LSU look optimistic, while Alabama's passing and LSU's rushing estimates jibe with what we saw on November 5th.
Yardage + interceptions + kick returns: Alabama 14, LSU 9
As we noted before, LSU is phenomenal at kick returns and avoiding turnovers. This non-scrimmage yardage, and the game-changing plays their defense and special teams makes, closes the gap of the yardage estimate from 10 points to just 5.
Alabama's kick return team is good, with receiver Marquis Maze ranking high on both punts and kickoffs. But LSU's coverage is great; they're #1 against the punt and haven't given up a touchdown on a kick return this year. Meanwhile, one LSU corner, Tyrann Mathieu is the #4 rated punt returner (2 TDs) and the other, Morris Claiborne, is the #13 kickoff returner (1 TD). Alabama is solid on punt coverage but has given up 2 touchdowns on kickoffs. LSU gets the edge here in a matchup where field position is everything.
LSU has better odds of getting multiple interceptions than the Tide; the advantage translates to an expected 3 point gain for the Tigers.
In the November 5th game, both teams had 2 interceptions, and neither had any big kickoff returns; in fact, no punts were returned for any yardage at all.
When LSU has the ball
| LSU rushing offense: #13 |
Alabama rushing defense: #1 |
The run is LSU's main weapon, but unfortunately for them it's Alabama's calling card on defense, in a big way. The Crimson Tide rushing defense isn't just #1, it's #1 by a very wide margin. Corrected for opposition, they allow just 50 yards per game on the ground. The next closest? LSU, at 75. Those are the yardages expected by an average rushing offense. The Tide are also #1 in per-carry defense, allowing 2.3 yards per play to the average rushing offense.
LSU's rushing offense is quite a bit above average and should get around 130 yards. Perhaps a bit more: they did manage 148 in the first meeting, the biggest total Alabama allowed all season by an FBS schools (Georgia Southern's triple option had an anomalous 302)
Michael Ford, Spencer Ware, and Alfred Blue led the team this year with 755, 700, and 539 yards, combining for 22 touchdowns. Ware had the most carries (174) but the lowest (4.0) average, while Ford and Blue both averaged over 6 yards. Blue had no carries against Alabama on November 5th, while Ford had 72 yards and Ware just 29 on 16 carries. Maybe we will see more of Ford and less of Ware this time around, as well as more of QB Jordan Jefferson, who had 43 yards.
And knowing Les Miles, he might try to throw in some triple option against the Tide.
| LSU passing offense: #103 | Alabama passing defense: #3 per att: #1 |
| LSU interceptions thrown ranking: #3 | Alabama interceptions picked ranking: #29 |
| LSU quarterback protection rank: #16 | Alabama pass rush rank: #26 |
Not a lot of passing goes on in the LSU offense, relatively speaking. Jarrett Lee was the starter in the early games with Jordan Jefferson suspended, then remained the starter until he threw two interceptions against Alabama. Since then he's thrown five passes total, but he led the team for the year with 1,306 yards. Jefferson has 684 yards, including 208 yards against Arkansas but only 30 yards in the win over Georgia. It's doubtful LSU can beat Alabama with 30 passing yards, and playing Lee so little—no pass attemtps in the last two games—might come back to bite the coaching staff.
Top receivers Reuben Randle (904 yards) and Odell Beckham (437) have the bulk of receptions (86 between them) for the team, and Randle's 8 TD catches are double the next best. Alabama's passing defense is nearly as good as their rushing defense: it's #3 in adjusted per-game yardage and #1 in adjusted per-attempt yardage. Unless LSU passes more than normal they'll be held under 100 yards; in the previous meeting they had just 99.
