SportsRatings: College Football

2011 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 13

The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

Not much to say this week, except that fromer #3 Arkansas lost as expected and tumbles from #3 to #8 while #1 LSU and #2 Alabama remain in place. The Razorbacks have losses to the top two teams, by identical 24 point margins. So we know they're pretty far from the top, but their single impressive win—beating South Carolina 44-28—doesn't give much of a clue to how good they are. That's what bowl games are for.

The other top teams—all with one loss—slide up a notch. The relative merits of Boise State, Stanford, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech can be debated but in terms of résumés they're all pretty equal. Again, bring on the bowl games—though the Cowboys and Hokies have tests coming up this weekend.

Houston follows, undefeated and untested. They face #25 Southern Miss this weekend in a game that can only bring them down, as the Golden Eagles are a borderline top 25 teams to be sure.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 13 (thru 11/26/2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Louisiana State	12-0	[email protected] 9-6ot, Ark 41-17, Oregon 40-27, @WVA 47-21
2	2	Alabama	11-1	L LSU 9-6ot; wArk 38-14, @PennSt 27-11
4	3	Boise State	10-1	L TCU 36-35; [email protected] 35-21
5	4	Stanford	11-1	L Oregon 53-30; [email protected] 54-46ot
6	5	Oklahoma State	10-1	[email protected] 37-31ot; wKState 52-45, Baylor 59-24
7	6	Virginia Tech	11-1	L Clemson 23-3; wArkSt 26-7
8	7	Houston	12-0
3	8	Arkansas	10-2	[email protected] 41-17, @Alabama 38-14; wSCar 44-28
9	9	Michigan St	10-2	[email protected] 31-13, @Neb 24-3; wWisc 37-31, Mich 28-14
10	10	Wisconsin	10-2	[email protected] 33-29, @MichSt 37-31; wNeb 48-17, PennSt 45-7
11	11	Southern Cal	10-2	[email protected] 43-22, Stan 54-46ot; [email protected] 38-35
12	12	Oregon	10-2	L USC 38-35, @LSU 40-27; [email protected] 53-30
13	13	South Carolina	10-2	L Aub 16-13, @Ark 44-28; [email protected] 45-42, Clem 34-13
14	14	Michigan	10-2	[email protected] 24-16, @MichSt 28-14; wNebraska 45-17
15	15	TCU	9-2	L SMU 40-33ot, @Baylor 50-48; [email protected] 36-35
16	16	Oklahoma	9-2	L TxTech 41-38, @Baylor 45-38; [email protected] 58-17
17	17	Georgia	10-2	L SCar 45-42, BoiseSt 35-21
20	18	Kansas State	9-2	L Oklahoma 58-17, @OKst 52-45; wBaylor 36-35
21	19	Baylor	8-3	[email protected] 55-28, @Kst 36-35, @OKst 59-24;  wOK 45-38, TCU 50-48
22	20	Nebraska	9-3	L Nwest 28-25, @Wisc 48-17, @Mich 45-17;  wMichSt 24-3, @PennSt 17-14
19	21	Clemson	9-3	[email protected] 37-13, @GTech 31-17, @SCar 34-13; [email protected] 23-3
18	22	Penn State	9-3	[email protected] 45-7, Nebraska 17-14, Alabama 27-11
23	23	Arkansas State	9-2	[email protected] 33-15, @VTech 26-7
24	24	West Virginia	8-3	[email protected] 49-23, Lou 38-35, LSU 47-21
25	25	Southern Miss	10-2	[email protected] 34-31, @Marshall 26-20

 

The raft of 2-loss teams follows in pretty much the same order as last week, along with the favored 3-loss teams. The population of quality 3-loss teams is already getting in short supply with the losses by five of them last week, all against ranked opponents: Boise State beat Wyoming 36-14, Stanford topped Notre Dame 28-14, Virginia Tech blanked Virginia 38-0, Houston beat Tulsa 48-16, and Georgia beat Georgia Tech 31-17. Our fears of an overcrowded Top 25 were for naught as no team leaves or enters the rankings this week.

