2011 Heisman Trophy finalist Montee Ball is on the verge of breaking 1988 Heisman Trophy winner Barry Sanders' record for touchdowns scored during a season. This has people both excited about Ball and indignant that Sanders' 11-game season puts him at such a disadvantage to Ball's 13-game count. But the real "crime" in most people's eyes is that Sanders' bowl game doesn't count toward his total, while Ball's game against Oregon will.
In 2002, the NCAA ruled that bowl game statistics will count in the record books when considering all-time statistics, but only from the 2002 season onward. This almost affected Sanders once before, when his record 2,628 yard total was in jeopardy to Central Florida's Kevin Smith. As it turned out, Smith did not gain enough yards in his bowl game to pass Sanders, even without Sanders' bowl game totals added in.
Now Montee Ball is the latest challenger to a Sanders record. With 38 total touchdowns, Ball needs one to tie Sanders' record of 39, and 2 to surpass it. He hasn't had fewer than 2 in any game all season.
It's clear that Sanders' season was far more amazing than Ball's if you look at rushing yards. But who had the more impressive year, scoring-wise? Let's take a look at Ball's 2011 season, and Sanders' 1988 season, correcting for the level of their opposition and the year of play.
First, Montee Ball, Wisconsin 2011:
| Opponent | Rush | Rec | Tot | Def rank | Def ave | Adj TDs |
| UNLV | 3 | 1 | 4 | 113 | 39.04 | 2.8 |
| Oregon St. | 2 | 0 | 2 | 42 | 23.23 | 2.3 |
| Northern Ill. | 2 | 0 | 2 | 94 | 32.29 | 1.7 |
| South Dakota | 2 | 0 | 2 | 104* | 34.33 | 1.6 |
| Nebraska | 4 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 21.14 | 5.2 |
| Indiana | 3 | 0 | 3** | 112 | 38.84 | 2.1 |
| Michigan St. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 15.48 | 3.5 |
| Ohio St. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 19.07 | 2.9 |
| Purdue | 3 | 0 | 3 | 72 | 28.41 | 2.9 |
| Minnesota | 2 | 1 | 3 | 68 | 27.8 | 2.9 |
| Illinois | 2 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 18.83 | 4.3 |
| Penn St. | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13.26 | 8.2 |
| Michigan St. | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 15.48 | 7.0 |
|
Total
|
32 | 6 | 38 | (120 teams) | (2011 = 27.28) | 47.5 |
|
Average
|
2.92 | 53.4 | 22.53 | 3.66 |
Ball has played 13 games and scored 38 touchdowns, nearly 3 per game on average. 32 TDs began on the ground and 6 were from TD catches.
Wisconsin faced defenses that were only slightly above average on the whole; out of 120 teams, the average Badger opponent defense ranked about 53rd out of 120 teams (defensive ratings are adjusted for competition). There was, of course, a wide disparity in these teams: Three (UNLV, Indiana, and FCS South Dakota) rank below #100. [* We fit South Dakota into the FBS figures using our All-Division power rating.] Wisconsin also faced Penn State (the #3 defense) and #4 Michigan State twice.
The Defensive Average column shows how many points that team would normally give up against an average FBS team. The final column adjusts the number of touchdowns Ball scored based on the quality of the defense faced. In some cases this meant reducing the number, in others increasing it, until it corresponds to the number of touchdowns expected against an average team. For example, his 4 TDs against UNLV (the #115 defense) would convert to only 2.8 against an average team.
Overall, due to his solid games against some of the better teams, Ball's 38 touchdowns translate into 47.5 TDs after correction. Instead of 2.92 per game, Ball would score 3.66 against a standardized schedule.
Note that Ball had a touchdown pass against Indiana that doesn't count toward his total. This is the one area where Ball fans can claim he's getting the shaft! Adding that in, his adjusted totals increase to 48.2 touchdowns and 3.71 per game.
Now Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State 1988:
| Opponent | Rush | Ret | Tot | Def rank | Def ave | Adj TDs |
|
Miami OH
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
102
|
39.75
|
2.1 |
|
Texas A&M
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
23
|
15.97
|
5.1 |
|
Tulsa
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
66
|
25.55
|
5.3 |
|
Colorado
|
4
|
0
|
4
|
17
|
14.16
|
7.7 |
|
Nebraska
|
4
|
0
|
4
|
19
|
14.61
|
7.5 |
|
Missouri
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
63
|
24.81
|
2.2 |
|
Kansas St
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
100
|
38.36
|
2.1 |
|
Oklahoma
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
4
|
8.81
|
6.2 |
|
Kansas
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
105
|
44.43
|
3.1 |
|
Iowa State
|
4
|
0
|
4
|
48
|
21.27
|
5.1 |
|
Texas Tech
|
4
|
0
|
4
|
68
|
25.65
|
4.3 |
|
Total
|
37
|
2
|
39
|
(105 teams)
|
(1988 = 23.66)
|
50.7 |
|
Average
|
3.55
|
55.9
|
24.85
|
4.6
|
||
|
Wyoming
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
38
|
19.45
|
7.0
|
|
Total
|
42
|
2
|
44
|
57.7
|
||
|
Average
|
3.67
|
54.4
|
24.40
|
4.81
|
Barry Sanders scored 39 touchdowns in the regular season, 37 from scrimmage on running plays and 2 more on kick returns. Sanders' raw totals are higher than Ball's, of course; he's still ahead by one touchdown, 39 to 38, and his average of 3.55 in the regular season is better than Ball's 2.92.
