After Friday night's loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma State looked dead in the water as far as the BCS championship goes. But Saturday cleared away several of their rivals, and their high ranking with the computers may keep them within (slim) striking distance of the top two.
Of course, one of the rivals cleared away was Oklahoma, and they'd rather that not have happened, since beating a 1-loss Sooner team was pretty critical to their comeback chances. But for the present, the Baylor upset helped them with the computers, since their own win over Baylor looks that much better. The Cowboys could slide from a tie for #1 in the computer composite to just #2 or #3, and that could help them hold on at #4 behind the all-SEC trio of LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas.
Following at #5 should be Virginia Tech and Stanford in some order, as the two will be quite close. In fact all of the next four pairs are interchangeable (numbers 5 and 6, 7 and 8, 9 and 10, and 11 and 12) but not the top four. We have the Hokies probably holding off the Cardinal, but Houston passing Boise State for #7. This depends on Boise's computer lead, and Boise victim Nevada lost to Houston victim Louisiana Tech which might be enough to do diminish it.
Another interesting race is for #9, where we have Oklahoma falling from 5 to 9 and Oregon falling from 4 to 10. The Ducks should be ahead in both polls but Oklahoma will probably fall far less in the computer composite. That's due to the increased value of Iowa State, an Oklahoma victim. While the Cyclones' win over Oklahoma State was bad for Oklahoma's future, it's good for their present computer ranking. Still, the Ducks could remain ahead of the Sooners; as we noted, the banded positions are close.
This Sunday's projected BCS Standings (USA ranking actual; computer composite and Harris projected). Variance is more likely within groupings, which demarcate teams expected to be close in rating.
lw proj Team W L Comp USA Harris
1 1 LSU 11 0 1 1 1
3 2 Alabama 10 1 3 2 2
6 3 Arkansas 10 1 4 3 3
2 4 Oklahoma St 10 1 2 6 5
8 5 Virginia Tech 10 1 6 4 6
9 6 Stanford 10 1 8 5 4
11 7 Houston 11 0 9 7 7
10 8 Boise St 9 1 10 8 8
5 9 Oklahoma 8 2 7 11 11
4 10 Oregon 9 2 12 9 9
13 11 Kansas St 9 2 5 15 15
15 12 Michigan St 9 2 15 10 10
12 13 South Carolina 9 2 14 13 13
14 14 Georgia 9 2 17 14 12
7 15 Clemson 9 2 13 17 17
Kansas State moves to #11 in our projection, though Michigan State could take the spot, too. The Wildcats are very high in the computers and the Spartans are not. The Wildcats should hold their lead there but they have less upside.
South Carolina may fall a spot this week; the entire SEC didn't do itself any favors with the computers this week for playing an FCS-heavy schedule, and SC's pointless win over The Citadel allows other teams to push past them. Fellow SEC member Georgia also stalls after beating Kentucky, and Clemson's 2nd loss should drop them to #15. The Tigers might be out of the top 15 all together if Michigan passes them, but Clemson probably retains a small edge.
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