SportsRatings: College Football

2012 Rose Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Monday, January 2: Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA at 5:00 pm eastern

#9 Oregon Ducks (11-2) vs. #7 Wisconsin Badgers (11-2)

Two high-powered offenses led by mobile quarterbacks and star running backs take the field in Pasadena.

Vegas line/spread: Oregon by 5 (over/under 72)

Early on Oregon was a somewhat surprisingly high 6-point favorite to win the Rose Bowl in a high-scoring affair. That declined to 5 points by game day.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Oregon	50.4%	38%
Wisconsin	49.6%	62%

In our game-comparison system, we separate offensive and defensive performances for each game, then re-combine them to get tens of thousands of permutations; of these, Oregon wins a very slight majority. If we use game performances only—without splitting offense and defense—there are 13x13 or 169 comparisons, and Wisconsin actually wins a slim majority. Against the initial 6-point spread, Wisconsin is the clear favorite of this method.

Oregon outranks Wisconsin in our Strength Power Rating but it's close, with Oregon #4 and Wisconsin #6.

Strength Power Rating:   Oregon 40, Wisconsin 39    Tempo-free:   Wisconsin 41, Oregon 36

Oregon's slim advantage comes from their offense, where they are the #2 team in adjusted scoring. Wisconsin is no slouch at #5. Even though Wisconsin is 12 slots better on defense—#18 to #30—the difference in points yielded isn't as great as it is on offense, so Oregon gets a narrow expected win.

When "tempo" or number of drives per game is corrected for, Wisconsin becomes the favorite by a fairly big margin. The Badgers play a slow-tempo game (average 24 drives) while Oregon plays fast (29 drives). This closes the gap between the offenses greatly on a per-drive basis. The Rose Bowl should, overall, be played at an average tempo, so Oregon loses some of their offensive average in theory. Wisconsin can win by controlling the tempo on offense, giving their defense time to rest.

Yardage analysis:   Oregon 38, Wisconsin 34     per attempt:   Oregon 42, Wisconsin 38

The total yardage rankings are very similar to the Strength ratings, with Oregon #3 and Wisconsin #6. Oregon has the #4 offense in adjusted total yardage and the #26 defense, and Wisconsin has the #10 offense and #16 defense. Both teams should have well over 400 yards on offense with Oregon having a 30+ yard advantage and a 4 point win if yards convert to points as expected. The per-attempt estimate doesn't change things very much but the projected score is higher.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Oregon 39, Wisconsin 34

Aside from plays from scrimmage, Oregon earns a bit of an extra edge on kick returns. Neither team has enough of an advantage on projected turnovers to make a difference. But Oregon's kick return team has four touchdowns—two on punts and two on kickoffs. De'Anthony Thomas has both the kickoff return TDs and a 27 yard average while LaMichael James had one on a punt. Wisconsin is #5 on punt returns due to Jared Abbrederis' 16-yard average, but Oregon's coverage is good and overall they gain a point in the estimate.

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon rushing offense: #4

Wisconsin rushing defense: #36

LaMichael James is where the Oregon running game starts but not where it ends. James' 1,646 yards and 17 touchdowns had him in the Heisman hunt but his injuries and two missed games kept him off the elite list this year. In his absence Kenjon Barner shined and had 909 yards and 11 TDs himself. Four other players reached 200 yards including QB Darron Thomas. In short, lots of production from this unit.

Bigger teams with great rush defenses were able to bottle up James and the Duck ground game, holding them to less than 100 yards: Auburn last year, LSU this year. Those were both top ten rush defenses and Wisconsin's is not elite, ranking 50th on a per-carry basis; Oregon should have around 275 rushing yards.

Oregon passing offense: #54	Wisconsin passing defense: #13   per att: #33
Oregon interceptions thrown ranking: #13	Wisconsin interceptions picked ranking: #34
Oregon quarterback protection rank: #4	Wisconsin pass rush rank: #100

Darron Thomas gets the job done as Oregon's quarterback, with 2,493 yards and 30 touchdowns. All-purpose star De'Anthony Thomas is the leading receiver with 571 yards and nine other players have 100 or more yards. Wisconsin's passing defense is solid and Thomas should have around 200 yards through the air.

He could manage higher yardage if Oregon needs to throw more late in the game. He doesn't throw interceptions (only 6 this year) so Wisconsin probably won't have more than one pick in the game. And pressure shouldn't be a big problem, as Wisconsin ranks #100 in adjusted sacks and Thomas has only been sacked nine times; it wouldn't be a surprise if the Badgers didn't get a sack the entire game.

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin rushing offense: #11

Oregon rushing defense: #47

Wisconsin's running game is nearly as strong as Oregon's, and Montee Ball tops Oregon's James in both yards (1,759) and in touchdowns, with an amazing 32 (with his 6 TD catches, Ball is on the verge of surpassing Barry Sanders' record 39 from 1989). James White has 683 yards and QB Russell Wilson netted 320. Oregon's rushing defense is a notch below Wisconsin's on a per-game basis but better on a per-play basis at #20. The Badgers should have nearly 220 yards on the ground, depending on their run/pass mix.

Wisconsin passing offense: #45	Oregon passing defense: #22   per att: #4
Wisconsin interceptions thrown ranking: #4	Oregon interceptions picked ranking: #23
Wisconsin quarterback protection rank: #53	Oregon pass rush rank: #2

Like Thomas, Russell Wilson's job is to supplement the running game with efficient passing while providing and additional running threat. He's done it quite well, too, completing 73% of his passes for 2,879 yards and 31 touchdowns, with a miniscule 3 interceptions. Nick Toon and Jared Abbrederis both have over 800 yards this season with 16 combined TDs, and Jacob Pedersen and Montee Ball have another 14 scores. Oregon has a solid pass defense, particularly on a per-play basis. Wisconsin's yardage through the air should be about the same as their ground gain, a bit shy of 220 yards.

Due to Wilson's accuracy and care, it's hard to get interceptions on him this year after he threw 14 last season. Oregon's defense picks off a lot of passes (16 this year from 11 different players) and they might get one pick off Wilson, but they're unlikely to get more than that. The place they do have a big advantage is on the pass rush, where the Ducks rank #2 in the nation in sacks adjusted for their opposition. Kenny Rowe leads the team with 7, and Wilson has been sacked 20 times this year. Oregon should have at least 3 during the game and that could disrupt Wilson's flow.

 

Oregon's season (11-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. @ #1 LSU  27-40
   
2. Nevada  69-20
3. Missouri St  56-7
4. @ Arizona  56-31
5. California  43-15
6. Arizona St  41-27
7. @ Colorado  45-2
8. Washington St  43-28
9. @ Washington  34-17  
10. @ #5 Stanford  53-30
11. #8 Southern Cal  35-38
12. Oregon St  49-21
13. UCLA  49-31

Oregon's 2010 season ended in disappointment with a loss to Auburn. Their 2011 season began with a loss to LSU. Both games found Oregon unable to execute their ground game, getting held to 75 yards against Auburn and 95 against LSU.

The Ducks rebounded with monstrous output and at least 40 points against their next six opponents. They had just 34 against Washington but 53 on Stanford, handing the Cardinal their only loss. They lost at home to USC however, missing a last-second field goal that would have tied it. Still, the Ducks won the North division of the Pac-12 and beat UCLA for the Rose Bowl berth, and that's where they'd be even if they'd defeated the Trojans. Now if they'd defeated the Tigers, too, then things would be different.

Wisconsin's season (11-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. UNLV  51-17
2. Oregon St  35-0
3. = Northern Illinois  49-7
4. South Dakota  59-10  
5. #16 Nebraska  48-17
6. Indiana  59-7
7. @ #17 Michigan St  31-37
8. @ Ohio State  29-33
9. Purdue  62-17
10. @ Minnesota  42-13
11. @ Illinois  28-17 
12. #23 Penn State  45-7  
13. = #17 Michigan St  42-39

Wisconsin's schedule was criticized when they were 4-0 for being slight, and there was some truth to that—it included two losing teams and an FCS team. But they also beat 10-3 Northern Illinois 49-7, and after they'd demolished Nebraska the Badgers had proven themselves.

But the real problem with their schedule was that they hadn't played on the road yet, and when they did Michigan State was ready for them. The Spartans fought back unlike their previous foes and Kirk Cousins' hail mary prayer was answered for a deflection touchdown. Perhaps the victim of letdown, the Badgers also lost to Ohio State on a late touchdown toss.

Wisconsin bounced back to clean the rest of their Big Ten slate, including a dominant win over Penn State. They got their rematch with Michigan State and this time luck was on their side. After last year's narrow loss to TCU, they get another shot at a Rose Bowl win.

Key Injuries

A handful of Oregon players are "probable" for the game including WR/RB return man De'Anthony Thomas. Wisconsin center Pete Konz has been out for three games but should return for the bowl game.

Psychology/Motivation

• Oregon's season: -2 wins;  Wisconsin's season: -1 win
• Oregon's momentum: +0 wins; Wisconsin's momentum: -2 wins
• Oregon won final game: YES; Wisconsin won final game: YES
• Oregon glad to be there? YES; Wisconsin glad to be there: YES
• Oregon coaching situation: stable; Wisconsin coaching situation: stable

Despite reaching the Rose Bowl, both teams were down a notch in wins from last season when Oregon was a perfect 12-0 and Wisconsin 11-1 at this point. Both teams had national title aspirations; Oregon's took a hit right away with the loss to LSU in the opener, while Wisconsin was 6-0 before back-to-back losses killed their hopes mid-season. The Ducks lost their chance with the loss to USC, but they would not have gotten the nod over Alabama, who lost to LSU in overtime, and Oklahoma State, who didn't play the Tigers yet.

Both teams won their conference's inaugural title game; Wisconsin's win was huge while Oregon's was a foregone conclusion. But they're both going to be equally fired up to be in the Rose Bowl, as both teams suffered close losses in their bowl games last year.

Final Analysis

This is Oregon's third BCS bowl in a row, and the Ducks are the only team that can make that claim. But they haven't played their best the last two years as they faced big defensive lines that held them to far below their scoring average. Is Wisconsin's D the kind that can do what Ohio State, Auburn, and LSU did?

And Wisconsin's offensive line is giant: 322 pounds on average. Last year they busted through TCU's defensive line easily in the early going before the Horned Frogs adjusted. Can Oregon's defense cope with them?

It looks like another battle of size vs. speed, though it isn't that simple as that. LaMichael James may be small and fast, but Oregon has plenty of big players, while Wisconsin has speed, too.

In the end I think Oregon is better in shootout games than Wisconsin, who seemed flustered against Michigan State and Ohio State when those teams dared to keep it close. Oregon's losses were to LSU who was just plain better and had a great defense, and USC who is better than MSU or OSU this year. They also beat Stanford, who is better than the teams the Badgers defeated this year.

I'm a little surprised by the fairly wide spread the oddsmakers have given Oregon though. Wisconsin stuck close in both their losses and while 6 points isn't a drubbing, it suggests the oddsmakers feel that Oregon has a very high percentage chance to win the game, about 2/3. True, they beat Stanford by 23 points, and Wisconsin is as good as the Cardinal at best. But in my mind this game is either a narrow win for Wisconsin or a narrow-to-moderate win for Oregon, and a three-point win for the Ducks on average.

Prediction:  Oregon 39, Wisconsin 36

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Armed Forces, Pinstripe, Music City, Insight Bowl Results: BYU, Rutgers, Mississippi State, Oklahoma win

Even though we're in late December, the bowl games aren't getting a whole lot more interesting very fast. Not only were most of these matchups duds on paper, they ended up that way in reality, too. So much so that none really deserves their own entry so we lumped all the December 30th bowls together.

Armed Forces Bowl: BYU 24, Tulsa 21

This was the one game on Friday that promised to be a pretty good viewing, and though it had less scoring than we expected it was at least a back-and-forth affair. BYU scored a last-minute touchdown on a "faked spike" play to beat Tulsa, 24-21.

Tulsa took a 14-3 lead in the 2nd quarter on G.J. Kinne's second touchdown pass, but Tulsa fumbled on a punt return setting up a 17-yard touchdown pass from Riley Nelson to Cody Hoffman; Tulsa's halftime lead was narrowed to 14-10.

Nelson hooked up with Hoffman again in the 3rd quarter for 30 yards to take the lead, but Tulsa took it back on Kinne's 3rd touchdown strike, this one for 30 yards to Bryan Burnham.

With the Golden Hurricane up 21-17, the Cougars drove into Tulsa territory and with about 15 seconds left BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall called for a spike to stop the clock. Nelson, however, called for a fake spike and instead threw another touchdown pass to Hoffman, giving BYU the win.

BYU finished the season 10-3 with losses to Texas, Utah, and TCU; though they have a dearth of quality wins the Cougars should make the final SportsRatings Top 25. Tulsa fell to 8-5.

Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers 27, Iowa State 13

Rutgers slowly but surely took control of the Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium, holding Iowa State to field goals early and holding off a late Cyclone surge to win 27-13.

Iowa State was in charge of the first quarter but had just six points on two field goals to show for it. Rutgers then dominated the second quarter, scoring on two Jawan Jamison TD runs and a San San Te field goal to lead 17-6 at the half.

Neither team scored in the third quarter but after another Te field goal, Iowa State's stalled offense got going in the fourth quarter and they cut the lead to 20-13 on a 20-yard Jeff Woody run. But Rutgers drove the stake in with an 86-yard touchdown pass from Chas Dodd to Brandon Coleman, putting the game out of reach.

Rutgers improved to 9-4 while Iowa State dropped to 6-7. The Scarlet Knights résumé is a bit weak for top 25 consideration but they did beat Cincinnati and lost only to bowl teams this year.

Music City Bowl: Mississippi State 23, Wake Forest 17

Mississippi capped a disappointing season with a workmanlike win over Wake Forest in the Music City Bowl.

After Wake scored first on a 14-yard Brandon Pendergrass run, the Bulldogs' Vic Ballard responded with a 60-yard rumble to tie the score. On the 2nd quarter Mississippi State scored on a 31-yard Chris Relf pass to Arceto Clark; Derek DePasquale missed the PAT but extended the lead to 16-7 at the half on a field goal.

The Demon Deacons chipped that down to 16-14 with a touchdown on the opening 3rd quarter drive, but neither team could get going offensively for the rest of the quarter. In the fourth, Ballard struck again on a 72-yard touchdown run to make it 23-14. Wake Forest managed just a field goal in their comeback attempt.

Mississippi State's Ballard finished with 180 yards, 132 of them on the two touchdown carries. The Bulldogs ended up 7-6 and the Demon Deacons fell to 6-7.

Insight Bowl: Oklahoma 31, Iowa 14

There wasn't much insight to be gained from this sloppily-played bowl, where the most notable events included a 12-man 4th-down defensive stop, a falling camera, and a fluke spread-covering final touchdown.

Iowa gave Oklahoma its first touchdown via an interception deep in their own territory, leading to Blake Bell's first touchdown run. The Hawkeyes also failed to score on a 4th and one where a receiver was left completely uncovered and Oklahoma had 12 men on the field. The receiver wasn't seen by the quarterback, the 12th man wasn't seen by the officials, and Iowa was stuffed for a loss on a running play.

That series was indicative of Iowa's play most of the game. Oklahoma scored in the 2nd quarter on Bell's second TD run, another 4-yarder, and the Sooners led 14-0 at the half.

The Sooners drove into the Iowa red zone early in the 3rd quarter but Landry Jones was intercepted inside the 10 yard line. Later Jones hit Trent Ratterree for a 3-yard touchdown for a 21-0 lead. Jones had a subpar outing, with 161 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.

Iowa got things going late in the third, culminating in a touchdown early in the fourth as James Vandenberg hit C.J. Fiedorowicz on a beautifully thrown 5-yard pass that threaded the needle between two Oklahoma defenders. Later Vandenberg capped another solid drive on a 9-yard pass to Jordan Canzeri and just like that the Hawks were within a touchdown, 21-14.

But Oklahoma milked the clock on a long drive that ended with a field goal, adding some insurance for a 24-14 lead.

The game was delayed as the crew painstakingly removed the overhead camera equipment that had fallen onto the field, narrowly missing the gathered Iowa offense ready to start their final drive.

When that drive failed, the game was for all intents and purposes over, but the Sooners had to kill the clock. On 4th and 1 from Iowa's 20 with 30 second left, Bell broke free and scored a meaningless touchdown, but one that put the Sooners over the 13 1/2 point spread, which had been in no danger minutes earlier.

Both teams were missing key offensive players and suffered from a lack of motivation due to their disappointing seasons. The pre-season #1 Oklahoma Sooners finished 10-3 with losses to Texas Tech, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. Iowa ended the year 7-6.

More previews and results: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2012 Gator Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Florida vs. Ohio State

Monday, January 2: Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL at 1:00 pm eastern

Florida Gators (6-6) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6)

Was it just five years ago when these teams played for the national championship? This isn't quite the same.

Vegas line/spread: Florida by 2 (over/under 44)

Florida is favored to win a close, low-scoring game. The difference is pretty much accounted for by home field advantage. The line didn't vary a lot over the week leading up to the game.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Florida	58%	53%
Ohio State	42%	47%

Neither Florida nor Ohio State played like a top 25 team this year, but they were closer than most 6-6 teams due to their tough schedules. Florida ranks #29 and Ohio State #38 in the Strength Power Rating, so Florida's game ratings are higher than the Buckeyes' and they win the majority of comparison, with or without the spread accounted for. We also give Florida home field advantage for playing in-state, and in their namesake bowl game.

Strength Power Rating:   Florida 23, Ohio State 20    Tempo-free:   Florida 21, Ohio State 18

Florida wins the average game by just over a field goal in our power rating. The teams have a similar profile: poor offense (#50, #59) and good defense (#22, #23); that's why the game is expected to have little scoring. In addition, both teams play at a slower pace, meaning there might be 3 or 4 fewer offensive drives in the game; corrected for this, an even lower score results.

Yardage analysis:   Florida 19, Ohio State 10     per attempt:   Florida 28, Ohio State 17

Though the difference between the two teams on the scoreboard looks minimal, by yardage Florida is clearly ahead. The Gators are 36th and Ohio State just 59th in adjusted yardage differential. Both teams have even worse offenses (#73, #97) and better defenses (#12, #19) than they do when measured by points. In both teams' case, this is probably due to their strong defense setting up short yardage situations where the offense is able to score without needing to rack up a lot of yardage.

Florida is expected to outgain Ohio State from scrimmage by around 80 yards which in a low-scoring game could be a big difference, nearly 10 points. On a per-play basis the gap widens to 11 points; all of this includes home field advantage as well.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Florida 19, Ohio State 13

Modifying the yards-from-scrimmage estimate to try to take into account return yards and potential turnovers, the game becomes a big higher-scoring and Ohio State is a bit closer. The Buckeyes have the edge in turnovers but Florida gains a bit of that back on kick returns.

Florida probably won't have any interceptions in the game while Ohio State will likely have one. These numbers can change radically in a real game, but on average that's a 4-point advantage for Ohio State. Kick returns go Florida's way in terms of big return potential, but overall field position shouldn't be affected much since Ohio State has good fielding itself.

When Florida has the ball

Florida rushing offense: #48

Ohio State rushing defense: #29

Neither Chris Rainey nor Jeff Demps has really lived up to expectations this year as a running back, but Rainey is both leading rusher (790 yards) and #2 receiver. Speedster Demps had 539 yards this year and 6 touchdowns. Overall Florida's running game always has potential, but in the end isn't that potent. The Buckeye defense isn't close to it's normal top 10 rushing ranking, but should keep Florida under 150 yards.

Florida passing offense: #77	Ohio State passing defense: #23   per att: #30
Florida interceptions thrown ranking: #65	Ohio State interceptions picked ranking: #39
Florida quarterback protection rank: #74	Ohio State pass rush rank: #50

Quarterback John Brantley is another Gator that hasn't lived up to the hype. Replacing Tim Tebow, he was supposed to be a great pure passer, and his backup work had shown he could be. But he was a bad fit for Urban Meyer's system, and he didn't really thrive under Charlie Weis, either. After an ankle injury in the Alabama game, he missed the next two games and played terribly against Georgia. He improved but had to leave against FSU, too. For the season he had 1,912 yards while his freshmen backups combined for 354 on 47% passing. Ohio State's pass defense is not great by their own standards but should be enough to slow down Brantley and co. to the tune of around 180 yards.

As mediocre as Brantley was this year, Florida needs him in order to have any control over the game. Ohio State will probably have just one interception unless Jacoby Brissett has to play—he had 4 picked off in 39 attempts this year. The Buckeyes' pass rush isn't deadly and they'll have about 2 sacks assuming Brantley plays most of the game; again, his backups were sacked more often (10 times vs. 78 passing attempts).

When Ohio State has the ball

Ohio State rushing offense: #23

Florida rushing defense: #22

Braxton Miller, who took over as Ohio State's quarterback, also became their leading rusher with 695 yards and 7 touchdowns. Dan "Boom" Herron, out for a five-game suspension which later became six, had 593 in just half a season, nearly a 100 yards per game average. Carlos Hyde added 549, and Jordan Hall 384 while they played in Herron's absence. Overall the team was good at running the ball and is better with Herron's return. Florida's rushing defense is their equal, however, so they might not have much more than 150 yards once sacks are subtracted.

Ohio State passing offense: #112	Florida passing defense: #14   per att: #30
Ohio State interceptions thrown ranking: #9	Florida interceptions picked ranking: #112
Ohio State quarterback protection rank: #117	Florida pass rush rank: #88

It's been a while since a major college football program has had such low passing production, other than by design (such as running a triple option). Originally Joe Bauserman was supposed to manage the team, but after he went 2-of-14 against Miami it was clear they had to go with Braxton Miller, even though he was a freshman and really couldn't throw any better. They had another running quarterback a year after Terrelle Pryor. Miller had 997 passing yards, Bauserman 492. Only Miller reached 50%, exactly, in completion percentage. No receiver topped 250 yards. Florida's pass defense is good but it almost wasted against the Buckeyes, who shouldn't reach 100 yards through the air.

And if they get behind and have to throw, it could be ugly. Interceptions won't be an issue since they rarely threw the ball and Miller only had 4 picks, while Florida as a team has just 8 takeaways; I don't expect any picks from them during the game. The ugliness referred to is in sacks. Again, Florida's pass D doesn't rush very well, but Miller has been sacked 33 times, almost once for every four attempts (i.e., once in every five drop-backs). If they pass their normal amount Florida should have 3 sacks, with more or less depending on Miller's activity.

 

Florida's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

1. Florida Atlantic  41-3
2. UAB  39-0
3. Tennessee  33-23
4. @ Kentucky  48-10
5. #2 Alabama  10-38
6. @ #1 LSU  11-41
7. @ Auburn  6-17
8. = #22 Georgia  20-24
9. Vanderbilt  26-21
10. @ #10 South Carolina  12-17
11. Furman  54-32
12. Florida St  7-21

The myth is that Florida was rolling along on offense until the Alabama game disrupted their team and led to a long losing streak.

The reality is that the offense played really well only against Tennessee and Kentucky; FAU and UAB were terrible defensively, so scoring 80 on them combined is about the same as scoring 21 on LSU and Alabama combined. It was the Gators' schedule that did them in, as they faced six bowl teams in a row (4 of them Top 25 teams) and lost 5 of the 6.

In fact, the offense recovered somewhat with Brantley's return and fell again when he left against FSU. But the team didn't play all that much better in the first four games. That is, if they'd maintained that level they might still have finished 6-6. Only the Kentucky game stands out as significantly superior to their later performances.

As for their schedule, yes it was tough—for the games they lost. The teams they beat were not very good: the aforementioned FAU and UAB, SEC dogs Tennessee and Kentucky, FCS's Furman, and 6-6 Vanderbilt, their lone bowl-game victim.

Ohio State's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

1. Akron  42-0
2. Toledo  27-22
3. @ Miami FL  6-24
4. Colorado  37-17
5. #17 Michigan St  7-10
6. @ #16 Nebraska  27-34
7. @ Illinois  17-7
8. #7 Wisconsin  33-29
9. Indiana  34-20
10. @ Purdue  23-26 OT
    
11. #23 Penn State  14-20
12. @ #11 Michigan  34-40

At the end of last season, the plan for 2011 was: get through the early, easier games somehow without Terrelle Pryor and company, then with his return for the Nebraska game coast to a Big Ten Leaders division title and Rose Bowl berth.

Then Pryor defected, and coach Jim Tressel was fired, and worse, Joe Bauserman proved inadequate. The offense struggled against Toledo and had just 35 passing yards in the loss to Miami. After the Michigan State and Nebraska losses, and the delay of Herron and Posey's return, many wondered if the Buckeyes would even reach bowl eligibility.

The rest of the team still had talent, however, especially on defense, and they handed Illinois their first loss and then upset Wisconsin. The Indiana win made them 6-3 and bowl eligible.

But that was the last win. They were upset by Purdue in overtime, dropped a close game to Penn State, and lost to Michigan for the first time since 2003.