Sanders' opponents' average defensive rank was 54.4 out of 105 teams, meaning they were below average. Again, there was a big spread: three defenses were among the very worst (Miami Ohio, Kansas State, and Kansas—dead last at #105). The Cowboys also faced four defenses in the top 25, including #4 Oklahoma. Sanders' solid performance against the better teams, however, makes his adjusted total go up instead of down, from 39 to around 44 touchdowns. That's 3.5 below Ball's adjusted total.
Also, offenses averaged only 23.66 points per game in 1988, substantially lower than 2011's average of 27.28. Basically, it is easier to score touchdowns in 2011 than it was in 1988. This is brought into relief by comparing Oklahoma, 1988's #4 defense, which gave up an adjusted 8.8 points per game, to 2011's #4 Penn State, who yielded 13.3. When we correct for this "inflation" Sanders' touchdown total looks even better, finishing at 50.7, 3.2 above Ball's adjusted regular season total.
Sanders also scored five times against Wyoming in the Holiday Bowl; factoring that in, Sanders has 44 actual touchdowns and a mind-blowing 57.7 adjusted for opposition and year of play. That's around 4.8 touchdowns per game against an average 2011 FBS team.
The Bottom Line: Ball vs. Sanders
So how many touchdowns does Montee Ball need against Oregon to have a greater touchdown-scoring season than Barry Sanders?
Using unadjusted (actual) figures:
- By NCAA rules: Ball needs 2 touchdowns
- Counting bowl games for both: Ball needs 7 touchdowns
- Counting Ball's passing TD: Ball needs 6 touchdowns
- To pass Sanders in rushing TDs only (not total TDs), Ball needs 6 rushing TDs for the official NCAA record, and 11 for the "true" full-season record
Ranking by touchdowns per game:
- Ball needs 14 touchdowns to beat Sanders' 3.67 average. (13 if you count Ball's pass)
Using adjusted figures that account for opponents' defenses and year of play:
- Ball needs 3 TDs against Oregon to surpass Sanders' regular-season "total" of 50.7
- Ball needs 8 TDs against Oregon to surpass Sanders' full-season "total" of 57.7
- Ball needs 15 TDs against Oregon to surpass Sanders' adjusted average of 4.8 TDs per game
So counting Ball's bowl game and not Barry's, Ball needs 2 touchdowns to have the most ever, and 3 to claim the most ever adjusting for schedule and year of play. Counting all games by each player, Ball needs 7 to pass Barry, and 8 if you adjust for schedule and season. Possible, but very unlikely.
But to beat Sanders' per-game average, Ball needs a whopping 14 touchdowns against Oregon, and has to add a 15th to prove he's really the best all-time scorer. Needless to say, that is not going to happen.
For the last bit here, I'll rank each player's games in terms of how impressive they were scoring-wise. Montee's 4 TD game against Penn State is the most impressive, worth over 8 TDs against an average team. Then Barry's games against Colorado and Nebraska are next in line as both those teams gave up fewer points than 2011's Michigan State. Ball's Big Ten championship game against the Spartans is #4. Then come Sanders' 5 TD performances against Wyoming and Tulsa, as well as his 2-TD effort against Oklahoma, a team that yielded fewer than 9 points to the average team.
Player Opponent TDs Def# AdjTDs
Montee Ball Penn St. 4 3 8.2
Barry Sanders Colorado 4 17 7.7
Barry Sanders Nebraska 4 19 7.5
Montee Ball Michigan St. 4 4 7.1
Barry Sanders Wyoming 5 38 7.0
Barry Sanders Oklahoma 2 4 6.2
Barry Sanders Tulsa 5 66 5.3
Montee Ball Nebraska 4 35 5.2
Barry Sanders Iowa State 4 48 5.1
Barry Sanders Texas A&M 3 23 5.1
Montee Ball Illinois 3 20 4.3
Barry Sanders Texas Tech 4 68 4.3
Montee Ball Michigan St. 2 4 3.5
Barry Sanders Kansas 5 105 3.1
Montee Ball Minnesota 3 68 2.9
Montee Ball Purdue 3 72 2.9
Montee Ball Ohio St. 2 23 2.9
Montee Ball Indiana 4 112 2.8 *counting TD pass
Montee Ball UNLV 4 113 2.8
Montee Ball Oregon St. 2 42 2.3
Barry Sanders Missouri 2 63 2.2
Barry Sanders Kansas St 3 100 2.1
Montee Ball Indiana 3 112 2.1 * not counting TD pass
Barry Sanders Miami OH 3 102 2.1
Montee Ball Northern Ill. 2 94 1.7
Montee Ball South Dakota 2 104 1.6
There are other considerations one might bring up, such as, who had more help from the passing game to take pressure off the run? Who had a better offensive line? Who ran the ball the most late in the game and got more carries overall? And who got the ball near the goal line more often (and who helped get them there the most)? But whoever ends up first in the record book, both men had great seasons and scored a lot of points. That's the bottom line.
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