Next weekend: It's a pretty busy final weekend (not counting December 10's Army-Navy game of course) as an amazing 17 of the top 25 are in action, 10 of them against each other:

• #1 LSU vs. #17 Georgia for the SEC crown
• #5 Oklahoma State vs. #16 Oklahoma for the Big 12 title
• #6 Virginia Tech vs. #21 Clemson for the ACC championship
• #7 Houston vs. #25 Southern Miss for C-USA bragging rights
• #9 Michigan State vs. #10 Wisconsin for the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl trip

Also, #12 Oregon faces UCLA for the other side of the Rose Bowl berth; #18 Kansas State plays Iowa State; #19 Baylor takes on Texas; #23 Arkansas State faces Troy; #24 West Virginia tackles South Florida; and in the games of the week, #15 TCU hosts UNLV (a 38 point underdog) and #3 Boise State hosts New Mexico (a 48.5 point underdog).

2011-2012 BCS Bowl Projection Widget: Test every outcome and scenario

NOTE: THIS IS LAST YEAR'S WIDGET. FOR THIS YEAR'S WIDGET CLICK HERE.

So who is going to be in which BCS bowl game? This year it's a lot more complicated than last year, due to the large number of games this weekend that could tweak the results, as well as a few teams (Michigan and TCU) that are on the borderline of making it into the lineup or being excluded altogether.

There are about 12 games that could reasonably affect the BCS Bowl lineup. Rather than make 4,096 lists of the projected final standings, I made a simple tool to show what I think will happen under all outcomes of those 12 games. Just click on the team on the left hand side that you think might win this weekend and the results are generated automatically.

Welcome to the 2011-2012 version of the BCS Bowl Predictor! Scroll down past the widget for analysis and updates.

The default game picks below now reflect the actual game outcomes; all the favorites won except Virginia Tech and Houston. While the winners and losers didn't stray far from expectations, some of the more outlandish possible scenarios relating to margin of victory occurred, with Oklahoma State putting the national championship game in doubt. See THIS POST for our final projections, given the USA rankings that came out on December 4th.

As you can see there are a lot of minor changes in game outcome that can have a big effect on the results. The text in the box below the lineup attempts to explain the outcome, but with the large number of variations sometimes the explanation might be lacking. And of course, the Bowls might end up choosing a different team in the cases where they have an option.

Here's a rundown of each team's chances in a nutshell (listed by current BCS standings):

