SportsRatings: College Football

2012 Pre-season Rankings: #1 USC Trojans

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

USC Trojans  (Pac-12 #1; South #1)

#1	2011 Results	Record: 10-2	Strength:#11  Success:#15  Overall:#12
		AP #6  USA N/A	Bowl: None (ineligible in 2011)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 11-1	Picks: Lindy's #2; Athlon #1; Steele #3
		AP #1  USA #3	Bowl: BCS Championship (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

One year removed from a bowl ban the Trojans could be in line for a national title.

Offense 9 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #16 (raw) #16 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #2 (adjusted)

With a Heisman candidate quarterback, a great wide receiver duo, and a timely transfer give USC one of the nation's top offenses.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #15 (raw) #13 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #2
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #4 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #1

Matt Barkley is already #3 on USC's all-time yardage list, with around 3,000 yards to go to pass #2 Matt Leinart and #1 Carson Palmer. Both of them are Heisman Trophy winners, and Barkley is the pre-season front-runner. He had 3,528 yards last year with 39 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions. Just as amazing is USC's wide receiver duo of Robert Woods and Marqise Lee who both had over 1,000 yards and combined for 26 touchdown catches. The offensive line allowed just 8 sacks last year and if they can better that they will as four starters are back. The USC passing game will be one of the best in 2012.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #53 (raw) #48 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #12 (adj.)

Curtis McNeal rushed for 1,005 yards and 6 touchdowns last year and he's back while Marc Tyler (568 yards) departs. But late in the off-season the rich got richer as Silas Redd transferred from Penn State. Redd had 1,241 yards and 7 touchdowns last year and is immediately eligible, giving USC it's usual tandem 1-2 (sometimes 1-2-3) punch. Four starters—Khaled Holmes, John Martinez, Kevin Graf, and Marcus Martin—are back from last year's offensive line. The ground game was fairly pedestrian last year but with Redd and McNeal it should be one of the best.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #13    Pass Defense  per-game: #73   Per-attempt: #21
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #47 (raw) #14 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #18	'11 picks: #87
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #15 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #21	'12 picks: #69

USC's defense is strong at linebacker where co-tackle leaders Hayes Pullard and Dion Bailey are back. The secondary had four starters back until Isiah Wiley was lost to academics. Still, T.J. McDonald, Nickell Robey, and Jawanza Starling return and look for more than last year's 9 interceptions. If USC's defense has a weakness this year it's the defensive line where only one starter is back at most. They lose Nick Perry (9.5 sacks) and part-time starter Devon Kennard was lost to a pectoral muscle tear. Overall the defense is probably as good as it was last year but some areas are better than others.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Andre Heidari made 15 of 17 field goals last year and he's back along with punter Kyle Negrete (40.1 average).
• Return Game:  Robert Woods returned both kickoffs and punts last year, while Marqise Lee had the only touchdown return on a kickoff and Nickell Robey the best average (11.0) on punts. All are back.
• Turnovers projection:  USC could see a small improvement in fumble margin and interceptions gained on defense. Barkley might even throw fewer picks, but he's got it down pretty far (7) already.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #13          2011 Recruiting Rank: #2
Lane Kiffin was starting to get some kudos around the country for maturing and basically, being less of a dick. Then came the reports that, after he said he wouldn't vote USC #1, he voted them #1. He pulled out of the coaches poll over it. We're not sure the USA-Today should have revealed his vote, but the whole thing makes you wonder if he's really less of a dick or is just hiding it better. He's certainly recruiting well. Despite a 15-player limit over three years, he managed to bring in a near-top-10 class after last year's huge, almost-#1 class.

2011 Recap 
It didn't start out looking like a turnaround season for the Trojans. Banned from the post-season, it looked like USC would sleepwalk through the season after they almost blew a lead against Minnesota at home (19-17) and hardly dominated Utah (23-14). When they were spanked by Arizona State 43-22 it looked like another 8-5 season was on its way. But they persevered and beat Arizona, then topped Notre Dame 31-17 on the road, and most impressively took Stanford into 3 overtimes before losing. By the end of the year they were beating Oregon 38-35 and blasted UCLA 50-0, and were playing like a top ten team.

2012 Outlook

USC 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Hawaii	99%	W
9/8	Sat	@	Syracuse	99%	W
9/15	Sat	@	*Stanford	71%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	*California	96%	W
10/4	Thu	@	*Utah	85%	W
10/13	Sat	@	*Washington	93%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	99%	W
10/27	Sat	@	*Arizona	97%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	78%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	99%	W
11/17	Sat	@	*UCLA	94%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	87%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 11-1  Undefeated: 32%

 

This season USC will be expected to be good right off the bat, and there are only a few teams that can challenge them. One is Stanford on the road, but the Cardinal have lost a lot more than the Trojans. Likewise Oregon, who has to play in Pasadena. Notre Dame also comes to town late in the year.

USC has a good shot at going undefeated this year, their only problem—as has been pointed out lately—is depth. For example they have two great receivers and not much proven beyond that. Matt Barkley will be backed up by freshmen, so he better stay healthy.

If injuries start to build over the course of the season the Trojans could be in trouble, as they are limited to 75 scholarship players of which there are currently 70.

But if USC somehow handles that, they have about a 1 in 3 chance of going undefeated. They have about a 40% chance of going 11-1. That's a 70% chance of 11 or 12 wins. Assuming they win the South division they'd play in the Pac-12 title game (vs. Oregon) and if they do that, probably the BCS championship game against Alabama.

If attrition occurs over the season, will they have enough at the end to beat Notre Dame, Oregon, and Alabama back to back to back? It's probably a good thing for them the title game isn't played until about January 10th these days.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #2 Alabama Crimson Tide

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Alabama Crimson Tide  (SEC #1; West #1)

#2	2011 Results	Record: 12-1	Strength:#1  Success:#2  Overall:#1
		AP #1  USA #1	Bowl: Beat LSU 21-0 (BCS Championship)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #3; Athlon #3; Steele #4
		AP #2  USA #2	Bowl: BCS Championship (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Alabama is just a few points away from being as good as last year; will it be enough to repeat as national champs?

Offense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #20 (raw) #11 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #16 (adjusted)

Losing Trent Richardson and a slew of receivers knocks the offense down a bit, but not all that much.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #71 (raw) #57 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #32
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #57 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #31

A.J. McCarron is a game-management quarterback like his predecessor Greg McElroy. Last year McCarron showed good accuracy (67%) and caution (5 interceptions) but no gaudy numbers (2,634 passing yards, 16 touchdowns). This year he loses his top four pass catchers—Marquis Maze (627 yards) and three others who combined for over 1,000. Kenny Bell is the leading returnee with 255, and highly-touted Duron Carter ended up at Florida Atlantic. The offensive line should be strong again, however, and other receivers will step up with help from a more experienced McCarron. Not much is asked of the passing game and it will remain average and efficient.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #16 (raw) #13 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #19 (adj.)

Trent Richardson had a near-Heisman worthy 2012, rushing for 1,679 yards and 21 touchdowns. With his absence Eddie Lacy will be the feature back; he had 674 yards last year with a 7.1 average. Jalston Fowler (385 yards) should be a strong backup. The offensive line returns 4 of the 5 most-frequent starters as Barrett Jones, Chance Warmack, and D.J. Fluker are back with Anthony Steen. The ground game might not match what it did with Richardson present as Lacy has lingering injury issues, but it should be nearly as strong.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #1    Pass Defense  per-game: #1   Per-attempt: #1
Defense 4 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #1 (raw) #1 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #16	'11 picks: #27
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #1 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #45	'12 picks: #43

Alabama has had the best scoring defense three years running. Can they again, despite losing so many starters on this side of the ball? We can look back at 2010 for the answer. That year Alabama lost 9 defensive starters from their 2009 championship team. By the end of the season, they once again had the best opponent-adjusted scoring defense. Last year's defense was even better than that 2009 defense, and they return more starters. So the answer is, yes, it is possible.

Last year's defense was 1st against the run and #1 against the pass, either on per-game or per-play adjusted figures (for completeness' sake, yes, they were also #1 against the run on a per-play basis). And of course, they had the #1 scoring defense, raw or adjusted. This year you'll notice a lot of slippage in some areas. Sacks: the pass rush will not be as strong. That's largely due to losing Courtney Upshaw (9.5 sacks) at linebacker. They also lose #1 tackler Dont'a Hightower there, while Nico Johnson returns. The 3-man defensive line is in good shape, however, with two starters back. The secondary loses three starters including Mark Barron and DeQuan Menzie (11 pass breakups); we project fewer interceptions this season.

Our verdict? Alabama was far ahead of everyone on defense; only LSU came close at all, and they lost Tyrann Mathieu. The Tide D has done it three years in a row, so it's up to someone else to prove they're better.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Alabama had trouble on field goals outside the 40, making only 4 of 15. Cade Foster handled the longer kicks and was 2 of 9, while Jeremy Shelley was 21 of 27 overall. Both are back along with punter Cody Mandell (39.3 average).
• Return Game:  Marquise Maze had a great 28.5 average on kickoff returns and 13.2 on punts with one touchdown last year. Taking over will be Christian Jones.
• Turnovers projection:  Alabama's defense will probably have fewer interceptions this year as a result of turnover in the secondary (no pun intended).

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #3          2011 Recruiting Rank: #3
Nick Saban apparently plans on keeping Alabama a dynasty as he just brought in another top 5 recruiting class. Safety Landon Collins from Louisiana is one of the top recruits at safety in the nation and should help out on the secondary this season.

2011 Recap
Things started to get boring right away watching the Tide last season. Clearly outmatching their foes on both sides of the ball, they wiped out teams with great defenses (Penn State 27-11) and offenses (Arkansas 38-14) alike, never allowing more than two touchdowns by an offense (Georgia Southern's third TD came on a kick return). They even held Auburn's offense scoreless (42-14, with one defensive touchdown, another on a kick return). The loss to LSU at home had to sting, and the offense seemed to lose confidence for a bit, limping to 24 points against Mississippi State while the defense allowed way too much from Georgia Southern, but the Auburn game got them pepped up to get revenge on the Tigers, which they did, using their dominant defense—and Nick Saban outcoaching Les Miles—to get a 21-0 win.

2012 Outlook

Alabama 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	N	Michigan	72%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	99%	W
9/15	Sat	@	*Arkansas	72%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	99%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	99%	W
10/13	Sat	@	*Missouri	79%	W
10/20	Sat	@	*Tennessee	87%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	96%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*LSU	46%	L
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	90%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	Western Carolina	100%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	95%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Undefeated: 13%

 

Ok, we understand—it's tough playing in the SEC It guarantees upward of 8 tough games during the season. And Michigan is a legit BCS conference school. But really, does even that justify scheduling two schools from the Sun Belt, in addition to an FCS school?

Between those three games and Mississippi, that's virtually four guaranteed wins for any good team. Four other games are pretty certain wins, well, because Alabama is so good. That leaves maybe four challenges: Michigan, at Arkansas, at Missouri, and of course at LSU.

Alabama and LSU are so close in ranking that the home field determines the winner, while the other three games are considered fairly wide wins for the Tide. But it's enough to reduce the cumulative projection to 10-2, even as the most likely outcome is 11-1.

Obviously the Michigan and LSU games are the big ones, and Arkansas gives them three top ten teams on the schedule. If the Tide (or any SEC team) goes undefeated they're a shoe-in for the BCS title game, and they're a good candidate with one loss—unless that loss is to an undefeated Michigan or LSU.

But as we found out last year, even the latter doesn't always apply. As our #2 team, we put Alabama in the national championship game against USC, regardless of what the game-by-game results say.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #3 Oklahoma Sooners

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Oklahoma Sooners  (Big Twelve #1)

#3	2011 Results	Record: 10-3	Strength:#7  Success:#6  Overall:#5
		AP #16  USA #15	Bowl: Beat Iowa 31-14 (Insight)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 10-2/11-1	Picks: Lindy's #4; Athlon #5; Steele #5
		AP #4  USA #4	Bowl: Fiesta (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Bobby Stoops and Oklahoma are back at it again, making another run at the national title, and hoping to avoid being tripped up again by any mediocre opponents.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #10 (raw) #7 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #3 (adjusted)

Landry Jones should overcome his 'junior slump' with a strong senior season.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #5 (raw) #6 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #3
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #5 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #5

Landry Jones is already Oklahoma's all-time passing yardage leader; he has started since his freshman year when Sam Bradford got hurt. Jones' junior year was a bit of a step back, as his yardage dropped to 4,463 (down ~250) and his completion rate fell to 63% from 66%. He had 29 touchdown passes (down 9) and 15 interceptions (up 3). Much of this occurred after Ryan Broyles (1,157 yards, 10 TDs) was lost for the last 1/3 of his senior season. Kenny Stills (849 yards) and Jaz Reynolds (715 yards; suspended 1st 3 games or so) are back and the offense got some valuable experience running without Broyles. They also got Penn State transfer Justin Brown (517 yards) and Jalen Saunders (1,065 yards at Fresno State) might be eligible this year, too. Protection was great last year (11 sacks) and will be almost that good again despite recent personnel losses. Jones should have a better year more like his sophomore season.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #51 (raw) #45 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #38 (adj.)

Dominique Whaley and Roy Finch combined for 1,232 yards roughly equally, and Whaley had 9 touchdowns. Brennan Clay added 274. All three are back, though Whaley might not be 100% early on after breaking his ankle last season. The offensive line headed into spring with just 1 starter gone from last season, but Tyler Evans was lost due to an ACL tear. They had Ben Habern (full time starter in 2010, half-time starter last year) back as well but his medical issues were too great. Gabe Ikard and Lane Johnson are back with part-time starter Adam Shead. With the recent loss of two O-line seniors and Whaley slowed early on we predict only a modest increase.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #22    Pass Defense  per-game: #43   Per-attempt: #17
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #33 (raw) #6 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #6	'11 picks: #33
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #8 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #8	'12 picks: #14

Mike Stoops is back to coach the defense after eight mostly futile years as Arizona's head coach. The big improvement on defense could be more interceptions, as three starters return to the secondary:  #1 tackler Aaron Colvin, Tony Jefferson (4 int), and Demontre Hurst (11 pass breakups). They do lose Jamell Fleming (10 pass breakups) but should be better nonetheless. At linebacker Tom Wort is back with Corey Nelson (5.5 sacks) while Travis Lewis departs. The defensive line takes a sizeable hit as Frank Alexander (8.5 sacks plus 10.5 tackles for loss) and Ronnell Lewis (5.5 sacks) are gone. Two starters are back, however, along with new starter R.J. Washington (5 of his 16 tackles were sacks). The defense might be better against the pass and a bit weaker against the run but almost as strong in total.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Mike Hunnicutt made 21 of 24 field goals last year while Tress Way averaged 42.0 yards per punt. Both are back.
• Return Game:  Kenny Stills may take over for Ryan Broyles (10.3 average) on punt returns, while Trey Franks again handles kickoffs (23.9 average). While Franks is suspended early on Dominique Whaley may have the job, but they might not risk having him there so soon after recovery from last season's injuries.
• Turnovers projection:  We assume that Landry will knock his interception rate back to where it was in 2010, and the defense should have a few more than last year, too.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #10          2011 Recruiting Rank: #30
Oklahoma's recruiting is back up where it normally is after an off year. One explanation for both rankings is the fact that top recruit WR Troy Metoyer didn't qualify last year, but did this year coming from prep school; that docked him from the 2011 class and added him to the 2012 class.

2011 Recap
Though they started the year #1 in the pre-season 2011 AP poll, Oklahoma's early-season games were a bit disappointing at the time. They crushed Tulsa but the Golden Hurricane lost just as badly to other top-tier teams. They beat high-ranked FSU in a sloppy game but the Seminoles lost their next two games, diminishing that win. Missouri had several losses by mid-season and gave the Sooners a good test. But in retrospect, Oklahoma beat five bowl-eligible teams in a row—even Ball State finished 6-6—and by the time they beat Texas 55-17, no one was doubting how good they were. They struggled with Kansas in the first half, but that was dismissed as a fluke. But they lost to Texas Tech 41-38, a loss compounded by the Red Raiders' subsequent terrible performance and 5-7 finish. In their last five games Oklahoma blew apart Kansas State and beat two more bowl teams but fell to Baylor and were obliterated by Oklahoma State 44-10. In the end they can claim wins over a stunning 8 bowl teams out of 9 wins, but show a clear vulnerability to good passing teams. And on offense, a decline in performance over the last 5 regular-season games coincided with the loss of Ryan Broyles. Oklahoma ended up in the Insight Bowl against 7-5 Iowa and won a dull game 31-14.

2012 Outlook

Oklahoma 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	@	UTEP	97%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Florida A&M	100%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	87%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	87%	W
10/13	Sat	N	*Texas	67%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	99%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	84%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Iowa State	90%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	94%	W
11/17	Sat	@	*West Virginia	78%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	80%	W
12/1	Sat	@	*TCU	83%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2/11-1  Undefeated: 18%

 

Another year, another set of high expectations for the Oklahoma Sooners. And like seemingly every year, will there be upset losses in the mid-profile games, too? Since their last national title in 2000, Oklahoma has had great teams that have inexplicably lost to mediocre squads. They lost to 4-7 Oklahoma State in 2001, 6-6 Texas A&M in 2002, 7-6 Oregon in 2006, 6-7 Colorado in 2007, and 5-7 Texas Tech last year. So when we make Oklahoma the favorite in every game this year, mostly by wide margins, keep that in the back of your mind.

Oklahoma has two bye weeks in the first five weeks of college football, before and after the Kansas State game. The Texas game is probably their biggest challenge of the year, since they play Oklahoma State and Notre Dame at home and the team will be bent on dishing out revenge to the Cowboys in any case. West Virginia on the road might be the 2nd hardest, and they finish at TCU. The good news might be that it's hard to find a mediocre team in the Big Twelve this year; maybe watch out when they play Iowa State and Baylor back-to-back.

The numbers give them a 18% chance of finishing undefeated, with an average result teetering between 10-2 and 11-1 but with 11-1 the most common outcome. As our #3 team they don't go to the national championship game but as Big Twelve winner they go to the Fiesta Bowl, where they would play Wisconsin according to our breakdown.

The NCAA was supposed to rule on Jalen Saunders but as of the start of the season hasn't; if he were eligible (instead of having to sit out a year upon transfer), it pushes Oklahoma into the top two, and into the our projected national championship game. But as of "press time" he hasn't been given the clear.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #4 LSU Tigers

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

LSU Tigers  (SEC #2; West #2)

#4	2011 Results	Record: 13-1	Strength:#3  Success:#1  Overall:#2
		AP #2  USA #2	Bowl: Lost to Alabama 21-0 (BCS championship)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #1; Athlon #2; Steele #2
		AP #3  USA #1	Bowl: Sugar Bowl (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

LSU is back and as good as ever—but can they win it all without the Honey Badger?

