Kansas State did again what they've done all year—win a close game. The Wildcats beat Iowa State 30-23 in a back-and-forth game. The score was tied three times, at 7-7, 20-20, and 23-23 before John Hubert's 26 yard run gave K-State the go-ahead.
Meanwhile TCU took care of business easily, beating UNLV 56-9. The Horned Frogs were 38+ point favorites and did not disappoint.
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What does it mean for both of these teams in terms of the BCS? For TCU, the situation is pretty clear: they must be in the top 16 and they will have an automatic bid to a BCS bowl. With Houston's loss, TCU is the top non-AQ conference winner. If they make the top 14 they're in, and if they make the top 16—and are higher than the winner of an AQ conference—they're also in. Currently the Horned Frogs are five spots ahead of certain Big East winner West Virginia, so the top 16 is what TCU is shooting for. (West Virginia breaks a 3-way Big East tie by being the top-ranked BCS team of the three).
TCU looks good under current assumptions. They'll be in the top 16 almost for sure if either Baylor or Georgia loses today, as we assume they will pass the Big Ten championship loser. If both Baylor and Georgia win, TCU has a problem. The way Houston lost—49-28 to Southern Miss—the Cougars could fall below the Horned Frogs, but it's very far from certain.
Kansas State has one of the toughest roads for an at-large bid. So far things are going right, however, with Houston's loss and their own win. If Georgia manages to beat LSU, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then that is probably the Wildcats' best scenario and in that case we have them in the Sugar Bowl. This assumes that TCU is held out because of Georgia winning and Baylor winning. It also assumes that Houston doesn't fall below TCU, which would give TCU the spot. In fact, it assumes that Houston doesn't even fall below Michigan, which is about a 50/50 proposition now. So even though things are going right for Kansas State's long shot, everything is going to have to fall into place with games, voters, and BCS bowl officials to score one of the prime slots.
Both teams did what they had to do—win—but one or both of them will be held out of a BCS bowl. There is no scenario in which both teams make it.
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