Monday, January 2: Capital One Bowl in Orlando, FL at 1:00 pm eastern
#10 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) vs. #16 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3)
The complementary game to the Outback Bowl, this Big Ten-SEC matchup features teams that beat Michigan State and Georgia but didn't make their conference title games.
Vegas line/spread: South Carolina by 3 (over/under 45.5)
South Carolina is a slight favorite to win a low-scoring game. The early line was closer to 2 1/2 points and settled on 3 by game day.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. spread |
| South Carolina | 52% | 48% |
| Nebraska | 48% | 52% |
South Carolina has played just a bit better than Nebraska on average, winning 52% of our game rating cross-comparisons. They rank 17th in our Strength Power Rating to Nebraska's 24th. Against the narrow spread, Nebraska becomes a very slim favorite.
Strength Power Rating: S. Carolina 26, Nebraska 25 Tempo-free: S. Carolina 23, Nebraska 23
Our main points-based power rating has the Gamecocks as just a 1 point favorite. Neither team is great on offense, with Nebraska 30th and South Carolina 34th. But the Gamecocks have the edge on defense, ranking 11th to Nebraska's #35.
Both teams play at a very measured tempo, so there probably won't be as many drives in this game, hence fewer scoring opportunities. Using the power rating derived from tempo-free stats, the game is an almost exact tossup, and the combined score matches the oddsmakers line. Call this a multiple-overtime win for Nebraska, as they are 1/100th of a point ahead.
Yardage analysis: S. Carolina 21, Nebraska 15 per attempt: S. Carolina 24, Nebraska 17
Though the teams are very even by point spreads, South Carolina leads in terms of yardage, ranking 17th to Nebraska's 33rd in adjusted yardage differential. The main difference is that Nebraska's rating has declined, their offense ranking 39th and defense 31st by yardage. South Carolina's offense has also declined, ranking just 60th, but their defense ranks #5. So the Gamecocks have a very average offensive yardage output and extremely stingy defense, but the net result is little different from their score-based ranking. All told, South Carolina should outgain Nebraska by around 50 total yards which here translates to about 6 points. On a per-attempt basis the Gamecocks are a 1-touchdown favorite.
Yardage + interceptions + kick returns: South Carolina 22, Nebraska 14
Modifying the yardage spread with estimates from non-scrimmage plays, we look at turnovers and kick returns. On turnovers, interceptions are the only thing that is even slightly projectable, and we have South Carolina with the advantage there, as they are more likely to reel in more than one pick, giving them an additional 2 point advantage. Both teams have a fair chance of big kick returns or advantages in field position, but it's not significant enough for us to modify the score. Nebraska ranks #6 in kickoff return fielding, but their coverage is poor on both punts and kicks which evens things out.
When South Carolina has the ball
| South Carolina rushing offense: #25 |
Nebraska rushing defense: #58 |
Marcus Lattimore was the team's top rusher with 818 yards, but of course he didn't play past game 7 when he suffered an ACL tear. Since then freshman Brandon Wilds has been the man, gaining 486 yards, and QB Connor Shaw showed great ability gaining 483 net yards. Nebraska's rushing defense is only average this year in the FBS; using full-year figures the Gamecocks would have around 190 yards. Losing Lattimore probably knocked 20 yards off their expected value, but Shaw taking over for Garcia regained a lot of that, so the team might be as good on the ground as they were before. In fact, their adjusted Rushing ranking barely changed from mid-season before they lost Lattimore.
| South Carolina passing offense: #90 | Nebraska passing defense: #19 per att: #23 |
| South Carolina interceptions thrown ranking: #93 | Nebraska interceptions picked ranking: #59 |
| South Carolina quarterback protection rank: #84 | Nebraska pass rush rank: #104 |
Steve Spurrier finally had his fill of Stephen Garcia, who played five games this year before being dismissed. Connor Shaw actually started the first game, struggled and was replaced, then came back strong when replacing Garcia. Shaw had 1,218 passing yards to Garcia's 844, a good-sized per-game decline, but he had 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions to Garcia's 4:9 ratio and a far better completion percentage. Nebraska's strong pass defense will probably limit the Gamecocks to around 150 yards. Alshon Jeffery is South Carolina's most consistent receiver with 614 yards and 7 TDs, but he's struggled this year compared to last.
South Carolina as a team rates poorly in interceptions thrown, but again most of those were Garcia's; Nebraska's defense will probably get one pick. Garcia did avoid sacks better than Shaw, getting caught only 6 times to Shaw's 19, but Nebraska's defense doesn't have a Ndamakong Suh on the d-line this year and should only have about 2 sacks.
When Nebraska has the ball
| Nebraska rushing offense: #10 |
South Carolina rushing defense: #19 |
Nebraska is a strong running team with Rex Burkhead and QB Taylor Martinez combining for over 2,000 yards, 1,268 of those Burkhead's. The two have 24 touchdowns on the ground. South Carolina's rushing defense is up to the challenge but given that the passing option is not good at all for this game, the Cornhuskers might run even more than usual and should top 200 yards.
| Nebraska passing offense: #99 | South Carolina passing defense: #1 per att: #1 |
| Nebraska interceptions thrown ranking: #61 | South Carolina interceptions picked ranking: #3 |
| Nebraska quarterback protection rank: #31 | South Carolina pass rush rank: #67 |
Like last year, Taylor Martinez has had his ups and downs passing. He managed just shy of 2,000 yards while completing 56% with 12 TDs and 7 interceptions. No receiver had over 500 yards and 2 TDs but Kenny Bell had 408 and four others were in the 200s. This rather weak attack is paired against the nation's top pass defense, either on a per-game or per-attempt basis. The Gamecocks could hold the Cornhuskers under 100 yards.