Despite the two picks against the Tide, Lee has a great TD:int ratio this year of 14:3. Jefferson's is good, too, at 6:1, and Alabama's two interceptions last game was an anomaly; we think they'll have 0 or 1 this time around. Alabama has a good pass rush and LSU has good protection; the numbers say 1 or 2 sacks for the upcoming game. But those numbers are heavy on Lee at quarterback (4 sacks in 167 attempts). If Jefferson (10 sacks in 83 attempts) plays the whole game, there could be a lot more. Alabama only had one sack in the last meeting, so 2 is probably about right.
When Alabama has the ball
| Alabama rushing offense: #14 |
LSU rushing defense: #2 |
Another matchup of a top 25 rushing offense vs. a very top rushing defense. In this case, though, Alabama's offense has the bigger weapon—Trent Richardson, who rushed for 1,583 yards this season and 20 touchdowns. Eddie Lacy added 631 with a 7.5 yard average. On a per-carry basis, Alabama is the #2 team in the nation when corrected for the defenses they've faced. LSU held them below 100 yards last time but our estimate for this game is nearly 140.
| Alabama passing offense: #58 | LSU passing defense: #8 per att: #4 |
| Alabama interceptions thrown ranking: #31 | LSU interceptions picked ranking: #11 |
| Alabama quarterback protection rank: #33 | LSU pass rush rank: #12 |
A.J. McCarron threw for 2,400 yards and 16 touchdowns, completing 2/3 of his passes. Marquis Maze was his only real go-to target, with 627 yards, but Richardson was dependable (327) and eight others finished with 100 or more yards. The Tiger pass defense boasts two all-American corners in Mathieu and Claiborne and rank in the top ten in both per-game and per-attempt adjusted defense. Alabama had 199 yards last time around, and should have around 180 this time.
LSU's defense intercepts a lot of passes, too, and gets a lot of sacks. Claiborne has six interceptions, with one taken back for a touchdown. Linemen Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo have 16 sacks combined. McCarron isn't reckless with the ball, with just 5 interceptions this year, though Maze threw one last time against the Tigers. Look for LSU to get another one this game, with a slim chance of getting 2. Bama's line is solid (15 sacks allowed) and will probably give up 2 sacks like they did last game.
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LSU's season (13-0)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (9)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (5)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)
- #9 Oregon 40-27
- Northwestern St 49-3
- @ Mississippi St 19-6
- @ #25 West Virginia 47-21
- Kentucky 35-7
- Florida 41-11
- @ Tennessee 38-7
- Auburn 45-10
- @ #2 Alabama 9-6 OT
- Western Kentucky 42-9
- @ Mississippi 52-3
- #6 Arkansas 41-17
- @ #22 Georgia 42-10
LSU played better than expected from the start, knocking out a strong Oregon team in the opener and continuing to roll over their opponents. First they established that the defense was good; then they started putting up outrageous point totals even when their offense wasn't so fearsome.
By the time they met Alabama they'd put up 40+ points five times. They were shut down on offense by the Tide but managed to win the game despite that. They fell behind against Arkansas and Georgia and rallied to win blowouts. They beat Georgia despite passing for just 30 yards, and scored 40 or more in their last four games—the last three of which were arguably their best performances, given the opponents and the final scores.
LSU just seems to win. At some point it the season started to look like Ohio State's 2002 championship run, without the numerous close calls. Instead of just getting the offense they needed to win, they blew teams away. Although in some of the blowouts, they didn't get much offense—but they still got a lot of points. More than any other team, LSU gets a big interception or kick return exactly when they need it. If a team is running on magic this year, it's the Tigers.
Alabama's season (11-1)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)
- Kent St 48-7
- @ #23 Penn State 27-11
- North Texas 41-0
- #6 Arkansas 38-14
- @ Florida 38-10
- Vanderbilt 34-0
- @ Mississippi 52-7
- Tennessee 37-6
- #1 LSU 6-9 OT
- @ Mississippi St 24-7
- Georgia Southern 45-21
- @ Auburn 42-14
Alabama got a lot of crap earlier in the season for having so few defeats over winning FBS teams (two at the time). They went on the beat Auburn for a third, and now Florida and Mississippi State count due to their bowl wins, and in all beating six bowl-bound teams is pretty good.