Offense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #17 (raw) #10 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #6 (adjusted)

LSU will still be a run-based team; if they have better passing, that's good too but not necessary.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #109 (raw) #104 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #24
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #112 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #20

Jarrett Lee had more yardage (1,306), and more touchdowns (14), but he didn't play a down in the BCS title game. Jordan Jefferson (737 yards, 6 TDs, 2 int) started the last half of the season due to his running and playmaking ability. Their combined 20:5 ratio was quite good. Both are gone, and Zach Mettenberger (8 of 11 for 92 yards, 1 TD last year) will take over. Expectations are pretty high, but then why didn't he see a down in the offensively futile BCS title game either? Top receiver Reuben Randle (917 yards, 8 TDs) is gone. #2 Odell Beckham (475) is back but Russell Shepard (190) is the only other one back who had over 100. The offensive line will protect better and over the summer the team added Penn State transfer Rob Bolden (1,360 yards, 5 TDs in 2010), but we see more of the same in a run-based offense.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #22 (raw) #15 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #4 (adj.)

Michael Ford and Spencer Ware combined for 1,463 yards and 15 touchdowns last year, while Alfred Blue and Kenny Hilliard added 875 and 15. All four are back, so QB Jefferson's 263 net yards is the biggest loss. Ford may have academic issues—particularly the early games—but we treat him as returning. With that caliber of players in the backfield and a stronger offensive line, the running game will be hard to stop. Alex Hurst, Chris Faulk, P.J. Lonergan, and Josh Williford return on the offensive line while Josh Dworaczyk started in 2010 and is back from injury.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #3    Pass Defense  per-game: #10   Per-attempt: #4
Defense 4 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #2 (raw) #2 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #13	'11 picks: #13
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #2 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #13	'12 picks: #41

The biggest news of the off-season other than the Penn State sanctions was probably the suspension of Tyrann Mathieu. The Honey Badger was the team's co-leading tackler and had 9 pass breakups and 2 interceptions, but more importantly he made several huge plays, seemingly every game, on either defense or special teams and was a first-team All-American corner.

But even without him the defense gets our #2 scoring defense nod, same as last year, and will have a strong pass rush. The secondary still has Eric Reid, co-tackle leader and also an All-American. But they lose Brandon Taylor as well as Morris Claiborne (6 interceptions) so the secondary and pass defense will clearly be weaker. Expect Tharold Simon (10 pass breakups) to step up as he moves into a starting role.

The defensive line will be devastating, however, with Sam Montgomery (9 sacks) and Barkavious Mingo (8 sacks) returning with Bennie Logan. Kevin Minter is the only starter back at linebacker where Ryan Baker is a big loss.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Drew Alleman made 16 of 18 field goals and essentially won the first game vs. Alabama for the team. He's back along with punter Brad Wing, who averaged a great 44.4 yards per punt.
• Return Game:  LSU had three touchdowns on returns last year; one was by Morris Claiborne who departs, and the other two were by Tyrann Mathieu who is also gone. Paul Turner and Odell Beckham should do a good job in replacement but Claiborne's 25.1 kickoff return average and Mathieu's 15.6 average on punts will be hard to match.
• Turnovers projection:  LSU had a great fumble margin, and that normally reverts back to the mean. Especially without Mathieu to force and/or recover them, that will probably be the case. Lee and Jefferson only threw 5 picks last year and we see that likely to increase. Finally, the defense will have fewer than last year's 18 without Claiborne and Mathieu. In every area, this team loses points from last year on turnovers. If they have the same margin as last year somehow, they would rank as our #1 team.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #15          2011 Recruiting Rank: #10
Les Miles brought in another stellar recruiting class. Although the very top names eluded him, there are at least a half-dozen consensus blue chip players in the group. Miles either looks like a genius or an idiot while coaching, sometimes calling brilliant plays and other times mismanaging the clock. He looked brilliant all season until the BCS championship game, where he kept trying everything that didn't work and never once gave a QB other than Jordan Jefferson a chance. Meanwhile Nick Saban had picked out the few things that had worked in game one and did them over and over, nickel and diming the LSU defense while their defense remained dominant. Quite simply, Saban prepared better and outcoached Miles.

2011 Recap
LSU played better than expected from the start, knocking out a strong Oregon team in the opener and continuing to roll over their opponents. First they established that the defense was good; then they started putting up outrageous point totals even when their offense wasn't so fearsome. By the time they met Alabama the first time they'd put up 40+ points five times. They were shut down on offense by the Tide but managed to win the game despite that. They fell behind against Arkansas and Georgia and rallied to win blowouts. They beat Georgia despite passing for just 30 yards, and scored 40 or more in their last four games—the last three of which were arguably their best performances, given the opponents and the final scores (Mississippi 52-3, Arkansas 41-17, and Georgia 42-10).

The Tigers' magic ran out against Alabama in the rematch. They were as inept on offense as the earlier game, but tried nothing new to remedy that. After a 13-0 start, the Tigers were embarrassingly shut out by the Tide 21-0.

2012 Outlook

LSU 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	North Texas	99%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Washington	97%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Idaho	99%	W
9/22	Sat	@	*Auburn	86%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	Towson	100%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*Florida	80%	W
10/13	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	86%	W
10/20	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	78%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	54%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	95%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	99%	W
11/23	Fri	@	*Arkansas	68%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Undefeated: 15%

 

Does losing the Honey Badger put a dent into LSU's national title plans?

Some have claimed Mathieu's loss won't ultimately affect LSU this year, and that he is overrated as a cover man. That could be true, but his game-changing ability (six forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries) show a knack for the ball rarely seen, and that's not considering his punt return skill. The team is clearly worse off without him, and though it's impossible to truly gauge the value of a single player, he was one of their keys to success last year and it's very possible that losing him could be the difference between a national championship and a 1-loss season.

But for the most part we have to consider LSU a team of 85 players, and they are going to have a good season without Mathieu. We still favor them in every game, largely because they get Alabama at home. Other than that game, they also have to face Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Arkansas, all good teams.

Still they have a 15% chance of going undefeated. The most likely outcome is 11-1, but the average outcome leans to 10-2. Game-by-game they would be the SEC West winner and on their way to the BCS championship again, but since we rank them #4—and #2 in the West, we assign them the Sugar Bowl where in our universe they'd play Texas.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #5 Florida State Seminoles

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Florida State Seminoles  (ACC #1; Atlantic #1)

#5	2011 Results	Record: 9-4	Strength:#22  Success:#33  Overall:#23
		AP #23  USA #23	Bowl: Beat Notre Dame 18-14 (Champs Sports)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 11-1	Picks: Lindy's #8; Athlon #9; Steele #1
		AP #7  USA #7	Bowl: Orange (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Phil Steele has the Seminoles #1 in his pre-season preview. We might put them there if we were taking schedule into account, as FSU has the 2nd best chance of any team to go 12-0 in the regular season.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #40 (raw) #40 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #19 (adjusted)

The offense should improve in all areas to become top 25 worthy.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #33 (raw) #44 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #116
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #16 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #108

E.J. Manuel (2,666 yards, 18 touchdowns, 8 int) struggled through 2011 with injuries, due in no small part to the offensive line's inablility to protect him. He was sacked 33 times, and backup Clint Trickett (675 yards, 7 TD, 4 int) was sacked 8 times. The line will be better this year but it's still an issue. With the top four receivers back led by Rashad Greene and Rodney Smith (1,156 yards combined) and two QBs who played extensively last year the passing game should run a lot more smoothly.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #109 (raw) #105 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #86 (adj.)

Devonta Freeman led the 'Noles with just 579 yards last year. He's back, and with a stronger offensive line that's enough to at least dig them out of the national cellar. Jacob Fahrenkrug, Bryan Stork, and Bobby Hart all started the majority of games last year on the O-line and Garrett Faircloth about half time.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #9    Pass Defense  per-game: #8   Per-attempt: #23
Defense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #4 (raw) #8 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #4	'11 picks: #65
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #9 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #1	'12 picks: #34

While the defense as a whole looks about the same this year—still in the national top ten—they should improve in a few areas specifically: pass rush and interceptions. The 'Noles had 40 sacks last year and an amazing 37 of them return, making them our favorite to be #1 this year (adjusted for the offensive lines they face). Defensive line starters Brandon Jenkins (8 sacks) and Bjoerne Werner (7 sacks), and backup Tank Carradine (5.5) are the keys. All four starters return to the D-line making the top ten rush defense potentially even better.

Their interceptions should increase not due to any particular individuals but due to returning most of last year's picks and pass breakups, spread amongs dozens of players. The secondary returns two starters including LaMarcus Joyner but Mike Harris is gone along with Greg Reid who was dismissed over the summer. At linebacker #1 tackler Nigel Bradham is gone while Christian Jones and Vince Williams are back.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Dustin Hopkins, one of the country's best kickers, returns after making 22 of 27 attempts last year, while punter Shawn Powell (47.0 average, 41.3 net) is gone. Freshman Cason Beatty will take over.
• Return Game:  Lamarcus Joyner averaged 30.5 yards per kickoff return without a touchdown return to game the numbers. Greg Reid had a touchdown on a punt return with a 11.2 average, and as he's gone Karlos Williams may be the main fielder.
• Turnovers projection:  FSU should have more picks on defense, and suffer fewer on offense this year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #8          2011 Recruiting Rank: #1
Recruiting comes down from last year's #1 class, but only very slightly. And of the very top recruits—the best of the best in the nation—Jimbo Fisher got at least as many as anyone else, including perhaps the two best defensive linemen available, Mario Edwards from Denton, Texas and Eddie Goldman from Washington, DC.

2011 Recap
Two easy warm-up games (combined score 96-10) didn't prepare the Seminoles for Oklahoma, and they were beaten in a sloppy game. They travelled to Clemson and lost 35-30 in another free-for-all. Those were excusable in retrospect, but they shouldn't have lost to Wake Forest, also 35-30; clearly the disappointment of going 2-2 had worn on them. After that they turned things around with two 41-16 wins over Duke and Maryland, then shut out North Carolina State 34-0, whomped Boston College 38-7, and beat rival Miami 23-19. They lost to Virginia by a point 14-13, then beat Florida 21-7. They only beat three bowl-eligible teams though; Miami opted out of the bowl season at 6-6, leaving 6-6 Florida and 7-5 NC State as their top conquests. They capped a disappointing season on a positive note with an 18-14 comeback win over Notre Dame in the Champs Sports Bowl.

2012 Outlook

Florida State 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Murray State	100%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Savannah State	100%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	97%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	83%	W
9/29	Sat	@	South Florida	72%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*N.C. State	89%	W
10/13	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	96%	W
10/20	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	88%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Duke	98%	W
11/8	Thu	@	*Virginia Tech	78%	W
11/17	Sat	@	*Maryland	96%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	Florida	81%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 11-1  Undefeated: 26%

 

It's hard to believe a BCS-conference school—particularly one of the most successful programs of the last 25 years—would schedule two FCS games, but Florida State opens with Murray State and 1-10 Savannah State. We figure the 'Noles should beat the Racers by 47 points and they are an astounding 90 points better than the Tigers, making it one of the greatest mismatches in recent college football history. Since there isn't negative scoring in football, we estimate that FSU should win that one about 72-0.

Then they have the opportunity to get revenge on the two teams that beat them 35-30 last year. Wake Forest at home won't be much of a challenge, and FSU should beat Clemson comfortably, too. The problem is that after four home games, the Seminoles are on the road for 5 of the next 7. But they'll be favored in every one through to the end, and due to their projected strength and the projected weakness of the ACC—and their two gimmes at the beginning of the year—FSU has over a 1 in 4 chance of going undefeated. Every other top 25 team has a top ten team on its schedule, or would if they reach a conference title game, but the Seminoles avoid that and even including the ACC title game (probably against Georgia Tech) they still have a 1 in 5 shot at 13-0.

Last year the Seminoles were picked to be this good, too, and it didn't happen, largely due to injuries. But that team also had to play Oklahoma so they weren't expected to breeze through the season. This time expectations have to be higher due to the schedule if nothing else. The other edge of that is FSU is not going to the BCS championship if there are two other undefeated teams.

Since we place them #5 and not in the top two, we ignore the scheduling aspect and just assume the 'Noles win the ACC and go to the Orange Bowl. Since the Orange Bowl picks last, they'll be stuck with the Big East winner, who we project as South Florida. FSU and USF play in late September and they might play again in early January.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #6 Texas Longhorns

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Texas Longhorns  (Big Twelve #2)

#6	2011 Results	Record: 8-5	Strength:#19  Success:#25  Overall:#20
		AP #30  USA #28	Bowl: Beat Cal 21-10 (Holiday)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #19; Athlon #11; Steele #7
		AP #15  USA #15	Bowl: Sugar Bowl (Eligibility odds: 99.8%)

After slumming for two seasons with the losing teams and the "others receiving votes" Texas will be back firmly in the top 25, maybe even the top 10.

Offense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #55 (raw) #38 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #24 (adjusted)

A team without a 1,000 yard rusher, no 1,000 yard receiver, and nearly without a 1,000 yard passer is going to have a top 25 scoring offense in 2012.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #88 (raw) #82 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #76
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #61 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #69

If it wasn't clear in 2010 it became very clear early in the 2011 season that Texas wasn't going to win under Garrett Gilbert (247 yards, 1 TD, 2 int), so David Ash and Case McCoy took over. It never became clear which of them helped the team more—or hurt it less—as each had just over 1,000 passing yards. McCoy had a better percentage, 61 to 57; more TDs, 7 to 4; and fewer picks, 4 to 8. But he also had a penchant for fumbling and Ash ran the ball better. A decision of sorts has been made—Ash is the starter. But both will play, and the competition will continue. The team's top four receivers are back including Mike Davis (609 yards) and Jaxson Shipley (607), now a sophomore. The line only loses one full-time starter so protection should improve and with both QBs more experienced the passing game should elevate to "average."

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #19 (raw) #17 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #11 (adj.)

Texas had a lot of people running the ball last year, with Malcolm Brown leading (742 yards), Joe Bergeron at #2 with 463, and Fozzy Whitaker with 386. Whitaker is gone but the top two are back, as are four of the six others who topped 100 for the season. The offensive line returns three full-time starters, Mason Walters, Trey Hopkins, and Dominic Espinosa, along with half-time starter Josh Cochran. The ground game should be better, bordering the top ten as they bring in the nation's top running back recruit for the 2nd straight year.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #4    Pass Defense  per-game: #7   Per-attempt: #7
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #36 (raw) #5 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #27	'11 picks: #14
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #10 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #15	'12 picks: #3

With Jackson Jeffcoat (8 sacks, plus 13 tackles for loss) and Alex Okafor (7 sacks) back on the 4-3 defensive line, the Longhorn pass rush figures to top last year's 29 sacks. They'll probably slip from the top 5 in rush defense due to losses at linebacker however. Emmanual Acho (#1 with 131 tackles, 16 tackles for loss) and Keenan Robinson (106 tackles) are both gone. Pass defense looks even stronger though as Kenny Vaccaro is back along with Carrington Byndom and Quandre Diggs who combined for 30 pass breakups and 6 interceptions. Overall, however, the loss of their top two linebackers knocks the defense back a bit, but they should still be a borderline top ten unit.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Justin Tucker was both punter (39.2 average) and kicker (17 of 21 attempts) last year and he departs. Penn State transfer Anthony Fera (42.0 average, 14 of 17 FG) looks to fill both positions, but he's injured and will be out at least the early part of the season. Another transfer, Alex King from Duke had a 42.1 yard punting average last year, so he'll fill in early at least, while freshmen Nick Jordan and Nick Rose battle for the kicking job.
• Return Game:  Last year Fozzy Whittaker had two touchdown returns on kickoffs in just 10 attempts, but he's gone. Quandre Diggs averaged 20.1 yards per punt return (mostly due to an 81-yard, non-touchdown return). Diggs handled kickoffs too (19.5 ave) and will again along with D.J. Monroe. 
• Turnovers projection:  Texas should have a better turnover ratio this year as the defense gets more interceptions than last year's 12 and the quarterbacks throw fewer than last year's 14.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #1          2011 Recruiting Rank: #8
After a top ten class for 2011, Mack Brown brought in our #1 class for 2012. With over a dozen consensus blue-chip recruits, the class features two of the very top recruits in the nation. Jonathan Gray is probably the nation's #1 running back, making it two years in a row that the Longhorns have the top RB recruit in the country (last year it was Malcolm Brown). Confusingly, this year the Longhorns also got Malcom Brown, one of the top-rated defensive tackles this year.

2011 Recap
Everyone (except us?) was expecting Texas to prove that 2010 was an aberration and that they'd quickly be back in the top 25. By game two it was clear that it wasn't going to be that easy as Texas had to dump Garrett Gilbert. They edged the BYU 17-16, then blasted UCLA 49-20 in revenge for last season. By the time they handed Iowa State its first loss, Texas really was back in the top 25 going into a showdown with Oklahoma. That game embarrassed the Longhorns 55-17 and made QBs Ash and McCoy look stupid. The Longhorns played Oklahoma State a lot closer but they fell to 5-2. They had two more solid outings against Kansas (a 43-0 shutout win) and Texas Tech (52-20), but fell apart in their last four games. The offense was awful, scoring 5 (3, really), 13, 27 (20), and 24 points, and they lost three of the four. The running game that was the team's offensive engine began to fall apart against Missouri when they lost Whittaker, and later injuries to Brown and Bergeron made it worse. Against Cal in the Holiday Bowl things were good again thanks to the defense and they won 21-10.

2012 Outlook

Texas 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Wyoming	98%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	New Mexico	99%	W
9/15	Sat	@	Mississippi	92%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	48%	L
10/6	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	77%	W
10/13	Sat	N	*Oklahoma	32%	L
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	87%	W
10/27	Sat	@	*Kansas	96%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	76%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	89%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	*TCU	83%	W
12/1	Sat	@	*Kansas State	66%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Undefeated: 3%

 

The early schedule has three good "trial" games (Wyoming, New Mexico, and Ole Miss) for the quarterback competition and then a bye week, but come Oklahoma State hopefully there will be a clear starter. The early games should be wins regardless of any quarterback controversy. The Cowboys are beatable but they're at home and who knows how good they'll still be.

Texas should be able to beat West Virgina in Austin, but then they face the Sooners, which should either be their first or second loss of the year.

The next six games should all be wins, with challenges at Texas Tech and in particular at Kansas State. None can be considered easy, as Baylor, Iowa State, and TCU are all tough even if mostly down a few notches this year.

The cumulative projection averages out to just below 9.5 wins, so it's 9-3 even as the most likely outcome is 10-2, which is also our straight up or game-by-game pick. The Longhorns have a 3% chance of going undefeated, but if they are the #2 Big Twelve team they'd be in line for a BCS Bowl, and given the order of picks they'd probably end up in the Sugar Bowl vs. the Alabama/LSU loser (we have LSU).

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #7 Michigan Wolverines

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Michigan Wolverines  (Big Ten #1; Legends #1)

#7	2011 Results	Record: 11-2	Strength:#12  Success:#12  Overall:#11
		AP #12 USA #9	Bowl: Beat Virginia Tech 23-20 OT (Sugar)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #7; Athlon #7; Steele #15
		AP #8  USA #8	Bowl: Rose (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Michigan has their best team since 2006 but to have any chance at a national title they need to get past their first game against defending national champ Alabama.

