BCS Race Update #4: Oklahoma State toasts Oklahoma 44-10--bad news for Alabama, Michigan?

Now things just got interesting. None of the outcomes in our BCS widget accounted for this possibility—Oklahoma State destroying Oklahoma and making a case to be in the BCS title game (we did note in the analysis that the Cowboys' only hope was to win about 50-0...but adding hypothetical point spreads in addition to 4,096 boolean game outcome combinations was too daunting!)

What happens now? Will Oklahoma State pass Alabama? If so, does that affect any of the other selections?

First of all, it's not certain, or close to certain, that Oklahoma State will pass Alabama. But it sure became more likely than it was at 3pm this afternoon.

Just by beating the Sooners, Oklahoma State had a good chance to pass Alabama in the computer composite, or at the minimum, pass the Tide in some of the individual computer rankings, thereby gaining BCS points.

The human polls—the USA Today/coaches poll and the Harris Interactive poll—are what really determine the teams' fate. And Oklahoma State will certainly gain points. How many is hard to determine; currently they are 5th in both polls. Whether they move to 4th, or 3rd, they will get a lot closer to Alabama. Getting to #2 in the polls would mean they finish #2 in the BCS; at #3, they have a slim chance.

Most likely, it seems, they get close but don't quite get there; the voters that have them at #3 might move them ahead of the Tide, but those that have them at #5 or #6 probably won't.

But what if they do? Assuming Oklahoma State takes the other spot in the BCS title game, the following changes occur:

• Alabama drops to #3. The Sugar Bowl, replacing LSU, will pick the Tide as their #1 team.
• The Fiesta Bowl loses Oklahoma State and needs a replacement team; then they pick immediately again for their #2 team. This is where it gets crazy. The Big 12 winner goes to the Fiesta Bowl but that's not a requirement when a replacement team is needed. The Fiesta will be choosing from Stanford, TCU, West Virginia, and all the other at-large teams, which include Kansas State and probably Michigan. They'd love to have Kansas State and Michigan but they can't get both unless somehow TCU doesn't make the top 16. How committed to the Big 12 is the Fiesta Bowl? Enough to choose them over Michigan? For their 2nd pick, they'll probably take Stanford. So it would be Michigan-Stanford or Kansas State-Stanford in the Fiesta.
• The Sugar Bowl will have next pick and between TCU and West Virginia. We think they'll take the border-state team, though it's possible it could be the Mountaineers against Alabama.
• Michigan State's narrow loss opens the possibility that the Spartans remain ahead of Michigan and TCU; while Oklahoma's huge loss means the Sooners might drop below one or both teams. This seems bad for Michigan but is probably a bigger concern for TCU; one of the two seems very likely to fall below Michigan, but it's possible both remain ahead of the Horned Frogs. If that happens then the Fiesta could match Kansas State and Michigan, leaving Stanford for the Orange after the Sugar takes West Virginia.

What is certain: With Clemson beating Virginia Tech again, the Tigers are in the Orange Bowl; Wisconsin edged Michigan State so they are Rose Bowl-bound against Oregon.

Comments

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And Oklahoma State will certainly gain points. How many is hard to determine; currently they are 5th in both polls. Whether they move to 4th, or 3rd, they will get a lot closer to Alabama. Getting to #2 in the polls would mean they finish #2 in the