Key Injuries

John Brantley should be back for Florida after suffering a head injury against Florida State. On defense, Dominique Easley had ACL surgery and will not play, and Lerentee McCray is also expected to miss the game. Ohio State's injured players are all listed as "probable" for the game.

Psychology/Motivation

• Florida's season: -1 win;  Ohio State's season: -5 wins
• Florida's momentum: -2 wins; Ohio State's momentum: +0 wins
• Florida won final game: NO; Ohio State won final game: NO
• Florida glad to be there? no; Ohio State glad to be there: no
• Florida coaching situation: stable; Ohio State coaching situation: interim coach

In any other season, this might be the most important psychological indicator: Florida lost their season-ending game to rival Florida State, and the Buckeyes lost their finale to Michigan. As is it, those facts end up being somewhat of a footnote, even if they do give an idea by themselves of how these teams' seasons went.

Ohio State went through a tumultous year. Terrelle Pryor, Dan Herron, and Devier Posey were banned for five games. For Herron, that became six games; for Posey, 10 games; and for Pryor, the entire season as he left for the supplemental draft. For coach Jim Tressel, it became permanent as he was dismissed and replaced by Luke Fickell on an interim basis. Interestingly, former Florida head coach Urban Meyer was hired as his replacement, making Fickell a lame duck in his bowl debut.

Florida's season didn't reach expectations either. While they didn't have the mess the Buckeyes did, they also have no alibi for their underperformance.

Final analysis

Florida's offense was broken, but is an extra month enough to fix it with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis gone to Kansas? And can Ohio State do anything without a passing game? This looks like the anti-Alamo Bowl in the making.

For Florida, being without Charlie Weis is a double-edged sword. The Gator offense was never really that good this year so maybe a change from the ever-overrated Weis could be a godsend. But if Brantley's not 100%, the running backs continue to under-reach their potential, and there isn't time to get used to a new system, things could remain bad.

Ohio State's offense has been trending up—their poor games improving, their peak games climbing—and in the second half of the year with Herron back and Miller settled in at QB they are averaging an adjusted 10 points better than for the full season. And the finale at Michigan was the team's best offensive game of the year, with 235 passing yards and 34 points.

So despite possibly not throwing the ball for any relevant yardage—but having a chance to surprise just a bit in that category—the Buckeyes could have the more successful offense, and the slightly stingier defense.

Prediction:  Ohio State 26, Florida 21

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Champs Sports Bowl Results - Final Score: Florida State 18, Notre Dame 14

Florida State came back from 14 points down to beat Notre Dame 18-14 in the Champs Sports Bowl.

The game was the exact opposite of the Baylor-Washington Alamo Bowl, so much so that you have to pity those who watched it, decided football was boring, and skipped the later game. There was no offensive scoring in the first half.

It did, however, feature an amazing touchdown catch by Notre Dame's Michael Floyd.

Notre Dame took a 7-0 lead when FSU's Devonta Freeman fumbled after a reception. Notre Dame's Zeke Motta recovered the fumble and returned it for a 29 yard touchdown.

That was it for the first half.

Notre Dame extended their lead early in the third quarter on a 5-yard pass from Tommy Rees to Michael Floyd, who stole the ball from a defender, then played pinball with it before securing the catch (see video).

A 77-yard kickoff return helped FSU finally get on the scoreboard with a 42-yard Dustin Hopkins field goal.

With the score Notre Dame 14, FSU 3 late in the third quarter, Manuel and the 'Noles finally got things going, with the help of a patented Brian Kelly-era Notre Dame breakdown. Manuel hit Bert Reed for an 18 yard score at the beginning of the quarter, then scored again two plays after an interception put the ball at Notre Dame's 18, this time on a 15-yard strike. FSU led 15-14 after a failed two-point conversion.

Hopkins added another field goal and the defense intercepted Rees in FSU territory to secure the win.

Florida State finished the year 9-4, while Notre Dame fell to 8-5. FSU's top 25 résumé isn't terrible as two of their losses were to top 25 teams Oklahoma and Clemson, but they lack solid wins; Notre Dame is probably the best they beat in 2011.

More previews and results: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Alamo Bowl Results - Record Scoring: Baylor 67, Washington 56

The Alamo Bowl between Baylor and Washington was another game we warned would be high scoring, higher than the over/under, but we didn't know just how ridiculous it would be. We picked Baylor 56-42, and in the end Washington had 56 and still didn't beat the 9 1/2 point spread, losing to Baylor 67-56. Perhaps the most amazing thing is the Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III was only involved in two of the touchdowns and 14 total points.

We'll just let the scoring do the talking for the most part:

• Griffin struck first with an 11-yard TD pass to Kendall Wright. Baylor 7, Washington 0
• Washington QB Keith Price responded with a 5-yard TD run. Baylor 7, Washington 7
• Baylor regained the lead and extended it with a 36-yard run from Jarred Salubi and a 24-yard run by Griffin. Baylor 21, Washington 7

That was the end of the first quarter. At this point, if you had known that Griffin would not be involved in any more touchdown plays, you might think Baylor was in danger of losing their lead. And on that note, you'd be right, as Washington exploded for four straight TDs in the 2nd quarter:

• Price threw two touchdown passes, first to James Johnson for 12 yards, then nearly 7 minutes later on a 1-yarder to Devin Aguilar. Tie game! Washington 21, Baylor 21
• Price scored on a 15-yard run. Washington 28, Baylor 21
• Less than a minute later the Huskies got the ball back on downs and Chris Polk scored on a 56-yard run. Polk finished with 147 yards on the day. Washington 35, Baylor 21
• Baylor's Aaron Jones kicked a 42-yard field goal as the half ended. Halftime Score: Washington 35, Baylor 24

Jones' kick was the only field goal made that day, but both kickers made 8 of 8 extra points. Though the first half featured a combined 59 points, the second half had even more:

• Just moments into the second half, Price connected with Jermaine Kearse for an 80-yard pass play. Washington 42, Baylor 24
• Baylor's comeback began with a 6-yard run from Salubi. He had 101 yards and two touchdowns on just 5 carries. Washington 42, Baylor 31
• Then Terrance Ganaway got going, and the game really shifted into overdrive. He ran for an 89 yard touchdown, after which Griffin got the last of his 14 total points on a 2-point conversion throw to Jerod Monk. Think about that: Baylor's Art Briles was already planning for the end of the game, probably assuming the teams would trade touchdowns forever. Washington 42, Baylor 39
• And he was pretty much right: Less than a minute after Ganaway's run, Price had another touchdown pass to Aguilar for 13 yards. Washington 49, Baylor 39
• Ganaway had two more touchdowns, both 1-yard runs, before the end of the third quarter, and the second one gave Baylor its first lead since the second quarter. Baylor 53, Washington 49

The fourth quarter was almost subdued compared to the rest of the game. There were two lead changes but the ending was almost anti-climactic:

• Price's 8-yard run gave the Huskies the lead again. Washington 56, Baylor 53
• Ganaway's 4-yard score gave the Bears the lead right back. Baylor 60, Washington 56
• After Washington failed on a 4th-and-8 in Baylor territory with just over 3:00 left, the Bears took over and three plays later Ganaway sped 43 yards for his fifth touchdown and the game's final score. Baylor 67, Washington 56

Washington fumbled the ensuing kickoff, and Baylor killed the clock.

In the end, 123 points had been scored, and there were 1,397 yards of total offense (620 for Washington, 777 for Baylor). For comparison notes, our pre-game yardage projection was 1,060 total yards, 480 for Washington, 580 for Baylor. Washington roughly matched our 180 rushing yards projection, but had 438 through the air. Baylor actually came up short of our 360 passing yards prediction (with 295) but made up for that with 482 yards on the ground.

Terrance Ganaway ended up being Baylor's star with five touchdowns and 200 yards in 21 carries. Jarred Salubi as mentioned, had 2 TDs and 101 yards on 5 carries, and Tevin Reese had 101 yards on just 2 carries!

Washington's Keith Price put his name in the hat for future Heisman consideration with seven touchdowns, four through the air and three on the ground. He was 23 of 27 for the day for 438 yards and had 39 yards on the ground, complementing Polk's 147. Receiver Jermaine Kearse caught five passes for 198 yards.

Baylor notched its 10th win for a 10-3 mark this season, with big wins over #12 TCU and #21 Oklahoma and losses to #3 Oklahoma State, #13 Kansas State, and Texas A&M. Washington, still rebuilding from an 0-12 season in 2008, finished 7-6 as they did last season. Five of their six losses were to ranked teams.

More previews and results: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Military Bowl, Holiday Bowl Results: Toledo edges Air Force, Texas tops Cal

The T's had it on Wednesday night as Toledo beat Air Force in the Military Bowl and Texas defeated California in the Holiday Bowl.

Toledo 42, Air Force 41

We warned everyone this was going to be an exciting, high-scoring game, and in the end it even topped the oddsmakers' expectations by more than 10 points. The score was tied 28-28 at the half and it came down to the wire, when a faked extra-point went awry for Air Force, giving Toledo a 42-41 win in the Military Bowl.

The Rockets scored twice mid-way through the first quarter, as Terrance Owens hit Bernard Reedy for a 17 yard TD. An Air Force mistake—a fumbled kickoff—led immediately to a 41 yard touchdown run by Adonis Thomas.

The Falcons got on the board with a 22 yard Tim Jefferson touchdown run, but Toledo's Eric Page took the kickoff 87 yards to the house and Toledo led 21-7.

But Air Force struck again quickly, as a 60 yard John Warzeka run set up another touchdown, with Mike DeWitt going in from 3 yards out. After three scores within one minute, it was 21-14, Toledo at the end of just the first quarter.

Air Force got closer with a 1-yard Asher Clark run, but Toledo responded with a 48-yard pass, another Owens-Reedy touchdown hookup.

The Falcons had their own long pass play, Jefferson to Warzeka for 37 yards, to tie the game at 28 at halftime. Whew!

The second half was subdued by comparison. Toledo's Jermaine Robinson picked off Jefferson for a 37-yard touchdown return, but Air Force came back and scored to tie it again at 35.

There was no more scoring until late in the fourth quarter. Owens and Reedy connected for the third time on a touchdown pass, this one for 33 yards. Air Force had their own 33 yard touchdown pass, Jefferson to Zack Kauth and it was 42-41.

Air Force lined up for the tying kick but faked it. Toledo caught on to the fake and played it well. The ball popped out and went out the back of the end zone, leaving Toledo the winner after Eric Page secured the onsides attempt.

Toledo's sometimes-frustrating, near-breakthrough season ended on a good note at 9-4; the only team that beat them both fairly and soundly was 12-1 Boise State. Air Force had a somewhat disappointing year at 7-6.

Texas 21, California 10

Texas' defense stifled Cal's lackluster offense, while their own offense did enough to beat the Golden Bears 21-10 in the Holiday Bowl.

After Cal led 3-0 early, Texas had the play of the game in the 2nd quarter, a wide receiver pass off of a reverse for a touchdown. Jaxon Shipley threw to quarterback David Ash for a score, making it 7-3 Texas at the half.

Cal retook the lead in the second half on a 6-yard run from Isi Sofele, but Texas responded quickly with a 47-yard strike from Ash to Marquise Goodwin. The Longhorns added another score early in the 4th; they sacked quarterback Zach Maynard, who fumbled, leading to a 4-yard touchdown run by Cody Johnson.

Cal struggled to keep the ball, fumbling four times, while Maynard was sacked six times.

Texas finishes the year 8-5 after a 5-7 record a year ago. Cal dropped to 7-6 after a 5-7 mark in 2010.

More previews and results: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2012 Capital One Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: South Carolina vs. Nebraska

Monday, January 2: Capital One Bowl in Orlando, FL at 1:00 pm eastern

#10 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) vs. #16 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3)

The complementary game to the Outback Bowl, this Big Ten-SEC matchup features teams that beat Michigan State and Georgia but didn't make their conference title games.

Vegas line/spread: South Carolina by 3 (over/under 45.5)

South Carolina is a slight favorite to win a low-scoring game. The early line was closer to 2 1/2 points and settled on 3 by game day.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
South Carolina	52%	48%
Nebraska	48%	52%

South Carolina has played just a bit better than Nebraska on average, winning 52% of our game rating cross-comparisons. They rank 17th in our Strength Power Rating to Nebraska's 24th. Against the narrow spread, Nebraska becomes a very slim favorite.

Strength Power Rating:   S. Carolina 26, Nebraska 25    Tempo-free:   S. Carolina 23, Nebraska 23

Our main points-based power rating has the Gamecocks as just a 1 point favorite. Neither team is great on offense, with Nebraska 30th and South Carolina 34th. But the Gamecocks have the edge on defense, ranking 11th to Nebraska's #35.

Both teams play at a very measured tempo, so there probably won't be as many drives in this game, hence fewer scoring opportunities. Using the power rating derived from tempo-free stats, the game is an almost exact tossup, and the combined score matches the oddsmakers line. Call this a multiple-overtime win for Nebraska, as they are 1/100th of a point ahead.

Yardage analysis:   S. Carolina 21, Nebraska 15     per attempt:   S. Carolina 24, Nebraska 17

Though the teams are very even by point spreads, South Carolina leads in terms of yardage, ranking 17th to Nebraska's 33rd in adjusted yardage differential. The main difference is that Nebraska's rating has declined, their offense ranking 39th and defense 31st by yardage. South Carolina's offense has also declined, ranking just 60th, but their defense ranks #5. So the Gamecocks have a very average offensive yardage output and extremely stingy defense, but the net result is little different from their score-based ranking. All told, South Carolina should outgain Nebraska by around 50 total yards which here translates to about 6 points. On a per-attempt basis the Gamecocks are a 1-touchdown favorite.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   South Carolina 22, Nebraska 14

Modifying the yardage spread with estimates from non-scrimmage plays, we look at turnovers and kick returns. On turnovers, interceptions are the only thing that is even slightly projectable, and we have South Carolina with the advantage there, as they are more likely to reel in more than one pick, giving them an additional 2 point advantage. Both teams have a fair chance of big kick returns or advantages in field position, but it's not significant enough for us to modify the score. Nebraska ranks #6 in kickoff return fielding, but their coverage is poor on both punts and kicks which evens things out.

When South Carolina has the ball

South Carolina rushing offense: #25

Nebraska rushing defense: #58

Marcus Lattimore was the team's top rusher with 818 yards, but of course he didn't play past game 7 when he suffered an ACL tear. Since then freshman Brandon Wilds has been the man, gaining 486 yards, and QB Connor Shaw showed great ability gaining 483 net yards. Nebraska's rushing defense is only average this year in the FBS; using full-year figures the Gamecocks would have around 190 yards. Losing Lattimore probably knocked 20 yards off their expected value, but Shaw taking over for Garcia regained a lot of that, so the team might be as good on the ground as they were before. In fact, their adjusted Rushing ranking barely changed from mid-season before they lost Lattimore.

South Carolina passing offense: #90	Nebraska passing defense: #19   per att: #23
South Carolina interceptions thrown ranking: #93	Nebraska interceptions picked ranking: #59
South Carolina quarterback protection rank: #84	Nebraska pass rush rank: #104

Steve Spurrier finally had his fill of Stephen Garcia, who played five games this year before being dismissed. Connor Shaw actually started the first game, struggled and was replaced, then came back strong when replacing Garcia. Shaw had 1,218 passing yards to Garcia's 844, a good-sized per-game decline, but he had 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions to Garcia's 4:9 ratio and a far better completion percentage. Nebraska's strong pass defense will probably limit the Gamecocks to around 150 yards. Alshon Jeffery is South Carolina's most consistent receiver with 614 yards and 7 TDs, but he's struggled this year compared to last.

South Carolina as a team rates poorly in interceptions thrown, but again most of those were Garcia's; Nebraska's defense will probably get one pick. Garcia did avoid sacks better than Shaw, getting caught only 6 times to Shaw's 19, but Nebraska's defense doesn't have a Ndamakong Suh on the d-line this year and should only have about 2 sacks.

When Nebraska has the ball

Nebraska rushing offense: #10

South Carolina rushing defense: #19

Nebraska is a strong running team with Rex Burkhead and QB Taylor Martinez combining for over 2,000 yards, 1,268 of those Burkhead's. The two have 24 touchdowns on the ground. South Carolina's rushing defense is up to the challenge but given that the passing option is not good at all for this game, the Cornhuskers might run even more than usual and should top 200 yards.

Nebraska passing offense: #99	South Carolina passing defense: #1   per att: #1
Nebraska interceptions thrown ranking: #61	South Carolina interceptions picked ranking: #3
Nebraska quarterback protection rank: #31	South Carolina pass rush rank: #67

Like last year, Taylor Martinez has had his ups and downs passing. He managed just shy of 2,000 yards while completing 56% with 12 TDs and 7 interceptions. No receiver had over 500 yards and 2 TDs but Kenny Bell had 408 and four others were in the 200s. This rather weak attack is paired against the nation's top pass defense, either on a per-game or per-attempt basis. The Gamecocks could hold the Cornhuskers under 100 yards.

Martinez also has to be careful with the ball. His 7 interceptions is not excessive but he hasn't faced a lot of teams that pick the ball off like South Carolina does. The Gamecocks have 18 interceptions spread out among nine players; they should have 1 or 2 against Nebraska. South Carolina is less fearsome in terms of their pass rush, and Martinez (15 sacks) will probably be sacked only once.

 

South Carolina's season (10-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1.  = East Carolina  56-37
2. @ #22 Georgia  45-42
3. Navy  24-21
4. Vanderbilt  21-3
5. Auburn  13-16
6. Kentucky  54-3
7. @ Mississippi St  14-12
8. @ Tennessee  14-3
9. @ #6 Arkansas  28-44
10. Florida  17-12
11. The Citadel  41-20
12. #18 Clemson  34-13

The first half of South Carolina's season was all about Marcus Lattimore and Stephen Garcia, but neither was there after mid-year.

The Gamecock's opener was almost a disaster, with East Carolina taking a 17-0 lead before Spurrier pulled Shaw for Garcia, who led a huge comeback win. After that, Garcia and Lattimore sparked narrow wins over Georgia and Navy, while the defense controlled Vanderbilt. The offense stalled against Auburn and Garcia was dismissed due to yet another team violation.

With Shaw, the offense exploded against Kentucky, but Lattimore was lost against Mississippi State; South Carolina barely won that game, limped to a win over Tennessee, and lost to Arkansas. They managed to beat Florida and The Citadel, but had a good outing against Clemson.

On offense the team excelled against East Carolina, Georgia, and Kentucky, but never reached those heights again. But in their last few games they seemed to have recovered from the loss of Lattimore and made the transition away from Garcia. The defense was able to bail them out in most, but not all, of the games where the offense stalled.

Nebraska's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. Chattanooga  40-7
2. Fresno St  42-29
3. Washington  51-38
4. @ Wyoming  38-14
5. @ #7 Wisconsin  17-48
6. Ohio State  34-27
7. @ Minnesota  41-14
8. #17 Michigan St  24-3
9. Northwestern  25-28
10. @ #23 Penn State  17-14
11. @ #11 Michigan  17-45
12. Iowa  20-7

The first sign that Nebraska's defense was once again fading away from the "Blackshirts" ideal came against Fresno State, who scored 29. Washington put up 38 in game 3, and then Wisconsin kicked the door wide open by scoring 48 points in a lop-sided win.

The defense wasn't any better against Ohio State but the offense did enough to win. Against Michigan State, the D was at its best, holding the Spartans to three points, but the offense let the team down against Northwestern at home in a huge upset that cost the Cornhuskers the spot in the Big Ten title game. They beat Penn State but were shredded at Michigan similar to the Wisconsin rout. Again, they came back strong at home, beating Iowa 20-7 in another great defensive performance.

The Cornhuskers normally only played to their potential on offense OR defense; if they did both, they'd be a great team. Arguably they only played well on both sides of the ball against Chattanooga, Wyoming, Minnesota, and Michigan State.

Key Injuries

For South Carolina, the season saw Marcus Lattimore go down with a knee injury and starting quarterback Stephen Garcia dismissed. Other running backs were hurt so that they started a freshman, who has performed well. They've been relatively healthy as of late. Nebraska will probably be missing offensive lineman Andrew Rodriguez. 

Both teams will be without their defensive coordinators; Carl Pelini took the Florida Atlantic head coaching job and South Carolina's Ellis Johnson will be head coach at Southern Miss.

Psychology/Motivation

• South Carolina's season: +1 win;  Nebraska's season: -1 win
• South Carolina's momentum: +0 wins; Nebraska's momentum: -1 win
• South Carolina won final game: yes; Nebraska won final game: yes
• South Carolina glad to be there? yes; Nebraska glad to be there: yes
• South Carolina coaching situation: stable; Nebraska coaching situation: stable

While South Carolina did a bit better than last year and Nebraska a game worse, the Gamecock's success is muted by the fact that they didn't win their division as they did in 2010. While both teams would have liked the chance to play to get in a BCS bowl, they're well aware they have no one to blame but themselves: they beat the teams that ended up representing the division, but didn't get the job done in the other games.

And going to their conference title games probably would have just meant an extra loss. South Carolina would have faced LSU, while Nebraska would have rematched the Wisconsin team that beat them 48-17. As it is, not taking an extra loss got them to a better bowl game.

Final analysis

These are two interesting teams. South Carolina has undergone a big transformation on offense during the year, losing their superstar running back and starting quarterback, but come out of it relatively unscathed largely due to a great defense. Nebraska has played up and down on both sides of the ball, the offense playing well one week, the defense the next, and sometimes neither getting the job done resulting in two blowout losses.

If Nebraska had a game where they put it all together they could easily beat the Gamecocks. But we haven't really seen a complete game from the Cornhuskers yet. They've come close and had some good wins, but most of the heights they've reached have been due to good defense paired with decent offense. South Carolina's troubles have mostly been on offense, and they became dependent on their defense to keep them in games where the offense struggled.

Both teams played well in their last game, so I expect that to carry through to the bowl game and make for a good, hard-fought contest. Nebraska is too inconsistent, however. South Carolina's offensive problems were partially due to personnel changes that they've now had time to get over. Nebraska is just erratic. Though I think both teams will play well, South Carolina has the edge. They shouldn't allow the passing game to get going at all, making for a battle of rushing between the teams, and the Gamecock defense is better in that department.

It might not be pretty on either side, but it should at least be a close game.

Prediction:  South Carolina 23, Nebraska 18

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2012 Outback Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Michigan State vs. Georgia

Monday, January 2: Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL at 1:00 pm eastern

#17 Michigan State Spartans (10-3) vs. #22 Georgia Bulldogs (10-3)

The Outback Bowl got a very good Big Ten-SEC matchup this year, both 10-win conference title game participants.

Vegas line/spread: Georgia by 3 (over/under 50)

The oddsmakers favor the Bulldogs slightly in a mostly defensive battle; the line edged down from 3 1/2 to 3 on game day. They might be giving Georgia a bit of home field advantage for likely having the most fan support in border-state Florida.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Michigan State	54%	61%
Georgia	46%	39%

Our power rating ranks Michigan State a bit higher than Georgia, #14 to #20. Correspondingly, MSU's game ratings are higher a slight majority of the time. Against the spread, the Spartans win 3 of every 5 trials.

Strength Power Rating:   Michigan St 24, Georgia 22    Tempo-free:   Michigan St 23, Georgia 20

Michigan State's advantage in the Strength Power Rating translates to a 2 point win, and defense is the key. While Georgia's scoring offense ranks higher (#24 to #32), the Spartans have the #4 adjusted scoring defense in the country, behind only Alabama, LSU, and Penn State. Georgia's scoring defense is #29. We don't assign any home field advantage in this game, though Georgia should have more fans at the game.

Yardage analysis:   Georgia 18, Michigan St 17     per attempt:   Georgia 20, Michigan St 17

By yardage, however, Georgia looks like the better team. They're #10 in the nation in adjusted yardage differential (yards gained - yards yielded) while Michigan State is #14. So while the Spartans rank the same by points or by yardage, Georgia's yardage ranking is 10 rungs higher than their points ranking.

The difference for Georgia is on defense. Their offense is #27—one spot higher than their points ranking—but their defense is #8, which is 20 positions higher than their scoring defense rank. Meanwhile Michigan State's defense remains #4 but their offense is #53, over 20 spots lower than their scoring offense.

Let's look at those discrepancies. First, Georgia's defense doesn't allow much yardage (#10) but allows more scoring (#20). This is very likely due to their poor (#108) red zone defense. When opponents manage to get inside the 20, they are rewarded for it, so Georgia's scoring defense isn't quite as good as their low yardage numbers would indicate.

Michigan State's scoring offense (#32) cashes in on its yardage (#53) at a high rate. The Spartans' red zone offense isn't above average, but they have a good turnover margin and are good at kick returns which helps them start shorter drives; with less yardage needed to score, their scoring numbers are better.