Offense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #26 (raw) #17 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #11 (adjusted)

A powerful ground game continues to drive the Michigan offense.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #95 (raw) #88 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #30
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #89 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #30

Last year Denard Robinson was supposed to run the ball less often and pass more. He did the former, with 35 fewer carries, but he also had 33 fewer passing attempts, so he declined to 2,173 passing yards with 20 touchdowns (up by 2) and 15 interceptions (up by 4). His completion percentage fell from 63% to 55%. Leading receiver Junior Hemingway (699 yards) is gone and while Jeremy Gallon (453) and Roy Roundtree (355; 935 in '10) are back the latter isn't 100% coming into the season opener. Robinson should be more efficient—higher completion %, fewer interceptions—but probably not see big gains in production.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #13 (raw) #12 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #5 (adj.)

Michigan has all the components for a great running game and then some. A great running back (Fitzgerald Toussaint, 1,041 yards and 9 TDs last year) with a solid backup (Vincent Smith, 298, 6.0 average), and a quarterback who can and will run all over the field, meaning that every play is potentially a running play. Robinson had 1,176 yards and 16 touchdowns and that was down over 500 yards from 2010. Also, a strong offensive line is necessary, and Michigan has one with three starters back: Patrick Omameh, Taylor Lewan, and Michael Schofield. What could stop the UM running game from breaking into the top ten is a big improvement in Robinson's throwing, which we don't foresee going from junior to senior year but it's possible.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #24    Pass Defense  per-game: #23   Per-attempt: #37
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #6 (raw) #9 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #40	'11 picks: #44
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #7 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #27	'12 picks: #48

The Michigan defensive line will need help this year as three of four starters are gone including Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen (5.5 sacks). That help should come from the linebackers as all three starters are back including #1 tackler Kenny Demens. They also add back a healthy Cam Gordon who started all of 2010. The secondary returns three starters including Jordan Kovacs and Thomas Gordon. The defense should be tough again, similar to last year's defense and not 2010's.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Will Hagerup (36.0 average last year) will try to hold off Matt Wile (41.6) for the punting job, while Brendan Gibbons (13 of 17 last season) returns as placekicker.
• Return Game:  Jeremy Gallon had a 10.1 average on punts last year and Drew Dileo will step up to offset the loss of Martavious Odoms (21.2 on kickoffs).
• Turnovers projection:  Michigan had the nation's best fumble margin last year (20 gained, 6 lost) and that's not good news for this year, as that part of their success isn't likely to repeat. Even if they are +7—still fantastic and rare—that's a swing of about 28 points, or over 2 per game. Robinson should offset some of that by reducing his interceptions, hopefully at least to his 2010 level.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #5          2011 Recruiting Rank: #43
A coach's first year—especially if his predecessor was fired—normally begins by bringing in a sub-par recruiting class. The second year is almost always far better. Brady Hoke shows this to good effect with one of the top recruiting classes in the country for his 2nd season. Offensive tackle Kyle Kalis of Lakewood, Ohio is the premier recruit. The class is actually only the 2nd best in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State.

2011 Recap
Michigan's schedule in 2011 was solid start to finish; the Wolverines played just two teams that didn't qualify for a bowl appearance, and one of those (Eastern Michigan) finished 6-6. So unlike previous years, the 2nd half of the season wasn't a disaster as the Wolverines were prepared for the Big Ten season. That, and the defense played far, far better. In fact, only the last game against Ohio State was a defensive breakdown, as they held everyone else other than Notre Dame under 30 points. It was arguably the offense that held the team back. They scored just 34, 31, and 28 against weak defensive teams Western Michigan (though that game was stopped before the 4th quarter), Eastern Michigan, and San Diego State. Those games were easy wins and the extra offense wasn't needed, but they could have used the points in losses to Michigan State and Iowa where they scored just 14 and 16. But the offense was exemplary against Minnesota (58 points), and strong in their last three wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State. Against Virginia Tech the offense just didn't function like it did most of the season, and the Wolverines needed defense and some luck to beat the Hokies in overtime, 23-20, in the Sugar Bowl.

2012 Outlook

Michigan 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	N	Alabama	28%	L
9/8	Sat	vs.	Air Force	99%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	100%	W
9/22	Sat	@	Notre Dame	55%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*Purdue	87%	W
10/13	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	91%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	82%	W
10/27	Sat	@	*Nebraska	62%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Minnesota	94%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	98%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	94%	W
11/24	Sat	@	*Ohio State	63%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Undefeated: 3%

 

Everything rides on the first game—at least in terms of the national championship. If the Wolverines are thinking about the BCS crown, then they have to win the first game. Lose it and the goal switches to the Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl appearance.

And that's what we expect to happen. Whether or not Fitzgerald Touissant and Frank Clark are suspended for the game makes little difference—Alabama is still better than Michigan and should win the game fairly handily. We're docking "half" of Touissant for the game, so if he plays the odds move a bit toward Michigan, if not, a bit even further away.

Win or lose, the Wolverines have to stay focused in the easy games that follow and avoid pitfalls at Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State that could derail their season. Those are three very tough places to play and winning all three would be a hell of an accomplishment. By comparison the rest of the season—even Michigan State at home—looks easy.

We pick the Wolverines in every game except the first one. The cumulative odds show 10-2 as the most likely outcome, perhaps losing two of the four tough games. There is only a 3% chance Michigan can go undefeated, but beating Alabama would make it possible.

If they do beat the Tide it would set off a frenzy among fans who have been waiting for the Wolverines to again be in the national title picture. Every game would be bigger than the last; it would possibly break the SEC's stranglehold on the BCS championship; in short, it would be good for college football.

But it doesn't appear to be in the cards. More likely, Michigan wins the Legends division and beats Wisconsin to go to the Rose Bowl, where they'd probably play Oregon. That would be good for college football, too. Just not as exciting as the season would be with a win in game one.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #8 Oregon Ducks

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Oregon Ducks  (Pac-12 #2; North #1)

#8	2011 Results	Record: 12-2	Strength:#4  Success:#8  Overall:#4
		AP #4  USA #4	Bowl: Beat Wisconsin 45-38 (Rose Bowl)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #5; Athlon #4; Steele #6
		AP NR USA NR	Bowl: Rose Bowl (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Oregon keeps rolling along despite big losses on offense, the sign of a top program.

Offense 4 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #3 (raw) #2 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #5 (adjusted)

Last year's offense was the 2nd best in the nation, and this year's should still be in the top ten despite losing Darron Thomas and LaMichael James.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #69 (raw) #49 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #8
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #79 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #9

Darron Thomas wasn't the most prolific passer—he wasn't supposed to be in this offense—but he had 2,761 passing yards and 33 touchdowns with just 7 interceptions—about as good as can be expected. He left early and redshirt freshman Marcus Mariota has been named the starter, and he's another QB who can run the ball which Oregon's offense has thrived on since Dennis Dixon. Two of the four main receivers are back including #1 DeAnthony Thomas (605 yards, 9 TDs) while Lavasier Tuinei (599, 10 TDs) is gone. Further, four of five who had between 100 and 200 yards are back, too. It's hard to imagine Mariota matching Thomas' efficiency, but then again who expected Thomas to replace Jeremiah Masoli so perfectly? We're guessing the passing numbers drop this time.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #5 (raw) #4 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #3 (adj.)

Oregon's offense is geared toward the run, and they've had a series of great backs, the latest of whom is LaMichael James who had 1,805 yards and 18 touchdowns last year. Though he's gone, two other greats are waiting in the wings and have already shown they are capable: Kenjon Barner (939 yards, 11 touchdowns last year) and all-purpose runner De'Anthony Thomas (595 yards, 7 TDs). QB Thomas had 206 net and from the way it sounds, Mariota should have at least that. The offensive line returns three full-time starters, Carson York, Nick Cody, and Hroniss Grasu and should be just as good. Barner should have over 1,500 yards and Thomas might not be too far behind as he averaged 10.8 yards per carry this year!

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #50    Pass Defense  per-game: #29   Per-attempt: #5
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #54 (raw) #25 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #3	'11 picks: #23
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #22 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #7	'12 picks: #12

The rush defense was Oregon's relative weakness, but with three of four starters back on the defensive line (when in 4-3 mode) it should be much less of one. Their amazing pass rush (45 sacks last year) will still be strong but maybe not top 5; although hybrid end/LB Dion Jordan (7.5 sacks) is back they lose Terrell Turner, and at linebacker Josh Kaddu (6.5 sacks) is gone, too. Michael Clay (102 tackles) does return at linebacker, but Dewitt Stuckey is gone so on the whole the LB unit is weaker. The secondary loses two starters including Eddie Pleasant (8 pass breakups) but Terrance Mitchell (10 pass breakups) is back along with #1 tackler John Boyett (108 tackles). Overall the defense is perhaps a touch better.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Alejandro Maldonado (7 of 12 FG last year) will try to hold onto the placekicking job as Rob Beard (10 of 13 in 2010) comes back from injury. The missed field goal against USC still stings Oregon fans. Punter Jackson Rice (45.9 average) is back too.
• Return Game:  After a slow start due to a critical fumble against LSU DeAnthony Thomas had a great year returning kicks, with two touchdowns on kickoffs (27.3 average). LaMichael James was primary punt returner and he had a touchdown, too (10.7 average). Barner will take over on punts and it will again be a feared unit.
• Turnovers projection:  Perhaps Darron Thomas' most impressive stat was his 7 interceptions, and freshman Mariota might have double that.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #11          2011 Recruiting Rank: #13
Chip Kelly came through with another great recruiting class, ranking #3 in the Pac-12 and full of consensus blue chips. It was one such player from 2010, Lache Seastrunk, whose recruitment has caused the NCAA to look closer at aspects of the Oregon program, and there's a chance the Ducks won't be allowed to go to a bowl game or Pac-12 title game if sanctions are announced. Seastrunk ended up at Baylor without playing a down for the Ducks.

2011 Recap
Oregon's 2010 season ended in disappointment with a loss to Auburn. Their 2011 season began with a disappointing loss to LSU. Both games found Oregon unable to execute their ground game, getting held to 75 yards against Auburn and 95 against LSU. The Ducks rebounded with monstrous output and at least 40 points against their next six opponents. They had just 34 against Washington but 53 on Stanford, handing the Cardinal their only loss. They lost at home to USC however, missing a last-second field goal that would have tied it. Still, the Ducks won the North division of the Pac-12 and beat UCLA for the Rose Bowl berth, and that's where they would have gone even if they'd defeated the Trojans. The Rose Bowl against Wisconsin was a wild affair that ended in a 45-38 Oregon win.

2012 Outlook

Oregon 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	97%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	97%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	100%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	96%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Washington State	90%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Washington	91%	W
10/18	Thu	@	*Arizona State	90%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	99%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*USC	22%	L
11/10	Sat	@	*California	78%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	66%	W
11/24	Sat	@	*Oregon State	83%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  undefeated: 6%

 

According to our numbers, there aren't a whole lot of different possible results for the Ducks' 2012 season. The most common outcome, 10-2 is a whopping 37% chance, with 11-1 a 31% chance. That means those two outcomes are more than 2/3 likely. Throw in 9-3 (20%), 8-4 (6%), and 12-0 (6%) and that's about it. Okay, 7-5 is a 1% chance (numbers add up to 101% due to rounding).

Looking at their schedule it's easy to see why the charts are tilted to the right. The Ducks are a 90%+ favorite in their first 8 games, with Washington State and Arizona State on the road the biggest hurdles.

Then they play USC in Pasadena, their only designated loss, and a pretty likely one, too. Then it's back to winning but the games are all tougher than what preceded the USC game.

There are two traps here: One, that the Ducks fall victim to overconfidence in the first eight games. Particularly in looking ahead to USC, which might happen by week 5. Second, if they lose to USC the disappointment could be palpable and affect the later games, all of which will be at least somewhat challenging. The simple solution: beat USC so that there is no letdown.

The other trap is if sanctions are announced concerning the program, and suddenly they have no post-season to play for. But at the present time there's no indication of that. We're assuming that if the Ducks finish #2 in the Pac-12, they'll go to the Rose Bowl (as USC is likely bound for the BCS title game) and face a Big Ten team—we're thinking Michigan.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #9 Wisconsin Badgers

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Wisconsin Badgers  (Big Ten #2; Leaders #1)

#9	2011 Results	Record: 11-3	Strength:#6  Success:#17  Overall:#7
		AP #10  USA #11	Bowl: Lost to Oregon 45-38 (Rose)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #17; Athlon #17; Steele #13
		AP #12  USA #12	Bowl: Fiesta Bowl (Eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Wisconsin reloads with another grad transfer quarterback and hopes for a third shot at winning the Rose Bowl...or a shot at the national title.

Offense 5 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #6 (raw) #5 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #1 (adjusted)

The Wisconsin offense won't really be better than last year, but with the obvious decline of 2011's top offenses (Oklahoma State losing Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, Oregon losing LaMichael James and Darron Thomas, Baylor losing Robert Griffin III, and Houston losing Case Keenum & receivers) the Badgers float up toward #1 with the return of Montee Ball.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #61 (raw) #45 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #45
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #42 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #58

Russell Wilson saved the day last season by arriving from N.C. State as a grad transfer when the quarterback situation looked dire. He passed for 3,175 yards, completing 73%, and threw 33 touchdown passses with just 4 interceptions. His one-and-done act left the same problem for the Badgers this year, but voilá, another ACC school delivers as Danny O'Brien arrives from Maryland. O'Brien threw for 1,648 yards, 7 touchdowns and 10 picks last year, but had a better 2010 (2,438, 22 TDs, 8 int). Even if he's still a downgrade from last year's model, it's better than their situation without him, especially since Jon Budmayr is out again with injury. Jared Abbrederis and Nick Toon split 1,859 receiving yards and 18 TDs almost equally and the former is back, the latter, not, but four others with 150+ are back. O'Brien may prove to be an adequate replacement for Wilson—for the passing game at least.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #11 (raw) #10 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #7 (adj.)

The entire offense got a huge boost by the unforeseen return of Montee Ball. Ball had 1,923 yards with a monstrous 33 touchdown last year, and with James White (713 yards) also back the ground game will be just as strong. They do lose Russell Wilson's contribution (338 net yards) but the Ball-White 1-2 punch will be devastating in Ball's senior year—assuming no bad aftereffects of the attack he suffered in Madison over the summer. The offensive line will be a bit weaker as three starters are gone including two draft choices, but center Travis Frederick is back with senior Ricky Wagner and Wisconsin always has huge, strong offensive lines.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #44    Pass Defense  per-game: #15   Per-attempt: #46
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #13 (raw) #21 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #91	'11 picks: #35
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #16 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #78	'12 picks: #46

The heart of the Wisconsin defense is obviously at linebacker, where Mike Taylor (150 tackles) and Chris Borland (143 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss) are both back. Two of four starters are back on the defensive line, and two of four are back in the secondary, where Shelton Johnson (4 interceptions) returns but Aaron Henry (4 int) and Antonio Fenelus (4 int) are gone. With their key tacklers back, Wisconsin's defense looks stronger.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kyle French (3 of 5 field goals last year) takes over full-time for the departing Phillip Welch (5 of 6) at placekicker, while Drew Meyer will succeed Brad Nortman (42.2 average) at punter.
• Return Game:  Jared Abbrederis will again be the main kicker returner; last year he had a touchdown return on a punt (15.8 average) and a 24.6 average on kickoffs.
• Turnovers projection:  It's a sad story for the Badgers concerning turnovers I'm afraid. Wisconsin's positive fumble margin last year will probably diminish at least somewhat, and the defense loses enough from the secondary that it's doubtful they will match last year's 16 interceptions. Worse, they are going from a starting QB who threw 4 interceptions to one who had 10 in 2/3 of a season last year. All in all, compared to last year turnovers aren't going to be the Badgers' friend.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #87          2011 Recruiting Rank: #45
Bret Bielema, like his predecessor Barry Alvarez, is a winner. Four out of his six years at Wisconsin have resulted in double-digit win totals. But again like Alvarez, there has never been a year where Wisconsin is really in the national title discussion. In 2006 they had only one loss, but it was to Michigan who was in the national title hunt. In 2009 they lost two games at mid-season before their name could even be bandied about. In 2010 they lost their fifth game of the season. And last year, just when it looked like they were finally putting their name on the short list for consideration, they lost to Michigan State on a hail mary and followed that with loss #2, ending the discussion. This year's recruiting class is small enough (12 members) that it actually ranks last in the Big Ten, though the quality isn't bad.

2011 Recap
Wisconsin's schedule was criticized for being slight when they were 4-0, and there was some truth to that—it included two losing teams and an FCS team. But they also beat 11-3 Northern Illinois 49-7, and after they'd demolished Nebraska 48-17 the Badgers had proven themselves. But the real problem with their schedule was that they hadn't played on the road yet, and when they did Michigan State was ready for them. The Spartans fought back unlike their previous foes and Kirk Cousins' prayer was answered for a deflection touchdown. Perhaps the victim of letdown, the Badgers also lost to Ohio State on a late touchdown toss. Wisconsin bounced back to clean the rest of their Big Ten slate, including a dominant win over Penn State. They got their rematch with Michigan State and this time luck was on their side. After 2010's narrow loss to TCU, they get another shot at a Rose Bowl win and came up just short again, running out of time on the tying drive.

2012 Outlook

Wisconsin 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Northern Iowa	97%	W
9/8	Sat	@	Oregon State	80%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Utah State	96%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	UTEP	97%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Nebraska	57%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	89%	W
10/13	Sat	@	*Purdue	84%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	97%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	79%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Indiana	97%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	74%	W
11/24	Sat	@	*Penn State	88%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  undefeated: 15%

 

We favor Wisconsin to win every game this year, with the toughest game being at Nebraska. The odds we assign average out to a 10-2 record, but 11-1 is the most likely single occurrence. And the Badgers have a solid 15% chance of going undefeated.

The schedule isn't exactly killer. The non-conference slate starts with FCS Northern Iowa, who is just too small for a team as giant as Wisconsin. Oregon State is their toughest test out of conference, but the Beavers are not the Ducks. Utah State and UTEP are about as good as Northern Iowa.

After Nebraska (whom they beat 48-17 last year), the toughest game is Ohio State, whom they play at home. They also get Michigan State at home. They avoid playing Michigan, too—that is, until the Big Ten title game..

By our rankings Wisconsin is the #2 Big Ten team and therefore they lose to Michigan in the Big Ten title game. They would then go to the Fiesta Bowl where they'd play Big Twelve champ Oklahoma.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #10 Oklahoma State Cowboys

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Oklahoma State Cowboys  (Big Twelve #3)

#10	2011 Results	Record: 12-1	Strength:#2  Success:#3  Overall:#3
		AP #3  USA #3	Bowl: Beat Stanford 41-38 OT (Fiesta)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #16; Athlon #19; Steele #12
		AP #19  USA #19	Bowl: Cotton (Eligibility odds: 99%)

The last time Oklahoma State had to replace their all-time leading passer and superstar wide receiver they got even better.

