It's the end of the regular season for college football, the games have all been played, and it's time for the BCS—tolerate it or hate it—to match up the #1 and #2 teams in the country to play for the national championship.
LSU, the #1 team, will be playing. And no one really has an idea who their opponent will be.
All right, we can easily narrow it down: It's either Alabama or Oklahoma State. But judging by the new USA/Coaches poll, where Oklahoma State is just an inch behind the Tide, it could be either team at #2 when the results are announced.
The computers are easier to predict, if only because there are just six of them. Last week four had Alabama #2. This week it's expected that four will have Oklahoma State #2. We already know Jeff Sagarin's ELO ratings have kept Alabama at #2.
So what it comes down to: if Oklahoma State is #2 in the Harris Interactive poll—or gets within a handful of votes of #2—they will be ahead of Alabama in the final BCS standings. Which will it be? Maybe human nature can give us the answer.
Predicting where the Harris votes will put Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State jumped from #5 to #3 in the USA Today/Coaches poll, with many voters putting them at #2. Those who didn't put them #2 generally put them #3. It's this type of voter who may give Alabama the edge.
Let's look at your average, apathetic voter: In the USA poll, Virginia Tech was #3, and Stanford #4. It's very easy to jump Oklahoma State into the #3 spot in that scenario—you aren't downgrading Stanford at all; they hold at #4. Since Virginia Tech lost, they logically fall a lot, and the Cowboys move into their spot.
In the Harris Poll, however, Stanford was #3. Some voters will move Oklahoma State from #5 to #2 because they want to see them in the national championship game, just like many USA/Coaches voters did. But of those who don't put them #2, many will leave them at #4. The typical, move-teams-up-or-down-a-slot voter won't want to move Stanford down a spot for no reason. Either they put Oklahoma State at #2, or they put them at #4. This might only happen a handful of times, but that's probably all it will take to keep the Cowboys at #3 in the BCS.
Here's how we see things shaping up:
Projected BCS Top 20 for December 4, 2011 (USA poll actual; Computer composite and Harris projected)
lw BCS Team lwComp Comp USA Harris
1 1 LSU 1 1 1 1
2 2t Alabama 2 3 2 2
3 3t Oklahoma State 3 2 3 3
4 4 Stanford 4 4 4 4
9 5 Oregon 10t 9 5 5
7 6t Boise State 9 8 6 6
8 7t Arkansas 6t 6 7 7
11 8 Kansas State 6t 5 10 10
12 9 South Carolina 12 10 9 9
15 10 Wisconsin 19 13 8 8
5 11 Virginia Tech 10t 15 11 11
16 12 Michigan 15 14 12 12
17 13 Baylor 13 11 16 16
20 14 Clemson 21 17 14 13
10 15 Oklahoma 5 7 19 19
13 16 Michigan State 16 19 13 14
18 17t TCU 18 18 15 15
14 18t Georgia 14 12 18 18
6 19 Houston 8 23 17 17
19 20 Nebraska 20 20 20 20
- LSU will be at #1 with a 1.000 score again, followed by Alabama and Oklahoma State who are neck-and-neck. We think Alabama holds on by a nose, but we'll look at the BCS Bowls with both possibilities. If Alabama is #3, they fall to the Sugar Bowl, while Oklahoma State jumps from the Fiesta to the BCS championship game.
- Stanford is a solid #4 and therefore has an automatic berth to a BCS bowl via a convoluted rule.
- Oregon could pass one or both of Arkansas and Boise State, while Arkansas also could pass Boise. Spots 5 through 7 are in any order, and the order doesn't matter: Oregon is going to the Rose, Arkansas is not in the BCS mix, and Boise State is alive for an at-large but probably out of luck.
- Kansas State is a solid #8 and could be in play for a couple of BCS bowls.
- South Carolina and Wisconsin should be #9 and #10 in either order. The Gamecocks are shut out of the picture while Wisconsin will face Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
- Virginia Tech will fall to either #11 or #12, with Michigan taking the other spot. This means the Wolverines are clearly in the top 14 needed for an at-large bid, and will be in the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl. Virginia Tech is a longshot to be picked at-large, probably behind even Boise State.