Both teams are expected to have low yardage numbers, MSU around 300 and Georgia 320 or so. When the yardage numbers are converted to a score, Georgia wins by a point. Using per-play figures the Bulldogs win by 3 despite averaging 2.6 yards per carry on the ground. They'll probably hold MSU to 3 yards per carry themselves, and have a slight advantage in passing yards per play.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Michigan State 19, Georgia 17

As noted above, Michigan State has good turnover margin and kick returns, and both help them to win our modified yardage projection. Starting with the from-scrimmage per-game estimate above, we modify by potential interception and kick return differences, and the Spartans win both categories and gain 3 points.

The difference in interceptions is very slight, and maybe gives Michigan State a hypothetical 1/2 point. In kick returns, the Spartans have a decided advantage, with a good chance of some game-changing returns. They rank in the top 25 in both kickoff and punt returns, with Nick Hill and Keshawn Martin the key players. Meanwhile Georgia is 119th in kickoff coverage and 92nd in punt coverage, and has given up 2 touchdowns on returns in each. We estimate that kick returns give Michigan State about 2.5 points of advantage due to field position and the chance of a touchdown return.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State rushing offense: #78

Georgia rushing defense: #5

Le'Veon Bell and Edwin Baker combined for 1,555 yards and 16 touchdowns, but despite almost exactly equal carries (165 to 164) Bell has 11 touchdowns to Baker's 5. He also has a 5.5 to 4.0 average in yards per carry, which is why he has 900 of those yards. The Spartans aren't a great rushing team, however, and either of them will have trouble carrying the ball against Georgia's defense, which is #5 against the run. The Bulldogs might hold the Spartans to just 70 yards on the ground.

Michigan State passing offense: #37	Georgia passing defense: #26   per att: #7
Michigan State interceptions thrown ranking: #47	Georgia interceptions picked ranking: #18
Michigan State quarterback protection rank: #51	Georgia pass rush rank: #16

Michigan State will depend on Kirk Cousins for most of their offense against Georgia. Cousins had over 3,000 passing yards in 2011 with 24 touchdowns. B.J. Cunningham led the receivers with 1,240 yards and 12 touchdowns, and it's important that he have a good game. Keshawn Martin is #2 with 742. Georgia's pass defense is very sound at #26 in adjusted per-game yardage, but it's only that low because teams are forced to go to the air against the Bulldogs; they're #7 in per-play yardage. So it will take some work to even get the 230 passing yards we expect from Cousins.

And it doesn't get any better when you figure in potential interceptions and quarterback pressure. Georgia has 17 picks this year, including 7 from Bacarri Rambo. Cousins has only thrown 7 this year and it would be unlikely that Georgia have more than one interception during the game. The Bulldogs also get good pressure, and it's likely that they get two sacks, maybe three, against MSU's just-above-average protection.

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia rushing offense: #38

Michigan State rushing defense: #2

Georgia's running game is pretty good—they just need to make sure they have a running back available. The Bulldogs have been cursed at that position since the start of the season, and going into the bowl game things still aren't perfect by any means. Isaiah Crowell (847 yards) has a bum ankle that is hopefully a lot better with the time off; #2 Carlton Thomas (361) was hurt against LSU; and #4 Richard Samuel hasn't played in a month. All three are "probable" for the game which means they should be in their best condition in quite a while.

Still, they have their work cut out for them against the Spartan defense, which is #2 against the run when adjusted for opponents' running games. The Bulldogs will be lucky to have 100 net yards after sacks are subtracted, and as mentioned they could average fewer than 3 yards per carry.

Georgia passing offense: #31	Michigan State passing defense: #16   per att: #9
Georgia interceptions thrown ranking: #63	Michigan State interceptions picked ranking: #20
Georgia quarterback protection rank: #101	Michigan State pass rush rank: #4

Like Michigan State, Georgia will likely have to go to the air assuming they can't run the ball very effectively. Aaron Murray has been fairly productive, managing 2,861 yards and 33 touchdowns. Three receivers—Malcolm Mitchell, Orson Charles, and Tavarres King—have 500 or more yards this year and combined for 16 TDs. The Spartans don't give up a lot through the air, either, ranking #16 per-game and #9 per-play. Murray might have around 225 yards

Other factors make that total seem possibly high. Murray has thrown a reasonable 12 interceptions but he'll have to watch himself against Michigan State's D, which has 15 picks and will likely have at least one more during the game. The real problem for Murray is going to be the pass rush. Michigan State is #4 in the nation in sacks adjusted for their opponent, with 41 total. Linebacker Denicos Allen leads the team with 10 on his own. Murray has been sacked 28 times this year and we projected the Spartans will have at least four in the game.

 

Michigan State's season (10-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. Youngstown St  28-6
2. Florida Atlantic  44-0
3. @ Notre Dame  13-31
4. Central Michigan  45-7
5. @ Ohio State  10-7
6. #11 Michigan  28-14
7. #7 Wisconsin  37-31
8. @ #16 Nebraska  3-24
9. Minnesota  31-24
10. @ Iowa  37-21
11. Indiana  55-3
12. @ Northwestern  31-17
13. = #7 Wisconsin  39-42

Michigan State didn't impress us early on. Beating Youngstown State by 22 and 1-11 FAU, then losing badly to Notre Dame? They beat Central Michigan, edged a floundering Ohio State, and beat an unproven Michigan team.

In retrospect, three of those early wins were all over bowl teams, and Michigan proved to be a very good team. So when the Spartans proved themselves against Wisconsin, it wasn't a fluke—even if the game-winning hail mary was. They fell at Nebraska badly the next week, but recovered to edge Minnesota, beat Iowa soundly, and finish 10-2 going into a rematch with the Badgers for a Rose Bowl berth. They fell behind early, came back and led, then fell behind again late. Martin returned a late punt to the 3-yard line, but a roughing penalty called that back, and Wisconsin killed the clock, ending the Spartans' Rose Bowl dream.

Though Michigan State is known for its defense, the offense can be very good—at times. It's been very inconsistent, though in later games—since being held to 3 by Nebraska—they've at least been average in scoring.

Georgia's season (10-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. #4 Boise St  21-35
2. #10 South Carolina  42-45
3. Coastal Carolina  59-0
4. @ Mississippi  27-13
5. Mississippi St  24-10
6. @ Tennessee  20-12
7. @ Vanderbilt  33-28
8. = Florida  24-20
9. New Mexico St  63-16
10. Auburn  45-7
11. Kentucky  19-10
12. @ Georgia Tech  31-17
13. #1 LSU  10-42

Georgia dropped its first two games, and Mark Richt's head was about to be cut off and delivered on a platter to his detractors.

But the Bulldogs went on a 10-game winning streak that forestalled that event indefinitely. What was the difference? How did they elevate their game?

Really, they didn't. The losses were to Boise State and South Carolina, two teams that were in the top ten at the time and finished there. Georgia played good football in both games. Against South Carolina the defense was awful but the offense was great. Against Boise, both were reasonable. For the rest of the year the offense was average, the defense above average, and the team got by when they needed.

They were assisted by a schedule that avoided Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas from the West, instead beating Auburn and the Mississippi teams. They didn't dominate their own division, edging Vanderbilt and Florida to win the East. They beat Georgia Tech in a non-conference rivalry game before facing LSU, during which missed opportunities and big plays from the Tigers doomed them. Still, it wasn't a bad performance, on part with their earlier, understandable losses. Like Michigan State, Georgia's offense has its moments, but defense is their bread and butter.

Key Injuries

All of Georgia's key running backs are hobbled but all should be available for the bowl game. Michigan State nose tackles Johnathan Strayhorn and Kevin Pickelman are probably unavailable for the game, which could be a big loss for Michigan State.

Psychology/Motivation

• Michigan State's season: -1 win;  Georgia's season: +4 wins
• Michigan State's momentum: -1 win; Georgia's momentum: +1 win
• Michigan State won final game: NO; Georgia won final game: NO
• Michigan State glad to be there? no; Georgia glad to be there: yes
• Michigan State coaching situation: stable; Georgia coaching situation: stable?

Both teams lost in their conference championship games, but they were two very different losses. Georgia expected to lose, and though they fought tough early the loss to LSU was soon a foregone conclusion. Michigan State had already defeated Wisconsin once, and they led for most of the 2nd half of the rematch. In a sad twist of fate for them, they lost to the Badgers in circumstances almost as unlikely as the one it took to beat them in the first meeting. Mark Dantonio called it his toughest loss ever, and it knocked the Spartans—minutes away from the Rose Bowl berth that eluded them last year—down to the Outback Bowl.

Georgia's season can be seen as one of redemption. After last year's 6-7 outing, the Bulldogs started 0-2 and most had written them off as an SEC competitor. But 10 straight wins fixed that, and helped secure Mark Richt's job—at least until they lose another two games in a row, which could happen here.

Final analysis

With both teams playing great defense and erratic offense, we agree with the Vegas' odds for a lower-scoring game. The question is which offense will be able to overcome the staunch defense opposing them and move the ball?

Neither team can likely run the ball very well on the other. The Spartan rushing defense even better than Georgia's, and all of the Bulldogs running backs are less than 100%. With a 3rd string nose tackle starting for MSU, the injuries could balance out, but the Bulldogs can't count on the run game delivering for them. Meanwhile if the Spartans go to Bell more often he might have some success on the ground but again, nothing big should be expected.

Passing is problematic too, as both defenses are in the top 10 in pass yardage per-play. But Kirk Cousins is a senior playing his final game so we expect him to be motivated; meanwhile Georgia sophomore Aaron Murray is going to be under a relentless pass rush that could disrupt his game a lot.

Michigan State may also get big plays on punt or kick returns. In the end, they seem to have the advantage in moving the ball and scoring.

One thing the Spartans have to get over is their disappointment over how the season ended. Georgia could have a significant mental edge playing closer to home, with more fans in attendance, against a still-shellshocked MSU team. But Mark Dantonio is a great motivator for his team; witness last year when his hospitalization had the team playing at a new high level. This year he's got them playing at that level without needing a heart attack to get them there. By bowl time, he should have the team recovered from their letdown. If not, we might see a sluggish Spartan team. But with Cousins playing his final game, Michigan State should come out on top in a great Big Ten-SEC battle.

Prediction:  Michigan State 19, Georgia 17

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Pizza, Belk Bowl Results - Purdue, North Carolina State win

North Carolina State 31, Louisville 34

Mike Glennon passed for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns as North Carolina State built a 31-10 lead and held on for a 31-24 win in the Belk Bowl.

Glennon and Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater traded touchdowns in the first quarter, Glennon's pass to T.J. Graham and Bridgewaters' on a 8 yard run. The Cardinals' only lead came in the 2nd quarter at 10-7 after a Chris Philpott field goal.

After that the Wolfpack scored 24 straight points reaching into the 3rd quarter. Glennon had two more 1st half touchdowns to Tobais Palmer and Graham; both were long plays of 35 and 67 yards and N.C. State took a 21-10 halftime lead.

A Niklas Sade field goal and a 64-yard interception return of a Bridgewater pass made it 31-10 with a quarter and a half to go.

Louisville crept closer on two short Bridgewater TD passes, to Nate Nord and Josh Bellamy, but another interception ended the Cardinals' final chance to tie the game.

Bridgewater finished with 274 yards and 4 total touchdowns but was undone by the two interceptions which proved to be critical.

North Carolina State improved to 8-5 while Louisville fell to 7-6.

Purdue 37, Western Michigan 32

In the Little Caesars' Pizza Bowl, Purdue beat Western Michigan in game reminiscent of their win over Central Michigan in 2007 in the same bowl, formerly the Motor City Bowl.

That game ended 51-48, and while this one wasn't quite as high scoring but there was still plenty of offense. Western Michigan struck first on a 49-yard Alex Carder pass to Jordan White; after a successful 2-point try it was 8-0.

Purdue's Robert Marve made it 8-7 on a 1-yard toss to Reggie Pegram. Then the scoring ramped up in the  2nd quarter.

After a Purdue field goal, Carder got his 2nd TD pass to make it 15-10, Broncos. Purdue's Raheem Mostert had the play of the day on the ensuing kickoff, taking it back 99 yards for a score. A Pegram TD run and another Carson Wiggs field goal gave Purdue a seemingly strong 27-15 lead at the half.

But Western Michigan didn't give in. A field goal cut it to 27-18, and they stuck close, trading touchdowns in the 3rd quarter. Caleb TerBush hit Gary Bush for a 33-yard score for the Boilermakers and Tevin Drake responded with a 1-yard TD run. Purdue led 34-25.

A field goal in the 4th quarter extended that lead to 37-25. Carder's pass with 5 minutes left cut the lead to 37-32, but on the Broncos' final possession Carder fumbled and Purdue ran out the clock.

The Boilermakers finished with a winning record at 7-6, and Western Michigan fell to the same.

More previews and results: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2012 TicketCity Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Houston vs. Penn State

Monday, January 2: TicketCity Bowl in Dallas, TX at Noon eastern

#14 Houston Cougars (12-1) vs. #23 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3)

A interesting matchup pitting mega-offense vs. great defense, but the shadow of Penn State's scandal hangs over the game.

Vegas line/spread: Houston by 7 1/2 (over/under 56)

Houston was favored by almost a touchdown in the early line and that has grown to slightly more than a touchdown by game day. The game is seen to be a moderate-scoring affair, averaging the production of the teams' offenses and defenses.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Houston	76%	64%
Penn State	24%	36%

As Houston is #12 and Penn State #26 in our Strength Power Rating, the Cougars win the majority of game-comparisons and should win about 3/4 of the time, and nearly 2/3 of the time against the spread.

Strength Power Rating:   Houston 35, Penn State 21    Tempo-free:   Houston 33, Penn State 22

Our numbers give Houston a two-touchdown advantage. This includes home field advantage which we give to the Cougars for playing in-state and close to home, whereas Penn State is 1,300 miles and two time zones away.

The matchup of Houston's offense vs. Penn State's defense will be one of the best you can see during the bowl season. Houston's adjusted scoring offense is #3 in the nation, as is Penn State's defense. Houston's O ranks below only Oklahoma State and Oregon, while the Lion D is behind just Alabama and LSU. All four of those teams are playing in BCS bowls, the latter two for the national title.

The other matchup is less compelling: Penn State's #85 offense taking on Houston's #70 defense. But it has just as much chance of determining the outcome. When Houston's fast tempo and Penn State's slower tempo are accounted for, the projected margin shrinks to 11 points for the Cougars.

Yardage analysis:   Houston 42, Penn State 27     per attempt:   Houston 28, Penn State 23

Houston becomes an ever bigger favorite when projected yardages are used. The Cougars rank even better—#8—by yardage differential, with the #2 offense and #88 defense. Penn State is #34, with their offense #76 and defense #11. By these numbers the Cougars will have around 500 yards of total offense, outgaining the Lions by over 100, resulting in a 15 point margin.

The per-attempt numbers close the gap considerably. Penn State's per-play rushing and passing defense are both in the top ten, limiting Houston to 7.5 yards per pass play meaning the Cougars would need 54 attempts to reach the yardage that the per-game figures predict. Houston still wins this projection, but the game is a lot closer than the others.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Houston 44, Penn State 27

Houston has a small advantage in projected turnovers, and a larger one in kick return yardage. The Cougars have returned three kicks for touchdowns this year. Combined, this gives them maybe another 2 points advantage.

When Houston has the ball

Houston rushing offense: #75

Penn State rushing defense: #12

Charles Sims and Michael Hayes both topped 700 yards and combined for 20 touchdowns for the Cougars, who have a pretty good running game for a passing team. But Penn State has a strong rushing defense and Houston should be held to around 100 yards, mostly from draw plays to keep the defense honest for the passing game.

Houston passing offense: #1	Penn State passing defense: #21   per att: #3
Houston interceptions thrown ranking: #11	Penn State interceptions picked ranking: #16
Houston quarterback protection rank: #19	Penn State pass rush rank: #41

Case Keenum broke just about every important record for a quarterback in career stats this year, including touchdown passes, completions, and passing yards. He went over 5,000 passing yards for the third season in his career, and had 45 TDs against just 5 interceptions. He did this while completing 72% of his passes.

Two of his receivers topped 1,000 yards for the season: Patrick Edwards (1,524) and Justin Johnson (1,081), who had 18 and 11 TD catches respectively. Tyron Carrier had 914 yards meaning the Cougars could finish with a trio over 1,000.

Penn State's pass defense is very good. They're #21 on a per-game basis (adjusted for opponents) but on a per-play basis they are #3. So while the per-game numbers suggest Houston can rack up 400 yards through the air, the per-play numbers say that's going to take a lot of effort.

Since Keenum throws so few picks it's doubtful that even Penn State's D will have more than one during the game. And for a team that throws so often, Keenum's sack total is extremely low—just 14 sacks in 534 passing attempts. Penn State might only have one sack on Keenum. In short, it doesn't look like Penn State's defense is particularly troubling to Keenum other than the fact that they limit their opponents to very few yards per attempt through the air. However, Southern Miss put a strong pass rush on Houston, and they rank only #82 in adjusted sacks.

When Penn State has the ball

Penn State rushing offense: #39

Houston rushing defense: #100

Silas Redd leads the Nittany Lion running game, and therefore is, by default, the engine of the offense. He has 1,188 yards this year and seven touchdowns. Beyond him, no one has even 250 yards. Redd will be crucial in this game for Penn State, who wants to rest their defense as much as possible. Houston's rushing defense is terrible and the Lions should exploit that for around 200 yards.

Penn State passing offense: #86	Houston passing defense: #52   per att: #50
Penn State interceptions thrown ranking: #41	Houston interceptions picked ranking: #27
Penn State quarterback protection rank: #15	Houston pass rush rank: #33

Here's where Penn State's problems have been all year, and will almost certainly continue to be as Matt McGloin might not play. McGloin took over as sole quarterback after mid-season, and passed for just over 1,500 yards and 8 TDs while Rob Bolden—who might be the starter against Houston—had just 548 yards, 1 TD, and 4 interceptions. Houston's defense is decent against the pass, and Penn State should have about 180 yards. More, perhaps, if McGloin plays (and isn't concussion-rattled), less if Bolden starts.

The interception and sack numbers will probably depend on who plays at QB, too: McGloin has 5 interceptions in 231 attempts while Bolden has 4 in 109. Both have been sacked 6 times. The "combined" numbers for the season point to Houston getting 1 interception and 1 or 2 sacks.

 

Houston's season (12-1)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)

1. UCLA  38-34
2. @ North Texas  48-23
3. @ Louisiana Tech  35-34
4. Georgia St  56-0
5. @ UTEP  49-42
6. East Carolina  56-3
7. Marshall  63-28
8. Rice  73-34
9. @ UAB  56-13
10. @ Tulane  73-17
11. SMU  37-7
12. @ Tulsa  48-16
13. #20 Southern Miss  28-49

Houston's season started off shaky. They topped UCLA, managed a huge comeback against Louisiana Tech, and outlasted UTEP in starting 5-0 when they could have been 2-3. The team's performance chart shows the relative low grade of the team at this time.

But after that they team took things up a notch, beating C-USA teams by huge margins. Most of those teams were awful, but at the end of the regular season they proved they could dominate good teams, too, beating SMU 37-7 and 8-4 Tulsa 48-16 on the road in their best game of the year.

They hosted Southern Miss for the C-USA championship and a BCS berth, but their string of great performances ran out. They laid an egg with both their worse offensive and defensive showings of the year, finishing 12-1, and falling from the Sugar Bowl to the TicketCity Bowl.

Penn State's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. Indiana St  41-7
2. #2 Alabama  11-27
3. @ Temple  14-10
4. Eastern Michigan  34-6
5. @ Indiana  16-10
6. Iowa  13-3
7. Purdue  23-18
8. @ Northwestern  34-24
9. Illinois  10-7
10. #16 Nebraska  14-17
11. @ Ohio State  20-14
12. @ #7 Wisconsin  7-45

Penn State played consistent football the entire year, mostly due to their defense which was good all the time, but also due to their offense which was bad nearly every game.

The team's offense and defense charts tell the story: an offense that ranges from pathetic at worst to average at best, and a defense that is good, very good, or great. The team's performance level didn't really drop after the Sandusky scandal hit and Joe Paterno was fired; the defense played solid for two games and the offense was as bad as usual. Against Wisconsin, a 45-7 loss, the defense played its worst game, the only indication that the team was in bad spirits.

Before all that, Penn State won eight games, most of them by narrow margins: Temple by 4, Indiana by 6, Iowa by 10, Purdue by 5, Northwestern by 10, Illinois by 3. As good as Penn State's defense is, the offense couldn't pull away from anyone, making every game a close one.

Key Injuries

Quarterback Matt McGloin, who suffered a concussion when he was knocked out in the locker room by receiver Curtis Drake, hasn't been practicing and we're assuming he won't play. Even if he does, his effectiveness—as is typical for players who return from a concussion—will probably be reduced. They haven't announced whether Drake will play or not. QB Rob Bolden was questionable, but will play after being pinched for stealing $5 of snacks. Generally Houston's key players are healthy or should be by game time.

Psychology/Motivation

• Houston's season: +6 wins;  Penn State's season: +2 wins
• Houston's momentum: +0 wins; Penn State's momentum: -1 win
• Houston won final game: NO; Penn State won final game: NO
• Houston glad to be there? yes; Penn State glad to be there: no
• Houston coaching situation: left; Penn State coaching situation: fired

First, the coaching situation. Kevin Sumlin left Houston for Texas A&M, a situation that never sits well with a team particularly when he's not coaching the final game. New hire Tony Levine will coach the team, so at least their new guy is there. Penn State's situation is unique, where legend Joe Paterno was fired under circumstances I'm sure we've all heard about. The interim coach will be defensive coordinator Tom Bradley, but as of this writing Penn State is the only team than hasn't hired a new head coach.

Beyond the coaching situation at Penn State there are of course a lot of other problems as the team has been under scrutiny and the school is dealing with ever-unfolding events there. The fight between Matt McGloin and Curtis Drake may or may not be related to increased tension on the team, but it certainly doesn't paint a picture of a united squad heading into the bowl game.

Both teams had a better season than last year, but for Penn State that's hardly reason to be excited about this bowl game, as they were 8-1 at one point with Rose Bowl visions. For where they finished, they got dropped a number of spots in the Big Ten bowl pecking order; last year's Outback Bowl, where they went as a 7-5 team, pays out nearly triple what the TicketCity does, and many Penn State players wanted to skip the bowl.

Meanwhile Houston is glad to be back in a bowl game after last year's 5-7 record, but that's overshadowed by the fact that they would have been in a BCS bowl had they won their last game.

While neither team is in a very positive mental state concerning this bowl game, Penn State's situation is completely new and it would be hard to see them in anything but an unmotivated condition. Houston is disappointed but playing close to home after a 12-win season, and by game time the hurt of their last loss will diminish. Penn State was blown out in their last game, too, and that could represent the team finally capitulating to the pressure of the last month.

Final analysis

While this game has a great offense vs. defense matchup, the psychology of the teams will probably overshadow that.

Penn State has a great defense, and Houston was rattled by a very average Southern Miss defense. This happens a lot with pass-happy teams: they hit a wall, and against a team that can rattle them, they fold unless they have a strong running game or defense to fall back on (and typically that's not the case). So you can make a case that Penn State could control the game, keep it low scoring, and do enough on offense to win. Or you could argue that Penn State is probably so damaged and out of it that they are unlikely to rise to the occasion.

Houston certainly isn't in good spirits about the end of the season, but nothing compared to Penn State. And Case Keenum can probably lead his team to win one more time. Note that at the end of the Southern Miss game, Keenum was determined to get a final, meaningless score in the waning seconds—he hadn't decided the game was over yet. Nor has he decided Houston's season is over yet.

And even if Penn State's defense does slow Houston down, or even shut them down, Penn State has to score on offense. And as good as Penn State's defense has been, their offense has been just as bad. And when you have receivers and quarterbacks throwing KO punches in the locker room, it doesn't seem like team unity as at an all-time high.

Prediction:  Houston 26, Penn State 13

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Chick-Fil-A Bowl Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Virginia vs. Auburn

Saturday, December 31: Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, GA at 7:30 pm eastern

Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) vs. Auburn Tigers (7-5)

A good matchup for the locale, certainly, as two nearby teams compete to cap off seasons that started with a lot of uncertainty.

Vegas line/spread: Auburn by 3 (over/under 49)

The Tigers were favored by a field goal and that stayed pretty steady, ranging from 2 1/2 to 3 points on game day.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Virginia	47%	54%
Auburn	53%	46%

Auburn is our favorite most of the time, unless you're going by the spread, in which case Virginia should win (or loss by less than the spread) a slight majority of games. Our power ratings rate Auburn as an average team (#60) and Virginia as below average (#76) despite their decent records.

Strength Power Rating:   Auburn 25, Virginia 22    Tempo-free:   Auburn 26, Virginia 22

Rounding off the estimate of the Strength Power Rating matches the Vegas line. Auburn's offense, or rather Virginia's lack of it, is the difference: The Cavaliers are #98 in adjusted scoring offense and Auburn is #46. On defense, Auburn is #66 with Virginia #47. Adjusting for tempo widens the spread by not quite a point, but it rounds to a 4-point advantage.