Things started to get boring right away watching the Tide this season. Clearly outmatching their foes on both sides of the ball, they wiped out teams with great defenses (Penn State) and offenses (Arkansas) alike, never allowing more than two touchdowns by an offense (Georgia Southern's third TD came on a kick return). They even held Auburn's offense scoreless (one defensive touchdown, another on a kick return).
The loss to LSU at home had to sting, and the offense seemed to lose confidence for a bit, limping to 24 points against Mississippi State while the defense allowed way too much from Georgia Southern, but the Auburn game got them pepped up to get revenge on those Tigers.
If they have the same attitude for revenge against the LSU Tigers, they could take home the BCS trophy. Their late penchant for giving up kick return touchdowns is troublesome, however, especially when they'll be facing such a great return team.
Key Injuries
Both teams have had a long time to recover for this game: Alabama has had 44 days, LSU 36. Both teams list a few players as probable.
Psychology/Motivation
- LSU's season: +2 wins; Alabama's season: +2 wins
- LSU's momentum: +0 wins; Alabama's momentum: -1 win
- LSU won final game: YES; Alabama won final game: YES
- LSU glad to be there? YES; Alabama glad to be there: YES
- LSU coaching situation: stable; Alabama coaching situation: stable
While the Crimson Tide will certainly be looking for payback for the November 5 loss, you would think that the Tigers would be bummed at having to beat Alabama not once, and in Tuscaloosa, but twice in the same season to prove they're the best team. But there doesn't seem to be any of that. LSU seems to want to play Alabama again, just to have the chance to beat them twice. This is important.
Alabama on the other hand appears to be indignant that LSU won the first game, as if they took away something that was rightly Alabama's. I'm reminded of the Miami wins over Oklahoma in the mid-80s, where the Canes kept beating the Sooners, who were held up as the nation's best before each defeat. "No way they can beat us three times in a row!" one Sooner player said, before the third straight defeat.
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Final analysis
On paper, you can see how Alabama can win this game. Even if you look at their first meeting—where Alabama lost, at home—it's not hard to see how the Tide win. Make their field goals, instead of missing four. Have a bit of luck, instead of a near-touchdown pass turned into an interception. Win the total yardage battle, but also win on the scoreboard.
That said, LSU is now officially (by power ratings anyway) the better team, and with the game venue switching to New Orleans, so does the home field advantage at the very least depart the Tide and perhaps too swing to the Tigers. This is anybody's game.
Will the defenses dominate as in the first game? Probably not quite as much. First off, it's hard to imagine a more defensive battle than the last game—it was sort of an outlier. Second, when the teams prepare they will look at what didn't work and try to fix it, and for the defenses there isn't much that went wrong. In that way, the offenses have the advantage in terms of improvement, with nowhere to go but up. Our half-joke about Les Miles installing the triple option, hoping to replicate Georgia Southern's success might not be so far-fetched.
It's already been proven that everything can go to plan for Alabama from scrimmage but the game can get away. Maybe the same thing can happen to LSU? If we look at the last rematched national championship game in 1996, where Florida avenged a narrow (24-21) regular-season FSU win with a 54-20 blowout, is it Alabama's time for revenge? I think those circumstances were very different. For one, FSU won the first game at home, then lost on the road. And second, Florida felt that FSU had cheap-shotted their quarterback dozens of times in the first game. At home, they gave payback. That's not how this game's dynamic is set up at all.
Alabama lost the first game at home. They're thinking they can return the favor on the road. But LSU's attitude all year has been pretty amazing: play football, have fun, and win. A seemingly more enjoyable approach than Alabama's businesslike stance. This attitude comes from the top down, from their head coaches. I think LSU will come into the game loose, and Alabama will be tight. In New Orleans, loose beats tight every time.
Prediction: LSU 23, Alabama 10
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.
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