Martinez also has to be careful with the ball. His 7 interceptions is not excessive but he hasn't faced a lot of teams that pick the ball off like South Carolina does. The Gamecocks have 18 interceptions spread out among nine players; they should have 1 or 2 against Nebraska. South Carolina is less fearsome in terms of their pass rush, and Martinez (15 sacks) will probably be sacked only once.
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South Carolina's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- = East Carolina 56-37
- @ #22 Georgia 45-42
- Navy 24-21
- Vanderbilt 21-3
- Auburn 13-16
- Kentucky 54-3
- @ Mississippi St 14-12
- @ Tennessee 14-3
- @ #6 Arkansas 28-44
- Florida 17-12
- The Citadel 41-20
- #18 Clemson 34-13
The first half of South Carolina's season was all about Marcus Lattimore and Stephen Garcia, but neither was there after mid-year.
The Gamecock's opener was almost a disaster, with East Carolina taking a 17-0 lead before Spurrier pulled Shaw for Garcia, who led a huge comeback win. After that, Garcia and Lattimore sparked narrow wins over Georgia and Navy, while the defense controlled Vanderbilt. The offense stalled against Auburn and Garcia was dismissed due to yet another team violation.
With Shaw, the offense exploded against Kentucky, but Lattimore was lost against Mississippi State; South Carolina barely won that game, limped to a win over Tennessee, and lost to Arkansas. They managed to beat Florida and The Citadel, but had a good outing against Clemson.
On offense the team excelled against East Carolina, Georgia, and Kentucky, but never reached those heights again. But in their last few games they seemed to have recovered from the loss of Lattimore and made the transition away from Garcia. The defense was able to bail them out in most, but not all, of the games where the offense stalled.
Nebraska's season (9-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- Chattanooga 40-7
- Fresno St 42-29
- Washington 51-38
- @ Wyoming 38-14
- @ #7 Wisconsin 17-48
- Ohio State 34-27
- @ Minnesota 41-14
- #17 Michigan St 24-3
- Northwestern 25-28
- @ #23 Penn State 17-14
- @ #11 Michigan 17-45
- Iowa 20-7
The first sign that Nebraska's defense was once again fading away from the "Blackshirts" ideal came against Fresno State, who scored 29. Washington put up 38 in game 3, and then Wisconsin kicked the door wide open by scoring 48 points in a lop-sided win.
The defense wasn't any better against Ohio State but the offense did enough to win. Against Michigan State, the D was at its best, holding the Spartans to three points, but the offense let the team down against Northwestern at home in a huge upset that cost the Cornhuskers the spot in the Big Ten title game. They beat Penn State but were shredded at Michigan similar to the Wisconsin rout. Again, they came back strong at home, beating Iowa 20-7 in another great defensive performance.
The Cornhuskers normally only played to their potential on offense OR defense; if they did both, they'd be a great team. Arguably they only played well on both sides of the ball against Chattanooga, Wyoming, Minnesota, and Michigan State.
Key Injuries
For South Carolina, the season saw Marcus Lattimore go down with a knee injury and starting quarterback Stephen Garcia dismissed. Other running backs were hurt so that they started a freshman, who has performed well. They've been relatively healthy as of late. Nebraska will probably be missing offensive lineman Andrew Rodriguez.
Both teams will be without their defensive coordinators; Carl Pelini took the Florida Atlantic head coaching job and South Carolina's Ellis Johnson will be head coach at Southern Miss.
Psychology/Motivation
- South Carolina's season: +1 win; Nebraska's season: -1 win
- South Carolina's momentum: +0 wins; Nebraska's momentum: -1 win
- South Carolina won final game: yes; Nebraska won final game: yes
- South Carolina glad to be there? yes; Nebraska glad to be there: yes
- South Carolina coaching situation: stable; Nebraska coaching situation: stable
While South Carolina did a bit better than last year and Nebraska a game worse, the Gamecock's success is muted by the fact that they didn't win their division as they did in 2010. While both teams would have liked the chance to play to get in a BCS bowl, they're well aware they have no one to blame but themselves: they beat the teams that ended up representing the division, but didn't get the job done in the other games.
And going to their conference title games probably would have just meant an extra loss. South Carolina would have faced LSU, while Nebraska would have rematched the Wisconsin team that beat them 48-17. As it is, not taking an extra loss got them to a better bowl game.
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Final analysis
These are two interesting teams. South Carolina has undergone a big transformation on offense during the year, losing their superstar running back and starting quarterback, but come out of it relatively unscathed largely due to a great defense. Nebraska has played up and down on both sides of the ball, the offense playing well one week, the defense the next, and sometimes neither getting the job done resulting in two blowout losses.
If Nebraska had a game where they put it all together they could easily beat the Gamecocks. But we haven't really seen a complete game from the Cornhuskers yet. They've come close and had some good wins, but most of the heights they've reached have been due to good defense paired with decent offense. South Carolina's troubles have mostly been on offense, and they became dependent on their defense to keep them in games where the offense struggled.
Both teams played well in their last game, so I expect that to carry through to the bowl game and make for a good, hard-fought contest. Nebraska is too inconsistent, however. South Carolina's offensive problems were partially due to personnel changes that they've now had time to get over. Nebraska is just erratic. Though I think both teams will play well, South Carolina has the edge. They shouldn't allow the passing game to get going at all, making for a battle of rushing between the teams, and the Gamecock defense is better in that department.
It might not be pretty on either side, but it should at least be a close game.
Prediction: South Carolina 23, Nebraska 18
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2011-2012 bowl game schedule.
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The defense wasn't any better against Ohio State but the offense did enough to win. It was really very nice.
Posted by: soccer coaching jobs | February 10, 2012 at 06:11 AM