Yardage analysis:   Virginia 31, Auburn 21     per attempt:   Auburn 30, Virginia 25

Virginia is a clear favorite, however, by adjusted yardage metrics. The Cavs are #48 in yardage differential and Auburn is just #82. Virginia has the advantage in both adjusted total offense (#54 to #72) and defense (#38 to #75), and this yields a projected 75-yard total offense advantage and 10 point win for the Cavaliers.

Auburn ends up looking better on the scoreboard, but Virginia is much better statistically from scrimmage. Why the flip flop between yardage and scoring? Virginia's trouble converting yards to points could come from their lousy turnover margin (#90 in the nation), terrible red zone play (#93), and lackluster 3rd down conversion (#75). All three of those will kill drives and reduce scoring. Meanwhile Auburn's scoring is harder to explain as they aren't very good in any of those metrics that should help it turn dismal yardage into more points.

But the Tigers come out on top on a per-play basis. Virginia might have a slight edge in rushing yards per carry, but the Tigers have over 1 yards per play advantage on pass plays, leading to a 5-point difference when converted to a score estimate.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Virginia 31, Auburn 24

After starting with the 10-point gap in the per-game yardage analysis, Auburn closes that to a touchdown when we factor in kick returns and turnovers. For the latter we consider only interceptions, and the Tigers have a slight edge there that we convert to 1 point.

On kick returns the edge is bigger. Auburn's Tre Mason and Onterio McCalebb each have a touchdown on a kickoff and average over 25 yards per return. Field position to start drives is probably one of the elusive factors making Auburn score more points than suggested by their yardage, and the Tigers get another 2 points for their advantage.

When Virginia has the ball

Virginia rushing offense: #56

Auburn rushing defense: #84

Perry Jones and Kevin Parks have combined for over 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Cavaliers, who should be able to move the ball fairly well against Auburn's troubled rush defense. Look for the duo to have around 175 yards against the Tigers.

Virginia passing offense: #55	Auburn passing defense: #63   per att: #48
Virginia interceptions thrown ranking: #114	Auburn interceptions picked ranking: #71
Virginia quarterback protection rank: #28	Auburn pass rush rank: #74

Michael Rocco started the entire year for Virginia but only became the full-time, sole quarterback before the Miami game, and that's when the Cavaliers put together their best 4-game run. Rocco had 2,359 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, but also 11 interceptions. Backup David Watford completed only 40% of his attempts, and it was his poor play rather than Rocco's greatness that led to the switch. Receivers Kris Burd (810 yards) and Tim Smith (565) are the top targets, while RB Jones has 416 yards. Burd has just one touchdown catch, emblematic of a team that pours on yardage relative to its scoring ability. Virginia should have over 230 yards of passing offense against Auburn's average pass D.

Between Rocco and Watford the team throws a lot of interceptions, but Auburn isn't terribly dangerous on defense in that respect; they'll have 1 pick in an average game, possibly two. The Tigers also don't have a dangerous pass rush now that Nick Fairley is gone; Virginia protects Rocco (13 sacks) pretty well so expect Auburn to get just one sack.

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn rushing offense: #31

Virginia rushing defense: #35

Auburn has a decent running game, led by Michael Dyer's 1,242 yards and 10 touchdowns. Dyer, however, is suspended for the bowl game, leaving #2 rusher Onterrio McAlebb (532 yards) to carry more of the load. He averages 5.2 yards per carry, similar to Dyer's 5.1, so he might be able to have a breakout game. A junior, hasn't had over 100 yards since his freshman year, when he topped that in his first two outings. Without both backs, it's doubtful Auburn will reach the 160 yards that we'd project for them if Dyer was available.

Auburn passing offense: #96	Virginia passing defense: #55   per att: #60
Auburn interceptions thrown ranking: #95	Virginia interceptions picked ranking: #72
Auburn quarterback protection rank: #104	Virginia pass rush rank: #83

Auburn had quarterback issues one year removed from Cam Newton. Barrett Trotter started early on and struggled to 1,000 passing yards and 10 TDs, then Clint Moseley took over and had nearly 800 yards and 5 TDs. Neither was terribly effective, and they tried Kiehl Frazier as a running QB; he did well enough but it was easy for defenses to know what was going on when he was in as he attempted only 12 passes. Emory Blake was the only receiver with 500 yards for the season. Auburn should have around 180 passing yards on average.

The offense has been plagued by interceptions and sacks, but luckily Virginia isn't a huge threat on defense in those areas. The Cavs should have one pick and maybe 2 or 3 sacks in a normal game.

 

Virginia's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

1. William & Mary  40-3
2. @ Indiana  34-31
3. @ North Carolina  17-28
4. #20 Southern Miss  24-30
5. Idaho  21-20 OT
6. Georgia Tech  24-21
7. North Carolina St  14-28
8. @ Miami FL  28-21
9. @ Maryland  31-13
10. Duke  31-21
11. @ Florida St  14-13
12. #19 Virginia Tech  0-38

After five games, Virginia's season wasn't shaping up too well. The Cavs were just 2-2 against FBS teams, and their wins were over 1-11 Indiana by 3 and 2-10 Idaho in overtime.

In their next game, however, they became the first team to beat Georgia Tech. They stumbled with another loss, but then the Cavaliers put together an impressive 4-game run, scoring 31 on both Maryland and Duke and beating Miami and Florida State on the road. This put them in a showdown with rival Virginia Tech for the ACC Coastal title.

Prior to the 38-0 Virginia Tech debacle, it seemed their up-and-down defense was hitting its stride and the offense was coming to life a bit. That all disappeared in their worst game of the year, which they should just as soon try to forget as they prepare for Auburn.

Auburn's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

1. Utah St  42-38
2. Mississippi St  41-34
3. @ #18 Clemson  24-38
4. Florida Atlantic  30-14
5. @ #10 South Carolina  16-13
6. @ #6 Arkansas  14-38
7. Florida  17-6
8. @ #1 LSU  10-45
9. Mississippi  41-23
10. @ #22 Georgia  7-45
11. Samford  35-16
12. #2 Alabama  14-42

The question about Auburn in the pre-season was simply, how far will they fall off their #1 perch? Did they still deserve a spot in the top 25? Or would they not end up bowl eligible at all?

The first game didn't bode well at all as unheralded Utah State pressed the Tigers to the limit, at Auburn, before falling 42-38.

In the end, however, the Tigers had a good year despite a killer schedule. Nine of their 12 opponents ended up in bowl games, and all five of Auburn's losses were to top 25 teams. Only Alabama beat them at home.

This isn't to say they belong in the top 25 necessarily. Clemson beat them by 14 and the other by 24, 35, 38, and 28. In addition to the 4-point win over 7-5 Utah State, they beat 6-6 Mississippi State by 7, and 6-6 Florida by 11. The road win over #10 South Carolina was a great defensive performance, as was the Florida game.

Key Injuries

Both teams have a number of players who are questionable for the game, but the big news is of course Auburn's leading rusher Michael Dyer's suspension.

Psychology/Motivation

• Virginia's season: +4 wins;  Auburn's season: -5 wins
• Virginia's momentum: +0 wins; Auburn's momentum: -1 win
• Virginia won final game: NO; Auburn won final game: NO
• Virginia glad to be there? yes; Auburn glad to be there: no
• Virginia coaching situation: stable; Auburn coaching situation: stable

At first blush these teams went in such different directions that you'd have to think Virginia is on cloud nine while Auburn is grousing its bad fortune. And there's no doubt the Cavaliers are happy to be in their first bowl game in years. But Auburn was well aware that their team was going to take a decided step down the bowl ladder without Cam Newton. So while Virginia is probably more glad to be in the Chick-Fil-A bowl that Auburn, the difference probably isn't as huge as their opposite-turnaround seasons would suggest. Virginia is in a building year, Auburn a rebuilding year.

Neither team won their last game against their rival, though in Virginia's case it was worse, a 38-0 home shutout in a game they felt they had a chance in. Auburn got beat bad, too, but probably wasn't fooling themselves that they could beat #2 Alabama.

Unlike many games in this post-season, both of these coaches are in good situations, Auburn's Gene Chizik after winning a national title last year, and Virginia's Mike London after turning the team around from 4-8 last year.

Final analysis

Auburn has shown some resilience this year after a rough start, and though they've lost big to teams that are unquestionably in the top 25—and beat one of them—they've played well against the non-top-25 teams on their schedule. The question is, how will they do without Michael Dyer?

As for Virginia, what should we make of a team that needs overtime to beat a 2-10 Idaho team at home? And beats Indiana by 3 points? Maybe the team didn't have any confidence then, and they certainly played a lot better after their early struggles.

So it comes down to which team improved more after their early season problems: the building team, or the rebuilding team?

We'd normally give the edge to Auburn. They played a tough-as-nails schedule and fought through it with a winning record. If all things were equal we'd take the Tigers. But there's the matter of Dyer's absence.

Neither team looks to have a great offensive day. Virginia should have some success passing and running the ball, while Auburn was mostly depending on having a good day against Virginia's decent rushing defense. McCalebb is capable of having a great game and this is an excellent opportunity for him, but without Auburn's #1 guy, the edge tips to the Cavalier defense to slow down the Tiger ground game.

Prediction:  Virginia 27, Auburn 24

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Independence Bowl Results - Final Score: Missouri 41, North Carolina 24

North Carolina struck first in the 2011 Independence Bowl, with Bryn Renner completing a 22 yard pass to Dwight Jones for a touchdown and a 7-0 lead over the Missouri Tigers just two minutes into the game.

But the tide turned quickly against the Tar Heels. Missouri scored the next 31 points and it was 31-10 by the half. The Tigers went on to beat North Carolina 41-24.

Receiver T.J. Moe got the ball rolling with a 40-yard touchdown pass to Wes Kemp to tie the game at 7 all, and quarterback James Franklin ran for a 2-yard score to make it 14-7 Missouri at the end of the first quarter.

Missouri's barrage continued in the 2nd quarter with a 31-yard Trey Barrow field goal, a Franklin pass to Jerrell Jackson, and an 8-yard Kendial Lawrence touchdown run. The defense showed its strength by holding the Tar Heels after they had 1st down on Missouri's 2 yard line. Two incomplete passes and a stuffed run necessitated a 20 yard field goal that made it 31-10 Missouri at the half.

North Carolina would get no closer than 14 points, which they did late in the 3rd quarter on a 44-yard Renner to Jheranie Boyd pass. Franklin responded immediately with another touchdown run set up by Moe's 50-yard kickoff return.

Barrow added a field goal in the 4th, and Renner concluded the scoring with his third TD pass, 17 yards to Erik Highsmith. Renner finished with 317 passing yards but UNC couldn't run the ball at all. Meanwhile, Franklin made up for Henry Josey's absence by rushing for 142 yards while Lawrence added 108.

Missouri finishes the year 8-5 while North Carolina drops to 7-6.

More previews and results: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Illinois vs. UCLA

Saturday, December 31: Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco, CA at 3:30 pm eastern

Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) vs. UCLA Bruins (6-7)

The only way to put a positive PR spin on this game without lying is to say: The Kraft Fight Hunger bowl features the Illinois Fighting Illini, who began the season 6-0, facing the UCLA Bruins, runner-up for the Pac-12 championship.

Vegas line/spread: Illinois by 2 1/2 (over/under 46.5)

Illinois is a slight favorite to win their first game since early October in a low-scoring game. The line stayed pretty steady in the run-up to the game.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Illinois	50.07%	45%
UCLA	49.93%	55%

Out of all 24,336 game-comparisons, created by splitting up the two teams' offensive and defensive performances and re-matching them, Illinois wins 12,185 and UCLA 12,151. That's after giving UCLA home field advantage for playing in-state while Illinois is two time zones away. Against the spread, UCLA becomes the favorite.

Both squads are just about average according to the Strength Power Rating, with Illinois #58 and UCLA #63. That seems fitting for teams that are 6-6 and 6-7.

Strength Power Rating:   Illinois 21, UCLA 20    Tempo-free:   Illinois 20, UCLA 20

Illinois actually hold a full-point lead over the Bruins in a projected game, despite the miniscule lead in game-comparison results. When Illinois wins the comparisons, they win by a bit more. The disadvantage their have on offense (ranking #97 to UCLA's #57 in adjusted scoring) is offset by a defensive advantage (#21 to #60). So while UCLA is an average team with average offense and defense, Illinois is an average team with terrible offense and very good defense.

Corrected for tempo, the game is too close to call. UCLA plays a bit slower, and with a reduced number of drives it narrows the score gap even further. In all cases we get a low-scoring game mainly due to Illinois' profile.

Yardage analysis:   UCLA 21, Illinois 17     per attempt:   UCLA 33, Illinois 19

UCLA comes out ahead by yardage, however. The Bruins are #37 in adjusted yardage differential to Illinois' #40. The teams' relative profiles are roughly intact: UCLA is balanced on offense (#36) and defense (#44) though they rate higher than they do by points. Illinois is still awful on offense (#94) and great on defense (#9). Our computer projects a 30-yard total offense advantage for the Bruins which translates into a 4-point win.

UCLA's advantage explodes to 14 points using per-attempt yardage comparisons. There, UCLA's passing offense looks a lot better, and they could average 8 yards per attempt to Illinois 5.6, while both teams gain around 4 yards per carry on the ground.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   UCLA 23, Illinois 17

Neither team appears to have a good chance for a game-breaking kick return, nor much advantage in field position due to the kicking game. UCLA is poor on kick fielding as Josh Smith hasn't caught fire this year while Illinois is among the worst in both punt and kickoff returns. The teams aren't great on coverage either, so maybe there's an opportunity.

UCLA gets an edge in possible turnovers, as Illinois should gain fewer interceptions. It's very unpredictable of course, but we give UCLA a 2-point advantage which distances them from the Illini in addition to the yardage estimate.

When Illinois has the ball

Illinois rushing offense: #68

UCLA rushing defense: #102

Illinois' leading rusher was Jason Ford with 600 yards, and right behind him, quarterback Nate Scheelhaase with 514 net. With Ford ineligible for the game, Troy Pollard and Donovonn Young (who each had over 400 yards) will see more action. There shouldn't be a huge drop-off as UCLA gives up a lot of rushing yardage; Illinois could still approach 180 yards even without Ford.

Illinois passing offense: #84	UCLA passing defense: #4   per att: #11
Illinois interceptions thrown ranking: #76	UCLA interceptions picked ranking: #60
Illinois quarterback protection rank: #111	UCLA pass rush rank: #102

Scheelhaase has struggled a bit this year. He's completed 64% of his passes but other than A.J. Jenkins—who has 1,196 receiving yards—he doesn't have many great targets. Jenkins has 84 catches; no one else has over 25. Scheelhaase had fewer than 2,000 passing yards and just 12 TDs, and was benched in the final game for Reilly O'Toole who averages just 4.2 yards per attempt with 1 TD and 4 interceptions.

UCLA's pass defense is a paradox. In raw per-game yardage yielded they rank a mediocre #69. But corrected for the great passing teams they faced (in raw figures, #1 Houston, #3 Arizona, #9 Washington State, #10 Arizona State, #15 USC, #19 Oregon State, #23 San Jose State, and #26 Stanford) that corrects all the way up to #4.

Again, that could be misleading. Their rushing defense is bad, so are these teams just holding off the pass to favor the run? That's certainly some of it. But their per-attempt passing figures suggest that even so, they hold teams well below their per-attempt average, ranking 11th best. Either because they have little success, or because they decide to run the ball, Illinois might manage only 125 passing yards on the Bruins.

Illinois is somewhat interception-prone, but O'Toole skews those stats. UCLA is no better than average on defense and should have one pick only. Despite not having a good pass rush, the Bruins wi'll probably sack Scheelhaase two or three times due to Illinois' poor protection; he's been thrown for a loss 33 times this season.

When UCLA has the ball

UCLA rushing offense: #21

Illinois rushing defense: #28

Johnathan Franklin has been a bright spot for UCLA's offense this year, rushing for 947 yards and averaging 6.0 per carry. Derrick Coleman has scored a lot more, though, with 11 touchdowns and 726 yards of his own. Quarterback Kevin Prince has done pretty well in the pistol, netting 455 yards. Illinois has a solid rushing defense so this should be a good matchup, with UCLA gaining around 180 yards.

UCLA passing offense: #69	Illinois passing defense: #5   per att: #38
UCLA interceptions thrown ranking: #36	Illinois interceptions picked ranking: #91
UCLA quarterback protection rank: #41	Illinois pass rush rank: #11

Prince has shared time with Richard Brehaut at the quarterback position, with mostly similar results. Prince has a slight edge in most areas, though Brehaut only has one interception and was sacked just 4 times, a much lower rate than Prince. With Brehaut suspended for the game, Prince will have the show to himself and that might be a good thing. Nelson Rosario is a dependable target (1,106 yards).

Like UCLA, Illinois ranks in the top five in adjusted pass defense. Unlike UCLA, they are a solid #4 in raw yardage, meaning teams don't gain a lot through the air on them. The Illini haven't faced the kind of passing teams that UCLA has on a regular basis, and when looked at from a per-play perspective, Illinois is only #38. Meanwhile the Bruin passing offense is #12 on a per-attempt basis, so there is hope that they might get significantly more than the 160 yards we project.

Illinois doesn't pick off many passes, so Prince won't have to be overly concerned. What he will feel is the pass rush. He's been dropped 20 times this year in 195 attempts, an absurd rate that's hidden by Brehaut's much better numbers. Meanwhile Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus leads the nation with 14.5 sacks. Look for Mercilus alone to wrap up Prince a couple of times himself; pass protection could be a big issue for UCLA as they'll be missing a starting offensive lineman.

 

Illinois's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)

1.  #24 Arkansas St  33-15
2. South Dakota St  56-3
3. Arizona St  17-14
4. Western Michigan  23-20
5. Northwestern  38-35
6. @ Indiana  41-20
7. Ohio State  7-17
8. @ Purdue  14-21
9. @ #23 Penn State  7-10
10. #11 Michigan  14-31
11. #7 Wisconsin  17-28
12. @ Minnesota  7-27

Theirs was the ultimate tale of two seasons.

Illinois kicked off the year with possibly their best win, beating 10-2 Arkansas State 33-15. They followed with their most dominant win, beating FCS' South Dakota State 56-3. Then came their most impressive victory at the time, a hard-fought win over ASU before the Sun Devils had their own late-season collapse.

Three more wins and Illinois was riding high at 6-0, with four wins over future bowl teams. But every victory except for lowly Indiana came at home. And the schedule was about to turn much more difficult.

They lost to Ohio State, which wasn't too troubling as the Buckeyes had talent despite their own struggles, which included completing just one pass the entire game. But when Illinois dropped their first road game at Purdue, the path ahead suddenly didn't look very rosy. Three Top 25 teams in a row beat the Illini. And though most of the losses had been close, lowly Minnesota beat them by 20 points giving them six straight losses. From 6-0 to 6-6 just like that. More troubling was their complete lack of offense, as they averaged 11 points per game in the 2nd half of the year.

Ron Zook went from hero to zero in one season and was fired, and the transition to new head coach Tim Beckman of Toledo has been anything but smooth.

UCLA's season (6-7)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (7) to losing teams (1)

1. @ #14 Houston  34-38
2. San Jose St  27-17
3. Texas  20-49
4. @ Oregon St  27-19
5. @ #5 Stanford  19-45
6. Washington St  28-25
7. @ Arizona  12-48
8. California  31-14
9. Arizona St  29-28
10. @ Utah  6-31
11. Colorado  45-6
12. @ #8 Southern Cal  0-50
13. @ #9 Oregon  31-49

Unlike Illinois, UCLA kept the good and bad games in their season integrated. So they saw performances like a 48-12 loss at Arizona followed by a 31-14 win over California, and a 45-6 demolition of Colorado preceding a 50-0 shutout at USC.

UCLA beat Houston and Texas last year in upsets, but there was payback this season as the Cougars edged the Bruins and Texas dominated 49-20. They beat the softer teams (San Jose State, Oregon State, Washington State) and lost big to Stanford, so the first half of the season wasn't too schizophrenic.

With the loss at Arizona, however, that changed. They beat Cal and then upset Arizona State, who was 6-2 at the time and a shoo-in for the Pac-12 South title; suddenly UCLA was in the running. So of course they went into Utah and got bombed, 31-6. Luckily for the Bruins, despite their loss to USC both ASU and Utah had faltered when it counted and UCLA was ushered into the gallows against Oregon, where they gave it the old college try.

In the end, UCLA's season was a 6-7 bust and Rich Neuheisal was fired. But they didn't lost two games in a row until the very end against two top ten teams. Though it looks like there's no trend to how they play one game to the next, after the Texas game they played pretty well at home.

Key Injuries

The main absences on both sides will be their head coaches, both of whom were fired. Ron Zook and Rick Neuheisal won't be on the sidelines for their teams. Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning will coach Illinois and offensive coordinator Mike Johnson will lead the Bruins.

But that's not all the teams will be without. UCLA has four suspended or ineligible players including sometime-starting QB Richard Brehaut. Starting safety Tony Dye and starting OL Albert Cid are among the others. Illinois leading rusher Jason Ford is one of two players declared academically ineligible, and fullback Jay Prosch is out with a staph infection.

Psychology/Motivation

• Illinois's season: +0 wins;  UCLA's season: +2 wins
• Illinois's momentum: -6 wins; UCLA's momentum: +0 wins
• Illinois won final game: NO; UCLA won final game: NO
• Illinois glad to be there? no; UCLA glad to be there: no
• Illinois coaching situation: fired; UCLA coaching situation: fired

Two things stand out here: Illinois' six-game losing streak to end the season, and the fact that both coaches were fired. The game will be coached by interim coaches on both sides.

This is a sad, sad bowl game, and neither team can be too happy right now. UCLA is stumbling into the game with a losing record, but in some ways that's better than Illinois' 6-6 slate. UCLA took an extra loss against Oregon, but Illinois went on a record-breaking slide. Both teams backed their way into a bowl game, with the Bruins needing a special exemption due to their record.

Final analysis

What a mess. It's hard to decide which team should win this game when neither really deserves to end the year on a positive note.

We think Illinois is in a worse spot mentally. At 6-0 they were thinking great thoughts; UCLA at 3-3 wasn't getting their hopes too high. Illinois will have an even tougher time getting motivated to play hard in this game, particularly as Zook's remaining assistant coaches are in a dispute with the university over their impending firings. Interim coach Vic Koenning declined to stay as defensive coordinator next year.

UCLA isn't very good, but they're unpredictable which means they might play well, whereas you have to think that Illinois won't. That at least gives a scenario under which the Bruins win by a lot at best, and plays it close at worst. They're playing in-state and they played well at home this year, which was their only consistency. lllinois only had four road games this year and went 1-3, beating only Indiana and scoring just 28 points in the other three combined.

It's also fitting if UCLA wins because that means neither team leaves with a winning record. And since the least interesting bowl games on paper often inexplicably make for the most fun games to watch, we're counting on a bit of unexpected fireworks from these teams. Remember, the defenses will be deflated, too...

Prediction:  UCLA 29, Illinois 27

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Liberty Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt

Saturday, December 31: Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN at 3:30 pm eastern

Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)

Cincy and Vandy combined for just 6 wins last year; now they're playing on New Year's Eve.

Vegas line/spread: Vanderbilt by 1 (over/under 49.5)

Vandy is probably being given some home field advantage in what would otherwise be considered a tossup. The game is being played in Memphis while Vanderbilt resides in Nashville. Cincinnati isn't all that much farther away but fan travel will favor the Commodores.

The line did narrow a tiny bit from 1 1/2 to 1, while the over/under rose a point by game day.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Cincinnati	45%	48.5%
Vanderbilt	55%	51.5%

Believe it or not, 6-6 Vanderbilt is really a borderline Top 25 team. So it 9-3 Cincinnati, but Vandy outranks them in the Strength Power Rating, #25 to #34. Vanderbilt is more consistent on offense and defense so when all these elements are cross-compared, the Commodores win slightly more of the game comparisons straight up and against the spread. This incorporates home field advantage for Vandy, which is most of the difference.

Strength Power Rating:   Vanderbilt 28, Cincy 25    Tempo-free:   Vanderbilt 29, Cincy 24

Vanderbilt's edge over Cincinnati is on defense, where the Commodores rank #25 in adjusted scoring defense; Cincy is #49. On offense the Bearcats are slightly better at #31 to Vandy's #41. The resultant projection calls for average scoring, with Vandy a winner by a field goal. Incorporating pace difference between the teams moves the spread a bit wider.

Yardage analysis:   Vanderbilt 31, Cincy 17     per attempt:   Vanderbilt 31, Cincy 17

Using only yards from scrimmage, Vanderbilt is a clear winner. They rank #41 in adjusted yardage differential to Cincy's #79. Again, the teams are similar on offense (#62 and #61) but Vandy's defense (#21) is much better at limiting yardage than Cincinnati's (#84). This means that if the teams play as expected and convert yardage to points at a similar clip, Vanderbilt should win by two touchdowns. The per-play analysis agrees.