1. LSU: Almost guaranteed a spot in the BCS championship game. There is a miniscule chance that, if they lose 50-0 to Georgia, they could fall enough in the polls to sit at #3. It's not even worth exploring where they would end up. 99% of the time they play for the title. Update: LSU beats Georgia, 42-10, and locks up a spot in the national title game.
2. Alabama: Very close to a lock for the BCS championship game; again we don't even explore the alternatives. Oklahoma State would have to beat Oklahoma 50-0 and have enough voters put the Cowboys ahead of the Tide; Georgia beating LSU might put the Cowboys on top of some computers, too. But there's probably a 90% chance for Alabama to play for the title; the other 10%, they're in the Sugar Bowl, unless—the nightmare scenario—Georgia beats LSU, and Alabama isn't in a BCS bowl at all as the Bulldogs push them out of the Sugar. Under all normal circumstances Alabama makes the championship game, unless there is an unforeseen shift in sentiment among the USA and Harris voters that a rematch isn't deserved. Update: With Oklahoma State cleaning Oklahoma's clock—nearly the 50-0 scenario we jokingly proposed—Alabama's spot in the national title game could be in jeopardy. With LSU beating Georgia, the Tide will at least go to the Sugar Bowl.
3. Oklahoma State: Disregarding their minor hope for getting in the BCS championship game, the Cowboys are headed for the Fiesta bowl if they beat Oklahoma. If they lose, however, things get tough. Then, they have to hope neither Houston nor TCU is eligible so that there's an at-large spot open for them. And Boise State might even have to lose to New Mexico, which is not likely. Update: Oklahoma State's performance against Oklahoma increases their odds of reaching the BCS title game from almost zero to at least somewhat possible.
4. Stanford: The Cardinal are sitting pretty at #4, which is a lock under BCS rules for a BCS bowl. That rule is pretty convoluted, but Stanford is in, somewhere, if they're #4. Problem is, there's a slim chance they don't stay there. Virginia Tech could blow out Clemson (we've been using 50-0, we'll stick to it), and voters could say Hey! Virginia Tech is 12-1 and avenged their only loss! and move them up, perhaps enough to make them #4 and put Stanford #5. Possible, but doubtful. Even at #5 the Cardinal are a strong pick, but not a guarantee in all circumstances. We're assuming that Virginia Tech does NOT pass Stanford. This puts the Cardinal in the Fiesta Bowl under most scenarios, with a slim chance for the Sugar or Orange if weird things happen. Update: Stanford doesn't have to worry about Virginia Tech any more. They should be in the Fiesta, unless Oklahoma State makes the championship game, which could shift the Cardinal most likely to the Orange.
5. Virginia Tech: If they beat Clemson, Orange Bowl. That part's easy. If they lose? Again, like Oklahoma State, things get ugly fast for the Hokies. They, too, would benefit if neither Houston nor TCU made the cut as automatic picks, and would probably need Kansas State to lose, too. Then they might be in the Sugar Bowl. Update: Bzzzzt. The Hokies' 38-10 loss puts them out of the Orange Bowl and circumstances don't allow them to be a serious at-large consideration. UPDATE: To quote Popeye WELL BLOW ME DOWN. Apparently the Sugar Bowl committee had much serious consideration for the Hokies. We didn't match Michigan up with them without TCU and Kansas State losing; since TCU didn't get in to the top 16 that wasn't an impediment. But after the 38-10 blowout we didn't think there was a chance in hell.
   
6. Houston: The Cougars just need to beat Southern Miss and they're BCS bowl bound, most likely the Sugar Bowl. Some have suggested the Fiesta—against Oklahoma State—but we don't see it. The bowls can pick who they like, so it could be...but we have them in the Sugar in every scenario where they make it, against either Michigan or Georgia. If they lose they'll drop like a rock in the computer ratings and have essentially zero chance for an at-large bid. Update: The last sentence sums it up for the Cougars, who lost 49-28 to Southern Miss. This helps TCU a lot, and probably Michigan too as Houston could drop below the Wolverines. But it could be tight.
7. Boise State: It's hard to rate Boise's chances for an at-large bid. On the plus side, they're almost a certain winner against 1-10 New Mexico (they are nearly a 50 point favorite). On the down side, a lot of other teams have to lose to make the Broncos look attractive to a BCS bowl. Their best bet might be against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, setting up a rematch of the 2006 classic. But for that to happen Houston and TCU (a near-40 point favorite) would probably have to lose. Alternately, if Oklahoma State wins, Boise could end up in the Orange Bowl if Houston, TCU, and Kansas State all lose. Update: The Broncos are demolishing New Mexico as expected, but TCU's win pretty much demolishes any chance Boise had of sneaking into a BCS bowl.
8. Arkansas: No chance at all, sorry Razorbacks. There are already two—and maybe three!—teams in the BCS from your conference.
9. Oregon: The Ducks pretty much have a do-or-die against UCLA—Rose Bowl or bust. For one thing because a loss to UCLA would look bad and drop them out of realistic at-large contention. Update: Ducks have won and are in the Rose Bowl. Pretty straightforward.
10. Oklahoma: It's not quite Fiesta Bowl or Bust for the Sooners, but it's close. A third loss would drop the Sooners, but their computer ranking would still be high and a close game against the Cowboys wouldn't irrepairably harm them in the polls. They would need a lot of other teams to lose—probably Houston and TCU to keep a spot open, and maybe even Kansas State and Boise State to clear out the other eligible, high-ranked teams. Then the Sooners might face Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. Update: Whoops. Not only do the Sooners not go to the Fiesta Bowl, but losing 44-10 might take them out of at-large range. Not that they'd likely get picked after laying that egg.
11. Kansas State: Must beat Iowa State, of course, and then hope a few other things happen: Houston losing and TCU staying out of the top 16, and Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma. Then the Wildcats could be Sugar Bowl bound. Update: Kansas State beat Iowa State, and with Houston's loss things were going right for the Wildcats. But TCU won, leaving a Georgia win over LSU K-State's only hope. With LSU's win, K-State has almost no hope since TCU is probably taking up the spot they'd need. UPDATE: Oklahoma State's performance against Oklahoma gives Kansas State new life; they need the Cowboys in the BCS title game and for the Fiesta Bowl to pick the Wildcats as the replacement. Neither is even close to a certainty, but things look better for K-State than they did late this afternoon.
    