Offense 4 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #2 (raw) #1 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #9 (adjusted)

With Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon gone, Joseph Randle might be the star of the offense.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #2 (raw) #3 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #5
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #31 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #6

Who is the bigger loss to the passing game, Brandon Weeden (72% completions, 4,727 yards, 37 touchdowns, 13 int)? Or Justin Blackmon (122 receptions, 1,522 yards, 18 touchdowns)? We'll never know since they're both gone, along with #2 receiver Josh Cooper (715 yards). But at least the offense has receiver Tracy Moore (672 yards) and three others who had over 250 yards back. At quarterback they'll be starting a true freshman, Wes Lunt, who must be good because he beat out backup Clint Chelf who has experience running the system and completed 69% with 5 TDs and 1 int the last two years. The offensive line was incredible last year allowing just 12 sacks vs. nearly 600 attempts. Pretty much everyone figures the passing game is going to be de-emphasized slightly, so the decline is a bit deeper than what we'd normally see within Gundy's system which always seems to put up big yardage.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #52 (raw) #44 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #25 (adj.)

Lost due to the attention surrounding the passing game, Joseph Randle quietly rushed for 1,216 and 24 touchdowns in 2011. Jeremy Smith added 646 (9 TDs) and though they lose Herschel Sims (242 yards; transferred after legal problems) it could be time for the running backs to shine. The offensive line loses three starters plus part-time starter Mike Mustafa who left in the summer; Lane Taylor is back with half-time starter Parker Graham and 2010 starter Jonathan Rush (knee injury last year). Assuming there's a bit more of a running slant to the offense at least early on, Randle and Smith could both put up big numbers.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #68    Pass Defense  per-game: #68   Per-attempt: #10
Defense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #63 (raw) #18 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #20	'11 picks: #1
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #13 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #24	'12 picks: #1

Oklahoma State had 24 interceptions last year and 2/3 of them are back, so look for the team to be #1 again (adjusted for opponent's rate of picks) even if they won't reach last year's total. The key players are cornerbacks Broderick Brown (15 pass breakups, 5 interceptions) and Justin Gilbert (10, 5). They're back in the secondary along with #1 tackler Daytawion Lowe while Markelle Martin (11 pass breakups) departs.

With Jamie Blatnick (8 sacks) gone the pass rush will be a bit weaker but two starters are back on the defensive line and all three at linebacker so the rush defense should improve. Last year's defense ranked as "average" in raw points yielded, but the Cowboys played four out of the top 11 teams in raw scoring offense and when corrected for that they were a top 25 defense. Their adjusted ranking should climb a bit further.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker/punter Quinn Sharp (22 of 25 field goals last year, and 46.3 average) is one of the best special teams players in the nation, and he's back.
• Return Game:  Justin Gilbert took two kickoff returns back for touchdowns last year; he's back and Josh Stewart will succeed Josh Cooper (3.9 average) as main punt returner.
• Turnovers projection:  Oklahoma State's turnover margin last year was so remarkable that people have been using it, and it alone, as a reason that their fall will be bigger than expected. They have a point: the Cowboys' fumble margin alone was an amazing +10, so even if they manage a strong +5 this year it's a downgrade. In terms of interceptions thrown, we can only imagine a true freshman will throw several more than Weeden. And the defense will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's 24, though most of those players are back. All this adds up to maybe 1 turnover a game less than last year, which is around 4 points. Per game.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #31          2011 Recruiting Rank: #18
Mike Gundy is building a powerhouse program in Stillwater and has taken the first step by proving that his good results weren't the fluke result of a few good players. This year's recruiting class ranks in the top half of the conference once again. Not close to Texas or Oklahoma, though; that's the next step.

2011 Recap
It took a while for Oklahoma State to prove it was really among the elite, i.e. top five in college football. Beating Louisiana-Lafayette wasn't a big deal as nothing was expected of the Cajuns, and they even scored 34 points which at the time demonstrated that the Cowboys couldn't play defense. ULL finished 8-4 and won a bowl game, however. The Arizona and Tulsa blowouts were expected, and while the win over A&M was good, the Aggies blew a big lead again. Scoring 70 on Kansas was typical, and beating Texas by 12 just after Oklahoma had done the job by 38 didn't set the world on fire. Missouri had 3 losses already when the Cowboys beat them, and running up 59 on Baylor's poor defense was no big deal. Kansas State? Again, they beat a team by 7 that Oklahoma had destroyed earlier.

By the time of the 66-6 Texas Tech blowout, however, the merit of their accomplishments was becoming clear. Seven of those victims would be in bowl games, and Tech had beaten Oklahoma while other undefeated teams had fallen. So Oklahoma State went into Ames as a likely national title participant. They left a 37-31 double overtime loser. Was it because of the bad news they heard of coaching colleagues' deaths in a plane crash? We'll never know. But the national title dream was over. They still had unfinished business, i.e. winning the Big Twelve title. They beat Oklahoma worse than they've beaten the Sooners in over 60 years, and almost convinced enough voters to put them #2 to slip into the title game...but not quite. Instead they went to the Fiesta Bowl and beat Stanford; with a game that close, they at least proved they had the better kicker. The Cowboys finished the year 12-1.

2012 Outlook

Oklahoma State 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Savannah State	100%	W
9/8	Sat	@	Arizona	87%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	97%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Texas	52%	W
10/13	Sat	@	*Kansas	95%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	86%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*TCU	78%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Kansas State	60%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	72%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	83%	W
11/24	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	20%	L
12/1	Sat	@	*Baylor	70%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

Oklahoma State plays only two teams ranked ahead of them, Texas and Oklahoma, and they get the former at home which could make them the winner of that one.

If they are, and they take care of business everywhere else (easier said than done), then in late November they'll have a huge showdown at Oklahoma with a Sooner team that will be bent on revenge. That will be a very tough game, and looks like a certain loss, capping the Cowboys' realistic expectations this year at 11-1. Which isn't bad at all for a team that loses such key players.

More likely though they'll finish at 9-3, give or take a win. There are enough games that should be easy to make them a 99% lock for a bowl game, but it's hard to tell how the offense will do. If Wes Lunt plays like a freshman it could be a long year. If the transition goes as well as Zac Robinson/Dez Bryant to Weeden/Blackmon, then maybe they have a shot at an undefeated year.

If the Cowboys do finsh #3 in the conference they'll go to the Cotton Bowl (Assuming Oklahoma and Texas in BCS bowls) and play an SEC team such as Arkansas.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #11 Stanford Cardinal

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Stanford Cardinal  (Pac-12 #3; North #2)

#11	2011 Results	Record: 11-2	Strength:#5  Success:#13  Overall:#6
		AP #7  USA #7	Bowl: Lost to OK St. 41-38 OT (Fiesta)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #21; Athlon #21; Steele #14
		AP #21  USA #18	Bowl: Alamo (Eligibility odds: 99.7%)

Stanford carries on without Andrew Luck, like they carried on without Toby Gerhart a few years earlier.

Offense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #7 (raw) #6 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #15 (adjusted)

The obvious loss on offense is Andrew Luck, and without him the pass game will suffer but Stanford was every bit as much a running team last year.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #22 (raw) #18 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #9
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #54 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #12

Andrew Luck didn't win the Heisman or the national championship in his senior year but he had another good season that was apparently worthy of the #1 pick in the NFL draft. Luck passed for 3,517 yards and threw 37 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, completing 71% of his attempts. The drop-off to new starter Josh Nunes (7 passing yards in 2010, none in 2011) is going to be huge. Worse, last year's top three receivers are gone, too; Griff Whalen led with 749 and tight end Coby Fleener had 667 and 10 TDs. Ty Montgomery (350 yards) is back with three others who had over 250 yards, so there will be options, and the offensive line has provided great protection (11 sacks last year). But the passing game will likely go from great to strictly average this year.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #18 (raw) #18 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #20 (adj.)

Stanford was a rushing powerhouse behind Stepfan Taylor's 1,330 yards and 10 touchdowns and Tyler Gaffney's 449. Taylor is back but Gaffney announced he is quitting to play baseball. Two others had around 250 yards each and one is back, while QB Luck only added 150 last year. The offensive line returns senior Sam Schwatzendruber and sophomores David Yankey and Cameron Fleming. Without Gaffney the ground game might not make gains this year but should still be one of the best with Taylor topping 1,500 this season.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #10    Pass Defense  per-game: #11   Per-attempt: #36
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #32 (raw) #7 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #5	'11 picks: #117
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #4 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #5	'12 picks: #109

Stanford gave up a lot of points last year, but they played high-scoring teams in the Pac-12 and met the #2 and #3 raw scoring offenses in Oklahoma State and Oregon. Corrected for their schedule they had the #7 defense in the country, and this year's model will be better.

The team was #5 in our pass rush ratings and had 39 sacks, with linebackers Chase Thomas (8.5 sacks, 9 tackles for loss) and Trent Murphy (6.5 sacks) leading the way. They're back along with two other starters, Jarek Lancaster (#1 tackler) and A.J. Tarpley, and 2010 starter Shayne Skov (7.5 sacks in '10, 1.5 last year) back full-time (minus 1-game suspension) as well. With all those guys plus two starters on the 3-4 defensive line, the pass rush should be just as effective if not moreso and the rushing defense still top ten. The secondary will be weaker, however, as only one starter returns, with Michael Thomas (had 3 of the team's 7 interceptions) among those gone.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Jordan Williamson is back after making 13 of 19 field goals last year while Eric Whitaker made 4 of 5 but left the team. David Green departs after averaging 41.7 per punt; Daniel Zychlinski (41.8 average in 2010) will take over.
• Return Game:  Ty Montgomery (25.2 average, 1 touchdown) and Drew Terrell (12.0 average) will again field kickoffs and punts for the Cardinal.
• Turnovers projection:  Despite losing most of the secondary Stanford's D should have more than last year's 7 interceptions. But that gain will probably be dwarfed by the additional picks thrown by the less experience QB stable, and the effect of Stanford's fumble margin not matching last year's +8.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #7          2011 Recruiting Rank: #25
Stanford cashed in on back-to-back great seasons with an incredible recruiting class. Any doubts that David Shaw could command the cachet that Jim Harbaugh did have to be put to rest. This is the top class in the Pac-12, featuring three of the very top offensive line recruits in the country, insuring that Stanford O-line continues to be state of the art (they currently start 3 sophomores—imagine the line in 2014!). They also got a running back recruit by the name of Barry Sanders, Jr.

2011 Recap
Looking back at Stanford's early schedule in 2011, we see a team that didn't play a winning opponent for the first half of its season. Is that why things got so hard in the 2nd half? Though they beat Washington 65-21 in one of their best performances, the very next game almost derailed their season as they needed triple overtime to beat USC 56-48. Then in game 10, Oregon socked it to them and they stumbled to the end of the season with a too-close game against Cal (31-28) and a not-quite-dominant performance against Notre Dame, both at home. They fought Oklahoma State toe-to-toe in the Fiesta Bowl but came up just short in overtime, 41-38.

2012 Outlook

Stanford 2012 schedule & forecast
8/31	Fri	vs.	San Jose State	98%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Duke	96%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	*USC	29%	L
9/27	Thu	@	*Washington	76%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	93%	W
10/13	Sat	@	Notre Dame	46%	L
10/20	Sat	@	*California	72%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	94%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Colorado	96%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	88%	W
11/17	Sat	@	*Oregon	34%	L
11/24	Sat	@	*UCLA	78%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3   undefeated: 1%

 

Stanford's schedule is once again hot and cold, with very easy games interrupted by some of the toughest opponents in the nation.

San Jose State and Duke precede USC in September. Arizona is right before Notre Dame on the road. And following Washington State, Colorado, and Oregon State they face Oregon. With those three tough teams on the schedule it's not hard to see why we pick them to be 9-3. And with the preceding six teams, it's not hard to see why it's 99.7% likely for Stanford to reach bowl eligibility. Yet they have just a 1% chance of going undefeated due to the tough teams.

The Notre Dame game is the one the Cardinal have the best chance in, and USC is at home. Oregon has had their number the last two years, beating them 52-31 and 53-20, so that has to be the one circled on the Cardinal schedule. But the Trojans and the Irish have Stanford circled for beating them three years running each.

A third-place finish in the Pac-12 would mean a trip to the Alamo Bowl (as we're pretty sure the top two go to BCS bowls) where they'd face a Big Twelve opponent, perhaps West Virginia.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #12 Georgia Bulldogs

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Georgia Bulldogs  (SEC #3; East #1)

#12	2011 Results	Record: 10-4	Strength:#20  Success:#24  Overall:#21
		AP #19  USA #20	Bowl: Lost to Mich. St. 33-30 3OT (Outback)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #6; Athlon #8; Steele #9
		AP #6  USA #6	Bowl: Capital One (Eligibility odds: 99.7%)

Less than a year ago Mark Richt was on the "hottest seat" in football at 0-2. Now he's got a team gunning for a national title.

Offense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #33 (raw) #21 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #26 (adjusted)

Running back problems put a wrench in the works, but Georgia will still put up the points.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #48 (raw) #30 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #96
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #17 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #102

Aaron Murray had no sophomore slump, again passing for over 3,000 yards (3,149 this time), with 35 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Top receiver Tavarres King (705) is back while Malcolm Mitchell (665) will play both WR and corner (defense primarily until suspended players return to the secondary).  #3 Orson Charles (574) is gone but three others had over 200 yards and are back and Murray should top his numbers again. The biggest problem last year was protection, with 33 sacks allowed; the O-line loses three key starters so it will remain an issue in 2012.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #50 (raw) #37 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #68 (adj.)

Coming into the spring things looked great for the running back stable, as last year's top 6 ground gainers were back. But #1 Isaiah Crowell (850 yards) was dismissed after an arrest, and #2 Carlton Thomas (361) left before spring practice. That leaves Brandon Harton and Richard Samuel (247, 240) the top returnees but it looks like Ken Malcome (174) will start the first game. The offensive line loses three full-time starters to the NFL while Chris Burnette and half-time starters Kenarious Gates and Dallas Lee return. With the offensive line surely weaker and the top two RB gone, the ground game looks diminished.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #5    Pass Defense  per-game: #38   Per-attempt: #6
Defense 9 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #23 (raw) #23 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #15	'11 picks: #22
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #11 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #6	'12 picks: #7

This year's Bulldog defense will be great, especially after they get through the first 2 to 4 games where up to four key players will be suspended. Returning starters Bacarri Rambo (safety; 8 interceptions) and Alec Ogletree (LB) may be out up to four games, while another, Sanders Commings (corner; 12 pass breakups) is suspended the first two along with projected starter Chase Vasser (LB). That will leave the Bulldogs weak in the back seven against Missouri and maybe Vanderbilt, and we see it as the possibly the difference in the outcome of the Missouri game. Another starting corner, Brandon Smith, is not suspended for any games despite earlier reports.

When everyone is back the defense will be one of the best in the nation. In addition to the aforementioned returning starters, three of four are back on the defensive line including Cornelius Washington (5 sacks) making the top-five rushing defense even stronger. Jarvis Jones (13.5 sacks!) and Michael Gilliard are back at linebacker with Ogletree, making it possibly the strongest trio in the nation. The secondary loses Brandon Boykin (11 tackles for loss, 9 pass breakups) but Commings, Rambo, and #1 tackler Shawn Williams (4 int) are all back. Though the first 2-4 games could affect the resultant numbers, the D might be top ten in sacks and interceptions as well as scoring defense.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The Bulldogs need to replace both kicker Blair Walsh, who made just 21 of 35 attempts last year, and punter Drew Butler who averaged 44.2 yards. Freshmen Marshall Morgan and Collin Barber will replace them.
• Return Game:  Brandon Boykin was last year's return specialist, averaging 22.4 on kickoffs and 12.9 on punts with one touchdown return. Branden Smith will be a bit of a downgrade at 18.7 on kickoffs and 7.8 on punts last year.
• Turnovers projection:  Murray should have fewer than last year's 14 picks (he had 8 as a freshman) and the defense should get more, too.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #20          2011 Recruiting Rank: #7
Coach Mark Richt got out of the hotseat in style last year with an SEC East crown. After last year's incredible recruiting class, this year's is naturally down a bit as fewer players are brought in, but it's still quite good and includes a top national recruit at linebacker (Josh Harvey-Clemons), offensive line (Josh Theus), and perhaps most importantly for this year, running back (Keith Marshall).

2011 Recap
Georgia dropped its first two games, and Mark Richt's head was about to be cut off and delivered on a platter to his detractors. But the Bulldogs went on a 10-game winning streak that forestalled that event indefinitely. What was the difference—how did they elevate their game? Really, they didn't. The losses were to Boise State and South Carolina, two teams that were in the top ten at the time and finished there. Georgia played good football in both games. Against South Carolina the defense was awful but the offense was great. Against Boise, both were reasonable. For the rest of the year the offense was average, the defense above average, and the team got by when they needed. They were assisted by a schedule that avoided Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas from the West, instead beating Auburn and the Mississippi teams. They didn't dominate their own division, edging Vanderbilt and Florida to win the East. They beat Georgia Tech in a non-conference rivalry game before facing LSU, during which missed opportunities and big plays from the Tigers doomed them. They also played well against Michigan State except in the field goal department and that's what doomed them in triple overtime.

2012 Outlook

Georgia 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	98%	W
9/8	Sat	@	*Missouri	40%	L
9/15	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	99%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	68%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	78%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*South Carolina	50%	W
10/20	Sat	@	*Kentucky	93%	W
10/27	Sat	N	*Florida	64%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	94%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Auburn	66%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	Georgia Southern	96%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	Georgia Tech	81%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Undefeated: 3%

 

This year Georgia should be very close to being undefeated. Tight road games at Missouri and South Carolina could determine that.

Both games are tossups—but the Missouri game will be affected by suspensions that aren't fully spelled out yet. We know two players—Commings and Vasser—are gone for the first two games. That's enough to perhaps turn a narrow win at Missouri to a nail-biter loss. Rambo and Ogletree might miss four games, or possibly none. We count them out for the first two, which makes Missouri a slight but clear favorite.

By the South Carolina game Georgia will have everyone back, and be either 5-0 or 4-1. This one could go either way, but after that they should win every game. That makes a 12-0 year a possibility as they avoid playing Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas once again.

There are other pitfalls that those two teams, of course. Vanderbilt will be tough and if Rambo and Ogletree are out four games it would make that one closer. Florida in Jacksonville and Auburn on the road aren't gimmes. Thus the cumulative estimate of wins points to a 9-3 season, and very close to 10-2. Those numbers give the Bulldogs a 3% chance of going undefeated. But if they start out 6-0 it becomes a realistic goal.

Should Georgia win the East division, they'll play—and very likely lose to—the West winner, after which they'll play in the Capital One bowl probably against Nebraska.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #13 Arkansas Razorbacks

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Arkansas Razorbacks  (SEC #4; West #3)

#13	2011 Results	Record: 11-2	Strength:#13  Success:#4  Overall:#9
		AP #5  USA #5	Bowl: Beat Kansas State 29-16 (Cotton)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #9; Athlon #13; Steele #11
		AP #10 USA #10	Bowl: Cotton (Eligibility odds: 99%)

With Arkansas just as good as last year but Alabama and LSU still on the schedule, 2012 could be a virtual repeat of 2011.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #15 (raw) #12 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #7 (adjusted)

Knile Davis' return should spark the running game while passing remains potent.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #13 (raw) #12 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #71
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #13 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #72

The outlook for the passing game is a mixed bag that leads to a nearly unchanged projection. On one hand, quarterback Tyler Wilson (3,638 yards, 24 TDs, 6 int) is back. On the other hand, top receivers Jairus Wright (1,117 yards, 12 TDs) and Joe Adams (652 yards) are both gone. Six other players had over 100 receiving yards and five are back including Cobi Hamilton and Chris Gragg who combined for over 1,000. Three starters are back on the line which suggests protection will be about the same. Arkansas' passing game should be as strong as it was last season.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #84 (raw) #64 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #36 (adj.)

Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo combined for 1,128 yards and 6 touchdowns, not enough to make the ground game feared. Both are back and Knile Davis, who had 1,322 yards in 2010 but was lost right before the 2011 season, is back. The offensive line should be just as good as last year, losing two starters but returning Travis Swanson, Alvin Bailey, and Jason Peacock. With Davis back along with their two best options from last year the rushing numbers should improve.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #64    Pass Defense  per-game: #64   Per-attempt: #19
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #35 (raw) #37 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #34	'11 picks: #47
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #40 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #32	'12 picks: #87

Arkansas' defense was pretty good, not great, last year and will be about the same, if not down slightly. The main area of decline looks to be interceptions. The Razorbacks had 12 last year and that ranked them #47 in the nation when adjusted for the teams they faced. This year they return less than half of their pass defences (breakups plus interceptions) including just 4 of 12 picks.

The secondary returns two starters including Eric Bennett but they lose Tramaine Thomas who had 5 interceptions. Tenarius Wright moves to linebacker, where Alonzo Highsmith returns but Jerry Franklin (#1 w/101 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss) and Jerico Nelson are gone. Two  starters return to the defensive line but they lose Jake Bequette who led with 10 sacks; luckily for the Razorbacks he is one of only a few players with a sack to depart, so the pass rush should be just as strong.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The Arkansas kicking game was excellent last year, and both Zach Hocker (21 of 27 field goals) and punter Dylan Breeding (45.3 average) are back.
• Return Game:  Arkansas' return game was even better than its kicking game, but it's in trouble this year. Joe Adams returned four punts for touchdowns and averaged 16.9 yards; Adams is gone and they're not going to replicate that, so it represents a big step back from last year. Both Dennis Johnson and Marquel Wade averaged 25.6 yards per kickoff return and had a touchdown apiece; Johnson is back but Wade was kicked off the team, meaning they lose 5 touchdown returns from last year. Johnson is good but he won't have 6 touchdowns, especially with the new return rules allowing fewer opportunities.
• Turnovers projection:  Arkansas might have fewer interceptions on defense, but it will mostly be offset by their fumble margin which should even out from last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #17          2011 Recruiting Rank: #15
John L. Smith's first recruiting class keeps up with the rest of the SEC, essentially in a group of about 8 SEC schools in the 11-20 range in class ranking. There was no real decline from last year since Smith took the job so late and almost all the recruits had been signed, sealed, and delivered by Bobby Petrino. Petrino, of course, was fired after he lied about not having a girl on the back of his motorcycle whom he'd hired for a job in the football program after he crashed said motorcycle.

2011 Recap
Only two teams beat Arkansas last year: #1 Alabama and #2 LSU. Did that make them the #3 team in the nation? Not really; they lost each game by 24 points. But they beat #9 South Carolina handily, beat Auburn by 24, and crushed Mississippi State in a rout. They had more trouble with Texas A&M and Vanderbilt (and even Mississippi and Troy) but they silently compiled a solid 10-2 record, and ended up #5 in the final AP poll. Because they were the third-highest rated team in the conference, they were ineligible for a BCS bowl; due to the dominance of the West division of the SEC, they were #5 in the nation but only #3 in their own division. Arkansas played strong offense all year and average defense, with a lapse against Troy (38-28) being their only bad performance on offense and defense all season. They did seem to have a problem putting away a few teams they underestimated, Troy and Mississippi (and perhaps Vanderbilt, too). They didn't have the same issue against Kansas State, winning the Cotton Bowl 29-16.

2012 Outlook

Arkansas 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Jacksonville State	100%	W
9/8	Sat	N	Louisiana-Monroe	97%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	28%	L
9/22	Sat	vs.	Rutgers	79%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	53%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*Auburn	65%	W
10/13	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	97%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	94%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	84%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*South Carolina	49%	L
11/17	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	71%	W
11/23	Fri	vs.	*LSU	32%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

Arkansas hosts Alabama in mid-September and it's pretty safe to say their first two games will not have prepared them for it. On the other hand, the early weeks will allow some players to completely heal injuries they might have.

Like last year, the Razorbacks will probably lose to the Tide, and also to LSU late in the year. We give them every other game except the tossup at South Carolina. So the Razorbacks could repeat at 10-2, or slip to 9-3. If they lose at Texas A&M, then 8-4.

The cumulative projection is 8-4 by a hair, with 9-3 almost as likely. 9-4 is the "mode" estimate too, in that it's the single most likely outcome according to our assigned percentages.

In other words it looks a lot like last year for the Razorbacks, unless they can find a way to beat the Tide and/or the Tigers. Most likely, it's back to the Cotton Bowl, where this year the opponent might be Oklahoma State.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish  (Independent #1)

#14	2011 Results	Record: 8-5	Strength:#18  Success:#32  Overall:#19
		AP NR USA #36	Bowl: Lost to FSU 18-14 (Champs Sports)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #33; Athlon #20; Steele #19
		AP #26  USA #24	Bowl: Belk Bowl (Eligibility odds: 97%)

For the second year running we are picking Notre Dame to have a really solid season. Now that everyone's forgotten about them it might actually happen.

Offense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #49 (raw) #28 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #27 (adjusted)

The offense was good but erratic last year. With another new quarterback, the Irish might still run hot and cold.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #40 (raw) #36 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #17
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #22 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #18

Tommy Rees was Notre Dame's quarterback du jour last year, passing for 2,871 yards and 20 touchdowns but throwing 14 interceptions. 2009's QB du jour Dayne Crist transferred setting up a battle between Rees and backup Andrew Hendrix (249 yards) that was won by redshirt freshman Everett Golson. Whoever actually plays will be without Michael Floyd (1,147 yards, 9 TDs) but the rest of the group is back including tight end Tyler Eifert (803) and three others with over 200 yards. However Brian Kelly juggles the quarterbacks he usually gets a good result.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #56 (raw) #42 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #41 (adj.)

Cierre Wood, who had 1,102 yards and 9 touchdowns last year, is back. At least, after he serves a 2-game suspension. Since Jonas Gray (791 yards, 12 TDs) is gone, they'll be down to WR/RB Theo Riddick who had just 63 last year but has always had great potential. After Navy and Purdue Wood should reclaim his starting role and the team's ground game will be about the same as last year. The offensive line returns three starters: Braxston Cave, Zack Martin, and Chris Watt.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #15    Pass Defense  per-game: #46   Per-attempt: #24
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #24 (raw) #11 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #52	'11 picks: #84
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #19 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #54	'12 picks: #106

Four of the team's top five tacklers are gone, meaning the defense may be weaker despite returning six starters. The defensive line essentially returns two starters to the 3-4, but they lose sacks leader Aaron Lynch (5.5 sacks). Manti Te'o had 5 sacks among his 128 tackles and he's back along with two other starting linebackers while Darius Fleming departs. The secondary is hit hard as starters Harrison Smith (10 pass breakups), Robert Blanton, and Gary Gray are gone. Further, projected starter Lo Wood is out with an Achilles' tendon injury, and backup safety Austin Collinsworth could be out for the season too. Naturally we see the pass defense taking most of the hit but overall the defense is still strong.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  David Ruffer exits on an off year with 10 of 16 field goals—he was 23 of 24 in '10 and '11—and Nick Tausch (14 of 17 in 2009) will probably take the job while Kyle Brindza continues to handle kickoffs. Punter Ben Turk (40.3 average) is back.
• Return Game:  George Atkinson was marvellous on kickoff returns with two touchdowns and a 26.1 yard average. On the other hand, John Goodman had 5 yards on 8 punt returns—a 0.6 yard average. Needless to say he's being replaced, probably by Theo Riddick.
• Turnovers projection:  Notre Dame had terrible luck with fumbles last year—and not just the -6 fumble margin (lost 12, gained 6). They had goal-line fumbles returned for touchdowns by both USF and USC. Their fumble margin shouldn't be as bad, plus the QBs probably won't throw 17 interceptions this year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #27          2011 Recruiting Rank: #11
Brian Kelly is in year three, when great thing are expected from coaches (and often delivered). Notre Dame has been waiting for a great season—11 or more wins—since 1993, and for a just plain "very good" season—9 or more wins—since Charlie Weis' 3-9 debacle in 2007. Brian Kelly has had two 8-5 years in a row, and he's had none of the "Luck of the Irish" that Notre Dame is so famous for. In the off-season he had to deal with his quarterback (Rees) drunkenly assaulting a police officer (1 game suspension) and Kelly himself had surgery for a herniated disc. This year's recruiting class is decent but one of the biggest catches—corner Tee Shepard—left school in March. The Irish did get Gunner Kiel, the nation's top quarterback recruit, who originally committed to Indiana.

2011 Recap
Notre Dame's promising 2011 season turned ugly right away at home against South Florida. The Irish turned the ball over several times, including once when they were knocking on the door and USF returned the fumble for a touchdown. That ended up being the difference in the game. They led Michigan 24-7 but Denard Robinson led an incredible comeback capped by a last-few-seconds touchdown pass. Just like that, Notre Dame was forgotten again on the national scene. Their next four games weren't all that impressive at the time, but in retrospect they beat four bowl teams including a top 25 Michigan State squad, and beat all but Pitt soundly. They repeated their goal-line-fumble to opponent-touchdown trick against USC, another 14-point swing in a 31-17 game. The Irish embarked on another 4-game winning streak, this time against less impressive opposition, and marched into Stanford with an 8-3 record. They were outplayed by the Cardinal but not completely embarrassed, and it was one of their better defensive efforts to hold Andrew Luck's team to 28 points. Overall the defense was fairly consistent but the offense was either well above-average (31 at Michigan, 31 vs. MSU, 38 at Purdue, 59 vs. Air Force, 56 vs. Navy, 45 at Maryland) or pathetic (20 vs. USF, 15 at Pitt, 17 vs. USC, 24 at Wake, 16 at B.C., 14 at Stanford); there was no in-between.

2012 Outlook

Notre Dame 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Navy	94%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Purdue	85%	W
9/15	Sat	@	Michigan State	56%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	Michigan	45%	L
10/6	Sat	vs.	Miami (Florida)	90%	W
10/13	Sat	vs.	Stanford	53%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	BYU	83%	W
10/27	Sat	@	Oklahoma	15%	L
11/3	Sat	vs.	Pittsburgh	86%	W
11/10	Sat	@	Boston College	83%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	Wake Forest	93%	W
11/24	Sat	@	USC	13%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 97%

 

Notre Dame should have that elusive 9-win season this year. Either by going 9-3, as we have them game-by-game, or by going 8-4 (per the cumulative projection) and winning their bowl game. The most clear path to 9-3 includes beating both Michigan State on the road and Stanford at home. It's more likely that they win one of those and finish 8-4.

What about the truly elusive 11-win season, is it possible? Maybe. But with games at Oklahoma and USC, it's very doubtful they can go 11-1 in the regular season. They'll need to go 10-2 and win a bowl game. So now they also need to beat Michigan, a game that's pretty close to being a tossup as it's played in South Bend.

Other than the games mentioned the Irish shouldn't have a lot of trouble. Navy probably isn't great this year and playing in Dublin makes it a home game, Purdue is a home game, Miami in Chicago is a home game, BYU is a home game, Pitt is a home game, Boston College isn't a huge threat, and Wake Forest is a home game.

Make no mistake, the schedule is tough since there aren't really any bad teams on it. But Notre Dame should be good enough this year to win nine games one way or another. Eleven wins is going to have to wait. 10-2 would get the Irish to a BCS bowl but we don't have them doing that, so they'll have to settle for the Belk Bowl I guess, taking the place of a Big East team.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #15 Nebraska Cornhuskers

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Nebraska Cornhuskers  (Big Ten #3; Legends #2)

#15	2011 Results	Record: 9-4	Strength:#24  Success:#22  Overall:#25
		AP #24  USA #24	Bowl: Lost to S. Carolina 30-13 (Capital One)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #25; Athlon #14; Steele #16
		AP #17  USA #16	Bowl: Capital One (Eligibility odds: 99%)

Nebraska will be stronger this year, but probably not quite strong enough to contend for the national title or even be favored for the Big Ten crown.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #50 (raw) #31 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #18 (adjusted)

The main pieces are back on the offense, they just have to take it to the proverbial next level.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #107 (raw) #98 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #51
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #77 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #54

After experiencing some growing pains during his freshman and sophomore years Taylor Martinez is back to lead the Husker offense. Last year he increased his yardage to 2,089 yards and touchdowns to 13, with 8 interceptions. His completion percentage fell a bit to 56%. Seven of last year's top eight receivers are back, including the top three led by Kenny Bell (461 yards). Martinez should top his numbers again.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #15 (raw) #14 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #6 (adj.)

Nebraska was again a running powerhouse behind Rex Burkhead (1,357 yards, 15 touchdowns) and Martinez (874, 9). Three more had around 100 yards but basically it's a 1-2 punch. Spencer Long is back on the o-line with half-time starters Andrew Rodriguez and Seung Hoon Choi, as well as 2010 starter Jeremiah Sirles; part-time starter Tyler Moore was back too but he left due to personal issues. Nebraska could have a top ten rushing game in 2012.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #55    Pass Defense  per-game: #22   Per-attempt: #45
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #44 (raw) #35 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #93	'11 picks: #66
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #32 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #84	'12 picks: #75

Nebraska's defense slipped a lot last year and it won't get back to where it was right away, not when they lose LaVonte David who had 133 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Two starting linebackers return including Will Compton, but it's not the same without NFL-bound David. The defensive line loses star Jared Crick (also NFL-bound) but he played less than half of last season; with three starters back including Cameron Meredith (5 sacks) the D-line will be stronger this year. The secondary loses two starters including Alfonzo Dennard (NFL) but Daimion Stafford (10 pass break ups) is back. Despite losing three players to the NFL the defense will be just as good this year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Brett Maher is back for his senior year after making 19 of 23 field goals and averaging 44.5 yards per punt last year. He is truly one of Nebraska's most valuable players.
• Return Game:  Ameer Abdullah is also doubly valuable to the team as the 'Huskers top kick returner (29.3 average, 1 touchdown) and punt returner (7.1 average). WR Jamaal Turner will field punts as well.
• Turnovers projection:  Nebraska's turnover margin might be slightly improved (fewer fumbles and interceptions thrown) but it's hard to say, and probably not by too much.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #44          2011 Recruiting Rank: #29
Bo Pelini has already been at Nebraska for four years, hard to believe. He's had two 9-win and two 10-win seasons so far, which is almost good enough for Nebraska football. He's not in danger right now, but remember how John Cooper got fired from Ohio State for going 9-3 three years in a row? I think 10-3 is the new 9-3, so Pelini better have an 11-win season sometime soon.

2011 Recap
The first sign that Nebraska's defense was once again fading away from the "Blackshirts" ideal came against Fresno State, who scored 29. Washington put up 38 in game 3, and then Wisconsin kicked the door wide open by scoring 48 points in a lop-sided win. The defense wasn't any better against Ohio State but the offense did enough to win 34-27. Against Michigan State, the D was at its best, holding the Spartans to three points, but the offense let the team down against Northwestern at home in a huge 28-25 upset that cost the Cornhuskers the spot in the Big Ten title game. They beat Penn State 17-14 but were shredded at Michigan 45-17 similar to the Wisconsin rout. Again, they came back strong at home, beating Iowa 20-7 in another great defensive performance. The Cornhuskers normally only played to their potential on offense OR defense; if they did both, they'd be a great team. Arguably they only played well on both sides of the ball against Chattanooga, Wyoming, Minnesota, and Michigan State. They played poorly on both sides in the second half of the 30-13 loss to South Carolina.

2012 Outlook

Nebraska 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	85%	W
9/8	Sat	@	UCLA	69%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	92%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	100%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	44%	L
10/6	Sat	@	*Ohio State	45%	L
10/20	Sat	@	*Northwestern	86%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	40%	L
11/3	Sat	@	*Michigan State	51%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	90%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	94%	W
11/23	Fri	@	*Iowa	74%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

Nebraska again looks like one of the Big Ten's best teams, but a few key games could go against them based on the location.

The Cornhuskers play a challenging pre-conference schedule with C-USA winner Southern Miss, an improved UCLA on the road, and Sun Belt champ Arkansas State. After a breather (2-9 Idaho State), four of their next five games are critical.

First Wisconsin at home and Ohio State on the road. If they had the Badgers on the road and the Buckeyes at home they'd be favored in one game; instead they are slight underdogs in both. Michigan and Michigan State are better situated, so that they might beat the Spartans but it's a tossup.

The last three games should be comfortable wins and the 'Huskers should be about 9-3. If they end up #3 in the Big Ten, assuming two BCS teams from the league as usual, they'll go back to the Capital one and face another SEC team, maybe Georgia.

But the losses are all close so going undefeated isn't unrealistic, although it would take a lot of focus and some luck; we give it a 1% chance. Going 10-2 or better is about a 29% chance. That and a bowl victory would get Pelini that elusive 11-win season that should bring around more of the faithful.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #16 South Carolina Gamecocks

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South Carolina Gamecocks  (SEC #5; East #2)

#16	2011 Results	Record: 11-2	Strength:#21  Success:#11  Overall:#14
		AP #9  USA #8	Bowl: Beat Nebraska 30-13 (Capital One)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #11; Athlon #10; Steele #20
		AP #9  USA #9	Bowl: Outback (Eligibility odds: 94%)

South Carolina's home/road schedule sets up several too-close-to-call games that will determine how successful the Gamecocks' season is.

Offense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #42 (raw) #32 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #32 (adjusted)

This year's offense looks about as good as last year's; if Marcus Lattimore has a full year healthy, it will be better.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #97 (raw) #89 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #88
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #97 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #92

Connor Shaw won the starting job last year, lost it, then got it back when Stephen Garcia (844 yards, 4 TDs, 9 int) finally wore out his welcome in Spurrierville. Shaw finished with 1,448 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 6 picks. The production wasn't exactly electric, and Alshon Jeffery (762 receiving yards, 8 TD catches) is gone along with #3 Bruce Ellington (211). Pretty much every one else who caught a pass is back starting with Ace Sanders (#2 w/383) so things won't be bad as long as a few step up. Protection wasn't good last year and won't be much better this season. Shaw will beat his own numbers from last year but overall there might not be a big improvement.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #26 (raw) #25 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #17 (adj.)

Marcus Lattimore had 818 yards and 10 touchdowns in just about half the season. QB Shaw was #2 with a solid 525 net and Brandon Wilds #3 with 486. Give Lattimore a full year injury-free and the team's running game will jump. The offensive line has T.J. Johnson and A.J. Cann back plus a few part-timers. Still, it's a healthy Lattimore that makes the difference. He probably won't be 100% right away but as long as no new injuries hit, South Carolina should forge well into the top 25 in rushing.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #14    Pass Defense  per-game: #2   Per-attempt: #2
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #11 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #30	'11 picks: #8
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #17 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #35	'12 picks: #33

South Carolina had a great defense last year, strong against the run and even better vs. the pass (#2 only to Alabama). They were also top ten in interceptions adjusted for their opponents. Overall they were the #10 scoring defense in the nation.

