Saturday, January 7: FCS Championship in Frisco, TX at 1:00 pm eastern
#1 Sam Houston State Bearkats (14-0) vs. #2 North Dakota State Bison (13-1)
The top two seeds meet in the #1 seed's home state.
Vegas line/spread: North Dakota State by 1 (over/under 46)
The lines for this game have been mixed; most punted and listed "pick'em" for a while, but on game day a consensus have the Bison favored by a point.
| Game-comparisons | win % | w/HFA |
| Sam Houston St | 49% | 55% |
| N Dakota St | 51% | 45% |
North Dakota State outranks Sam Houston State in our Strength Power Rating (the All-Division version, of course, which includes FCS teams), but since the game is being played so relatively close to home for the latter, they end up the favorite when home field advantage is factored in.
North Dakota State is #62 in our power ratings, or #1 in the FCS, while Sam Houston State is #73, or #2. So the Bison are essentially an average FBS team, and the Bearkats just a bit below average, and they are the top two FCS teams.
Interestingly, if we don't split and recombine offensive and defensive performances—that is, if we just look at each team's 14 game performances, to create 196 comparisons—North Dakota State wins 59% of the trials, and still wins 52% with home field to Sam Houston.
Strength Power Rating: Sam Houston St 23, N Dakota St 22
Sam Houston State's adjusted scoring offense (#71) is better than North Dakota State's (#100), but the Bison have the advantage on defense, #35 to #64. In fact, the North Dakota State defense is nearly top 25 quality for Division I-A, and is easily the best in the FCS. Sam Houston State's is #3 in the FCS. On offense the Bearkats are #2 in the FCS and the Bison #13. Youngstown State, the only team to beat North Dakota State, is #1, and Georgia Southern, a team the Bison beat easily, is #3.
Mostly because of North Dakota State's profile (great defense, lower-powered offense) the game is expected to be low scoring, and due to home field advantage Sam Houston State comes out a point ahead.
Yardage analysis: Sam Houston 19, N Dakota St 17
Sam Houston State ranks #21 in total yardage (raw values, unadjusted for opposition) and #4 in total defense. North Dakota State is #62 in offensive yardage and #24 in defensive yardage yielded. Naturally, with the Bearkats holding an advantage in both categories, they would be the projected winner by a yardage comparison if their competition level had been the same; here the advantage we calculate is around 13 points, 27-14, after yardages are adjusted for home field advantage.
But they haven't played the same level of competition. When we do that (for the FCS, we take the yardage totals we estimated, and adjust based on how the Strength Power Rating adjusted their scoring offense and defense). We end up with a much closer estimate in yardage, with Sam Houston just a 2-point winner, completely accounted for by the home field advantage we're giving them.
When Sam Houston St has the ball
| Sam Houston St rushing offense: #4 |
N Dakota St rushing defense: #19 |
Sam Houston State lives by the run, with Tim Flanders going over 1,500 yards for the year so far and Richard Sincere nearly at 1,000 himself. The two combine for 31 touchdowns, 22 from Flanders. North Dakota State's rushing defense is strong, and is probably good enough to slow down the Bearkats considerably. Sam Houston State averages 263 yards per game while North Dakota State yields 120, while the FCS average is 150; the raw, unadjusted figures suggest that the Bearkats would go over 233 yards against the Bison, but accounting for schedule strength we estimate the Bison will hold them to just under 200.
| Sam Houston St passing offense: #103 | N Dakota St passing defense: #52 per att: #35 |
| Sam Houston St interceptions thrown ranking: #6 | N Dakota St interceptions picked ranking: #6 |
| Sam Houston St quarterback protection rank: #5 | N Dakota St pass rush rank: #19 |
Sam Houston doesn't throw a lot compared to the run, but they do so pretty efficiently. Brian Bell had nearly 2,000 yards through the air with 20 touchdowns and just 5 picks. No receiver was above 500 yards but Sincere and Flanders combined for 853 yards and 6 TD catches.
Sam Houston averages 154 yards per game and North Dakota State yields 203, while the FCS average is about 205. That implies Sam Houston would gain about their normal amount, but when we try to adjust for schedule strength we get closer to 125 yards for the Bearkats.
If the Bearkats need to go to the air more, they should be in decent shape even though North Dakota State's defense is solid in terms of interceptions and pass rush. Sam Houston can defend their pass rush pretty well, and Bell is careful with the ball. The Bison sacked the quarterback 38 times and picked off 19 passes; Bell has only been sacked 9 times this year.