12. South Carolina: See Arkansas.
13. Michigan State: Another do-or-die, Rose Bowl or bust. Update: The Spartans busted. Not literally, as they almost beat the Badgers, but their loss removes them from BCS consideration. They might not fall very much, though, and this is the result that concerned Michigan fans the most—the Spartans denying Michigan a spot in the top 14.
14. Georgia: Beat LSU and go to the Sugar Bowl; lose and go to a regular bowl. Update: Georgia gave a good effort early but there is no BCS bowl in their near future. The SEC will have to settle for two teams rather than three.
15. Wisconsin: As with Michigan State, the winner is in the Rose Bowl, the loser is out of the BCS speculation. All four teams vying for the Rose Bowl are in the same boat. Update: The Badgers are in the Rose Bowl.
16. Michigan: The most interesting case of the year. A lock to be chosen if eligible, the Wolverines need to finish in the top 14. That means they need to move up two spots. The easiest way? #14 Georgia loses to LSU, and either #13 MSU or #15 Wisconsin loses and drops below UM. How could it go wrong? Maybe the Spartans lose but the pollsters keep them above Michigan, whom they beat? Probably the Wolverines move ahead enough in the computers to still gain the spot. Baylor beats Texas and jumps Michigan? Again, possible but not probable. We assume that Michigan makes the top 14 unless Georgia beats LSU, and even then they could if Houston loses, but we don't count on it for the calculations. If LSU beats Georgia, Michigan is the Sugar Bowl's first pick; if Georgia wins and Houston loses, Michigan could be the Fiesta Bowl's #2 pick if Houston drops far enough. There hasn't been a team in quite a while that is so certain to be chosen if they can just crack the top 14. Update: Houston's solid loss likely brightened the picture for Michigan; the Cougars actually lost by enough that they could fall below the Wolverines which would put them in the top 14. But it's LSU beating Georgia, that helps Michigan the most. Things are looking very good for the Wolverines. UPDATE: Oklahoma State's huge win over Oklahoma could spell trouble for Michigan, if OK State manages to get in the BCS title game. Or it might put the Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl instead of the Sugar. The latter would depend on how committed to the Big 12 the Fiesta Bowl is. YET ANOTHER UPDATE: How things have changed. Now the slim worry of Michigan State losing a tight game with Wisconsin has also come true. So Michigan is hanging by a thread if Oklahoma State gets in the BCS title game or not. Wolverine fans have to hope MSU falls below Michigan and Baylor stays behind them. It's gonna be close—it might even be Oklahoma falling farther than expected that saves the Wolverines.
    
