Monday, January 2: Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL at 1:00 pm eastern
#17 Michigan State Spartans (10-3) vs. #22 Georgia Bulldogs (10-3)
The Outback Bowl got a very good Big Ten-SEC matchup this year, both 10-win conference title game participants.
Vegas line/spread: Georgia by 3 (over/under 50)
The oddsmakers favor the Bulldogs slightly in a mostly defensive battle; the line edged down from 3 1/2 to 3 on game day. They might be giving Georgia a bit of home field advantage for likely having the most fan support in border-state Florida.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. spread |
| Michigan State | 54% | 61% |
| Georgia | 46% | 39% |
Our power rating ranks Michigan State a bit higher than Georgia, #14 to #20. Correspondingly, MSU's game ratings are higher a slight majority of the time. Against the spread, the Spartans win 3 of every 5 trials.
Strength Power Rating: Michigan St 24, Georgia 22 Tempo-free: Michigan St 23, Georgia 20
Michigan State's advantage in the Strength Power Rating translates to a 2 point win, and defense is the key. While Georgia's scoring offense ranks higher (#24 to #32), the Spartans have the #4 adjusted scoring defense in the country, behind only Alabama, LSU, and Penn State. Georgia's scoring defense is #29. We don't assign any home field advantage in this game, though Georgia should have more fans at the game.
Yardage analysis: Georgia 18, Michigan St 17 per attempt: Georgia 20, Michigan St 17
By yardage, however, Georgia looks like the better team. They're #10 in the nation in adjusted yardage differential (yards gained - yards yielded) while Michigan State is #14. So while the Spartans rank the same by points or by yardage, Georgia's yardage ranking is 10 rungs higher than their points ranking.
The difference for Georgia is on defense. Their offense is #27—one spot higher than their points ranking—but their defense is #8, which is 20 positions higher than their scoring defense rank. Meanwhile Michigan State's defense remains #4 but their offense is #53, over 20 spots lower than their scoring offense.
Let's look at those discrepancies. First, Georgia's defense doesn't allow much yardage (#10) but allows more scoring (#20). This is very likely due to their poor (#108) red zone defense. When opponents manage to get inside the 20, they are rewarded for it, so Georgia's scoring defense isn't quite as good as their low yardage numbers would indicate.
Michigan State's scoring offense (#32) cashes in on its yardage (#53) at a high rate. The Spartans' red zone offense isn't above average, but they have a good turnover margin and are good at kick returns which helps them start shorter drives; with less yardage needed to score, their scoring numbers are better.
Both teams are expected to have low yardage numbers, MSU around 300 and Georgia 320 or so. When the yardage numbers are converted to a score, Georgia wins by a point. Using per-play figures the Bulldogs win by 3 despite averaging 2.6 yards per carry on the ground. They'll probably hold MSU to 3 yards per carry themselves, and have a slight advantage in passing yards per play.
Yardage + interceptions + kick returns: Michigan State 19, Georgia 17
As noted above, Michigan State has good turnover margin and kick returns, and both help them to win our modified yardage projection. Starting with the from-scrimmage per-game estimate above, we modify by potential interception and kick return differences, and the Spartans win both categories and gain 3 points.
The difference in interceptions is very slight, and maybe gives Michigan State a hypothetical 1/2 point. In kick returns, the Spartans have a decided advantage, with a good chance of some game-changing returns. They rank in the top 25 in both kickoff and punt returns, with Nick Hill and Keshawn Martin the key players. Meanwhile Georgia is 119th in kickoff coverage and 92nd in punt coverage, and has given up 2 touchdowns on returns in each. We estimate that kick returns give Michigan State about 2.5 points of advantage due to field position and the chance of a touchdown return.
When Michigan State has the ball
| Michigan State rushing offense: #78 |
Georgia rushing defense: #5 |
Le'Veon Bell and Edwin Baker combined for 1,555 yards and 16 touchdowns, but despite almost exactly equal carries (165 to 164) Bell has 11 touchdowns to Baker's 5. He also has a 5.5 to 4.0 average in yards per carry, which is why he has 900 of those yards. The Spartans aren't a great rushing team, however, and either of them will have trouble carrying the ball against Georgia's defense, which is #5 against the run. The Bulldogs might hold the Spartans to just 70 yards on the ground.