Both teams are fairly good at making their yardage count, as seen by their points-based rankings which are higher than their yardage scores. Suprisingly, though, neither team has good red zone scoring efficiency, and both are poor on 3rd down conversions! Cincinnati is good on 3rd down defense and #10 in turnover margin, which explains how their defense gives up yards at #84 but points at #49.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Vanderbilt 31, Cincinnati 16

Neither team has a major advantage in interceptions or kick returns, though Vanderbilt has a very small edge in both that almost gives them another point to add to the yardage projection. We subtract it from Cincinnati since the Commodores are in the top 15 in both punt and kickoff coverage.

When Cincinnati has the ball

Cincinnati rushing offense: #35

Vanderbilt rushing defense: #16

Isaiah Pead has 1,110 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Bearcats this seaosn, and since QB Zach Collaros went down he's been the leader on the offense. Collaros is the team's #2 rusher for the season, though backup QB Munchie Legaux can run the ball, too. Vanderbilt's rushing defense is pretty tough, and can probably hold the Bearcats to around 125 yards on the ground.

Cincinnati passing offense: #75	Vanderbilt passing defense: #50   per att: #19
Cincinnati interceptions thrown ranking: #79	Vanderbilt interceptions picked ranking: #10
Cincinnati quarterback protection rank: #45	Vanderbilt pass rush rank: #76

Cincinnati was 7-1 with Zach Collaros and went he got hurt against West Virginia, Cincy lost that game 24-21. Munchie Legaux took over and the Bearcats are 2-1 with him since that game. Compared to Collaros, his completion percentage (47% to 63%), yards per attempt (6.5 to 7.7), and TD:Int ratio (5:4 to 14:8) are all significantly poorer. It might be generous to give him 190 yards against the Commodores, as those are based on full-season stats that are 2/3 from Collaros. Also, that estimate uses the per-game figures where Vandy is #50 in pass defense; on a per-play basis they're #19, so Cincy may have to throw the ball a lot to gain that much yardage.

Legaux doesn't throw interceptions at a greater clip than Collaros, so the team stats for the full season are sound. Vanderbilt has picked off 17 passes this year and probably will have 1 or 2 more in the bowl game. Vandy's pass rush isn't great and they might get 1, possibly 2 sacks on Legaux, who gets caught at about the same rate as Collaros did, too.

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt rushing offense: #32

Cincinnati rushing defense: #39

Vanderbilt has a ground attack very similar to Cincinnati's: a strong running back and hundreds of yards from the quarterback position. Zac Stacy has a few more yards than Cincy's top back, 1,136 to be exact, and 13 touchdowns. QB Jordan Rodgers adds 387 of his own. Even the teams rank similarly in yardage adjusted for opponents: Vandy is #32, Cincy #35. But Cincinnati's rushing defense isn't quite as good as Vanderbilts, so the Commodores should have around 170 ground yards.

Vanderbilt passing offense: #82	Cincinnati passing defense: #116   per att: #90
Vanderbilt interceptions thrown ranking: #112	Cincinnati interceptions picked ranking: #35
Vanderbilt quarterback protection rank: #92	Cincinnati pass rush rank: #9

Vanderbilt's passing stats don't look too great. But neither does Cincinnati's passing defense, so this will be an interesting matchup.

Vandy started Larry Smith for the first five games and Jordan Rodgers thereafter. They combined for just over 2,000 yards and 13 TDs, with 14 interceptions. Rodgers is a less accurate but throws farther (14.4 yards per completion vs. 8.6), and adds a decent running threat. Jordan Matthews is the team's top receiver with 723 yards. Cincinnati's pass defense is deplorable on a per-game basis, ranking an adjusted #116 in yards yielded. They improve only marginally to #90 on a per-play basis, meaning Vandy should have around 250 passing yards.

But Cincinnati could change that equation with big plays. Since Rodgers is interception-prone, the Bearcats will likely pick off one or two passes during the game. Quarterback pressure could be the difference, too: Cincy is #9 in adjusted sacks, with three players in the top 100 in sacks per game: Derek Wolfe (9.5), Walter Steward (6), and Dan Giordano (5). Expect that trio to combine for 3 or 4 sacks during the game.

 

Cincinnati's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (1)

1.  Austin Peay  72-10
2. @ Tennessee  23-45
3. Akron  59-14
4. North Carolina St  44-14
5. @ Miami OH  27-0
6. Louisville  25-16
7. @ South Florida  37-34
8. @ Pittsburgh  26-23
9. #25 West Virginia  21-24
10. @ Rutgers  3-20
11. @ Syracuse  30-13
12. Connecticut  35-27

In between cupcakes Austin Peay and Akron, Cincinnati ran into a wall against Tennessee, who is not the great team by any means. That was a worrisome sign that the turnaround we projected for Cincy might not happen.

But over the next several games it became clear that things would be alright. The Bearcats beat N.C. State very convincingly, shut out Miami of Ohio, and won their first three Big East games. But Zach Collaros was hurt against West Virginia and Cincy was awful in the next game against Rutgers. They still have a shot at the Big East title but despite winning their final games the tiebreaker went to the Mountaineers.

Before Collaros was hurt, Cincy played well or very well on offense; after, they had two awful games and two decent ones. It's questionable as to whether Legaux can guide them to a win over a strong team. Against UConn, he had three TD passes but was 15 of 35 with 2 interceptions; Cincy's two defensive touchdowns were the real difference in the game.

Vanderbilt's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)

1. Elon  45-14
2. Connecticut  24-21
3. Mississippi  30-7
4. @ #10 South Carolina  3-21
5. @ #2 Alabama  0-34
6. #22 Georgia  28-33
7. Army  44-21
8. #6 Arkansas  28-31
9. @ Florida  21-26
10. Kentucky  38-8
11. @ Tennessee  21-27 OT
12. @ Wake Forest  41-7

Vanderbilt played very well in its last three games, beating Kentucky by 30, taking Tennessee into overtime, and crushing Wake Forest.

Or, you can go back a few games: Vandy wiped out Army by 23, lost to top ten Arkansas by just a field goal, and took Florida down to the wire in Gainesville.

In fact, you can argue that the Commodores played well the entire year. Save for the understandable one-sided losses to South Carolina and Alabama, they smoked Elon, beat UConn, demolished Ole Miss, and narrowly lost to Georgia. There's really not an embarrassing game there, and that's some very good football for a 6-6 team. They certainly played the Volunteers better than Cincinnati did. Vanderbilt probably owes their bowl bid to their schedule as they played seven home games, but they played well on the road, too, and they'll essentially be at home for the bowl game.

The offense picked up after Jordan Rodgers took over at quarterback vs. Alabama. Despite an atrocious 4 for 19 outing against Georgia and going 10 of 27 against Army, his deeper throws and running threat made the rest of the offense function better.

Key Injuries

Cincinnati will almost certainly be without quarterback Zach Collaros, who was injured late in the season. Vanderbilt center Logan Stewart is out for the game; he is known for his physical play as well as being penalized a lot. His absence could hurt the Commodores' pass protection and run blocking, but they did just fine without him against Wake.

Psychology/Motivation

• Cincinnati's season: +5 wins;  Vanderbilt's season: +4 wins
• Cincinnati's momentum: -1 win; Vanderbilt's momentum: +0 wins
• Cincinnati won final game: yes; Vanderbilt won final game: YES
• Cincinnati glad to be there? yes; Vanderbilt glad to be there: yes
• Cincinnati coaching situation: stable; Vanderbilt coaching situation: stable

Both teams had great turnaround seasons. Cincinnati was 4-8 last season, Vandy 2-10. Both reached bowl-eligibility this year, and both should be pleased to be playing in late December close to home.

Final analysis

Looking at the offense/defense matchups, I don't see either team having a great day through the air. Cincy isn't that good withouth Collaros, and Vandy isn't that good, period. Vanderbilt's pass defense is better than advertised, and while Cincinnati's is bad, they'll be able to pressure the quarterback and get picks.

On the ground, the two offenses are nearly the same: mobile quarterback with a great running back. But Vanderbilt's defense gets the edge here: they'll be more effective in stopping Pead as they have less to worry about from Legaux. Cincinnati's rush defense isn't as good, and they have to either stop the run or pressure the passer on any given play; they can't focus as much on Zac Stacy as Vandy can focus on Pead.

I think that the yardage stats are a good indicator of where this game is going. Vandy is playing better with their replacement quarterback, while Cincy is playing worse with theirs.

Prediction:  Vanderbilt 31, Cincinnati 17

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Hawaii Bowl Results - Final Score: Southern Miss 24, Nevada 17

Southern Miss got their 12th win of the 2011-2012 season—and sent coach Larry Fedora off to North Carolina a winner—beating Nevada 24-17 on a late Austin Davis touchdown pass.

After a scoreless first quarter, the second period contained almost all of the game's excitement. A blocked punt gave the Golden Eagles their first touchdown, and ultimately it was the difference in the game.

The Wolf Pack responded with two consecutive touchdown drives, both ending in Lampford Mark touchdown runs. The first went from 5 yards out; the second was a 45-yard jaunt that gave Nevada a 14-7 lead. Mark finished with 183 rushing yards.

Southern Miss' Jeremy Hester nearly had a touchdown on the ensuing kickoff but was stripped of the ball by Lorenzo Devers and Nevada recovered. The Eagles did close the gap with a 48-yard Danny Hrapmann field goal with a minute left in the half, then it was Nevada's turn to fumble a kickoff and Davis got his first touchdown pass of the day, to Tracey Lampley. The Eagles led 17-14 at the half.

The third quarter was dull by comparison, as the teams traded punts. Southern Miss' Hrapmann missed his 2nd field goal of the day, but Nevada's Allen Hardison connected on a 37-yarder to tie the game at 17.

The fourth quarter was a punt-fest like the third until Davis hit Kevin Bolden for the winning touchdown. The Southern Miss defense stuffed Mark on 4th-and-1 on the next drive and ran out the clock.

Southern Miss improves to 12-2 for the season; they are the only team to beat Houston but also have a bad loss to UAB and a questionable one to Marshall, though the Herd won their bowl game, too. The Golden Eagles will probably move up only slightly in our rankings from #20. Nevada finished the year at 7-6.

More previews and results: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Sun Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Georgia Tech vs. Utah

Saturday, December 31: Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX at 2:00 pm eastern

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) vs. Utah Utes (7-5)

A curious battle of the coastal conferences as the ACC takes on the Pac-12.

Vegas line/spread: Georgia Tech by 2 (over/under 49)

Georgia Tech's power running game made them a solid favorite by the oddsmakers early (5 points) but by game day that was down to 2 points. The over/under fell from 50 1/2 to 49.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Georgia Tech	43%	37%
Utah	57%	63%

Our score-based game ratings show Utah the more likely winner, and since the spread is against them, their odds of beating it are even better (these numbers reflect the original, 5 point spread). Utah is #29 and Georgia Tech #47 in the Strength Power Rating.

Strength Power Rating:   Utah 26, Georgia Tech 22    Tempo-free:   Utah 26, Georgia Tech 23

As noted, Utah rates higher in our power rating, making them around a 4-point favorite. Georiga Tech has the better scoring offense (#35 to #60) but Utah's scoring defense is #12, while Georgia Tech's is #65. When the Yellow Jackets have the ball it's considered an even battle, but since Georgia Tech runs the triple option the game dynamics will come into play.

Because the Yellow Jackets run the ball so much, they play at a slower tempo than almost any other team. A bit surprisingly, that doesn't alter the projected score much.

Yardage analysis:   Georgia Tech 24, Utah 16     per attempt:   Georgia Tech 42, Utah 27

The yardage numbers paint a very different picture than the score projections. In adjusted yardage differential, Georgia Tech is #24 rather than #49, and Utah is #54, not #37. This makes the Yellow Jackets strong favorites, expected to outgain the Utes by around 60 yards and outscore them by 8 points.

Why the big difference? For Georgia Tech, it's the defensive ranking, which is #40 by adjusted yardage. They don't give up a lot of yards, but teams are scoring at clip that ranks their defense #85. The Yellow Jackets are only #92 in opponent 3rd down conversion, which means a lot of drives don't stop. They are also dead last in penalties on their opponents, another thing which could help teams cash in on their drives.

For Utah, the difference is that their offense is even worse measured by yardage, #102. So they are actually converting yards to points fairly well. It's not red zone offense (they're not good there) or 3rd down conversions (they are very poor there), but probably taking advantage of turnovers—and the resultant short field—that helps them score more points than their yardage would suggest.

On a per-attempt basis, Georgia Tech's advantage is artificially inflated by their passing game. They don't throw often, but they go for big yardage and often surprise the defense that is ready for another running play. Though they could average 10 yards per pass attempt against Utah, they won't throw that often; if they did, their average would be lower.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Georgia Tech 24, Utah 17

Surprisingly, Utah has the likely advantage in interceptions. It's a small difference as neither team should have very many, but we give Utah one or two points in the turnover department; as we mentioned, it's one reason their low yardage offense manages to score points.

Though Utah's kick coverage is generally very good, they've given up a couple of touchdowns, making it more likely that Georgia Tech breaks off a big return. Neither team has fantastic fielding, however, in either punts or kickoffs.

When Georgia Tech has the ball

Georgia Tech rushing offense: #2

Utah rushing defense: #17

Since Paul Johnson brought the triple option to Georgia Tech the question each year has been will they be the #1 rushing team this year? If the answer is no, then they're probably close behind. This year the Yellow Jackets are behind only Army, who runs almost exclusively. The Yellow Jackets do mix it up with a pass every 5th or 6th play or so. Per-carry figures might give a better idea of a team's real ground quality, and Tech is still high, #3, by that measure (Army is #7). So no matter how you slice it, Georgia Tech can run the ball.

A number of positions run the ball in the triple-option. Quarterback Tevin Washington leads with 890 yards, followed by B-Back David Sims with 698 and A-Back Orwin Smith with 616. Two other players have over 400 yards, and two more have over 200. Washington has 14 touchdowns and Smith averages 10.2 yards per carry. Georgia Tech should have around 275 yards on the ground against the Utes. Utah's rush defense is solid but they will be tested, both due to the sheer volume of attempts and because of the non-traditional offensive style.

Note, however, that before moving to the Pac-12 this season, Utah faced Air Force every year in the Mountain West, beating them 6 of the last 7 times. The coaching staff and most of the players have seen the triple-option before.

Georgia Tech passing offense: #115	Utah passing defense: #18   per att: #10
Georgia Tech interceptions thrown ranking: #44	Utah interceptions picked ranking: #14
Georgia Tech quarterback protection rank: #26	Utah pass rush rank: #28

Washington had a pretty prolific year for a triple-option quarterback, throwing for over 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns. And Stephen Hill, with 785 receiving yards, also had numbers more like a player from a team with a "normal" offense. But Utah defends the pass very well, and should be ready for those surprise plays; Georgia Tech probably won't have 100 passing yards in the game.

Interceptions aren't likely since Tech doesn't throw much, but could come into play if the Yellow Jackets get behind and are forced to pass. Utah has a lot of interceptions (19), while Washington has thrown 8. Eight is not a lot, but it's a lot for just 135 attempts. Utah should get at least one pick under normal circumstances, and that goes up if Washington throws more. Sack values are skewed, too, by Tech's low attempts, but 12 sacks is bad for 135 passes. Utah will probably sack Washington twice.

When Utah has the ball

Utah rushing offense: #85

Georgia Tech rushing defense: #82

Unlike Georgia Tech, Utah has a balanced offense, but they still favor the run. John White has 1,404 yards on the season, but only two other players topped 100 for the season and neither reached 200. White also scored 14 of the team's 15 ground TDs. Georgia Tech doesn't have a great rushing defense and will probably give up around 150 yards, and White should have well over 100 of those.

Utah passing offense: #81	Georgia Tech passing defense: #9   per att: #53
Utah interceptions thrown ranking: #59	Georgia Tech interceptions picked ranking: #64
Utah quarterback protection rank: #91	Georgia Tech pass rush rank: #90

Jordan Wynn was lost early in the year and since then the passing production has been down. Jon Hays had 1,266 yards giving the team around 2,000 for the full year. The Utes have 19 players who have caught a pass so far this year; six of them have over 100 yards, with DeVonte Christopher leading the way at 589. The Utah passing attack should roughly match their running game with 150 yards. That could be low, as Georgia Tech's pass defense is skewed by the fact that teams just run the ball at their weak rush defense. If Utah decides to pass more, they should have success based on Tech's per-attempt defensive ranking of #53.

Hays is much more sack- (26 vs. 5) and interception-prone (7 vs. 2) than Wynn was. So even as the numbers say Tech should be limited to one pick and a couple of sacks, those numbers could be bigger. Hays played most of the season, though, so the bulk of the full-season stats point to his performance and the estimate shouldn't be too skewed.

 

Georgia Tech's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

1. Western Carolina  63-21
2. @ M. Tennessee St 49-21
3. Kansas  66-24
4. North Carolina  35-28
5. @ North Carolina St  45-35
6. Maryland  21-16
7. @ Virginia  21-24
8. @ Miami FL  7-24
9. #18 Clemson  31-17
10. #19 Virginia Tech  26-37
11. @ Duke  38-31
12. #22 Georgia  17-31

Georgia Tech and its offense was off to the races early, averaging 59 points while beating up FCS's Western Carolina, the Sun Belt's Middle Tennessee, and Big Twelve whipping boy Kansas. Facing real competition, they beat North Carolina and North Carolina State in tighter games to start 5-0.

But two things suggested their winning streak wouldn't go on indefinitely. One, they gave up an average of 26 points on defense, with every team scoring at least 21. Two, Orwin Smith said after the N.C. State game that they couldn't wait for the "really tough games" i.e. Virginia Tech and Clemson. The problem was, there were three opponents in-between. His statement, whether it provided locker-room fodder or reflected the team's overconfidence, pretty much ensured that Georgia Tech would lose one or two of the next three games. Turns out it was Virginia and Miami that beat them.

They did beat Clemson handily, but fell to Virginia Tech and Georgia. In fact, after Smith's statement, they only played one really good game and lost four of six. More than that, it was probably just that after the first three games they were facing teams that had seen their offense every year over the last four seasons, and knew how to defend it. And not insignificantly, of the four that beat them, Virginia and Virginia Tech had more than one week to prepare.

Utah's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

1. Montana St  27-10
2. @ #8 Southern Cal  14-23
3. @ Brigham Young  54-10
4. Washington  14-31
5. Arizona St  14-35
6. @ Pittsburgh  26-14
7. @ California  10-34
8. Oregon St  27-8
9. @ Arizona  34-21
10. UCLA  31-6
11. @ Washington St  30-27 OT
    
12. Colorado  14-17

Utah played well in their first three games with Jordan Wynn at quarterback, but it was mostly the defense that did well against Montana State and USC. All cylinders were firing as they destroyed BYU thanks to numerous Cougar turnovers.

From game four where Wynn was hurt, to the end of the year, Utah had five decent offensive performances and four meltdowns, all of which they lost. When the offense played well, the defense played great. And when the offense played poorly, the defense played average. So they beat Pitt, Oregon State, Arizona, and UCLA easily, but were flogged by Washington, Arizona State, and Cal, and even lost their last game to Colorado. For some reason the Pac-12 seems to breed erratic teams and Utah certainly became one this season.

Key Injuries

Key Utah running back John White will play in the bowl game after missing the last game of the season; the offense had their worst game without him. Georgia Tech D-back Louis Young is suspended for the game. UPDATE: Georgia Tech starting offensive lineman Phil Smith was suspended for the game; this might be partially responsible for the narrowing spread, as offensive line play is critical in Tech's offense.

Psychology/Motivation

• Georgia Tech's season: +2 wins;  Utah's season: -4 wins
• Georgia Tech's momentum: -4 wins; Utah's momentum: +1 win
• Georgia Tech won final game: NO; Utah won final game: NO
• Georgia Tech glad to be there? no; Utah glad to be there: no
• Georgia Tech coaching situation: stable; Utah coaching situation: stable

Overall Georgia Tech's season was better than Utah's. They won more games, and improved over last year whereas Utah took a step back in their first BCS conference season. But in terms of momentum, Georgia Tech gave that up after stalling from 6-0 to 2-4. Utah was 3-4 at one point and won four out of five to end the season. Both teams lost their final contest with a poor showing.

Neither team is therefore probably too excited about this bowl game. At 6-0 the Yellow Jackets were thinking big: ACC Championship big, at the least. That came crashing down pretty fast. Though Utah looked precarious for any bowl at mid-season, by the end they had a real chance to be in the Pac-12 championship game. Realistically they would have needed a huge fluke to win that and get to a BCS bowl, but they had a shot if they just beat Colorado, which they couldn't do. This bowl is their just desserts.

Final analysis

Here is Georgia Tech's bowl history in the Paul Johnson era:

Season Bowl         Opponent  RushD Spread PR est Yards Final   difference
2008   Chik-fil-A   LSU        #21   -4    29-23  28-24  3-38  -39,-41,-39
2009   Orange       Iowa       #37   -5.5  29-21  27-20 14-24  -15,-18,-21
2010   Independence Air Force  #105  +2.5  24-31  31-34  7-14  - 4, =0, -4
2011   Sun          Utah       #17   -5    22-26  24-16  ???       ???

With additional time to prepare (in these cases, anywhere from three to five weeks), teams do better against Georgia Tech. The teams that beat them aren't scoring more points; they're holding the Yellow Jackets to far fewer.

The Air Force game is sort of an anomaly in that the Falcons run a similar offense so the extra time was unlikely to be a benefit; both teams shut down the others' offense and the game spread was roughly as expected. Iowa and LSU cleary outperformed the expectations of the oddsmakers and our Strength and yardage power ratings. LSU scored about 14 more and held Georgia Tech to 25 less; Iowa scored 3-4 more and held Tech to 14 less.

The game against Utah is different in that the score-based and yardage based estimates are so different. If Utah outperforms like Iowa did, they'll win by 10, 22, or 13 points.

How does Utah's defense compare against LSU's or Iowa's? It might take a good defense to rise to the occasion of stopping the Yellow Jackets. Using rushing defense only, they compare well. LSU was #21, Iowa #37, and Air Force #105. Again, Air Force shouldn't count as they know the offense so well. But Utah is #17, and on a per-carry basis they are #7.

In short, I see history repeating itself and a Utah team that has enough time to prepare handling Georgia Tech's triple option attack with relative ease, and their offense doing enough to win.

Prediction:  Utah 24, Georgia Tech 13

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Texas Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Texas A&M vs. Northwestern

Saturday, December 31: Texas Bowl in Houston, TX at Noon eastern

Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6)

Texas A&M lost their coach to dismissal and then tragically lost a senior player to a car crash days before the bowl game.

Vegas line/spread: Texas A&M by 9 (over/under 66)

The Aggies are a solid favorite to win a high-scoring game. The line started at 10 and has fallen to average 9 points on game day (anywhere from 8 1/2 to 10). Meanwhile the over/under rose from 66 to 70...these are both trends that point in the direction of our final score pick.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Texas A&M	86.5%	72%
Northwestern	13.5%	28%

Despite both teams having 6-6 records, there is a world of difference between how they've performed on the field. Texas A&M has had the tougher schedule, defeated better teams overall and lost by fewer points than Northwestern, and their game ratings reflect this. The Aggies rank #10 in the Strength Power Rating while Northwestern is #54. Texas A&M should win more than 5 of 6 games these teams play, and nearly 3/4 against the spread.

Strength Power Rating:   Texas A&M 44, N'western 23    Tempo-free:   Texas A&M 45, N'western 26

Like the oddsmakers, we see a lot of scoring in this one. Our main points-based power rating nearly matches the over/under but doubles the spread, making Texas A&M a three touchdown favorite. The Aggies outclass the Wildcats in both offense (#12 to #33) and defense (#31 to #74), and they're playing very close to home in-state. They play a faster tempo while Northwestern slows things down by running a lot despite their passing reputation; the game pace should be about average, and Northwestern's offense rates a bit better when tempo is fixed.

Yardage analysis:   Texas A&M 48, N'western 28     per attempt:   Texas A&M 42, N'western 22

Measuring team quality by yards from scrimmage the story doesn't change. The Aggies are #7 in adjusted yardage differential (yards for minus yards against), Northwestern #50. Both offenses are good (#7 and #19) while A&M's defense (#24) greatly outranks Northwestern's (#97). Facing the teams off, we project the Aggies to have a 150 total yard advantage, which converts to a 20 point win.

On a per-attempt rather than per-game comparison, there's still a 20 point gap. The teams look about even in passing yards per game, but Texas A&M looks to gain three more yards per carry than the Wildcats, 5.2 to just 2.2.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Texas A&M 48, Northwestern 29

Both teams are good at punt fielding and average on kickoff returns, and poor on punt coverage. If there's a big return it's likely to be on a punt, for either team. Northwestern has a slight advantage on potential interceptions, but it's small enough to only make a point's worth of difference.