This year's model is a slight downgrade but still among the best. Particularly in the front seven, where five starters are back—and that doesn't even include Jadeveon Clowney, who was a backup last year but still had 8 sacks. Devin Taylor (6 sacks) is among two starters back on the 4-3 D-line, which loses Melvin Ingram (10 sacks). At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Antonio Allen but Shaq Wilson is back and they move DeVonte Holloman in from safety. D.J. Swearinger is the only starter back in the secondary, however, a fact reflected in our much-reduced estimate for picks this season (they had 19 last year). Akeem Aguste, a 2010 starter, is coming back but has been delayed by another injury; he'll miss at least 3 games. Either way the pass defense won't be what it was last year but the rush defense should remain tough.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Both kicker Jay Wooten (7 of 11 field goals last year) and punter Joey Scribner-Howard (38.9 average) are gone. The kicker will be one of freshman Nick St. German, senior Adam Yates, or redshirt freshman Landon Ard. Sophomore Patrick Fish or junior Mike Williamson will punt.
• Return Game:  Ace Sanders had a touchdown return on a punt last year, while Bruce Ellington averaged 23.1 per kickoff return. With Ellington playing only basketball this season, Victor Hampton (25.4) will receive more kickoffs.
• Turnovers projection:  More than any other team, South Carolina should reduce its interceptions thrown. Connor Shaw threw only 6 picks last year, with Stephen Garcia responsible for 9. Even if Shaw doubles his picks that's still an overall reduction of 3, and that's probably a worst-case. Unfortunately, the defense probably "loses" more interceptions than any other team, too; just 7 of 19 interceptions are back and they didn't have an overwhelming number of pass breakups. We feel the reduction in turnovers gained might cancel out the benefit of fewer picks thrown almost exactly.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #18          2011 Recruiting Rank: #4
This year's class isn't quite as good as last year's but that's to be expected. For one thing a top five class is usually large and full of great players, and next year's class is necessarily smaller. That's true in this case. Also, this year's class has already had more DNQs than last year's did at this time; it's down to 22 players from 25. Still, it's a high-quality group and further helps Steve Spurrier toward his goal of winning championships. So far at SC all he has is one SEC East championship.

2011 Recap
The first half of South Carolina's season was all about Marcus Lattimore and Stephen Garcia, but neither was there after mid-year. The Gamecock's opener was almost a disaster, with East Carolina taking a 17-0 lead before Spurrier pulled Shaw for Garcia, who led a huge comeback win. After that, Garcia and Lattimore sparked narrow wins over Georgia and Navy, while the defense controlled Vanderbilt. The offense stalled against Auburn and Garcia was dismissed due to yet another team violation. With Shaw, the offense exploded against Kentucky, but Lattimore was lost against Mississippi State; South Carolina barely won that game, limped to a win over Tennessee, and lost to Arkansas. They managed to beat Florida and The Citadel and had a good outing against Clemson winning 34-13. The first half of the Capital One bowl against Nebraska was sloppy and close, but the Gamecocks scored the only points of the second half to win 30-13.

2012 Outlook

South Carolina 2012 schedule & forecast
8/30	Thu	@	*Vanderbilt	38%	L
9/8	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	94%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	UAB	99%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	60%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Kentucky	89%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	50%	L
10/13	Sat	@	*LSU	14%	L
10/20	Sat	@	*Florida	47%	L
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	71%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	50%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	Wofford	97%	W
11/24	Sat	@	Clemson	49%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 93%

 

The close games will decide whether this is just another good season or a great one. Right now our projection leans toward "just good."

The opener at Vanderbilt could be a loss. Don't give up on the team if it is, since Vandy is our surprise top 25 pick this year. A win would actually be a good case that the Gamecocks are going to be something special. The next two games tell us nothing. Then comes another revealing game: Missouri at home. Go 4-0 at this point (5-0, as they should beat Kentucky) and the team is probably very good.

Then over the final 7 games there are 4 essential tossups: Georgia, at Florida, Arkansas, and at Clemson. Win all four and this could be a season to remember. Lose all four and the Gamecocks might not go to a bowl game.

Actually, even if they lose all four they should still go to a bowl game, but they're little leeway. Game-by-game we give the Gamecocks just one win of the four for a 7-5 record. The cumulative projection of course splits it 2 and 2, and they get an 8-4 projected record out of it. But win every moderate probability game on the chart and South Carolina is 11-1 with a loss to LSU.

If they finish 8-4 and are the #5 team in the SEC, they'll go to the Outback Bowl against a Big Ten team. Since Ohio State is skipped over and the Big Ten usually has two BCS teams, their opponent could be Purdue.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #17 West Virginia Mountaineers

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

West Virginia Mountaineers  (Big Twelve #4)

#17	2011 Results	Record: 10-3	Strength:#25  Success:#20  Overall:#24
		AP #17  USA #18	Bowl: Beat Clemson 70-33 (Orange)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #10; Athlon #12; Steele #23
		AP #11  USA #11	Bowl: Alamo (Eligibility odds: 95%)

The Mountaineers hope that the aftereffect of their demolition of Clemson in the Orange Bowl carries through to their first season in the Big Twelve.

Offense 7.5 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #13 (raw) #14 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #4 (adjusted)

West Virginia should have one of the very best offenses in the country in 2012.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #6 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #49
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #3 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #41

Geno Smith threw for 4,385 yards last year with an amazing 31:7 touchdown:interception ratio. That put the Mountaineer passing game in the top ten nationally. This year it should be in the top five as Smith returns along with the incredible receiving duo of Stedman Bailey (1,279 yards, 12 TDs) and Tavon Austin (1,186 and 8). #3 Ivan McCartney (585) is back, too, but after that everyone who had 100+ yards is gone (except maybe RB Dustin Garrison), though they do get J.D. Woods (205 in '10) back. A few WR recruits didn't qualify (or will greyshirt) so depth might be their only issue.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #96 (raw) #78 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #58 (adj.)

The big question mark on the offense is Dustin Garrison, who is on the borderline of redshirting due to his pre-bowl game ACL injury. Garrison led the team with 742 yards as a freshman, and though Shawne Alston (416, 12 TDs) is a decent replacement he's a completely different type of runner, as is Ryan Clarke who returns after missing 2011. The offensive line returns three starters from last year—Joe Madsen, Jeff Braun, and Pat Eger—and one from 2010, Josh Jenkins. We count Garrison as 50% back, and the ground game is set to improve with his return—either more than we show if he does, or less than we show if he doesn't.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #61    Pass Defense  per-game: #51   Per-attempt: #27
Defense 6 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #64 (raw) #69 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #33	'11 picks: #24
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #77 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #58	'12 picks: #39

One thing that will get worse for the Mountaineers this year is the pass rush. The team had 31 sacks last year and around 1/3 of those are back. They lose Bruce Irvin (8.5 sacks) and Julian Miller (6 sacks) from the d-line and #1 tackler Najee Goode (5 sacks) at linebacker. The Mountaineers switch to a 3-4 from a 3-3-5 and Terence Garvin moves to linebacker. The secondary loses Eain Smith and Keith Tandy (9 pass breakups, 4 int) but Pat Miller is back along with Darwin Cook of the famous 99-yard fumble recovery touchdown (complete with tackling of Orange Bowl mascot girl) against Clemson.

The defense takes a small step down overall but the pass defense will be hurt the most as there will be less pressure on the quarterback—not good in the pass-happy Big Twelve.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Seniors Tyler Bitancurt (16 of 22 field goals) and Corey Smith (39.7 punting average) are both back.
• Return Game:  WR Tavon Austin was and is still primary kickoff and punt returner, with two touchdowns on kickoffs and a 26.1 average, and a 14.1 average on punts last year.
• Turnovers projection:  The defense will probably have fewer than last year's 14 picks, but the team's fumble margin should improve so they basically even out.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #34          2011 Recruiting Rank: #49
As is expected, year two of Dana Holgorsen's coaching tenure here yields an improved recruiting class, one that is pretty much in the middle of the pack for the Big Twelve in West Virginia's debut year. There has been some attrition already, with top WR recruit Deontay McManus not joining the team this year (either DNQ or grayshirting).

2011 Recap
Like every team in the hunt for the Big East title, West Virginia was hot one week, cold the next. Their pre-conference season was uninspiring but mostly successful, with a 4-1 start highlighted by a win over minor bowl team Marshall, a narrow win over Maryland, and a 55-10 win over Bowling Green that was probably their best overall performance. They also played LSU tough before the Tigers pulled away. In the Big East they were erratic, blasting UConn one week, getting crushed by Syracuse the next, then beating Rutgers before falling to Louisville. They managed to win out, beating Cincy, Pitt, and USF by a combined 7 points to form a 3-way tie at the top that they ultimately won by being the highest-rated in the BCS. Nothing they did really prepared us for the smackdown they put on Clemson. What started as a back-and-forth shootout became carnage by halftime and the Mountaineers won 70-33.

2012 Outlook

West Virginia 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Marshall	96%	W
9/15	Sat	N	James Madison	97%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	Maryland	94%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	72%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*Texas	23%	L
10/13	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	56%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	62%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	*TCU	66%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	28%	L
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	21%	L
11/23	Fri	@	*Iowa State	61%	W
12/1	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	95%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

 

West Virginia moves to the Big Twelve and they should be able to handle all but the very best conference teams. Playing at Texas and at Oklahoma State will be tough, as will hosting Oklahoma. Those three are fairly certain losses.

But everything else is manageable. The season starts with three cupcake games, Marshall, James Madison, and Maryland—M & M & M candies for the Mountaineers. They host Baylor, who won't be the same team as last year.

After Texas they have three hard games against Texas Tech, Kansas State, and TCU, and this is where we'll learn the most about the team. Winning all three would be a challenge even though we favor them in all, as well as Iowa State on the road. They close with another easy game, Kansas at home.

All told they should have three or four losses, maybe five if they're as erratic as they were last year. If they finish #4 in the conference they'll go to the Alamo Bowl and face a Pac-12 team, probably Stanford.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #18 Ohio State Buckeyes

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Ohio State Buckeyes  (Big Ten #4; Leaders #2)

#18	2011 Results	Record: 6-7	Strength:#37  Success:#47  Overall:#40
		AP NR USA NR	Bowl: Lost to Florida 24-17 (Gator Bowl)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #14; Athlon #6; Steele #10
		AP #18 USA N/A	Bowl: None (Ineligible for post-season)

Like everyone else, we're predicting a big turnaround season for the Buckeyes, though not quite dramatic as some are. Our analysis really doesn't take into account the hiring of Urban Meyer as coach—other than the resultant incredible recruiting class—so we would expect it pretty much regardless of head coach.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #84 (raw) #62 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #36 (adjusted)

Last year's stagnant offense will get an injection from Meyer's spread offense, and more significantly he's going no-huddle with aspirations of running 85 plays a game. He won't get there but a faster tempo will put more points on the board, and luckily he has a defense that can absorb the extra drives that will be granted to the opposition.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #119 (raw) #113 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #118
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #85 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #120

Last year's passing game was simply pathetic, and beyond pathetic for a BCS school. Meyer will have the team throwing far more attempts (they had fewer than 250 last year). The team hit a low with 35 yards against Miami and topped it (or lowered it?) with a 1 in 4, 17 yard performance against Illinois (in a win!). Without Tyrelle Pryor for the whole season, Joe Bauserman had 492 yards (5 TDs, 1 int) before Braxton Miller took over and had 1,159 yards, 13 TDs and 4 picks. Bauserman is gone and Miller will improve his chops as every receiver is back except DeVier Posey who only had 162 yards last year. The top three—Devin Smith, Corey Brown, and Jake Stoneburner—had just 14 catches each and a combined 692 yards. The offensive line allowed a horrible 46 sacks—even more horrible when you take into account the low number of attempts (almost 1 in every 6 attempts resulted in a sack). The line will be better but with a lot more plays and a lot more passing, the sacks will still be abundant. The passing game will dig itself out of a deep hole but don't expect greatness.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #28 (raw) #22 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #56 (adj.)

QB Braxton Miller led with 715 yards last year, while Dan Herron had 675 in the last seven games of his senior year after his suspension ended. Carlos Hyde (566) and Jordan Hall (408) filled in well early and will do a good job in taking over this year. The offensive line has full-time starters Andrew Norwell and Jack Mewhort back along with part-time starter Marcus Hall. With more passing comes less running, and Miller will be doing a lot more of the former and less of the latter. It's not that Meyer doesn't like to run a lot, he does—but not 70% of the time like OSU did last year. Production will depend on how many plays Meyer ends up squeezing out of the offense, but we see a less productive running game though it will still outshine the passing game.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #32    Pass Defense  per-game: #19   Per-attempt: #30
Defense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #27 (raw) #20 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #67	'11 picks: #31
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #28 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #29	'12 picks: #25

The defense was solid in 2011 despite the team's woes, and it will be even better this year—which is a good thing because they'll have to be to offset the extra drives that will be produced by Meyer's hurry-up offense.

Last year's squad only totalled 23 sacks but almost every one is accounted for on this year's squad, led by John Simon's 7, so we see a big increase this year and a much stronger pass rush. Simon is one of three starters back on the defensive line as Adam Bellamy recently left the team. They are hoping to get 2010 starter Nathan Williams back early in the season, but reports are conflicting; we assume he will be back at some point. Johnathan Hankins (8 tackles for loss) is also back so the D-line will be strong regardless. At linebacker they lose two starters including Andrew Sweat but the secondary is loaded with four starters back including top tackler C.J. Barnett and Christian Bryant (8 pass breakups). The team will probably give up more points but the D will actually be stronger.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Drew Basil (16 of 19 field goals) and punter Ben Buchanan (41.3) are both back.
• Return Game:  Jordan Hall will continue to return both kickoffs (26.3 average) and punts (5.8) while Chris Fields (1 touchdown return on a punt last year) will presumably fill in while Hall is out with injury for the first few games.
• Turnovers projection:  The team's passing woes had one silver lining last year: only 5 interceptions thrown. With many more attempts and more production this year, it's bound to exceed that by quite a bit.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #2          2011 Recruiting Rank: #14
Normally a coaching change means a worse recruiting year than the one before, but for some reason there was an exception this time as Ohio State went from interim coach Luke Fickell to 2-time national championship winner Urban Meyer. The future looks bright for OSU's D-line as several of the very top recruits were linemen, including 5-star recruits Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington.

2011 Recap
At the end of 2010, the plan for 2011 was: get through the early, easier games somehow without Terrelle Pryor and company, then with his return for the Nebraska game coast to a Big Ten Leaders division title and Rose Bowl berth. But Pryor defected from the team and coach Jim Tressel was fired, and worse, Joe Bauserman proved very inadequate. The offense struggled against Toledo and had just 35 passing yards in the loss to Miami. After the Michigan State and Nebraska losses, and the delay of Bam Herron and DeVier Posey's return, many wondered if the Buckeyes would even reach bowl eligibility. The rest of the team still had talent, however, especially on defense, and they handed Illinois their first loss and then upset Wisconsin. The Indiana win made them 6-3 and bowl eligible. But that was the last win of the season. They were upset by Purdue in overtime, dropped a close game to Penn State, and lost to Michigan for the first time since 2003. They dropped the Gator bowl to the Gators, 24-17, for a losing record—OSU's first in 45 years.

2012 Outlook

Ohio State 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	86%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	74%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	California	75%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	UAB	99%	W
9/29	Sat	@	*Michigan State	47%	L
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	57%	W
10/13	Sat	@	*Indiana	94%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	84%	W
10/27	Sat	@	*Penn State	78%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	78%	W
11/17	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	26%	L
11/24	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	37%	L
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%*

 

We are predicting what everyone else is, a turnaround season for the Buckeyes. We pick them as the favorite in 9 games and the cumulative odds just barely reduce that to 8-4.

Winning should start right away with Miami of Ohio, though there will still be some players missing in week 2 (and maybe 3) to make the UCF and Cal games closer. UAB will be a blowout.

With these games as warmups and a few decent tests, they're ready to take on Michigan State, but probably aren't ready to win that one on the road. It should be close. They can, however, beat Nebraska at home. The Buckeyes will probably be 1-1 in those two.

Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, and Illinois should all be wins, then the last two are the toughest two games. By that time, however, Ohio State might have grown into its skin and be capable of winning one or both. But either way they won't be going to the Big Ten title game or a bowl game due to NCAA sanctions. Urban Meyer will have to wait till next year to try for his third national championship.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #19 Vanderbilt Commodores

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Vanderbilt Commodores  (SEC #6; East #3)

#19	2011 Results	Record: 6-7	Strength:#32  Success:#74  Overall:#31
		AP NR USA NR	Bowl: Lost to Cincinnati 31-24 (Liberty)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #52; Athlon #41; Steele #47
		AP NR USA NR	Bowl: Chik-Fil-A (Eligibility odds: 99%)

There's always one outside-of-the-box pick in our top 25, it seems, and this is it: Vanderbilt in the top 20.

Offense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #61 (raw) #46 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #21 (adjusted)

Improvements in both passing and rushing should put Vandy's offense in the top 25.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #99 (raw) #90 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #78
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #62 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #83

Jordan Rodgers is back after passing for 1,524 yards and 9 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Backup Larry Smith is gone; he had 668 yards, 5 TDs, and 6 picks. Not great numbers but this year the passing game should move up to be at least average. Wyoming transfer Austin Carta-Samuels (1,702 yards, 9 TDs, 8 int) is eligible this year and should push Rodgers and provide a solid backup; like Rodgers, he can run the ball, too (392 yards in '10). Seven of last year's top 8 receivers are back, including Jordan Matthews (778 yards) and Chris Boyd (473). The passing game won't be great but it shouldn't lag nearly as much as last season.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #48 (raw) #32 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #10 (adj.)

Zac Stacy powered the offense with 1,193 yards and 14 touchdowns last year, while QB Rodgers added 420 net yards. Jerron Seymour (268) is also back, and Warren Norman who had 783 yards in 2009 is back from medical redshirt. The offensive line returns starters Wesley Johnson and Ryan Seymour, while half-time starters Josh Jelesky and Andrew Bridges are back as well. The running game should be stronger this year and the (slightly) more dangerous passing game will take pressure off the runners.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #20    Pass Defense  per-game: #39   Per-attempt: #11
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #30 (raw) #29 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #58	'11 picks: #7
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #31 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #66	'12 picks: #17

Vanderbilt's solid defense loses only four starters, but among those are the team's top three tacklers and the other lead the team in sacks. Tim Fugger (8 sacks) is gone from the defensive line but three starters are back including Rob Lohr who had 5 sacks. Two starting linebackers return including Archibald Barnes but #1 tackler Chris Marve is gone, and probable replacement starter Tristan Strong left the team recently. The secondary returns two starters including Kenny Ladler but they lose Sean Richardson as well as Casey Hayward who had 10 pass-breakups and 7 interceptions.