When North Dakota St has the ball
| N Dakota St rushing offense: #35 |
Sam Houston St rushing defense: #1 |
Like Sam Houston State, North Dakota State runs the ball. Sam Ojuri and D.J. McNorton combined for over 2,000 yards and 24 touchdowns, pretty evenly. North Dakota State averages 177 yards per game while Sam Houston State yields just 70; before accounting for schedule strength that implies about 100 yards for the Bison, but after adjustment that figure is bumped up slightly, to 110 yards. Either way, the Bison running game should face a strong challenge and, like most teams that face the Bearkats, could be forced to throw the ball more.
| N Dakota St passing offense: #80 | Sam Houston St passing defense: #74 per att: #7 |
| N Dakota St interceptions thrown ranking: #2 | Sam Houston St interceptions picked ranking: #1 |
| N Dakota St quarterback protection rank: #25 | Sam Houston St pass rush rank: #51 |
Bison QB Brock Jenson completed 68% of his passes for 2,404 yards and 13 TDs with just 3 picks. Unlike Sam Houston, the Bison do have a go-to receiver in Warren Holloway, who has 75 catches for 988 yards and 8 TDs. Ryan Smith adds 502 yards.
North Dakota State averages 176 yards per game and Sam Houston yields 213. Adjusting for opponents faced, the Bison should have just over 200 yards through the air. But Sam Houston State's great per-play numbers might put that in question.
Sam Houston State leads the FCS in interceptions (22 this season), but North Dakota State doesn't throw many at all (just 3 this year), so it should make for an interesting dynamic in the passing game. The Bison will likely not face great pressure from the Bearkats, though it's hard to compare raw, unadjusted figures and reach confident conclusions.
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Sam Houston St's season (14-0)
Wins vs. winning teams (6)
Wins vs. playoff teams (4)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)
- Western Illinois 20-6
- Central Arkansas 31-10
- @ New Mexico (FBS) 48-45 OT
- Texas-San Antonio 22-7
- = Stephen F. Austin 45-10
- Nicholls St 47-7
- @ McNeese St 38-14
- Lamar 66-0
- @ SE Louisiana St 38-9
- Northwestern St 43-17
- @ Texas St-San Marcos 36-14
- Stony Brook 34-27
- Montana St 49-13
- Montana 31-28
What can we say? Sam Houston State pretty much cleaned up this year. And it started early on, as they beat their key conference rival Central Arkansas convincingly early, then edging FBS doormat New Mexico on the road.
After that they cruised through the conference foes and nearby rivals, finishing 11-0 before they playoffs. They escaped the first game against Stony Brook, dominated Montana State, and again had trouble before holding off Montana, with Tim Flanders ripping the Grizzlies for 287 yards.
The Bearkat offense wasn't all that dominant early on, with poor games against Western Illinois and UTSA, but other than that they've scored 31 or more in every outing. Their defense against New Mexico was terrible; even as they beat the only FCS team on their schedule, it rates as their worst overall performance this year.
N Dakota St's season (13-1)
Wins vs. winning teams (6)
Wins vs. playoff teams (4)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)
- Lafayette 42-6
- St Francis PA 56-3
- @ Minnesota (FBS) 37-24
- Illinois St 20-10
- @ Southern Illinois 9-3
- Missouri St 51-21
- @ South Dakota St 38-14
- Northern Iowa 27-19
- @ Indiana St 27-16
- Youngstown St 24-27
- @ Western Illinois 37-21
- James Madison 26-14
- Lehigh 24-0
- Georgia Southern 35-7
After just two games, North Dakota State served notice that they had the best defense in the FCS, as they beat Lafayette and St. Francis PA by a combined 98-9. In fact, they ranked as the best FCS team overall in the Strength Power Rating.
They proved it to some by beating Minnesota convincingly on the road, and though it took some time, they eventually reached the #1 spot in the polls. Beating conference rival Northern Iowa helped a lot, as the Panthers were only the 2nd team on their slate that ended up with a winning record. Indiana State was the 3rd, but then they were upset by Youngstown State, at home, too.
They made the playoffs, however, where they've taken care of business, handling James Madison and thrashing Lehigh and Georgia Southern in two of their best games—and their best defensive performances of the year.