| Michigan State passing offense: #37 | Georgia passing defense: #26 per att: #7 |
| Michigan State interceptions thrown ranking: #47 | Georgia interceptions picked ranking: #18 |
| Michigan State quarterback protection rank: #51 | Georgia pass rush rank: #16 |
Michigan State will depend on Kirk Cousins for most of their offense against Georgia. Cousins had over 3,000 passing yards in 2011 with 24 touchdowns. B.J. Cunningham led the receivers with 1,240 yards and 12 touchdowns, and it's important that he have a good game. Keshawn Martin is #2 with 742. Georgia's pass defense is very sound at #26 in adjusted per-game yardage, but it's only that low because teams are forced to go to the air against the Bulldogs; they're #7 in per-play yardage. So it will take some work to even get the 230 passing yards we expect from Cousins.
And it doesn't get any better when you figure in potential interceptions and quarterback pressure. Georgia has 17 picks this year, including 7 from Bacarri Rambo. Cousins has only thrown 7 this year and it would be unlikely that Georgia have more than one interception during the game. The Bulldogs also get good pressure, and it's likely that they get two sacks, maybe three, against MSU's just-above-average protection.
When Georgia has the ball
| Georgia rushing offense: #38 |
Michigan State rushing defense: #2 |
Georgia's running game is pretty good—they just need to make sure they have a running back available. The Bulldogs have been cursed at that position since the start of the season, and going into the bowl game things still aren't perfect by any means. Isaiah Crowell (847 yards) has a bum ankle that is hopefully a lot better with the time off; #2 Carlton Thomas (361) was hurt against LSU; and #4 Richard Samuel hasn't played in a month. All three are "probable" for the game which means they should be in their best condition in quite a while.
Still, they have their work cut out for them against the Spartan defense, which is #2 against the run when adjusted for opponents' running games. The Bulldogs will be lucky to have 100 net yards after sacks are subtracted, and as mentioned they could average fewer than 3 yards per carry.
| Georgia passing offense: #31 | Michigan State passing defense: #16 per att: #9 |
| Georgia interceptions thrown ranking: #63 | Michigan State interceptions picked ranking: #20 |
| Georgia quarterback protection rank: #101 | Michigan State pass rush rank: #4 |
Like Michigan State, Georgia will likely have to go to the air assuming they can't run the ball very effectively. Aaron Murray has been fairly productive, managing 2,861 yards and 33 touchdowns. Three receivers—Malcolm Mitchell, Orson Charles, and Tavarres King—have 500 or more yards this year and combined for 16 TDs. The Spartans don't give up a lot through the air, either, ranking #16 per-game and #9 per-play. Murray might have around 225 yards
Other factors make that total seem possibly high. Murray has thrown a reasonable 12 interceptions but he'll have to watch himself against Michigan State's D, which has 15 picks and will likely have at least one more during the game. The real problem for Murray is going to be the pass rush. Michigan State is #4 in the nation in sacks adjusted for their opponent, with 41 total. Linebacker Denicos Allen leads the team with 10 on his own. Murray has been sacked 28 times this year and we projected the Spartans will have at least four in the game.
|
|
Michigan State's season (10-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- Youngstown St 28-6
- Florida Atlantic 44-0
- @ Notre Dame 13-31
- Central Michigan 45-7
- @ Ohio State 10-7
- #11 Michigan 28-14
- #7 Wisconsin 37-31
- @ #16 Nebraska 3-24
- Minnesota 31-24
- @ Iowa 37-21
- Indiana 55-3
- @ Northwestern 31-17
- = #7 Wisconsin 39-42
Michigan State didn't impress us early on. Beating Youngstown State by 22 and 1-11 FAU, then losing badly to Notre Dame? They beat Central Michigan, edged a floundering Ohio State, and beat an unproven Michigan team.
In retrospect, three of those early wins were all over bowl teams, and Michigan proved to be a very good team. So when the Spartans proved themselves against Wisconsin, it wasn't a fluke—even if the game-winning hail mary was. They fell at Nebraska badly the next week, but recovered to edge Minnesota, beat Iowa soundly, and finish 10-2 going into a rematch with the Badgers for a Rose Bowl berth. They fell behind early, came back and led, then fell behind again late. Martin returned a late punt to the 3-yard line, but a roughing penalty called that back, and Wisconsin killed the clock, ending the Spartans' Rose Bowl dream.
Though Michigan State is known for its defense, the offense can be very good—at times. It's been very inconsistent, though in later games—since being held to 3 by Nebraska—they've at least been average in scoring.