Vanderbilt's defense will still be tough, but we see far fewer interceptions than last year's 19 (mainly due to losing Hayward). Although their top three tacklers are gone, 11 of the next 12 are back.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Ryan Fowler and Carey Spear both made 4 of 7 field goals last year and both are back but Fowler is the favorite for the job. Punter Richard Kent (42.5 average) returns as well.
• Return Game:  Kickoff returner Andre Hal (23.8 average and one touchdown return) is back as well as punt returner Jonathan Krause (4.1 average last year).
• Turnovers projection:  We look for the more experienced QB stable to throw many fewer than last year's 18 interceptions, but with the defense picking off many fewer than last year's 19, it pretty much evens out.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #39          2011 Recruiting Rank: #58
Head coach James Franklin naturally brought in a much better recruiting class in his 2nd year. It's still among the lowest-ranked in the SEC, but it's progress. Franklin made waves earlier in the year when he said he evaluated applicants for coaching positions partly based on the attractiveness of their wives.

2011 Recap
Vanderbilt played very well in its last three games of the 2011 regular season, beating Kentucky by 30, taking Tennessee into overtime, and crushing Wake Forest. Or, you can go back a few games: Vandy wiped out Army by 23, lost to top ten Arkansas by just a field goal, and took Florida down to the wire in Gainesville. In fact, you can argue that the Commodores played well the entire year. Save for the understandable one-sided losses to South Carolina and Alabama, they smoked Elon, beat UConn, demolished Ole Miss, and narrowly lost to Georgia. There's really not an embarrassing game there, and that's some very good football for a 6-6 team. Vanderbilt probably owed their bowl bid to their schedule as they played seven home games, but they played well on the road, too. The offense picked up after Jordan Rodgers took over at quarterback vs. Alabama. Despite an atrocious 4 for 19 outing against Georgia and going 10 of 27 against Army, his deeper throws and running threat made the rest of the offense function better. Vandy couldn't beat Cincy, though, losing 31-24 in the Liberty Bowl but again, not an embarrassing performance.

2012 Outlook

Vanderbilt 2012 schedule & forecast
8/30	Thu	vs.	*South Carolina	62%	W
9/1	Sat	vs.	Presbyterian	100%	W
9/8	Sat	@	Northwestern	84%	W
9/22	Sat	@	*Georgia	32%	L
10/6	Sat	@	*Missouri	42%	L
10/13	Sat	vs.	*Florida	64%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	72%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	99%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Kentucky	89%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Mississippi	81%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	69%	W
11/24	Sat	@	Wake Forest	81%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

Vanderbilt's schedule almost couldn't be laid out better for a successful season. They get South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, and Tennessee at home, which helps considerably in each game, leaving Kentucky and Mississippi as winnable road games. Their non-conference schedule includes an FCS team plus brand new FBS team Massachusetts, Wake Forest, and Northwestern.

Only Georgia and Missouri look like losses as the Commodores don't have to play Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas.

With this favorable schedule and their best team in a very long time, we give Vandy 10 wins straight up and they could even win the other two (about a 1% chance of going undefeated by our numbers). In our cumulative estimate we give them a 9-3 record.

The schedule is there, now it's up to Vandy to not only be as good as we think, but to play consistent football, too. If they're the favorite in 10 games, they want things to go to plan—unlike a normal Vanderbilt season when the Commodores are hoping for fluke victories against much more powerful opponents. Last year's team was a good example for them to follow; if they're that consistent, they should do quite well.

If Vanderbilt does finish as the #6 team in the SEC they'd go to the Chik-Fil-A Bowl and play an ACC team, probably Clemson.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #20 Missouri Tigers

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Missouri Tigers  (SEC #7; East #4)

#20	2011 Results	Record: 8-5	Strength:#15  Success:#26  Overall:#22
		AP #29  USA #27	Bowl: Beat North Carolina 41-24 (Independence)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #30; Athlon #31; Steele #26
		AP #38  USA #43	Bowl: Gator (Eligibility odds: 93%)

Missouri moves to the SEC and should do just about as well as they did in the Big Twelve.

Offense 5 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #30 (raw) #24 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #35 (adjusted)

James Franklin will be back but Henry Josey probably won't be.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #64 (raw) #66 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #25
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #64 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #33

Quarterback James Franklin had a breakout sophomore year with 2,865 passing yards and 21 touchdowns (11 interceptions) and of course, nearly 1,000 rushing yards. The passing game returns three of last year's top receivers, with #1 T.J. Moe (649) present but #2 Michael Egnew (523) gone. The offensive line's protection may slip a bit as three starters depart. Overall things here look about the same as the running game is Mizzou's offensive focus.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #9 (raw) #11 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #15 (adj.)

When Franklin wasn't passing or running the ball himself, he handed off to Henry Josey who ran for 1,168 yards and 8 touchdowns with an 8.1 per-carry average. Franklin was 2nd with 981, and Kendial Lawrence added 566. With Josey likely redshirting to complete his knee rehab Lawrence will become the focus. The offensive line has one full-time starter back, Justin Britt, and half-timer Jack Meiners while another half-timer, Travis Ruth, recently injured a tricep and is out for the year. 2010 starter Elvis Fisher was granted a sixth year, however, and that helps. Without Josey—who still might return some time this year—the running game slips but is still potent with Franklin at QB and Lawrence at RB.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #30    Pass Defense  per-game: #55   Per-attempt: #18
Defense 5 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #46 (raw) #13 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #66	'11 picks: #36
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #14 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #63	'12 picks: #28

Missouri's rushing defense will be tested in the SEC more than it was in the Big Twelve. Last year it was solid but three starters are gone from the defensive line including Jacquies Smith who had 5 sacks. At linebacker Luke Lambert (11.5 tackles for loss) departs but #1 tackler Andrew Wilson is back with Zavier Gooden and Will Ebner is back from medical redshirt. E.J. Gaines (16 pass breakups) is back on the secondary while Kenji Jackson is gone. The defense should be roughly as good as last year, but the key is the rushing defense holding up.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Punter Trey Barrow (44.8 yard average) took over as placekicker last year too, making 7 of 9 after Grant Ressel had missed 7 of 16. Barrow will perform both duties this year.
• Return Game:  Receiver T.J. Moe will field kickoffs again (23.3 average last year) and E.J. Gaines is back to field punts after averaging 10.9 per return with one touchdown take-back. Gahn McGaffie had a touchdown return against Oklahoma in 2010 and will also contribute on kickoffs.
• Turnovers projection:  We don't see much changing in terms of turnovers for the Tigers.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #43          2011 Recruiting Rank: #68
Both Missouri and Texas A&M had better recruiting classes during their transition to the SEC, and A&M had a coaching change. It seems that recruits like the idea of playing in that conference, as most of both teams' recruits came from their traditional hunting grounds. Unfortunately for the Tigers this year's class ranks near the bottom of the SEC, but they did get Dorial-Green Beckham from Springfield, Missouri, who is not only the #1 receiver prospect but to many the #1 prospect in the nation, period.

2011 Recap
Missouri had the misfortune of being a good team during a great year for the Big Twelve. After five games they were 2-3, losing close contests to two top 25 teams (Oklahoma, Kansas State) and in overtime to another (Arizona State) that was playing very well at the time. After nine games they were 4-5, with losses to two more Top 25 teams. The schedule eased a bit and they won their last three to finish 7-5. During the middle of the season they faced seven bowl teams in a row and went 3-4, beating Iowa State by a lot, Texas A&M by a little in overtime, and shutting down Texas 17-5. Missouri's overall play was fairly consistent, but this is mostly due to consistency on defense. The offense was all over the place and trended lower after the loss of Josey for the season in game 10 against Texas. The Tigers showed that their offense could pack a punch without Josey as they beat North Carolina, 41-24, in the Independence Bowl.

2012 Outlook

Missouri 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	SE Louisiana	100%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	60%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Arizona State	88%	W
9/22	Sat	@	*South Carolina	40%	L
9/29	Sat	@	Central Florida	64%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	58%	W
10/13	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	20%	L
10/27	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	95%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Florida	45%	L
11/10	Sat	@	*Tennessee	53%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	93%	W
11/24	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	43%	L
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 93%

 

After a gimme against Southeastern Louisiana it's into the SEC fire for the Tigers in a game that will tell a lot about both teams' fortunes. We're taking Missouri at home but a Georgia win would surprise no one.

The Tigers should beat Arizona State this year, and UCF and Vanderbilt are close wins, but South Carolina on the road and Alabama at home will be tough. Kentucky looks like an easy win, as does Syracuse in their last non-conference match, while Florida, Tennesee, and Texas A&M are tossups.

All of this settles out to about an 8-4 season, which would be an improvement over last year's record, with the same 5-4 conference record they had in the Big Twelve last year. The difference is the easier non-conference games, all at home.

If the Tigers finish #7 in the SEC they'd go to the Gator Bowl and face a Big Ten team such as their former annual rival, Illinois. We picked this matchup last year and it didn't happen; maybe two's a charm.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #21 Texas A&M Aggies

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Texas A&M Aggies  (SEC #8; West #4)

#21	2011 Results	Record: 7-6	Strength:#10  Success:#23  Overall:#15
		AP NR USA #32	Bowl: Beat Northwestern 33-22 (Car Care)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 7-5	Picks: Lindy's #29; Athlon #32; Steele #31
		AP #36 USA #30	Bowl: Liberty (Eligibility odds: 86%)

Last year Texas A&M was the best 6-6 team you'll ever find; they were really a top 10 team in terms of strength and a bottom 10 team in terms of luck. This year they won't be quite as good but not nearly as unlucky and should finish with a better record.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #11 (raw) #13 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #13 (adjusted)

With Kevin Sumlin—famous for his pass-heavy Houston offenses—taking over as head coach and ex-Houston QB Klift Klingsbury the offensive coordinator, look for the passing game to be emphasized even more.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #18 (raw) #20 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #4
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #19 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #4

Ryan Tannehill passed for 3,744 yards and threw 28 touchdown in his senior year, but also had 15 interceptions. With freshman Johnny Manziel stepping in, you have to wonder how many picks he might have if the Aggies throw the ball as much—or more—than last year. There's some good news in that two of the team's key receivers—Ryan Swope (1,207 yards, 11 TDs) and Uzoma Nwachukwu (639 yards)—are back, while #2 Jeff Fuller (828) departs. Six others with 100+ are back, too. The offensive line loses only one starter so last year's great protection (9 sacks in 537 attempts!) should remain. The offense won't immediately move to passing as often as Houston but it will move in that direction which should keep the adjusted yardage about the same.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #24 (raw) #20 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #40 (adj.)

Last year's leading rusher Cyrus Gray (1,045 yards, 12 TDs) is gone but #2 Christine Michael (899) is back. QB Tannehill added 306. The offensive line will certainly be conducive to running the ball, as full-time starters Patrick Lewis, Jake Matthews, and Luke Joeckel are back with half-time starters Cedric Ogbuehi and Jarvis Harrison. We'd project a similar top-20 ranking this year but the number of carries will probably drop and production will follow.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #6    Pass Defense  per-game: #91   Per-attempt: #26
Defense 5 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #73 (raw) #27 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #1	'11 picks: #86
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #27 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #4	'12 picks: #99

The defensive line spearheaded a massive pass rush which resulted in 51 sacks for the team, which ranked #1 in the nation in both raw and adjusted-for-opponent figures. Two starters are gone from the 4-man line including Tony Jerod-Eddie who had 5 sacks, but Damontre Moore (8.5 sacks) is back. The D-line also was majorly responsible, of course, for the Aggies' top ten rush defense. At linebacker all three starters return so that rush D should remain very strong. #1 tackler Jonathan Stewart joins Steven Jenkins and team sacks leader Sean Porter (9.5). The secondary is where the concern is as #2 tackler Trent Hunter and Terrence Fredrick (13 pass breakups) are among the losses. Overall the front seven's strength offsets the secondary's weakness, but the defense remains open for exploitation as occured last year.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  The Aggies suffer a huge loss as Randy Bullock, who made 29 of 33 field goal attempts last year, is gone. Taylor Bertolet will try to fill his shoes. Punter Ryan Epperson (41.2 yard average) is back.
• Return Game:  Dustin Harris averaged 18.5 yards per punt return last year with one touchdown return, and 23.4 on kickoffs, where LaKendrick Williams will join him.
• Turnovers projection:  If Ryan Tannehill throws 15 interceptions, how many does a redshirt freshman succeeding him throw? We'll find out, but unless he's very accurate and poised for a freshman—which is possible, some QBs are cautious by nature—there could be a whole mess of them.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #23          2011 Recruiting Rank: #35
Kevin Sumlin's first class is surprisingly better than A&M's previous one. Moving to the SEC may have had something to do with that. The class would have ranked #3 in the Big Twelve but is only #11 in the SEC by our numbers! Of course, we rank 8 SEC teams between #12 and #22 in recruiting this year so it's really part of a big logjam tie for 3rd place in the SEC, too. A&M landed Trey Williams from Spring, Texas, who is one of the very top running back recruits in the country.

2011 Recap
High expectations gave way to major disappointment for the Aggies in 2011. They started the year in some people's top ten (ours too) and looked it after two games. Considering Oklahoma State and Arkansas finished in the top 5, losses by a combined 5 points isn't so bad. The Aggies were 5-2 going into the Missouri game, but that's when their penchant for losing big leads really became a problem. They'd led Oklahoma State by 17, Arkansas by 18, and Missouri by 14. The Tigers tied the game and won in overtime. The Aggies then lost to Oklahoma, then Kansas State in four overtimes after leading by 10 in the 4th quarter. The Texas game was the last straw; they led by 13 early but lost by 2. The offense really didn't ever let the team down, but the defense had major lapses. In the end, however, they still rated as a top ten team, as four of their losses were to Top 25 teams, and two others were to bowl teams. Two were overtime losses, and three others were by a combined 7 points. They smoked Baylor and beat two more bowl teams. They were a prime example of a team with a mediocre record that was actually very good, but there might have been something to their team psyche that allowed those comeback wins. Playing at home doesn't seem to have helped; in fact, three of their meltdowns occurred at home. The Aggies did beat Northwestern in the Car Care Bowl which at least let them finish with a winning record.

2012 Outlook

Texas A&M 2012 schedule & forecast
8/30	Thu	@	Louisiana Tech	62%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	*Florida	62%	W
9/15	Sat	@	SMU	72%	W
9/22	Sat	vs.	South Carolina St.	100%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	47%	L
10/6	Sat	@	*Mississippi	79%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*LSU	22%	L
10/27	Sat	@	*Auburn	54%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	60%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Alabama	9%	L
11/17	Sat	vs.	Sam Houston St.	88%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	57%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 67%

 

Texas A&M's first three games aren't easy. They go on the road to face #1 WAC team Louisiana Tech, come home for their SEC debut with Florida, then it's back on the road for SMU. We favor them in all three, but going 3-0 would be an accomplishment nevertheless.

The Aggies get a breather with South Carolina State, then they face a key game with Arkansas. Like last year's game, it looks really close. Other SEC games that look close include Auburn, Mississippi State, and Missouri. We assume a win over Ole Miss and losses to LSU and Alabama. They play a 2nd FCS team, Sam Houston State, in November.

Game-by-game they should go 9-3, but so many of these outcomes are unclear that a fuzzy 7-5 season looks more likely. That's cutting it close considering that they'll need 7 wins to get to a bowl game due to their schedule.

But in the end they should get those 7 or 8 wins and as the #8 SEC team they'd go to the Liberty Bowl and play the C-USA champ—who we figure to be Sumlin's old team, Houston.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #23 Florida Gators

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Florida Gators  (SEC #9; East #5)

#23	2011 Results	Record: 7-6	Strength:#30  Success:#53  Overall:#30
		AP NR USA #36	Bowl: Beat Ohio State 24-17 (Gator)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 7-5	Picks: Lindy's #20; Athlon #26; Steele #8
		AP #23 USA #23	Bowl: Music City (Eligibility odds: 80%)

Everyone has the Gators somewhere in the 20s. Except Phil Steele, who has them in the top ten.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #73 (raw) #44 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #37 (adjusted)

Last year's offense never really clicked, though it wasn't nearly as bad as the raw scoring numbers suggested (remember they played three top five defenses: Alabama, LSU, and FSU). This year the offense gets a boost via a new offensive coordinator; the Gators may pass more and run more plays.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #91 (raw) #83 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #62
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #76 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #51

The passing game was working well early on—mainly against poor competition—but when John Brantley was hurt against Alabama that stopped. Brantley came back later in the season and finished with 2,044 yards (11 TDs, 7 int) but backups Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel completed just 47% with 2 TDs and 6 interceptions. One of the two backups will have the job in the fall and it's a mixed bag at wide receiver. Five of the top eight are back including #1 Andre Debose (432) but #2 WR/RB Chris Rainey (381) is gone. The offensive line should be improved and ultimately an increased focus on passing should lead to better numbers.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #76 (raw) #46 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #64 (adj.)

New offensive coordinator Brett Pease has given lip service to establishing the running game, but at Boise State he ran about 50/50 pass/run plays while Florida was nearly 60% run last year. That, and the fact that he seems to focus on the pass himself at the expense of the run, lead us to believe there will be fewer running plays this season. Also, both Chris Rainey (861 yards) and Jeff Demps (569 yards) are gone...and we're supposed to believe the running game gets better without those two ? Mike Gillislee (328 yards) will be the feature back, and he should do well, especially running behind an offensive line that returns the equivalent of four starters. Jonotthan Harrison and Jon Halapio started every game while Xavier Nixon, Chaz Green, and Matt Patchan started most of them. We show a drop in production but that's without taking into account any speeding up of the offense that Pease has in mind.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #19    Pass Defense  per-game: #17   Per-attempt: #25
Defense 10 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #21 (raw) #30 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #59	'11 picks: #100
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #25 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #43	'12 picks: #71

Florida's defense was already sound last year and takes a step up. It's a good thing, since if the temp on offense is increased then things will get tougher on the defense, too, and they need to be able to handle it. In this case, even accounting for a decent jump in tempo the defense moves up and if the tempo stayed the same the D would rank well inside the top 25.

The defensive line should be better even with the loss of Jaye Howard (5.5 sacks) as three starters are back and Ronald Powell (6 sacks) should return at some point in October from his spring game ACL tear. At linebacker all three starters are back including Jonathan Bostic and Jelani Jenkins. The secondary is loaded, too, with Matt Elam (9 tackles for loss, 7 pass breakups) and Josh Evans among the four starters back, and Jeremy Brown (2010 starter, various injuries) returns some time in September.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Excellent kicker Caleb Sturgis (22 of 26 attempts) is back, as is punter Kyle Christy (40.9 average).
• Return Game:  The Gators had three kick return touchdowns last year: Andre Debose and Jeff Demps on kickoff returns and Chris Rainey on a punt return. Only Debose is back, while Marcus Roberson will handle punts.
• Turnovers projection:  Florida will probably have a better fumble margin next year (-7 last year) and get more picks on defense with the loaded secondary. They'll probably throw more picks on offense but overall things look positive.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #6          2011 Recruiting Rank: #27
As expected, Will Muschamp's 2nd recruiting class is much better than his first. But who expected it to be this good? We give it 2nd place in the SEC behind Alabama, with two of the nation's most prized recruits coming to Gainesville: Defensive end Jonathan Bullard and offensive tackle D.J. Humphries. Both are from North Carolina.