Psychology/Motivation
- Sam Houston St's season: +5 wins; N Dakota St's season: +3 wins
- Sam Houston St's momentum: +0 wins; N Dakota St's momentum: -1 win
- Sam Houston St won final game: YES; N Dakota St won final game: YES
- Sam Houston St glad to be there? YES; N Dakota St glad to be there: YES
North Dakota State made the playoffs last year, but fell just before the finals, 38-31 in overtime to eventual champ Eastern Washington; meanwhile Sam Houston State was just 6-5 last year. While the Bearkats have made a bigger stride, teams like the Bison that come up just short often have much more focus when they reach the goal they've thought about all year. Sam Houston didn't know they'd be here until they got here, and their young team could be in a bit over their heads.
But in short, both teams are usually pretty hyped up for a title game. It just depends on how that hype plays out on the field.
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Final analysis
The teams come out pretty evenly by our analysis. North Dakota State looks like the slightly better team overall, with a particular advantage on defense. Sam Houston State's offense looks better.
The Bison have played the tougher schedule, averaging #151 to #192 in the nation. The Bison win at Minnesota is much more impressive than the Bearkat overtime win at New Mexico. But Sam Houston State never tripped up and lost, like North Dakota State did against Youngstown State.
The Bison have the edge in experience, having gone to the brink of the title game last year before being turned back; now that they're here, where they thought they should have been last year, they should be focused on the task at hand. Sam Houston State went from 6-5 to the title game. This could give North Dakota State a real advantage, though Sam Houston's attitude could put less pressure on them. If the Bearkats keep riding the wave they've been on, and North Dakota State feels they've shed last year's demons just by making the finals, the edge goes to the Bearkats.
Sam Houston also has a practical home field advantage, playing in Texas just hours from home. Both teams sold their ticket allotment but it's probably fair to say that the bulk of the rest of the sales are to Bearkats fans in nearby areas. The home field advantage is what turns all of our data analyses to the Bearkats by a slim margin.
So what do we conclude? With so many figures (everything other than points) not adjusted for opposition, it's like flying blind to compare these two teams. We adjusted the yardage figures as best we could, and came up with a virtual tie there, too, so we assume we got it close to right. Ultimately, we will look at which team faced the tougher opponents, and that was North Dakota State. Overall their competition was tougher, and their FBS opponent was a lot tougher. They both played a tough team to get to the final, and North Dakota State was dominant, Sam Houston not nearly so.
Does that outweight home field advantage? Maybe not. But looking at the weather forecast for Frisco, it's supposed to be 56 degrees on Saturday. That's not normal Texas football weather for the heart of the season. It is normal North Dakota weather for October. So in some ways the Bison will feel as much at home as the Bearkats. They've also been more dominant in the playoffs, particularly on defense. We'll take them by a point. If they didn't peak a game early, the Bison should be the FCS champs.
Prediction: North Dakota State 21, Sam Houston State 20
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.
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The only thing I disagree with you one in the analysis is that the Bearcats will have the home field advantage. I would put money on number of Bison fans in the stadium, I will bet it is over 50% Bison fans. They are a historically good team that has fans that travel well. This will bring the people to a warm stadium in January.
Posted by: Kevin | January 06, 2012 at 11:18 AM
Good point, Kevin, but are there enough people in North Dakota to fill more than half the stadium? Just kidding
In the end I think we pretty much disregarded the effects of home field advantage anyway...but it will be interesting to see what the fan mix is in Frisco.
Posted by: SportsRatings | January 06, 2012 at 12:34 PM
I'll be surprised if the Bearkats score more than 14 points against a great defense. NDSU has the weapons to wear opponents down. I think we only have to look to the last game to see what the vaunted running attack of Georgia Southern was supposed to do and they were stopped cold as was LeHigh with their heralded passser. On the other hand, it doesn't appear the Bearkats have the defense to stop the Bison who will wear ya down, wear ya down, wear ya down...you get the idea.
28-14 NDSU.
Posted by: Burk | January 06, 2012 at 01:31 PM
Bison 17 Bearkats 6
If DJ Mc Norton, running for a 50 yard touchdown and with nothing but the enzone in front of him, doesn't flat out drop the ball on about the 10 or 15 yard line, they would be 15-0. Youngstown recovered and turned that unforced fumble into a touch.
Posted by: John | January 09, 2012 at 09:10 PM