When Texas A&M has the ball

Texas A&M rushing offense: #19

Northwestern rushing defense: #67

The Aggies had a strong running game all year. Christine Michael had 899 yards before getting hurt in game 9, and Cyrus Gray topped 1,000 before bowing out in game 11. Missing both of their top backs, they had their lowest rushing total of the year against Texas. Ben Malena had 83 yards, and he'll start again in case Gray isn't back. They probably won't manage the 220 or so yards they'd have with their running backs at full strength, but the Aggies should still have a decent outing.

Texas A&M passing offense: #20	Northwestern passing defense: #110   per att: #110
Texas A&M interceptions thrown ranking: #67	Northwestern interceptions picked ranking: #44
Texas A&M quarterback protection rank: #5	Northwestern pass rush rank: #93

Ryan Tannehill was the team's savior last year and great things were expected this season. He's done a lot, with 300 completions, 3,415 yards, and 28 touchdowns, but also threw 14 interceptions. Ryan Swope is the top target with 1,102 yards and 11 touchdown catches, and Jeff Fuller and Uzoma Nwachukwu both have over 500 yards. Northwestern's pass defense is #58 in raw yardage which is average, but corrected for the teams they've faced they're a dismal #110, either by per-game or per-attempt rankings. Look for Tannehill to have a field day with about 330 yards, maybe even more if RB Gray isn't there to run the ball.

Northwestern might be able to get some big plays for turnovers, but we only expect one interception. Tannehill has thrown 14 and the Wildcats nabbed 11. Their chances for a win depend heavily on getting multiple picks. They probably won't be able to put much pressure on Tannehill, who has been sacked just 8 times. The Wildcats have just 16 sacks all year, and we don't expect them to have any against A&M.

When Northwestern has the ball

Northwestern rushing offense: #47

Texas A&M rushing defense: #7

Northwestern's top rusher is receiver/backup quarterback Kain Colter, who started the first three games while Dan Persa was still recovering from last season's injuries. He has 589 yards and 8 touchdowns, while Jacob Schmidt has 465 and Treyvon Green 349. Persa only netted 71 yards this year as Colter took over the "running quarterback" mantle. Northwestern will need a lot of help gaining ground against the Aggies, who are in the top ten in rushing defense. Including sack yardage (see below), the Wildcats may come up short of 100 yards.

Northwestern passing offense: #21	Texas A&M passing defense: #90   per att: #37
Northwestern interceptions thrown ranking: #58	Texas A&M interceptions picked ranking: #92
Northwestern quarterback protection rank: #110	Texas A&M pass rush rank: #1

Dan Persa had decent production for 9 games (2,163 yards, 17 TDs) but more important than that was his efficiency, as he completed a fantastic 74% of his attempts. Kain Colter wasn't bad, either, with 660 yards mostly in the first three games. Receiver Jeremy Ebert topped 1,000 yards and had 11 touchdown catches, while Drake Dunsmore and Colter, who switched mainly to receiver on Persa's return, combined for nearly another 1,000. Matched with A&M's pass defense, the Wildcats should produce around 300 yards.

There are a few reasons why they might have a tough time getting there. For one, the Aggies' per-attempt pass defense is fairly sound, so it might take more attempts to get to 300 yards than expected. The other roadblock is Texas A&M's great pass rush, which ranks #1 in sacks when adjusted for their opponents. Persa has been sacked 24 times, Colter 8. Meanwhile the Aggies have 43 sacks, with Sean Porter and Damontre Moore combining for 16 themselves. We expect Northwestern's quarterbacks to be sacked five times during the game and have to deal with relentless pressure from A&M; it could be enough to considerably slow the Wildcat offense.

 

Texas A&M's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

1. SMU  46-14
2. Idaho  37-7
3. #3 Oklahoma St  29-30
4. = #6 Arkansas  38-42
5. @ Texas Tech  45-40
6. #15 Baylor  55-28
7. @ Iowa St  33-17
8. Missouri  31-38 OT
   
9. @ #21 Oklahoma  25-41
10. @ #13 Kansas St  50-53 4OT
    
11. Kansas  61-7
12. Texas  25-27

High expectations gave way to major disappointment for the Aggies. They started the year in some people's top ten (ours too) and looked it after two games. Considering Oklahoma State and Arkansas are currently in the top ten, losses by a combined 5 points isn't so bad. They were 5-2 going into the Missouri game.

But that's when their penchant for losing big leads really became a problem. They'd led Oklahoma State by 17, Arkansas by 18, and Missouri by 14. The Tigers tied the game and won in overtime. The Aggies then lost to Oklahoma, then Kansas State in four overtimes after leading by 10 in the 4th quarter. The Texas game was the last straw; they led by 13 early but lost by 2.

The offense really didn't ever let the team down, but the defense had major lapses. In the end, however, they still rated as a top ten team, as four of their losses were to Top 25 teams, and two others were to bowl teams. Two were overtime losses, and three others were by a combined 7 points. They smoked Baylor and beat two more bowl teams. They are a prime example of a team with a mediocre record that's actually very good, but there could be something to their team psyche that's allowing these comeback wins. Playing at home doesn't seem to have helped; in fact, three of their meltdowns occurred at home.

Northwestern's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)

1. @ Boston College  24-17
2. E. Illinois  42-21
3. @ Army  14-21
4. @ Illinois  35-38
5. #11 Michigan  24-42
6. @ Iowa  31-41
7. #23 Penn State  24-34
8. @ Indiana  59-38
9. @ #16 Nebraska  28-25
10. Rice  28-6
11. Minnesota  28-13
12. #17 Michigan St  17-31

Northwestern started slow with Dan Persa still recovering from last year's Achilles' heel problem. They beat Boston College by just a touchdown and FCS Eastern Illinois by 21, but lost to Army.

With Persa back the offense immediately improved, but they lost to four bowl teams to start 2-5. The schedule turned easier and they won four straight—including a huge win at Nebraska. They lost to the Spartans in their season finale.

The defense was terrible until the last four games when it became more than respectable, especially against Nebraska, Rice, and Minnesota. But those three are all poor passing teams, as were Boston College and Army, the other teams the defense did well against.

Key Injuries

Aggie running back Cyrus Gray should be back for the bowl game, but they're still without Christine Michael and Gray probably won't be 100%. Northwestern's defense is a big banged-up, with corner Jordan Mabin out and safety Brian Peters playing with a broken hand.

Psychology/Motivation

• Texas A&M's season: -3 wins;  Northwestern's season: -1 win
• Texas A&M's momentum: -2 wins; Northwestern's momentum: +4 wins
• Texas A&M won final game: NO; Northwestern won final game: NO
• Texas A&M glad to be there? no; Northwestern glad to be there: yes
• Texas A&M coaching situation: fired, interim coach; Northwestern coaching situation: stable

Texas A&M's emotions must have been pulled 100 different ways during this season and before the bowl game. Not only was their season a roller coaster, each game was, at least the games where they grabbed a big lead and failed to hold it. Now, blowing a lead has to always be in the back of their mind. Those blown leads directly led to Mike Sherman's firing as head coach (while he was on a recruiting visit), and defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter will coach the football game.

More significantly, senior offensive lineman Joseph Villanisencio was killed in a car accident on December 22. He wasn't a starter and only played in two games this year, but was apparently well-liked and the event has to affect the other players.

It's hard to say what all this will mean for the team's performance. Some of the events will damped their enthusiasm, others may give them resolve. It could vary by individual players. By comparison, Northwestern's emotional state is pretty irrelevant. They seem to be "up" for pretty much every game, and play to the level of their competition regardless.

Final analysis

The myth about Texas A&M's pass defense is that it's terrible. It does rank #113 in raw passing yards allowed per game. But correct that for the tough passing teams they've faced and they're a much better #90. And on a per-attempt basis, they're a respectable #37. Teams simply don't run against their top ten rushing defense, so passing is all that's left to try. Northwestern, on the other hand, really does have a bad pass defense. They're #58 raw, but #110 when corrected. A&M should have an easy time moving the ball through the air.

Unfortunately for the Aggies, it looks like their habit of losing leads (and losing those games) has worked its way into their minds and perhaps become self-fulfilling. Also, teams now understands that you don't ever give up against Texas A&M, because they might let you back in the game. So if Northwestern is down by 14, or 21, or 28, they won't give up.

Of course, Northwestern never gives up anyway; they are routinely pesky and stick with superior opponents. Look at their recent bowl record, where they played heavily favored Missouri (-12), Auburn (-9), and Texas Tech (-7) extremely tight, taking the first two teams into overtime and losing the other game by a touchdown.

The recent events surrounding the Aggies will sap a lot of the 20+ point margin that their talent would normally give them. Or, they'll lead the game by three touchdowns at some point before the inevitable comeback occurs. Northwestern is the exact kind of team to do it, too. But the Wildcats also haven't gotten over the hump to win their first bowl game since 1948. Though most of Texas A&M's emotion will be negative and troubled, in the end there will also be strong desire to get the win for their teammate who was killed. It doesn't matter if it's 21 points or 1 points or in triple overtime.

One team's curse is going to end in this game. A&M's is losing games after blowing a big lead, and it has lasted ll this season. Northwestern's curse—close but no cigar in bowl games—has survived many seasons. If the Aggies need a stop, or one more drive to win it, they'll probably get it this time.

Prediction:  Texas A&M 38, Northwestern 33

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Insight Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Oklahoma vs. Iowa

Friday, December 30: Insight Bowl in Tempe, AZ at 10pm pm eastern

#21 Oklahoma Sooners (9-3) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5)

Last year Missouri was a top 25 Big Twelve team paired against 7-5 Iowa in the Insight Bowl; this time it's pre-season #1 Oklahoma.

Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma by 13 1/2 (over/under 57.5)

Given Oklahoma's dominance over most of its opponents, and Iowa's shortcomings, this is one of the biggest spreads of the bowl season.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Oklahoma	84%	64%
Iowa	16%	36%

Our numbers confirms that this is among the biggest bowl mismatches, based on each team's game ratings. Oklahoma is #7 in the Strength Power Rating and Iowa a middling #41. Even spotting Iowa the large spread they "lose" nearly 2/3 of the game-comparisons, and straight up Oklahoma wins almost 5 of 6.

Strength Power Rating:   Oklahoma 38, Iowa 17    Tempo-free:   Oklahoma 38, Iowa 22

Oklahoma is #6 in adjusted scoring offense and a surprising #7 in adjusted scoring defense. In raw scoring defense they are just #39, but look who they've faced (in raw offensive rank): #2 Oklahoma State, #6 Baylor, #11 Texas A&M, #23 Tulsa, #25 Texas Tech, #30 Kansas State, #33 Missouri, and #35 Florida State. That's 8 teams in the top 1/3 of the nation, and the Sooners held almost all of them well below their average; even Oklahoma State's 44 was 5 points below their norm (and that was at home and included 2 defensive touchdowns). Iowa's offense and defense are both mediocre, ranking #40 and #39 respectively. Naturally there is a big projected gap between the teams, and Oklahoma is a three-touchdown favorite by our numbers.

Iowa runs the ball a lot and, more significantly, runs plays at a measured pace, making their "tempo" nearly as low as a triple-option team like Air Force! Oklahoma, on the other hand, pushes the pace of the game as fast as any team in the country. This clash of styles should produce a game with an average amount of drives; correcting for each team's points-per-drive, the margin between the teams narrows a bit but Oklahoma is still the winner.

Yardage analysis:   Oklahoma 47, Iowa 21     per attempt:   Oklahoma 34, Iowa 26

Oklahoma is even better by adjusted yardage, ranking #4 in the nation, while Iowa is worse, ranking #65. The Sooner offense is #5 by yardage and Iowa's defense #67, which pumps up the Sooners' projected total to 47. Iowa's offense is only #57, but Oklahoma's adjusted defensive yardage rank is only #29, so the Hawkeyes' projected score doesn't change much from the Strength Power Rating's guess. Oklahoma has great red zone defense and is tough on 3rd downs (#4 in the nation), so the fact that they give up a lot of yards doesn't result in a lot of scores for the other team. Under normal circumstances, Oklahoma outgains Iowa by nearly 200 total yards.

The measure by which Iowa comes the closest to Oklahoma is the comparison of yards per play. Oklahoma runs more plays per game than any other team except Texas Tech. Iowa is #101 in number of plays from scrimmage. Since Oklahoma runs so many plays, their massive yardage is diluted on a per-play basis. Accordingly, Iowa's yards-per-play looks much better than their yards per-game. The per-attempt spread of 8 points is what might happen if both ran the same amount of plays, which is unlikely. But it shows that Iowa has the potential to make the game a lot tighter than the other benchmarks predict.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Oklahoma 47, Iowa 20

Projected turnovers and return yardage doesn't change the yardage-based estimate very much. The teams are pretty close in how many interceptions we expect them to get, though Oklahoma has a small edge that gives them around a point. In kick returns, neither team has a significant advantage, with neither team having a big threat for a game-changing return.

When Oklahoma has the ball

Oklahoma rushing offense: #44

Iowa rushing defense: #45

Oklahoma hasn't had a dominating running game this year; leading rusher Dominique Whaley (627 yards) was lost after six games but Roy Finch (601) proved a capable substitute. Iowa's rushing defense also hasn't been great but they're good enough to match Oklahoma's offense and hold the Sooners to around 150 yards. Interestingly, special-situations quarterback Blake Bell has the most rushing touchdowns (10) on the team.

Oklahoma passing offense: #5	Iowa passing defense: #101   per att: #70
Oklahoma interceptions thrown ranking: #72	Iowa interceptions picked ranking: #93
Oklahoma quarterback protection rank: #2	Iowa pass rush rank: #98

Oklahoma's bread and butter is the passing game under quarterback Landry Jones, a pre-season Heisman hopeful who didn't live up to that billing but still put up huge numbers, completing 63% of his attempts for 4,302 yards and 28 touchdowns. His top target most of the year was Ryan Broyles, who had 1,157 yards in just 9 games. Broyles, a Heisman candidate himself at the time, was lost for the year against Texas A&M. Kenny Stills and Jaz Reynolds combined for more than 1,500 yards but Oklahoma's offense is clearly less potent without Broyles. Reynolds is likely to miss the bowl game, too, leaving another big gap in the pass offense.

It might not matter much against Iowa's pass defense, which has taken a major turn for the worse this season. We have the Sooners racking up almost 400 yards through the air, a number that might be high since it doesn't take into account Broyles' absence. Still, it's likely Oklahoma has a lot of success in the passing game.

Can the Hawkeyes slow down the Sooners via turnovers and quarterback pressure? Not likely. Though Jones has had his share of interceptions (14 this season), Iowa isn't a big threat in that department (just 9 this year) and is expected to have just one during the game. In terms of quarterback pressure, Iowa ranks low with just 19 sacks, while Oklahoma's pass protection is astonishing considering the number of attempts. Jones has thrown the ball 537 times and been sacked 8 times, just one in 67 attempts. Iowa's pass rush hasn't been good either, so it's possible—even probable—that Jones is not sacked the entire game.

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa rushing offense: #69

Oklahoma rushing defense: #27

Iowa doesn't have a strong running game but they do have a strong runner: Marcus Coker, who had 1,384 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Iowa's problem is that is that Coker is suspended for the bowl game. Their other problem is that their #2 rusher, De'Andre Johnson, netted just 79 yards all season. Problem #3 is that #3 back Mika'il McCall is suspended, too. And Iowa's final problem is that the Oklahoma rush defense is pretty solid. We'd expect Iowa to have only about 115 yards even if Coker were playing; without him, they might be under 100. The Hawkeyes have a way of pulling running backs out of thin air, so you never know.

Iowa passing offense: #46	Oklahoma passing defense: #43   per att: #20
Iowa interceptions thrown ranking: #35	Oklahoma interceptions picked ranking: #26
Iowa quarterback protection rank: #82	Oklahoma pass rush rank: #5

James Vanderberg has been a pretty good replacement for Ricky Stanzi in his first year as a starter. He has 2,806 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions. A big reason for the fairly smooth transition is leading receiver Marvin McNutt, who has 1,269 yards and 12 touchdown catches; look for McNutt and Keenan Davis (637 yards) to have big games against Oklahoma as the Hawks turn to the pass in Coker's absence. Oklahoma's pass defense is wrongly maligned because some great quarterbacks (such as Seth Doege, Robert Griffin, and Brandon Weeden) have shredded them, and they rank 83rd in raw pass yards yielded. But correct for the great passing offenses they've faced and they're a mediocre #43, and #20 on a per-attempt basis. Iowa should have around 230 passing yards under normal circumstances, but with Coker gone they'll probably throw more and gain more than that.

But throwing more might not pay big dividends. While Oklahoma will probably have just one interception on Vanderberg, they'll probably have about 4 sacks. Vanderberg's been dropped 26 times this year on just 360 attempts (over 7%). Oklahoma's pass rush is potent, registering 37 sacks. Frank Alexander has 8.5 of those; Ronnell Lewis, who may miss the game, has 5.5. But there are plenty of others to pick up the slack, and if Iowa throws a lot look for the Sooners to bring the pressure.

 

Oklahoma's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (8)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (3) to losing teams (1)

1. Tulsa  47-14
2. @ Florida St  23-13
3. Missouri  38-28
4. Ball St  62-6
5. = Texas  55-17
6. @ Kansas  47-17
7. Texas Tech  38-41
8. @ #13 Kansas St  58-17
9. Texas A&M  41-25
10. @ #15 Baylor  38-45
11. Iowa St  26-6
12. @ #3 Oklahoma St  10-44

Though they started the year #1 in the AP poll, Oklahoma's early-season games were a bit disappointing at the time. They crushed Tulsa but the Golden Hurricane lost just as badly to other top-tier teams. They beat high-ranked FSU in a sloppy game but the Seminoles lost their next two games, diminishing that win. Missouri had several losses by mid-season and gave the Sooners a good test.

But in retrospect, Oklahoma beat five bowl-eligible teams in a row—even Ball State finished 6-6—and by the time they beat Texas 55-17, no one was doubting how good they were. They struggled with Kansas in the first half, but that was dismissed as a fluke.

But they lost to Texas Tech, a loss compounded by the Red Raiders' subsequent terrible performance and 5-7 finish. In their last five games Oklahoma blew apart Kansas State and beat two more bowl teams but fell to Baylor and were oblitterated by Oklahoma State. In the end they can claim wins over a stunning 8 bowl teams out of 9 wins, but show a clear vulnerability to good passing teams. And on offense, a stair-step decline in performance over the last 5 games that coincides with the loss of key receiver Ryan Broyles.

Iowa's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

1. Tennessee Tech  34-7
2. @ Iowa St  41-44 3OT
3. Pittsburgh  31-27
4. Louisiana-Monroe  45-17
5. @ #23 Penn State  3-13
6. Northwestern  41-31
7. Indiana  45-24
8. @ Minnesota  21-22
9. #11 Michigan  24-16
10. #17 Michigan St  21-37
11. @ Purdue  31-21
12. @ #16 Nebraska  7-20

Iowa wasn't a great team in 2011, but they had an easy schedule and therefore an opportunity to have a very good record. In the end, though, 7-5 is roughly what they deserved.

The triple overtime loss to rival Iowa State was seen as a big upset at the time, but the Cyclones are bowl-bound after competing in the nation's toughest top-to-bottom conference. The Hawkeyes lost to Penn State who went on to be a top 25 team, and beat bowl-bound Northwestern. The loss to 3-9 Minnesota was a clear upset, but so was the win over 10-2 Michigan. Their last three games went to form, losing to top 25 Michigan State and Nebraska, and beating 6-6 Purdue. In the end, other than the Minnesota and Michigan aberrations, Iowa lost to good teams and beat the bad ones, and went 3-1 against 6-6 squads. That's about what a 7-5 team should do.

In terms of performance, even though their year seemed to be up-and-down, there was quite a bit of consistency. In retrospect, they played about the way they should have against Iowa State and Penn State. The Minnesota loss was only slightly below par and the Michigan win was just above it. On offense they did have some duds: 3 points against Penn State, 21 against Minnesota, and 7 vs. Nebraska. What those teams have in common, surprisingly, is good pass defense.

Key Injuries

Both teams are missing key offensive players. Though Oklahoma has gone several games without Ryan Broyles, they are clearly worse without him, and #3 receiver Jaz Reynolds will probably miss the game, too. Iowa's leading rusher Marcus Coker is suspended. On defense, Oklahoma defensive lineman Ronnell Lewis is probably out due to academics.

Psychology/Motivation

• Oklahoma's season: -1 win;  Iowa's season: +0 wins
• Oklahoma's momentum: -3 wins; Iowa's momentum: -1 win
• Oklahoma won final game: NO; Iowa won final game: NO
• Oklahoma glad to be there? NO; Iowa glad to be there: maybe
• Oklahoma coaching situation: stable; Iowa coaching situation: stable

Both teams had seasons below their expectations. Iowa thought they were a very good team and ended up good to mediocre. Oklahoma thought they were a national title contender, and ended up an also-ran. Both teams lost their last game in depressing fashion.

Oklahoma fell farther, faster however. And they're the ranked team playing a team with a worse record. Iowa's not ecstatic about this bowl game, having been here last year, but they pretty much expected it while Oklahoma was looking at the Fiesta Bowl before their last game. Bobby Stoops would be wise to tell his team to treat this game as the first game of next season, not the final game of a disappointing 2011.

I wouldn't say Iowa has a motivational advantage, but they certainly have less of a disadvantage. Oklahoma has nothing to win by playing this game. And Iowa has a history of doing well in bowl games under Kirk Ferentz, particularly when they're underdogs.

Final analysis

Oklahoma has a lot of reason to be unmotivated for this game. They've been in BCS bowl games for four out of the last five years. They're playing a team that's "beneath" them. And they ended the season on a very bad note.

But coach Bobby Stoops won't let his team overlook Iowa. He played for the Hawkeyes, and that alone gives a coach a sense of urgency. He knows Iowa can upset teams, and that being a big favorite is often a recipe for disaster. He'll do his best to have the team prepared and not overconfident. That said, there's going to be some effect; he can't convince his team that this is an important game in Oklahoma's football history.

Both teams are missing a player crucial to their success this year. Oklahoma is without superstar receiver Ryan Broyles and Iowa will not have leading rusher Marcus Coker.

Iowa's been in this situation before, in fact, just last year at this same bowl they were without their leading rusher (and leading receiver). Coker was actually the breakout star of that game; will Iowa discover a new talent this year? Probably not; Coker had already gained several hundreds yards at the time, while Iowa's #2 rusher has just 79 yards on the season. The Hawkeye offense rushes well whoever carries the ball, so they won't collapse, but replacing Coker won't be easy. In the end, however, Iowa's offense just isn't that productive, period, so they have less to lose. It could mean that they pass more, which is probably a good idea against Oklahoma's defense.

Now to Ryan Broyles. On offense, Oklahoma's decline over the last five games is disturbing. The game-by-game decline is probably a fluke, but the actual reduction in performance is not. After their great game against Kansas State, Broyles was hurt against Texas A&M and lost for the season. They still performed well that game but the next three were among their least productive. We don't see the "slide" progressing (i.e., they won't play worse than they did against Oklahoma State), but the "slump" probably will continue without him, meaning they'll score a lot fewer points than their season average—as many as 20 fewer. With Jaz Reynolds probably out, too, and Oklahoma unmotivated, that reduction is reinforced.

Oklahoma's vulnerability on defense is the passing game. Look at the teams they beat: 8 out of 9 were outside the top 40 in adjusted passing yards per game. Texas A&M was #20. The teams that beat them were #3 Oklahoma State, #4 Baylor, and #7 Texas Tech. Oklahoma would have a tough time against any team with a top ten passing attack. Iowa is just #46 in passing offense, the same general ranking as many of the teams Oklahoma dispatched easily. The Hawkeyes will pass more often due to Coker's loss, but it's doubtful they can have the success of a top ten passing team against Oklahoma's defense.

So we have a situation where Oklahoma scores a lot less due to Broyles' absence, and general ennui; Iowa moves the ball less effectively due to Coker's absence; and Iowa passes a lot more for that same reason, with limited success. We still see the Sooners prevailing, but not in a dominant fashion. Iowa will have a chance up to the end to pull off the upset.

Prediction:  Oklahoma 21, Iowa 17

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

Kellen Moore gets 50th win in Las Vegas Bowl; final score: Boise State 56, Arizona State 24

Kellen Moore extended his NCAA record for most wins from 49 to 50 as Boise State piled on the points against hapless Arizona State, winning the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas 56-24.

Moore's two interceptions and a lost fumble made this far from his best game, but it was more like a send-off exhibition than a real contest due to the mismatch. ASU came into the game 6-6, Boise State 11-1.

And it was a mismatch from the start. Doug Martin took the opening kickoff back 100 yards for a score, and Moore hit Tyler Shoemaker and Matt Miller for touchdown passes to take a 21-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter.

Miller had a touchdown strike of his own before halftime, and Boise led 28-3 at the break.

Arizona State had their big play early in the 3rd quarter as Rashad Ross returned the 2nd half kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown. The Sun Devils had a chance to make a game of it, but Brock Osweiller was intercepted for a 100-yard touchdown return and instead of becoming 28-17, it was 35-10.