2011 Recap
The myth is that Florida was rolling along on offense until the Alabama game disrupted their team and led to a long losing streak. The reality is that the offense played really well only against Tennessee and Kentucky; FAU and UAB were terrible defensively, so scoring 80 on them combined is about the same as scoring 21 on LSU and Alabama combined. It was the Gators' schedule that did them in, as they faced six bowl teams in a row (4 of them Top 25 teams) and lost 5 of the 6. Their schedule was tough—for the games they lost. The teams they beat were not very good: the aforementioned FAU and UAB, SEC dogs Tennessee and Kentucky, FCS's Furman, and 6-6 Vanderbilt was their lone bowl-game victim. Add Ohio State (6-7) to that list and you get two bowl teams defeated; not exactly the kind of season Florida fans are used to.

2012 Outlook

Florida 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	83%	W
9/8	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	38%	L
9/15	Sat	@	*Tennessee	47%	L
9/22	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	93%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*LSU	20%	L
10/13	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	36%	L
10/20	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	53%	W
10/27	Sat	N	*Georgia	36%	L
11/3	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	55%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	91%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	Jacksonville State	99%	W
11/24	Sat	@	Florida State	18%	L
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 80%

 

Florida has about four easy games on the schedule this year. Beyond that, they're going to have to search for wins. We give them South Carolina and Missouri at home. Tennessee on the road is another that recent history would suggest Florida should win. Beyond that, they're an underdog—even against new SEC member Texas A&M and SEC whipping boy Vanderbilt.

The good news is that very few games seem out of reach, either. Georgia will be tough this year but a loss isn't a foregone conclusion. They should play LSU and FSU tough, and Alabama isn't on the schedule.

There are enough possibilities there that the cumulative projection comes out to 7-5, with an 80% chance of 6-6 or better. If they finish #9 in the SEC (i.e., #8 if the SEC has 2 BCS teams) they'll go to the Music City Bowl and face an ACC team perhaps North Carolina State. But if they're as good as Phil Steele projects, they'll be upgraded about 5 bowl rungs or so.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #24 Utah Utes

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Utah Utes  (Pac-12 #4; South #2)

#24	2011 Results	Record: 8-5	Strength:#38  Success:#54  Overall:#36
		AP NR USA NR	Bowl: beat Georgia Tech 30-27 (Sun Bowl)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #26; Athlon #33; Steele #32
		AP #30 USA #32	Bowl: Holiday (Eligibility odds: 98%)

It should either be a very good year or a great year for the Utes, depending on how consistent they are.

Offense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #77 (raw) #69 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #39 (adjusted)

Last year the defense kept Utah winning, but this season the offense will more than hold its own.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #101 (raw) #74 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #101
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #32 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #96

With quarterback Jordan Wynn (727 yards, 6 TDs, 2 int) hurt most of the year, Jon Hays took over and had respectable stats (1,459 yards, 12 TDs, 8 interceptions) but the passing game was generally weak as a result. Wynn is back, as is Hays, and so are the team's six top pass catchers from last season, led by wide receiver DeVonte Christopher (663 yards). Unless Wynn gets hurt again—and in fact, even if he does since Hays has extra experience—the passing game will be far better this year.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #83 (raw) #85 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #61 (adj.)

With Wynn out the team turned to the run more than normal, and the chief beneficiary was John White who racked up a solid 1,519 yards and 15 touchdowns. WR Reggie Dunn was #2 with just 173 but he averaged 11.5 per carry; he's an option to get more carries as White was overworked last season and no one else returning had even 25 yards (Harvi Langi had 70 but left on a mission). The offensive line returns seniors Tevita Stevens, Sam Brenner, and Miles Mason, and as long as they find some help for White the ground game should be stronger.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #25    Pass Defense  per-game: #18   Per-attempt: #13
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #19 (raw) #16 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #45	'11 picks: #16
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #21 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #44	'12 picks: #16

Last year's rushing defense was great and the pass defense was even better. This year the 4-3 defensive line loses just one starter, Derrick Shelby (5 sacks) so the rushing defense could be well inside the top 25. There are issues at linebacker, however, as Trevor Reilly (also 5 sacks) is the only starter back, and they lose their top two tacklers from last year, Chaz Walker (118 tackles) and Matt Martinez. The secondary looks promising again as Brian Blechen, Eric Rowe (9 pass breakups), and Ryan Lacy (10 pass breakups) return. The team might allow a few more points but in general the defense looks about the same as last year in terms of stopping the run and pass.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Kicker Coleman Peterson (18 of 25 field goals) and punter Sean Sellwood (45 yard average) are both back.
• Return Game:  Reggie Dunn averaged 23.6 per kickoff last year and DeVonte Christopher is back as well. Griff McNabb was the main punt fielder with a 7.5 average.
• Turnovers projection:  Pretty much no change at all is foreseen in Utah's turnover profile.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #30          2011 Recruiting Rank: #47
This year's somewhat better recruiting class might be attributable to the move to the Pac-12, though it's hard to say. Utah didn't get many top 30 recruiting classes while in the Mountain West, however. The group still isn't in the top half of the Pac-12 but there are some true blue-chip players for head coach Kyle Whittingham.

2011 Recap
Utah played well in their first three games with Jordan Wynn at quarterback, but it was mostly the defense that did well against Montana State (W 27-10) and USC (L 23-14). All cylinders were firing as they destroyed BYU 54-10 thanks to numerous Cougar turnovers. From game four where Wynn was hurt, to the end of the year, Utah had five decent offensive performances but four meltdowns, all of which they lost. They beat Pitt, Oregon State, Arizona, and UCLA easily, but were flogged by Washington, Arizona State, and Cal, and even lost their last game to Colorado. For some reason the Pac-12 seems to breed erratic teams and Utah certainly became one last year. Facing Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl Utah proved the general rule that if you have 10 or more days to prepare for the Yellow Jackets, you win, though it took them overtime to accomplish it.

2012 Outlook

Utah 2012 schedule & forecast
8/30	Thu	vs.	Northern Colorado	100%	W
9/7	Fri	@	Utah State	75%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	BYU	69%	W
9/22	Sat	@	*Arizona State	72%	W
10/4	Thu	vs.	*USC	15%	L
10/13	Sat	@	*UCLA	61%	W
10/20	Sat	@	*Oregon State	61%	W
10/27	Sat	vs.	*California	70%	W
11/3	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	85%	W
11/10	Sat	@	*Washington	59%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	85%	W
11/23	Fri	@	*Colorado	90%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

 

How good could this season be? We think Utah should be favored in every game except USC. How mediocre could the season be? If Utah plays as up and down as last year they could finish 6-6 or so (missing a bowl is only a 2% possibility).

With Wynn back the erratic play should be greatly reduced and Utah should win most of the games they're favored in. You can categorize the wins by likelihood: Foregone conclusions: Northern Colorado. Very likely: Washington State, Arizona, and Colorado. Strong probability: Utah State, BYU, Arizona State, and Cal. Tight game but should win: UCLA, Oregon State, Washington.

The cumulative projection gives them 8 wins (the average), though 9-3 is the most common outcome (the mode) based on the odds. If Utah ends up the #4 team in the Pac-12 they'll go to the Holiday Bowl and face a Big Twelve team, which could be old Mountain West foe TCU.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #26 Clemson Tigers

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Clemson Tigers  (ACC #2; Atlantic #2)

#26	2011 Results	Record: 10-4	Strength:#45  Success:#19  Overall:#32
		AP #22 USA #22	Bowl: Lost to West Virginia 70-33 (Orange)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #13; Athlon #15; Steele #18
		AP #14 USA #14	Bowl: Chik-Fil-A (Eligibility odds: 98%)

Clemson's first order of business is to forget the beatdown they got in the Orange Bowl.

Offense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #24 (raw) #22 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #14 (adjusted)

With Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins back (after a couple of games in Watkins' case) the offense will be even more electric.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #21 (raw) #15 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #72
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #6 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #89

Tajh Boyd (3,823 yards, 33 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) got the early notice and was a Heisman candidate for some time. But as the season went on, Sammy Watkins became the focus of attention. Watkins finished with 1,219 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns as a true freshman. DeAndre Hopkins had 978 and he returns, too. They lose Dwayne Allen (598) but five others who had over 100+ are back. Protection was a problem (33 sacks) and will continue to be, but with Boyd, Watkins, and the rest, the passing game should be one of the best in the country. As Watkins is suspended for two games it will take just a bit to ramp up to full speed.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #60 (raw) #54 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #50 (adj.)

For most of the off-season, they had the entire crew back. Andre Ellington had 1,178 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground and he returns for the Tigers. Mike Bellamy, #2 with 343, was lost to academics. But everyone else returns including #3 Watkins (231 yards) and #5 Boyd (218). The offensive line looks to be down a few notches, though, as three full-time starters are gone. Dalton Freeman and Brandon Thomas return and the ground game should still improve.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #76    Pass Defense  per-game: #58   Per-attempt: #41
Defense 7 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #85 (raw) #76 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #73	'11 picks: #69
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #73 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #98	'12 picks: #51

The defense was absolutely embarrassed by the Mountaineers in the Orange Bowl, and even though 7 starters are back there's no certainty that the unit will get much better. One reason is the loss of Andre Branch from the defensive line; Branch had 10.5 sacks last year. They also lose Brandon Thompson, making the rushing defense poorer as just one starter returns.

There's good news behind the line, however. All three linebackers return including Corico Wright (ex- Corico Hawkins) and Jonathan Willard, and the secondary returns three starters including #1 tackler Rashard Hall. They do lose Coty Sensabaugh who had 13 pass breakups as well as future star Martin Jenkins (recently injured and out for the year) but should still reel in more picks this season. All in all it's a small step forward as the rushing defense and pass rush look weaker, but pass defense should improve.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Chandler Catanzaro (22 of 27 field goals last year) returns while punter Dawson Zimmerman (41.8 average) departs. Senior Spencer Benton surprisingly beat out freshman Bradley Pinion for the punter job, at least for week one.
• Return Game:  All-purpose phenom Sammy Watkins averaged 25.0 yards on kickoffs with one touchdown return, while fellow receiver DeAndre Hopkins will again field punts (4.9 ave).
• Turnovers projection:  The Tigers should have a slightly better turnover margin this year with small improvements in each category.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #33          2011 Recruiting Rank: #6
Dabo Swinney's 5th recruiting class isn't nearly as good as last year's, but that often happens. Last year's class was larger so naturally this one isn't as big. Not only that, there was little attrition last year and this year a couple of recruits have transferred already. There's also probably no player like Watkins in this year's crop.

2011 Recap
Clemson waited a long time for a year like 2011, their first 10-win season since 1990. Several seasons looked like a breakthrough only to end in disappointment, but last year they did it. Not that there wasn't some disappointment in the end. When the Tigers roared to an 8-0 start, they were on the short list of national title frontrunners and in pole position of the ACC having defeated FSU and Virginia Tech. But during that run the signs were clear that it wouldn't last. They had several narrow wins where they allowed the other team to score at will, particularly against Maryland and North Carolina. Because of this their Strength rating was very low for an undefeated team and it seemed just a matter of time before they fell. That happened against Georgia Tech, and after a brief respite with a 3-point win over Wake Forest, they lost to North Carolina State and South Carolina by lopsided scores. Just when it looked like the magic was gone they once again played their best against Virginia Tech, handing the Hokies a 2nd loss, again in dominant fashion. But in the Orange Bowl their porous defense proved their downfall. The offense did its part, keeping up early, but the goal-line-to-goal-line fumble return by the Mountaineers opened the floodgates and the Tigers suffered an embarrassing 70-point beatdown.

2012 Outlook

Clemson 2012 schedule & forecast
9/1	Sat	vs.	Auburn	63%	W
9/8	Sat	vs.	Ball State	93%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Furman	98%	W
9/22	Sat	@	*Florida State	17%	L
9/29	Sat	@	*Boston College	72%	W
10/6	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	67%	W
10/20	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	68%	W
10/25	Thu	@	*Wake Forest	76%	W
11/3	Sat	@	*Duke	81%	W
11/10	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	92%	W
11/17	Sat	vs.	*N.C. State	83%	W
11/24	Sat	vs.	South Carolina	50%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 98%

 

Clemson was overrated last year even as they were undefeated. This year the team is going to be even better and if they play consistently their season could be even better.

Three early games should all be wins. Sammy Watkins is out for the first two games due to marijuana possession but they should still beat Auburn at home and games 2 and 3 are gimmes. That sets up the game that could decide the Atlantic division and possibly the Orange Bowl berth as the winner should beat the Coastal rep.

We don't think Clemson will win at Florida State, but we favor them fairly solidly in the next seven games, and just barely in the eight (South Carolina). So Clemson should be 10-2 or 11-1 if they play every game up to their capabilities. Few teams ever do that, so with some slippage and an upset here and there Clemson will be about 9-3, maybe 8-4.

If they miss out on the ACC title game they still might be the #2 ACC team and go to the Chik-Fil-A Bowl where they'll face an SEC team, which this year might be an upstart Vanderbilt squad.

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2012 Pre-season Rankings: #25 Michigan State Spartans

SportsRatings 2012 College Football Pre-season Top 124

Michigan State Spartans  (Big Ten #5; Legends #3)

#25	2011 Results	Record: 11-3	Strength:#14  Success:#14  Overall:#13
		AP #11  USA #10	Bowl: Beat Georgia 33-30 3OT (Outback)
	2012 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #12; Athlon #18; Steele #17
		AP #13  USA #13	Bowl: Outback (Eligibility odds: 95%)

The offense will inevitably slip but the defense should be even stronger this year for the Spartans.

Offense 5 RS	'11 Scoring Offense: #37 (raw) #35 (adjusted for competition)
	'12 Projected Scoring Offense: #60 (adjusted)

Losing all-time passing leader Kirk Cousins and all-time receiving yardage leader B.J. Cunningham will likely stall the passing game and along with it, the offense.

Passing Game	'11 Passing Rank: #41 (raw) #32 (adjusted)	'11 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #36
	'12 Projected Passing Rank: #92 (adjusted)	'12 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #29

Kirk Cousins started at quarterback for the last three seasons and last year had 3,316 yards and 25 touchdowns. His successor Andrew Maxwell has fewer than 300 career passing yards with 1 touchdown. He's never throw an interception, if you want to look on the bright side. Actually by all accounts he will be a good one, but he's handicapped right away by MSU having to replace its top four pass catchers from last year, including B.J. Cunningham with 1,306 yards (12 TDs) and Keshawn Martin with 777. Running back Le'veon Bell's 267 is the most that is back. The offensive line will make things a bit easier as four starters are back, but look for a possibly difficult early going and less effective attack.

Rushing

'11 Rushing Rank: #81 (raw) #77 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #61 (adj.)

Le'Veon Bell led last year with 948 yards and he returns; #2 Edwin Baker departs after gaining 665. The offensive line should lead Bell to well over 1,000 yards in 2012. Seniors Chris McDonald and Fou Fonoti started every game while Dan France and Travis Jackson nearly did. With the passing game breaking in so many new faces look for the Spartans to lean more on Bell.

'11 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #2    Pass Defense  per-game: #16   Per-attempt: #12
Defense 8 RS	'11 Scoring Defense: #10 (raw) #4 (adjusted)	'11 sacks: #2	'11 picks: #15
	'12 Projected Scoring Defense: #3 (adjusted)	'12 sacks: #3	'12 picks: #15

Michigan State's defense is what made the team great last year, and it will be what keeps the team winning this year despite the personnel losses on offense. The heart of the defense is an incredible group of linebackers: Max Bullough (#1 tackler), Denicos Allen (11 sacks), and Chris Norman. They helped the defensive line shut down the run last year as the #2 rushing defense in the nation. That line loses two starters including NFL-bound Jerel Worthy but two are back including William Gholston who had 5 sacks plus 11 tackles for loss, and 2010 starter Tyler Hoover also returns. The secondary loses Trenton Robinson but everyone else is back including Isaiah Lewis. This defense might be better than last year's model.

Special Teams/Situations

• Kicking Game:  Dan Conroy (17 of 23 field goals last year) and Mike Sadler (41.1 punting average) are both back.
• Return Game:  Nick Hill averaged 26.3 yards per kickoff return last year and he may be the main punter returner in '12 as KeShawn Martin (11.0 average, 1 touchdown return) departs.
• Turnovers projection:  The only thing we see different here is more interceptions. On offense, that is, so it's a bad thing. Maxwell has 0 so far but unless the offense takes a lot fewer attempts odds are he will at least match Cousins' 10 from last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      2012 Recruiting Rank: #47          2011 Recruiting Rank: #37
Mark Dantonio has the Spartans doing what they've never done before—have back-to-back 11-win seasons. In fact, they'd only had a couple of 10-win seasons in their history, so both of the last two years are the program's single-season high-water mark for wins.

2011 Recap
Michigan State didn't impress early on. Beating Youngstown State by 22 and 1-11 FAU, then losing badly to Notre Dame? They beat Central Michigan, edged a floundering Ohio State, and beat an unproven Michigan team. In retrospect, three of those early wins were against bowl teams, and Michigan proved to be a very good team. So when the Spartans proved themselves against Wisconsin, it wasn't a fluke—even if the game-winning hail mary was. They fell at Nebraska badly the next week, but recovered to edge Minnesota, beat Iowa soundly, and finished 10-2 going into a rematch with the Badgers for a Rose Bowl berth. They fell behind early, came back and led, then fell behind again late. Keshawn Martin returned a late punt to the 3-yard line, but a roughing penalty called that back, and Wisconsin killed the clock, ending the Spartans' Rose Bowl dream. The bowl game against Georgia was even more wild, and in the end the Spartans won in triple overtime—with some help from Georgia's kicker.

2012 Outlook

Michigan State 2012 schedule & forecast
8/31	Fri	vs.	Boise State	69%	W
9/8	Sat	@	Central Michigan	88%	W
9/15	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	44%	L
9/22	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	95%	W
9/29	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	52%	W
10/6	Sat	@	*Indiana	92%	W
10/13	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	80%	W
10/20	Sat	@	*Michigan	18%	L
10/27	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	21%	L
11/3	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	49%	L
11/17	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	90%	W
11/24	Sat	@	*Minnesota	81%	W
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 95%

 

It will be hard for the Spartans to have another 11-win season, but if they go 9-3 like we (almost) have them game-by-game, they could slip into the Big Ten title game, then win a bowl game. However, we have them 3rd in the Legends and assume they won't be in the title game after losing road games to Michigan and Wisconsin.

Michigan State hosts Boise State in the opener and should end that team's string of beating BCS schools on the road. They visit Central Michigan but four of the first five are at home (and all five in-state). The hardest opponent will be Notre Dame who—like people say every year—could be really good. The difference is that this year not everyone is expecting the Irish to be good so it will probably happen. Ohio State will be tough too, but at home MSU has the edge.

Indiana and Iowa shouldn't be too tough to beat, but then come the back-to-back road games against the Big Ten's finest, after which they host Nebraska in a tossup contest. The Spartans should close with two easy wins.

The cumulative projection comes out to 8-4 but and game by game it works out the same. The #5 Big Ten team (#3 after weeding out Ohio State and a second BCS team) will go to the Outback bowl and probably face South Carolina. Same venue different SEC team.

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