- From #13 to #18, everything is tight. But it's looking bad for TCU to try to get in the top 16. We have them at #17 and that's assuming they are ahead of Georgia, which is not certain. We're now assuming the Horned Frogs won't be in a BCS bowl as an automatic qualifier. Of the rest, Georgia can't be in a BCS bowl even if they're in the top 14; we assume K-State is picked before Baylor or Oklahoma; Michigan State is probably not in the top 14; and Clemson is already in the Orange Bowl.
So here are our bowl lineups:
A) assuming Alabama is #2 in the BCS
| BCS Championship Game: | LSU vs. Alabama |
| Rose Bowl: | Wisconsin vs. Oregon |
| Fiesta Bowl: | Oklahoma State vs. Stanford |
| Sugar Bowl: | Michigan vs. Kansas State |
| Orange Bowl: | Clemson vs. West Virginia |
After LSU and Alabama are matched, with Oklahoma State in the Fiesta and Clemson in the Orange, the Sugar will pick Michigan as their replacement for LSU. Then the Fiesta picks and will take Stanford to play the Cowboys. The Sugar has the next pick and they must choose between West Virginia, Boise State, Kansas State, and Virginia Tech. Any of the first three could be in play. If it's Boise or K-State, then West Virginia will play in the Orange. If it's West Virginia against Michigan, K-State will probably play in the Orange, which is an even longer haul for Boise.
Most analysts would guess that Kansas State, a midwestern team closer to New Orleans than Boise State would get the nod. They're also much higher in the standings than West Virginia. Michigan fans should already be filling the stadium, so making a good game for TV might be a bigger concern. There's no real draw to playing West Virginia now that RichRod is gone, so look for K-State or possibly Boise State against the Wolverines, leaving the familiar ACC-Big East matchup in the Orange.
B) assuming Oklahoma State takes the #2 spot
| BCS Championship Game: | LSU vs. Oklahoma State |
| Rose Bowl: | Wisconsin vs. Oregon |
| Fiesta Bowl: | Michigan vs. Kansas State |
| Sugar Bowl: | Alabama vs. Stanford |
| Orange Bowl: | Clemson vs. West Virginia |
In this scenario Alabama goes to the Sugar Bowl automatically, and the Fiesta Bowl gets the next two picks: one to replace Oklahoma State, and then they pick first among the three remaining bowls for their second team. This gives them a chance to satisfy everyone by a) picking Michigan, the most desirable team moneywise; and b) taking another Big 12 team to replace Oklahoma State. They'll probably match Michigan with Kansas State, meaning that between the two scenarios the Wildcats are in pretty good shape.
We assume that Baylor won't be picked ahead of Kansas State since they have three losses and will be farther down in the rankings. Since the pick is for the next in line in the Big 12, Kansas State will probably get the nod, no matter how attractive a Denard Robinson vs. Robert Griffin III showdown would be.
That leaves two more automatic picks, Stanford and West Virginia. Alabama vs. Stanford would make a great TV game, and the Tide will already have the seats filled at the Sugar Bowl so no worries there. Once again, the ACC and Big East teams match up in the Orange.
We ended up with the same 10 teams, rearranged, based on either possibility. But as everyone found out yesterday, nothing is written in stone. There are too many places—from the games, to the voters, to the computers, to the bowl committees who ultimately choose—for things to depart from the foreseen path.
After a season-full of BCS standings predictions culminating in a final weekend with too many variables to reasonably keep track of, we will be quite glad, actually, when the standings come out at 8:15 tonight and put an end to all the speculation. The end result of all this, no matter what the outcome, will be a another push in the slow but steady march toward a college football playoff.
you got it right. BCS Guru was wrong when he said Oklahoma State was in. The voters did their job and put the #2 team at #2.
Posted by: ROLL TIDE | December 04, 2011 at 08:52 PM