Boise scored twice early in the 4th quarter, first on a D.J. Harper run, then on a fumble return by Travis Stanaway, and the game was a complete blowout at 49-10. Doug Martin (151 yards) scored again for the Broncos in-between a couple of inconsequential Osweiler TD tosses—one of them to Gerell Robinson, who had a whopping 241 receiving yards in a losing effort.

Boise State finished the season at 12-1, just like they did in 2010. And their only defeat was by one point, to TCU—same as the 2008 season. The Broncos will likely remain at #4 in the final SportsRatings Top 25, behind LSU, Alabama, and the winner of Oklahoma State/Stanford. Arizona State falls to 6-7, with Dennis Erickson losing his last five outings as the Sun Devils coach.

More previews and results: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Music City Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest

Friday, December 30: Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN at 6:40 pm eastern

Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6)

Yep, gotta review it for completeness' sake.

Vegas line/spread: Mississippi State by 7 (over/under 48)

The Bulldogs are a 1-touchdown favorite in most listings, though some have inched down to 6 1/2 by game day. Pre-season, it would have been much higher.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Miss St	72%	57%
Wake Forest	28%	43%

The game performance ratings for Mississippi State are much better than Wake Forest's; they're #40 in our Strength Power Rating, while Wake is #68.

Strength Power Rating:   Miss St 30, Wake Forest 20    Tempo-free:   Miss St 28, Wake Forest 19

Mississippi State's offense isn't even as good as Wake Forest's, but their adjusted scoring defense ranks #18 to the Deacons' #77, giving them a 10 point spread according to our computer rating. The pace for the game will probably be a bit slower than normal which could take a bit off the score.

Yardage analysis:   Miss St 28, Wake Forest 24     per attempt:   Miss St 29, Wake Forest 20

By from-scrimmage yardage alone (adjusted for opponents), the spread narrow to four points. Here Mississippi State is only 64th (in yardage differential) but Wake is a dismal #81. Mississippi State's poor offense (#86) will be met by Wake's crappy defense (#92). The other matchup (Wake's #58 offense vs. the Bulldogs' #43 defense) is a bit better. Both teams should have between 350 and 400 yards, with Mississippi State having around a 30 yard advantage.

Per-attempt, Mississippi State is again nearly a 10-point favorite.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Miss St 28, Wake Forest 23

We don't expect this game to turn on turnovers, as there shouldn't be too many, maybe 1 or 2 total. Neither team fumbles a lot nor recovers many fumbles, and since those are so unpredictable anyway we ignore them. Mississippi State has a small advantage in projected interceptions, and another in the kickoff return game, to add up to a point or so. If either team does dominate in the turnover department they have a huge advantage, but we don't expect that.

When Miss St has the ball

Miss St rushing offense: #49

Wake Forest rushing defense: #88

Vic Ballard has had somewhat of an off year; despite 1,009 yards he had only 8 touchdowns, down from 19 last season. LaDarius Perkins adds 407 and QB Chris Relf another 311, but Relf might not start in the bowl game and Tyler Russell only has 45 net yards. They don't need great backs to make gains against Wake Forest and should have around 190 yards.

Miss St passing offense: #87	Wake Forest passing defense: #87   per att: #62
Miss St interceptions thrown ranking: #37	Wake Forest interceptions picked ranking: #87
Miss St quarterback protection rank: #77	Wake Forest pass rush rank: #117

Mississippi State has used two quarterbacks and the starter for the bowl isn't clear. Both Chris Relf and Tyler Russell have just over 1,000 passing yards. Relf's completion percentage (60) is better than Russell's (53%) but Russell's yard's per attempt (8.0) dwarfs Relf's (6.3) and his 8:4 TD:int ratio is better, too (Relf has 9 TDs, 7 ints). The team has 9 100+ yard pass catchers with no runaway superstar. Russell is likely to start the game at least. Wake Forest's pass defense will give either QB lots of opportunity and together the two should have over 200 yards.

There probably won't be a lot of threat from big defensive plays on Wake Forest's part. As a team they don't intercept a lot of passes (11, against INT-prone teams)—but MSU doesn't want to throw near Josh Bush who has 6 picks. We call it 50/50 as to whether he gets one this game. The Deacons probably get one sack, but only because Mississippi State's protection is bad (24 sacks given up), not because their pass rush is effective at all (they've managed just 10 this season).

When Wake Forest has the ball

Wake Forest rushing offense: #86

Miss St rushing defense: #55

The Deacon running game is poor; Brandon Pendergrass leads the team with 750 yards and #2 Josh Harris has 432. Hurting their rushing stats are the 28 sacks QB Tanner Price has suffered for 210 yards. The Bulldog rush defense isn't much better than average, but it's enough to limit the Demon Deacons to around 120 yards after sacks are figured in.

Wake Forest passing offense: #34	Miss St passing defense: #33   per att: #13
Wake Forest interceptions thrown ranking: #32	Miss St interceptions picked ranking: #62
Wake Forest quarterback protection rank: #83	Miss St pass rush rank: #87

Wake Forest's offense lives by the pass, and Tanner Price has done a good job of keeping them alive in a lot of games. Price has 2,803 passing yards and 20 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions. Much credit should go to Chris Givens (1,276 yards, 9 TDs) and Michael Campanaro (705 yards), his best targets. Mississippi State's pass defense is very sound and given their great per-attempt rating they could win the battle. But Wake has nothing else and they'll keep passing, probably netting 240 yards or so.

With just 8 total interceptions thrown, Wake likely won't suffer more than one in the bowl, possibly none. Their problem is pass protection. Luckily Mississippi State doesn't have a fearsome pass rush, so Price might only get dropped a typical two times by the Bulldogs.

 

Mississippi State's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

1. @ Memphis  59-14
2. @ Auburn  34-41
3. #1 LSU  6-19
4. Louisiana Tech  26-20 OT
   
5. @ #22 Georgia  10-24
6. @ UAB  21-3
7. #10 South Carolina  12-14
8. @ Kentucky  28-16
9. Tennessee-Martin  55-17
10. #2 Alabama  7-24
11. @ #6 Arkansas  17-44
12. Mississippi  31-3

It was a bad year to be a mediocre team in the SEC, particularly with Mississippi State's schedule. Playing in the West, they knew they'd face LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas, but they might have avoided Georgia and South Carolina. And they were supposed to be good enough to beat Auburn. Those were their six losses, five to top 25 teams.

The rest of their schedule was just the opposite. No winning teams except for Louisiana Tech, whom they needed overtime to beat. And the Bulldogs weren't particularly dominant over 3-9 Alabama-Birmingham, though they did a good job with Memphis and I-AA Tennessee-Martin.

The team played to the center of its schedule, worse than the good teams by a lot, better than the bad teams by quite a bit, but their overall performance level was pretty consistent, even as the offensive and defensive performances fluctuated.

Wake Forest's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)

1. @ Syracuse  29-36 OT
   
2. North Carolina St  34-27
3. Gardner-Webb  48-5
4. @ Boston College  27-19
5. Florida St  35-30
6. #19 Virginia Tech  17-38
7. @ Duke  24-23
8. @ North Carolina  24-49
9. Notre Dame  17-24
10. @ #18 Clemson  28-31
11. Maryland  31-10
12. Vanderbilt  7-41

The Demon Deacons started the year with an unpleasant overtime loss to 5-7 Syracuse and ended it with a crushing defeat to Vanderbilt. In-between there were ups and downs; most of the former came early, the latter, late.

Wake Forest's offense was rolling early in the year as they beat N.C. State and even Florida State, though the latter was as much due to FSU's emotional slump after losing to Oklahoma and Clemson. The Deacons played poorly against Virginia Tech and worse against North Carolina but recovered somewhat to play Notre Dame and Clemson tough. They clobbered Maryland and seemed to be on a roll when the bottom fell out against Vanderbilt.

Key Injuries

Wake's #2 rusher Josh Harris hasn't been 100% for months, but the time off should help allow him to play in the bowl.

Psychology/Motivation

• Miss St's season: -2 wins;  Wake Forest's season: +3 wins
• Miss St's momentum: +0 wins; Wake Forest's momentum: -2 wins
• Miss St won final game: yes; Wake Forest won final game: NO
• Miss St glad to be there? maybe; Wake Forest glad to be there: yes
• Miss St coaching situation: stable; Wake Forest coaching situation: stable

I hope these teams are more excited about this bowl game than we are. Wake Forest did a lot better this year (6-6) than last year (3-9) and had some good wins (and good near-wins). Mississippi State's season has been mostly a downer as they didn't beat any of the teams they really wanted to; I doubt they impressed themselves with the overtime win vs. Louisiana Tech. They did beat rival Mississippi 31-3, but there's the danger that that game is more important than this one is. Wake Forest's comeback season glow had to be tempered a bit, too, by their final 41-7 drubbing by Vandy, part of a 1-4 collapse after a 5-2 start.

Final analysis

If one team managed to get hyped up over this game, they could blow the other one out. We just don't see which one that would be, though we'd expect Wake Forest, having gone bowl-less recently, might be able to pump themselves up. Mississippi State? We doubt it. But that's too much speculation to worry about.

Mississippi State is probably better, and probably should win the game. Without enthusiasm on their part, I don't see them running away with it nor even winning all that comfortably, just punching away till they've done their job.

When either team is passing, the other team's defense is a good match for it. But in both cases, the offense should be able to move the ball since interceptions and sacks aren't seen as a major threat.

That's what Wake will have to do because they probably won't get a lot of ground production. Mississippi State, on the other hand, can mix it up a bit if they want, and that could be the difference.

They won't run away with it, because Wake Forest won't go away and their passing game will have the chance to bring them back at any time. We'll go with the numbers from the per-game yardage projection and pick the Bulldogs in a slow, systematic slog.

Prediction:  Mississippi State 28, Wake Forest 24

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Pinstripe Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Rutgers vs. Iowa State

Friday, December 30: Pinstripe Bowl in New York, NY at 3:20 pm eastern

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (6-6)

This one's not high on most people's list of must-see bowl games, let's be honest.

Vegas line/spread: Rutgers by 1 (over/under 45)

The spread was Rutgers by 1.5 a week ago, but now is down to 1 at the majority of places, some list the game as pick 'em, or Iowa State as the favorite.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Rutgers	53.7%	50%
Iowa State	46.3%	50%

Iowa State outranks Rutgers in our power ratings, but not by much. Giving Rutgers home field advantage (for playing next door while Iowa State flies in from 1,000 miles away) makes them a slight favorite both straight up and 50/50 against the spread (which is a moving target the day of the game anyway).

Strength Power Rating:   Rutgers 19, Iowa State 17    Tempo-free:   Rutgers 21, Iowa State 17

With home field advantage added, Rutgers is about a 2 point favorite. Scoring should be low, as both teams play good defense (ranking #27 and #25) and questionable offenses (#75 and #77). Remarkably, scoring is low even though they both play uptempo games with more drives than average. That is, their offenses are even worse than their scoring implies, and defenses even better. There will probably be about 30 drives during the game but still, not a lot of points.

Yardage analysis:   Iowa State 21, Rutgers 20     per attempt:   Iowa State 20, Rutgers 14

There isn't much change when you ignore game scores and look only at yardage—the teams are still very close. In fact, Iowa State is projected to have only a 6-yard advantage in total yards, which is not enough for a meaningful difference in scoring; we give the Cyclones an extra point to show who finishes ahead, but really it's predicting an overtime game.

On a per-play basis, Iowa State has a meaningful advantage. Both teams might average only 5.8 yards per pass attempt, but the Cyclones could have a full yard advantage per rushing attempt. If that happens they should win by around a touchdown.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Rutgers 22, Iowa State 20

We start with the yardage projection—which is really 20 to 20—and try to account for the probability of turnovers and return yards. Turnovers might be a big part of this game, and we project around 6 total during the game. Fumbles are so unpredictable we don't address them, but there should be around 3 picks during the game, and Iowa State has a small theoretical advantage. Only about 1/2 point's worth, though.

Rutgers, however, could make kick returns the difference in the game. Jeremy Deering is #4 in kick return yardage with one touchdown return, and Iowa State gave up a punt return for a touchdown. Between better field position and the chance for big returns, Rutgers gains over 2 points from our analysis, and that's the entire margin.

When Rutgers has the ball

Rutgers rushing offense: #102

Iowa State rushing defense: #79

Rutgers, former home of Ray Rice, today can't run the ball very well, with Jawan Jamison the leader with 766 yards and no one else over 200 yards. Further, Jamison could be hobbled by an ankle injury in Rutgers' last game. Iowa State's rushing defense isn't great but Rutgers should have only 130-some yards.

Rutgers passing offense: #66	Iowa State passing defense: #28   per att: #31
Rutgers interceptions thrown ranking: #107	Iowa State interceptions picked ranking: #24
Rutgers quarterback protection rank: #90	Iowa State pass rush rank: #75

The Scarlet Knights have used two quarterbacks this year, Gary Nova and Chas Dodd. They combined, roughly evenly, for almost 3,000 yards, 20 TDs, and 16 interceptions. They both relied heavily on Mohamed Sanu, who had 109 receptions for 1,144 yards. The Cyclone pass defense is pretty solid; Rutgers might manage just over 200 yards through the air.

It could be less than that, though, due to how interception-prone both quarterbacks for Rutgers are. The Cyclones have picked off 11 passes against some very good QBs, and will probably have 1 or 2 more during the game. Rutgers has improved a lot from last year in quarterback protection—when Dodd was dropped an astounding 45 times, with 61 sacks total—but they still aren't great. Dodd and Nova have been sacked 15 times each and will probably suffer about one each if they split time.

When Iowa State has the ball

Iowa State rushing offense: #24

Rutgers rushing defense: #32

Iowa State's offense is the running game, as both Cyclone quarterbacks have run the ball a lot. Top back James White has 701 yards and 8 touchdowns, and QBs Steele Jantz and Jared Barnett combined for over 600. Rutgers' defense is adequate and the 'Clones should have around 160 yards on the ground.

Iowa State passing offense: #72	Rutgers passing defense: #35   per att: #56
Iowa State interceptions thrown ranking: #48	Rutgers interceptions picked ranking: #7
Iowa State quarterback protection rank: #50	Rutgers pass rush rank: #51

Steele Jantz started the first half of the season and Jared Barnett took over for the second but neither was a big passer by any means. Jantz completed 54%, Barnett 51%, for a combined 2,500 yards or so, 16 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. With the passing game futile anyway, Barnett kept the job due to better running. Rutgers' D should limit the air yards to around 180.

Like Rutgers, both the Cyclone quarterbacks are somewhat interception-prone, Barnett less so than Jantz. But the Scarlet Knights have 17 picks on the year, 5 from Duron Harmon, and should have 1 or 2 more in the game. They might also have a couple of sacks, as their average pass rush meets Iowa State's average protection. However, Barnett has just half the sacks Jantz does so that threat is probably reduced.

 

Rutgers's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)

1. N.C. Central  48-0
2. @ North Carolina  22-24
3. Ohio U.  38-26
4. @ Syracuse  19-16 OT
5. Pittsburgh  34-10
6. Navy  21-20
7. @ Louisville  14-16
8. #25 West Virginia  31-41
9. South Florida  20-17 OT
10. = Army  27-12
11. Cincinnati  20-3
12. @ Connecticut  22-40

The first half of Rutgers' season was pretty successful, a 5-1 record and only a 2-point loss to North Carolina. But like every Big East team does at some time during the season, they fell off the rails with two straight losses.

Beating Cincinnati put them back in the mix for a BCS bowl, one of about half the teams in the conference still eligible to win it, but a stunning loss to UConn ended that hope.

Rutgers' offense was pretty much pathetic the whole season, even with two overtime games to goose their point totals a bit. The defense was good overall but erratic. Case in point: holding Cincy to 3 points? Astounding. Allowing UConn 40 points? Awful.

Their overall game performances concentrated around the "average" mark with two bumps, their 34-10 win over Pitt and the 20-3 win over Cincinnati, and one terrible game at the end.

Iowa State's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

1. Northern Iowa  20-19
2. Iowa  44-41 3OT
3. @ Connecticut  24-20
4. Texas  14-37
5. @ #15 Baylor  26-49
6. @ Missouri  17-52
7. Texas A&M  17-33
8. @ Texas Tech  41-7
9. Kansas  13-10
10. #3 Oklahoma St  37-31 2OT
11. @ #21 Oklahoma  6-26
12. @ #13 Kansas St  23-30

If Rutgers played average football overall with two good games, Iowa State generally played slightly below average but had two great games.

The first few games were very tentative, and all three were close wins. The Cyclones are lucky there weren't 0-3 at the start.

The 41-7 win over Texas Tech and the stunning upset of #3 Oklahoma State were the high points, and both came in the 2nd half of the season. In general, the defense in the last 6 games was great, with every performance rating higher than each performance in their first 6. Offensively they were mostly a bust, and a few of the scores above are misleading: they scored only 24 in regulation against Iowa and Oklahoma State, not 44 and 37 which includes overtime totals (the charts reflect the lower values).

The team's biggest wins came with Barnett at QB, but their added success seems more related to the improvement in the defense than anything the offense did, however. Though Barnett led them to score 41 against Texas Tech, he also started the Kansas game where the Cyclones managed just 13.

Though the Cyclones lost their last two games, both were to ranked teams and they played well. They didn't lose to a non-bowl team this year, and even beat UConn, the only common opponent with Rutgers, on the road.

Key Injuries

Both teams have minor running back issues. Rutgers' top rusher Jamison is expected to play despite an ankle injury suffered against UConn. Iowa State's leading rusher James White has a shoulder injury but has been playing.

Psychology/Motivation

• Rutgers's season: +4 wins;  Iowa State's season: +1 wins
• Rutgers's momentum: -2 wins; Iowa State's momentum: +0 wins
• Rutgers won final game: NO; Iowa State won final game: NO
• Rutgers glad to be there? yes; Iowa State glad to be there: yes
• Rutgers coaching situation: stable; Iowa State coaching situation: stable

Though neither team is probably ecstatic about this bowl game, neither team went to a bowl last year so they should be somewhat happy about the turnaround. Rutgers was just 4-8 last year, the Cyclones 5-7. The Scarlet Knights lost some momentum after starting 5-1, and lost their final game. Iowa State lost their final 2 games. It looks like a draw as far as motivation goes.

Final analysis

This is close call, like many games this bowl season. Iowa State might have a slight advantage in team strength, but that's overcome by Rutgers essentially having a home game.

Both teams play good defense; neither team has a good offense. The Cyclones can run the ball pretty well, but Rutgers' defense can slow them down. Rutgers' offense isn't much of a threat in return either. That's the recipe for a dull, low-scoring game.

The kicking game isn't much help. Rutgers' San San Te has made only 18 of 28 attempts, while Iowa State's Zach Guyer has only attempted 12 (making 9).

Two things could amp up the scoring. One is turnovers, which could lead to a lot of points depending on where they happen (or kill scoring, if near the goal line). There should be plenty of those during the game, and the team that wins that battle probably wins the game. There's also overtime. Both teams have been in two overtime games this year, and with this game projected to be so close, it could happen again. That alone could double the score if it goes two or three overtime periods.

We give the slight edge to Iowa State. They played in a tough conference, as the Big Twelve was the best from top to bottom this year. The Big East was its usual, parity-ridden mess. The Cyclones beat UConn who crushed Rutgers in their last game. And Iowa State beat Oklahoma State, something Rutgers couldn't imagine doing. They Cyclone defense has really been something in the second half of the season. We see a close game, maybe overtime, with Rutgers failing to make a field goal at some point being the difference.

Prediction:  Iowa State 17, Rutgers 14

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Poinsettia Bowl Results - Final Score: TCU 31, Louisiana Tech 24

A finally-motivated TCU rallied past a determined Louisiana Tech in the second half, winning the Poinsettia Bowl 31-24.

The #12 Horned Frogs were two spots away in the BCS rankings from an automatic BCS bowl bid, but had to settle for playing the Bulldogs in San Diego. They got everything they bargained for in return, as the hard-fought game was tied 10-10 at the half.

The teams traded field goals before Colby Cameron hit Quinton Patton for the game's first touchdown, giving Louisiana Tech a 10-7 lead. TCU responded just before halftime with a 7-yard Ed Wesley run.

The Horned Frogs appeared to take control early in the 3rd quarter as Matthew Tucker made it 17-10 on a 1-yard run. But the Bulldogs didn't quit, scoring on their next drive; Hunter Lee ran it in from 2 yards out.

Later they intercepted Casey Pachall and after three plays Cameron connected with Myles White for a 61 yard touchdown and a 24-17 lead.

TCU handled things by chipping away at Louisiana Tech's defense on a 10 minute touchdown drive aided by a pass interference call. Luke Shivers ran it in from the 1 yard line, fumbling after he'd crossed the goal line according to the officials. The game was tied at 24.

The Horned Frog defense held and Pachell found Skye Dawson for 42 yards and the winning touchdown with minutes left. TCU's defense held again and they ran out the clock.

TCU finishes 11-2, their seventh 11+ win season in the last nine years. Louisiana Tech fell to 8-5 as coach Sonny Dykes had his contract extended before the game.

More previews and results: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

2011 Armed Forces Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: BYU vs. Tulsa

Friday, December 30: Armed Forces Bowl in Dallas, TX at Noon eastern

Brigham Young Cougars (9-3) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4)

Two teams that faltered early and redeemed their seasons meet to see who ends the season on a positive note.

Vegas line/spread: BYU by 1 1/2 (over/under 57.5)

BYU is a slight favorite; the line has moved down a bit from 2 1/2 to 1 1/2 points, while the over/under has increased from 55.5.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
BYU	48.7%	43%
Tulsa	51.3%	57%

Though BYU is the favorite by the oddsmakers, Tulsa outranks the Cougars in the Strength Power Rating, #38 to #50. Correspondingly, Tulsa is a slight favorite in the game-comparison system—though it's pretty narrow for a 12-ranking-spot difference. The reason is BYU's consistency since the mid-season, while Tulsa has a few very good games and several below-average ones that almost tilt the majority to the Cougars. Against the spread, Tulsa has a bit more leeway.

Strength Power Rating:   Tulsa 30, BYU 27    Tempo-free:   BYU 29, Tulsa 29

Tulsa is a 3 point favorite with our computers. No home field advantage is given though Tulsa plays fairly close to home; BYU is not terribly far away. Tulsa's advantage is on offense where they are #28 (BYU #52), though BYU's defense is a bit better (#43 to #58).

When tempo is "removed", BYU has a miniscule edge but the estimate is essentially a tie. Tulsa plays very fast, and BYU ends up playing a lot slower; Tulsa's offense is overrated due to their speed, and BYU's underrated.

Yardage analysis:   BYU 31, Tulsa 27     per attempt:   Tulsa 28, BYU 21

Using per-game yardage adjusted for opposition, BYU has the edge; they're #25 in adjusted yardage differential while Tulsa is #47. The offenses are much closer than they are in scoring: Tulsa is #26 but BYU is 42nd. The big difference now is on defense where the Cougars are #18, the Hurricane #72. BYU doesn't give up a lot of yards but yields quite a few points; it's not immediately clear why as their red zone defense is good as is their 3rd down defense. In any case, BYU comes out 40 total yards ahead in our projection.

On a per-play basis Tulsa is the winner; they should average around 4.7 yards per carry on the ground to just 3.2 for BYU, offsetting the Cougars' slight per-attempt passing advantage.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   BYU 32, Tulsa 27

Both teams have a decent chance of getting multiple interception, but by the odds Tulsa is more likely to win that battle. It's only worth around a point as the advantage is small and theoretical. As we'll see later, Tulsa should really be given a bigger advantage in this department if you look at each team's quarterback stats.

BYU has the edge on kick returns, however. Tulsa is unlikely to score on big returns (they are without Demaris Johnson, as they have been all season). BYU has a couple of touchdown returns, J.D. Falslev and Cody Hoffman having one each. The better field position that should result, and chance of a big play (Tulsa has average coverage) offsets Tulsa's turnover advantage and (barely) adds a point to BYU's projection.

When BYU has the ball

BYU rushing offense: #65

Tulsa rushing defense: #53

Five players for the Cougars rushed for over 250 yards, including J.J. Di Luigi and QB Riley Nelson. Due to their mostly poor schedule, they rank slightly below average. Tulsa's defense is slightly above average and should hold the Cougars to around 140 yards.

BYU passing offense: #35	Tulsa passing defense: #99   per att: #67
BYU interceptions thrown ranking: #100	Tulsa interceptions picked ranking: #21
BYU quarterback protection rank: #44	Tulsa pass rush rank: #29

Jake Heaps was the starter in the first five games but as they struggled he was replaced by Riley Nelson against Utah State, and he led them to victory. After that, Nelson lost only to TCU; Heaps returned against Idaho and New Mexico due to Nelson's injury, but Nelson started the final game. Heaps announced he was transferring, recently deciding on Kansas. He will not play in the bowl game.