Georgia's season (10-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- #4 Boise St 21-35
- #10 South Carolina 42-45
- Coastal Carolina 59-0
- @ Mississippi 27-13
- Mississippi St 24-10
- @ Tennessee 20-12
- @ Vanderbilt 33-28
- = Florida 24-20
- New Mexico St 63-16
- Auburn 45-7
- Kentucky 19-10
- @ Georgia Tech 31-17
- #1 LSU 10-42
Georgia dropped its first two games, and Mark Richt's head was about to be cut off and delivered on a platter to his detractors.
But the Bulldogs went on a 10-game winning streak that forestalled that event indefinitely. What was the difference? How did they elevate their game?
Really, they didn't. The losses were to Boise State and South Carolina, two teams that were in the top ten at the time and finished there. Georgia played good football in both games. Against South Carolina the defense was awful but the offense was great. Against Boise, both were reasonable. For the rest of the year the offense was average, the defense above average, and the team got by when they needed.
They were assisted by a schedule that avoided Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas from the West, instead beating Auburn and the Mississippi teams. They didn't dominate their own division, edging Vanderbilt and Florida to win the East. They beat Georgia Tech in a non-conference rivalry game before facing LSU, during which missed opportunities and big plays from the Tigers doomed them. Still, it wasn't a bad performance, on part with their earlier, understandable losses. Like Michigan State, Georgia's offense has its moments, but defense is their bread and butter.
Key Injuries
All of Georgia's key running backs are hobbled but all should be available for the bowl game. Michigan State nose tackles Johnathan Strayhorn and Kevin Pickelman are probably unavailable for the game, which could be a big loss for Michigan State.
Psychology/Motivation
- Michigan State's season: -1 win; Georgia's season: +4 wins
- Michigan State's momentum: -1 win; Georgia's momentum: +1 win
- Michigan State won final game: NO; Georgia won final game: NO
- Michigan State glad to be there? no; Georgia glad to be there: yes
- Michigan State coaching situation: stable; Georgia coaching situation: stable?
Both teams lost in their conference championship games, but they were two very different losses. Georgia expected to lose, and though they fought tough early the loss to LSU was soon a foregone conclusion. Michigan State had already defeated Wisconsin once, and they led for most of the 2nd half of the rematch. In a sad twist of fate for them, they lost to the Badgers in circumstances almost as unlikely as the one it took to beat them in the first meeting. Mark Dantonio called it his toughest loss ever, and it knocked the Spartans—minutes away from the Rose Bowl berth that eluded them last year—down to the Outback Bowl.
Georgia's season can be seen as one of redemption. After last year's 6-7 outing, the Bulldogs started 0-2 and most had written them off as an SEC competitor. But 10 straight wins fixed that, and helped secure Mark Richt's job—at least until they lose another two games in a row, which could happen here.
|
|
Final analysis
With both teams playing great defense and erratic offense, we agree with the Vegas' odds for a lower-scoring game. The question is which offense will be able to overcome the staunch defense opposing them and move the ball?
Neither team can likely run the ball very well on the other. The Spartan rushing defense even better than Georgia's, and all of the Bulldogs running backs are less than 100%. With a 3rd string nose tackle starting for MSU, the injuries could balance out, but the Bulldogs can't count on the run game delivering for them. Meanwhile if the Spartans go to Bell more often he might have some success on the ground but again, nothing big should be expected.
Passing is problematic too, as both defenses are in the top 10 in pass yardage per-play. But Kirk Cousins is a senior playing his final game so we expect him to be motivated; meanwhile Georgia sophomore Aaron Murray is going to be under a relentless pass rush that could disrupt his game a lot.
Michigan State may also get big plays on punt or kick returns. In the end, they seem to have the advantage in moving the ball and scoring.
One thing the Spartans have to get over is their disappointment over how the season ended. Georgia could have a significant mental edge playing closer to home, with more fans in attendance, against a still-shellshocked MSU team. But Mark Dantonio is a great motivator for his team; witness last year when his hospitalization had the team playing at a new high level. This year he's got them playing at that level without needing a heart attack to get them there. By bowl time, he should have the team recovered from their letdown. If not, we might see a sluggish Spartan team. But with Cousins playing his final game, Michigan State should come out on top in a great Big Ten-SEC battle.
Prediction: Michigan State 19, Georgia 17
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.
|
|
I just don't learn, do i?
Posted by: college soccer coaching jobs | February 10, 2012 at 06:59 AM