For the full season, BYU was #35 but Nelson's numbers are a lot better than Heaps', with 16 TDs and 5 interceptions (Heaps had 9 and 8). So our estimate of 280 passing yards for BYU could be low, but note that Tulsa's pass defense is better than its per-game average shows.

Tulsa has some hope of slowing down the attack. As a team BYU is pretty interception-prone; Nelson and Heaps have combined for 13 (Nelson 5, Heaps 8) at about the same rate. Tulsa's Dexter McCoil and Milt Howell both have four picks; look for 1 or 2 more during the game. BYU's quarterback protection will be tested by Tulsa's decent pass rush, too. Tyrunn Walker has 8 sacks on the year, and he and his teammates should have at 2 more. Nelson is more sack-prone than Heaps, so two sacks might be a minimum.

When Tulsa has the ball

Tulsa rushing offense: #26

BYU rushing defense: #50

Tulsa has a powerful backfield duo: Ja'Terian Douglas and Trey Watts, who have 884 and 843 yards respectively. Douglas accomplished the feat in just 108 carries, for an astounding 8.2 ypc average. QB G.J. Kinne is 3rd with 405 net yards. These 2,000+ yards put the Hurricane on the borderline of the top 25 in adjusted rushing per game, much better than BYU's defense can claim. Tulsa should have around 180 yards.

Tulsa passing offense: #47	BYU passing defense: #12   per att: #17
Tulsa interceptions thrown ranking: #108	BYU interceptions picked ranking: #66
Tulsa quarterback protection rank: #16	BYU pass rush rank: #113

G.J. Kinne has thrown for 2,876 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2011 despite losing star receiver Demaris Johnson before the season began. Now his favorite targets are Willie Carter (868 yards) and Bryan Burnham (737) who combined for 15 TD catches. BYU's pass defense is fantastic, and might limit the Hurricane to around 200 yards.

By our adjusted interception rankings, BYU should pick off 1 pass, and possibly two on average. Kinne has been intercepted 12 times, but backup Kalen Henderson is responsible for another 4 picks in just 29 attempts. That makes the "team" stats worse; if Kinne plays the whole game then the interception estimate is too high. Maybe cut it to just one?

BYU doesn't really have much hope of getting relevant pressure on Kinne, who has been sacked just 12 times all year. Again, Henderson has been sacked 4 times skewing the sack ratings. The Cougars have 20 sacks against easy competition; Kinne is unlikely be sacked at all.

So while Tulsa might have more than 200 yards if they're safe from picks and sacks, but if Kinne gets hurt again and Henderson (4 sacks and 4 picks in 29 attempts?) has to play, things could get ugly.

 

BYU's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. @ Mississippi  14-13
2. @ Texas  16-17
3. Utah  10-54
4. Central Florida  24-17
5. Utah St  27-24
6. San Jose St  29-16
7. @ Oregon St  38-28
8. Idaho St  56-3
9. @ #12 TCU  28-38
10. Idaho  42-7
11. New Mexico St  42-7
12. @ Hawaii  41-20

BYU is very lucky they didn't start the year 0-5. They came back against Mississippi after being down 13-0, then lost to Texas after being up 13-0. The next game wasn't a contest as Utah demolished the Cougars  54-10 on their home turf.

After that shaky start the Cougars began to get some traction, starting with narrow wins over UCF and Utah State, the latter their only win over a bowl-bound team. They won three more before losing a fairly close game at TCU, then beat three more losing teams to finish a stealthy 9-3.

Since the Utah game the team's game ratings steadily improved; the offense improved a lot over the first six games and the defense was steady from the 4th game on. But the level of competition was poor in general, and the Cougars were just 1-2 against non-top-25 bowl teams.

The offense did a lot better in Nelson's five starts than in Heaps' six: 20 points better adjusted for opposition, and 12 points better than the offense's overall average.

Tulsa's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

1. @ #21 Oklahoma  14-47
2. @ Tulane  31-3
3. #3 Oklahoma St  33-59
4. @ #4 Boise St  21-41
5. North Texas  41-24
6. UAB  37-20
7. @ Rice  38-20
8. SMU  38-7
9. @ Central Florida  24-17
10. Marshall  59-17
11. @ UTEP  57-28
12. #12 Houston  16-48

Tulsa had a nightmare early schedule worse than any other team save perhaps Arizona. Starting with AP pre-season #1 Oklahoma, they followed a breather at Tulane with pre-season top ten Oklahoma State and Boise State. Predictably, they began the year 1-3 with losses of 33, 26, and 20 points.

Then it was Tulsa's turn to win by double-digits against North Texas, Alabama-Birmingham, Rice, and SMU. They had trouble at UCF but won, then beat Marshall 59-17 and UTEP 57-28, both games off the charts offensively. They were on a roll heading into the Houston game but the Cougars shut them down defensively while rolling up 48 points of their own, a fourth 20+ point loss to another top 25 team.

Key Injuries

Neither team has any new major injuries. Jake Heaps' transfer is effective immediately so he won't play in the bowl game.

Psychology/Motivation

• BYU's season: +3 wins;  Tulsa's season: -1 win
• BYU's momentum: +1 win; Tulsa's momentum: +2 wins
• BYU won final game: YES; Tulsa won final game: NO
• BYU glad to be there? yes; Tulsa glad to be there: yes
• BYU coaching situation: stable; Tulsa coaching situation: stable

BYU improved a lot over last year's 6-6, but with an easier schedule. Tulsa lost a win, but had a very tough schedule. Ultimately schedule doesn't matter; an improvement in record is an improvement, and a decline is a decline. Both teams did better in the 2nd half of the season.

BYU arguably played their best game of the season in the Hawaii road finale, while Tulsa played their worst. Again, schedule is a factor as Tulsa lost to Houston, but a 48-16 loss is still a downer

Are they glad to be there? Is the question. BYU was aligned with this bowl before the season started, so it's just where they expected to be. Tulsa knew that with their schedule, getting to a bowl game might not be guaranteed, so they should be reasonably pleased, too, after their 1-3 start.

Final analysis

This is a game with no clear favorite. Any number of bowl games are the kind that can "go either way" but normally there is a clear favorite by the oddsmakers and the stats; then the job is just to think about which team is more motivated and which possible scenario plays out.

But here we have the oddsmakers saying BYU, the Strength Power Rating saying Tulsa. The main per-game yardage analysis says BYU, the per-attempt projection says Tulsa. Tempo-free Strength projection calls it a tossup, the game-comparison system is very close to that.

There are no major injuries to give us a clue, and the psychology of the game seems to be about a draw, or at least impossible to predict.

On offense BYU should be able to pass the ball, but the threat of interceptions and sacks from Tulsa might mitigate that. Tulsa can probably run the ball, but passing will be tough.

BYU has improved slowly but surely and is a better team when Nelson plays QB. But they've been playing a soft schedule for the most part, with just one win over a bowl team and one game against a top 25 team. Tulsa has two wins over bowl teams and has played four games against top 25 teams.

Putting it simply, BYU hasn't defeated a team as good as Tulsa, and Tulsa hasn't defeated any team as good as BYU. Nor has either team lost to a team as BAD as their opponent in the Armed Forces Bowl.

It's a tough call, but BYU's play under Nelson has elevated them. Tulsa lost only to top 25 teams, but they lost by enough each time to make it clear it doesn't take a top 25 team to beat them. And their last loss had to be demoralizing, making their earlier run of success a bit flat. BYU closed with perhaps their strongest win, and if not, it was at least the level of their recent games, not a huge dropoff like Tulsa suffered. This doesn't mean Tulsa can't keep it close but we'll take BYU by a nose.

Prediction:  BYU 29, Tulsa 28

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.

Coach of the Year: Georgia's Mark Richt

There were many candidates for Coach of the Year in college football: Just today, Les Miles won the award from the AP. Mike Gundy of Oklahoma State has been mentioned, and Kansas State's Bill Snyder has done an incredible job at Kansas State. Louisiana-Lafayette's Mark Hudspeth helped the Ragin' Cajuns turn their team around from 3-9 to 9-3 in his first year.

But we're going with Mark Richt of Georgia.

It's not just because he led the team to a 10-3 record after a disappointing 6-7 season last year. That required some talent and perseverance, sure, but turnarounds are fairly common in prominent programs.

He certainly faced adversity, and most if it came from within—the fans and boosters that put him on the "hot seat" after last year's season, and kept him on it as Georgia started the season 0-2.

It was an indictment of modern college football and fan idiocy that Richt was ever in doubt. His record over the previous decade was incredible. Georgia had six 10+ win seasons in 10 years starting in 2001; the others were 8-4, 8-5, and 9-4, then last year's losing record where the Bulldogs were 6-6 before losing their bowl game.

That was enough for some fans to say Richt should be gone. A decade of prosperity, for them, could be wiped out by one disappointing season—a bowl season, even.

The team finished #22, #3, #7, #7, #10, #23, #2, and #23 from 2001 to 2008 in the final AP polls. Apparently two years outside the top 25 offsets eight straight top 25 finishes, including 5 top-10 finishes and two top-5 finishes.

Worse, the Bulldogs started this season 0-2. Never mind that the losses were to Boise State, who finished 11-1, and South Carolina, who ended up 10-2. Both opponents were top 12 teams at the time, and both finished in the top ten. Idiots don't take that kind of thing into consideration; they just see losses, get mad, and demand that someone lose their job for it.

When Georgia was 0-2, we wrote that we saw better times ahead and that Richt would keep his job after proving the haters wrong. We had Georgia favored in 9 of the 10 remaining games, and showed that there was a good chance the team would go 10-2, though 8-4 was probably most likely. Either way, a good season was still expected.

As it turned out, the Bulldogs won 10 straight games and even won their division in the SEC. They lost to LSU in the SEC title game, something I'm sure his detractors will use against him. There is no pleasing some people.

But Richt proved his worth to Georgia, as if he should have had anything to prove after a decade of consistent winning in the toughest conference in college football. The thing that prompted us to give him our blessing as Coach of the Year is the following, off-the-field story:

Richt was paying his assistants supplemental salary money out of his own pocket.

Yes, that is a minor NCAA violation. It also shows how much he cares about his staff and made sure they were fairly compensated. The details are interesting: Richt gave money to 15 coaches or non-coach staff members totalling around $64,000. Several times he did it when the University refused to give the person a raise. Many of them were refused bowl game bonuses by the University. He gave one fired coach $6,000 when his severance pay ran out.

The $64,000 question is, are we supposed to think these are real NCAA violations? Or do they speak for the coach's character? The latter makes more sense. I can't even start to have any indignation about this. NCAA violations deal with paying players, not coaches. The latter are professionals and are paid. Georgia didn't gain any advantage.

Perhaps Richt should have negotiated with the University a salary reduction with the difference going to the coaches in question, but given that Georgia was so stingy with those men, who's to say they would have followed through in distributing the money? That sounds like a red tape nightmare to me.

So he did what he thought he should do. He played Robin Hood with his own money. I think this is a refreshing story: a coach who thinks his own salary is too high relative to his coaching staff!

I wonder what the Richt haters will say about this one. While they were demanding his ouster for winning 10 games only 60% of the time, he was making sure his assistants were treated fairly, and he did so at his own expense.

Mark Richt is Coach of the Year for doing what was right even in the face of an idiotic outcry over his job performance. The fact that he turned the team around just seals the deal.

2011 Alamo Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Baylor vs. Washington

Thursday, December 29: Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, TX at 9:00 pm eastern

#15 Baylor Bears (9-3) vs. Washington Huskies (7-5)

This game is primarily of interest to college football fans due to the presence of Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III.

Vegas line/spread: Baylor by 9 1/2 (over/under 78.5)

One of the highest over/unders we've seen in a while is due to Baylor's explosive offense and porous defense, but the Bears are a solid favorite to win the shootout. The line remained basically the same during the week leading up to the game.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Baylor	78%	62%
Washington	22%	38%

Our game-comparison prediction system supports the idea that the Bears should win the game, more than 3/4 of the time. We even favor them solidly against the substantial point spread. Baylor ranks 19th in the Strength Power Rating, while Washington is far behind at #43.

Strength Power Rating:   Baylor 49, Washington 34    Tempo-free:   Baylor 48, Washington 38

Check out Baylor's adjusted scoring offense rank: #4 in the nation. Their defense? #92. Washington is skewed toward offense, too, but not as decidedly: they're #22 on offense, #75 on defense. So we have two top 25 offenses going up against two bottom 30 defense, and the score projection based on that yields a whopping 83 points. We give Baylor full home field advantage for playing in Texas and they come out a 15 point favorite.

The two teams actually average just a few drives fewer than normal, but that doesn't blunt the scoring in the tempo-free projection. In fact, Washington scores a bit more under this method, tightening the spread to 10 points (actually almost exactly 9 1/2, matching the line).

Yardage analysis:   Baylor 55, Washington 41     per attempt:   Baylor 51, Washington 41

Ok, now we're really talking points. By yardage, Baylor has the #1 offense in the nation, and the #107 defense (all yardages adjusted for opposition). Washington is #28 on offense, #49 on defense. That gives both teams very high yardage projections for the game, to the tune of nearly 600 for Baylor and almost 500 for Washington. Converting those values to a score projection, we get a total of nearly 100 points, and Baylor is a two-touchdown favorite. The per-attempt numbers yield a largely similar projection, but with a tighter 10-point spread.

Yardage + interceptions + kick returns:   Baylor 59, Washington 36

If a yardage advantage wasn't enough, Baylor is very clearly the favorite in the turnover game, at least when it comes to interceptions. Robert Griffin III has thrown only 6 this year while the Huskies have picked off just 10. It's not very likely they'll get even one. Meanwhile Baylor has 16 picks against a schedule of quarterbacks who are not interception-prone at all, while Washington has thrown 13. Baylor should have two picks if the game is an "average" one. That 2-0 advantage translates into an estimated 8 points—either on offense or defense, depending on where the pick is made. We add four to the Bears' yardage score estimate and subtract four from the Huskies. Kick returns are pretty much a wash in terms of chance for big plays affecting the game.

When Baylor has the ball

Baylor rushing offense: #16

Washington rushing defense: #65

Baylor's offense is more than Robert Griffin's passing. It's also his running! Actually, Baylor's key ground weapon is 240-lb. Terrance Ganaway, who has 1,347 yards and 16 touchdowns, great numbers that are lost in the Heisman hype of Griffin, who has 644 yards and 9 touchdowns of his own on the ground. Washington's rushing defense is average, and like most teams they'll have to pay a lot of attention to the passing game and figure out how to deal with Griffin's dual threat. Baylor might have around 225 rushing yards.

Baylor passing offense: #4	Washington passing defense: #40   per att: #55
Baylor interceptions thrown ranking: #5	Washington interceptions picked ranking: #90
Baylor quarterback protection rank: #66	Washington pass rush rank: #35

3,998 yards on 72.4% completions with 36 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions. An accurate, strong arm and a will to win. Running ability that sets up great passing—or is it the other way around? Give Griffin his due—and his Heisman, sure—but he's got some great receivers, such as: Kendall Wright (101 catches, 1,572 yards, 13 TDs), Terrance Williams (53 catches, 895 yards, 11 TDs), Tevin Reese (46, 811, 7), and Lenear Sampson (39, 547, 3). That adds up to the lion's share of Griffin's largesse, and while Washington has a decent pass defense they could give up 360 passing yards.

They don't have much hope of changing the game via interceptions. Even Griffin's 6 picks understates how well he protects the ball, as he's thrown 369 times and has faced defenses that are good at intercepting passes. Washington's total (10) overstates their effectiveness, too, as they've faced some teams that are easy to pick off (Arizona, Oregon State, and 2 vs. FCS Eastern Washington). Even getting one pick from Griffin would be a surprise.

Sacks are a different matter, and the only way the Huskies can hope to slow down Baylor's passing game. On a per-attempt basis Griffin's 23 sacks aren't awful, but those aren't great numbers either, especially for a mobile quarterback. Washington has 24 sacks on the year against good O-lines, so I'd expect at least 2 against Baylor.

When Washington has the ball

Washington rushing offense: #51

Baylor rushing defense: #95

Chris Polk was Washington's main offensive threat last year, and he had another great year in 2011 rushing for 1,341 yards and 11 touchdowns. Baylor's defense is not well-equipped to stop him, either. Most of Washington's expected 180+ ground yards will be Polk's.

Washington passing offense: #27	Baylor passing defense: #113   per att: #58
Washington interceptions thrown ranking: #101	Baylor interceptions picked ranking: #4
Washington quarterback protection rank: #89	Baylor pass rush rank: #52

Washington's Keith Price is no Griffin but he's a decent passer who has 29 touchdown throws of his own. He's completed 67% of his passes for 2,625 yards, spreading that out among seven players with 200+ yards. He should have a great game against Baylor, who gives up a ton of passing yardage. Interestingly their per-attempt ranking is respectable, but teams just like to pass on the Bears and Washington should have success, over 300 yards of it.

But though Baylor will give up a lot of yards, they should have some big plays to limit the damage. As we estimated before, it's likely they'll have 2 interceptions—if it's an average game. Those thing vary a lot, as you would expect. But the threat is always there, as the Bears have 16 picks while Washington has had 13 passes intercepted by teams that aren't ball-hawks in the aggregate. Baylor should also have luck with their pass rush, probably getting 2 or 3 sacks on Price who has suffered 26 so far this year.

 

Baylor's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. #12 TCU  50-48
2. S.F. Austin  48-0
3. Rice  56-31
4. @ #13 Kansas St  35-36
5. Iowa St  49-26
6. @ Texas A&M  28-55
7. @ #3 Oklahoma St  24-59
8. Missouri  42-39
9. @ Kansas  31-30 OT
   
10. #21 Oklahoma  45-38
11. = Texas Tech  66-42
12. Texas  48-24

Baylor's season had ups and downs that tracked Robert Griffin III's Heisman chances, and the team's strengths and weaknesses both ended up helping him.

Griffin's candidacy was established right out of the gate with the win over TCU. Baylor beat the Horned Frogs—who were undefeated in 2010—in a shootout where Griffin threw five touchdown passes and even had a key reception himself. After three games Griffin had more touchdown passes than incompletions and was at the top of most people's lists.

Two potential problems with his candidacy—the exact same ones that felled Denard Robinson in 2010—were injuries, and his team's defensive shortcomings. The former applied to Griffin as he missed almost all of 2009 due to injury; Dennis Dixon in 2007 is an example of a Heisman front-runner knocked out of contention.

The second issue became more important, as Baylor started losing games. They could score on anyone, but their defense couldn't stop anyone, and they lost to Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, giving up 36, 55, and 59 points along the way. With his team at 4-3, Griffin was essentially an afterthought in the Heisman race for many weeks. What kept him in was his strong performance even in losing; he had 9 touchdown passes against 4 interceptions in the three losses, with 1,201 passing yards.

And the team's weakness became a strength for Griffin in the end. Since the team gave up so many points, it forced the offense to try to win shootouts, and Griffin had to put up gaudy statistics that were absolutely necessary to his team's welfare. He wasn't padding his stats in the fourth quarter when he passed for 406 yards against Missouri, or ran for 103 yards on Kansas—that was required of him to get the two close wins, 42-39 over the Tigers, and 31-30 in overtime against the Jayhawks. And those were key games that kept his hopes alive: lose both of those—a fourth and fifth loss?—and he would have been out of the race.

But it was the Oklahoma game that put him right back up with the frontrunners. Griffin threw for 479 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 72 yards on the ground, and threw a beautiful last-minute game-winning touchdown pass that became a highlight reel play. The injury spectre reared its head when he left the Texas Tech game half-way through, but against Texas he ran and passed for 2 touchdowns each and sentiment had shifted toward him and away from the boring Andrew Luck. Griffin finished the year the nation's passing efficiency leader and the Heisman trophy winner.

Noting the team's charts, the offense had only one subpar game: the 24 points scored at Kansas in regulation. And their only good defensive performance was the shutout of Stephen F. Austin. Both stand out as complete aberrations for the rest of the team's efforts. Note also the off-the-charts finish to the season on offense, and the fact that the offense reaches its "peaks" in home games; this is significant for the bowl which is essentially being played in the Bears' backyard.

Washington's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

1. E. Washington  30-27
2. Hawaii  40-32
3. @ #16 Nebraska  38-51
4. California  31-23
5. @ Utah  31-14
6. Colorado  52-24
7. @ #5 Stanford  21-65
8. Arizona  42-31
9. #9 Oregon  17-34
10. @ #8 Southern Cal  17-40
11. @ Oregon St  21-38
12. Washington St  38-21

Washington had another good-but-not-great year as it digs itself out from the 0-12 season suffered in 2008.

The Huskies almost lost to Eastern Washington, the FCS champion last season, then edged Hawaii for a very tentative 2-0 start. Then Nebraska won the rubber match of the last two years in one of Washington's best offensive and worst defensive performances.

They notched their only two wins over bowl teams in the next games, beating Cal and then crushing Utah. After the Colorado win they were 5-1. Then the tough part of the schedule came, with three of four games against teams that finished in the top ten; they lost to Stanford (badly), Oregon (not so badly), and USC (badly again). Worse, they lost at Oregon State, though they finished with a win in the Apple Cup.

But they never showed they can beat a top 25 team, nor keep up in a shootout against a really good offense. Arizona (#24 scoring offense) is the best offense they beat. At the same time, all the teams that beat them had at least respectable defenses, even Oregon State (#42).

Key Injuries

Baylor is very healthy on the offensive side, but three defensive players have ankle problems and are questionable for the bowl game; the only key player in question is safety Chance Casey. They even added a player when QB Nick Florence burned his redshirt against Texas Tech. Washington is pretty much healthy across the board.

Psychology/Motivation

• Baylor's season: +2 wins;  Washington's season: +1 win
• Baylor's momentum: +1 win; Washington's momentum: -3 wins
• Baylor won final game: YES; Washington won final game: YES
• Baylor glad to be there? YES; Washington glad to be there: maybe
• Baylor coaching situation: stable; Washington coaching situation: stable

Baylor finished the year on a roll with five straight wins; Washington lost four of five before recovering to beat Washington State, which may be as important to them as beating Baylor, or moreso. The Bears had a slight chance of being selected for a BCS bowl game but it was never expected, so while this bowl might be a bit "below" what they deserve as a 9-3 team with the Heisman Trophy winner, they are playing very close to home. Washington is glad to be in the post-season for the second straight year, only three years removed from an 0-12 season, so they shouldn't complain, but already they are, and it's understandable in a way.

Let's face it: Washington is going to be the "other" team at the bowl game and they know it. For casual fans there's no reason to care about this bowl game except for the presence of the Heisman trophy winner, and he is the one the announcers are going to be talking about. Washington is like a mid-70s Muhammad Ali opponent. They'll try to play up the "disrespect" angle, but in the end, no one is going to care if their team's story isn't told. It's all about Robert Griffin III.

And if Washington jumps to a lead? The focus will be "can he lead Baylor to victory again?" not "how about this Washington team!" Thinking about "disrespect" might or might not be a good motivator; it can also be more of a self-defeating emotion, too.

Final analysis

The two questions here are: 1) Can Washington win this game, and 2) can Baylor really put up 50+ points? The answers as we see them are, probably not, and yes.

For the former, consider Washington's futility against the top 25. They lost a shootout to Nebraska, whose offense isn't close to Baylor's. But none of the teams that beat them are really much like Baylor. The closest team is probably Arizona, whom they beat 42-31, but even the Wildcats don't have the extreme of good offense/bad defense that Baylor does.

Baylor, of course, did not lose to any bad teams, but they did fall to 6-6 Texas A&M. The Aggies, however, are really a top 25 team in disguise, ranking #10 in the Strength Power Rating (they have 6 losses to bowl teams, 5 of them very close). The game that shows Baylor's weakness the most is the Kansas overtime win; if the Bears play like that against the Huskies, they will lose and lose big.

But I don't think that will happen. Looking again at Baylor's chart, we can also answer question #2. Baylor's offense was off the charts in their last three games: 45 vs. Oklahoma, 66 against Texas Tech, and 48 against Texas. All three of those games were played in Texas. Look at the peaks on the offense chart, and they all correspond to home games: 50 vs. TCU, 54 vs. Rice, 49 vs. Iowa State, 42 vs. Missouri. Corrected for the opponents they are scoring 15 more points at home than their average. Not 15 points more than they score on the road—15 points more than their overall average. Even with Griffin out for the 2nd half Baylor scored four more offensive touchdowns, three due to backup Nick Florence who burned his redshirt.

The Bears aren't playing strictly at home against Washington, but nearby in San Antonio, does that matter? The 66-point Texas Tech game was played in Arlington, so San Antonio should be counted as a home game. Given that, there's every expectation that Baylor should put up at least 40 points and probably 50.

And the Texas Tech game probably is the best comparison. The Red Raiders are about as good as Washington on offense. Washington has a better defense, but they're on the road where as Tech was in a neutral field situation. Washington has given up 50 points twice, while Baylor has averaged over 50 points when playing in Texas. The Huskies are good enough—and Baylor's D bad enough—for them to keep up to a certain extent but they'll likely fade before the finish line.

Prediction:  Baylor 56, Washington 42

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.