17. Baylor: The Bears can't make a BCS bowl, but they can act as spoiler to TCU, and maybe even Michigan, by beating Texas. Update: Baylor took care of Texas 48-24, which should keep them easily ahead of TCU. Will they pass Michigan? Probably not, but it's not impossible.
18. TCU: If TCU beats UNLV and Houston loses, the Horned Frogs only need to make the top 16 to be an automatic bid. Currently at #18, they can't depend on passing the Cougars nor on gaining any ground for their win over the Rebels, so they need a couple of teams above them to lose. Those teams could be: Wisconsin/Michigan State, Georgia, or Baylor. If Georgia and Baylor win, TCU is out of luck—even a Kansas State loss probably doesn't help. Then they'd be dependant on a longshot Boise State loss, as the Broncos would tumble and logically fall below the Horned Frogs, who beat them earlier. Suffice it to say TCU should be rooting primarily for LSU to beat Georgia, and Houston to lose. Update: The key outcome—a Houston loss—has occurred for the Horned Frogs, who went on to dominate UNLV. Baylor won but Georgia lost to LSU, which is very good news for the Horned Frogs. But Michigan State's narrow loss holds out the possibility that TCU finishes #17 and out of luck, while it's possible even that Oklahoma drops far enough to put them back in. Dec. 4 Update: At the 11th hour it looks bad for TCU; neither Oklahoma nor Michigan State probably falls below TCU, Clemson very likely passed them, and even Georgia might not fall enough. The Horned Frogs will be somewhere between 16th and 18th, most likely missing by one spot and finishing #17.
    

For completeness' sake, here are the Big East outcomes, based on their games this weekend:

• WVA and Cincy win: Three-way tie, West Virgina wins Big East tiebreaker
  
• Cincy loses: Louisville wins outright, or wins tiebreaker over WVA
• WVA loses and Cincy wins: Cincinnati wins tiebreaker over Louisville.

Update: West Virginia is the Big East winner (assuming they maintain their lead in the BCS rankings, which is almost a certainty) and probably goes to the Orange Bowl, though in a few scenarios we have them in the Sugar instead.

In Defense of Houston: 2011 Cougars are no 2007 Hawaii

...The Cougars might not measure up to last year's TCU team but they are a worthy BCS buster.

A recent article on ESPN (Insider required) makes the case that Houston is not only undeserving of a national title shot, but is also unworthy of a BCS bowl. Brian Fremeau argues the Cougars would be hopelessly outmatched a la 2007's Hawaii team, who fell to Georgia 41-10.

I don't think that's the true at all. While Fremeau's system has the Cougars as the #35 team in the nation, that seems far too low, certainly for the way Houston is playing right now. Houston may have looked like the 2nd coming of Hawaii early in the season, but not any more.

First, the similarities. There are some ways in which Houston resembles the 2007 Warriors, who went undefeated against a terrible schedule before being shut down completely by Georgia's defense. For one, both offenses were relentlessly pass-happy, led by record-breaking quarterbacks Case Keenum and Cole Brennan. Houston and Hawaii were among the very top passing teams in yards per game, even when adjusted for their weak schedules. Houston was #1 as of last week, and before the bowl season Hawaii was #2 in 2007. Both had high-scoring offenses, with Hawaii averaging over 46 points per game (pre-bowl) and Houston 52.67 through 12 games. The Cougars are currently scoring at an all-time NCAA record pace, even though they rank #2 (behind Oklahoma State) when we adjust for their opponents' defenses.

Both Houston and Hawaii played very weak schedules compared to other top teams. Hawaii's schedule that year consisted of two Division I-AA teams and just two I-A teams with winning records. As of a few weeks ago (when Fremeau wrote his analysis) Houston's 2011 schedule contained just two winning teams.

Both teams ran up a lot of points but still had scares against some bad teams. In 2007 Hawaii needed overtime to beat 6-7 Louisiana Tech 45 to 44; they needed overtime again to beat 5-7 San Jose State 42-35; they defeated 6-7 Nevada just 28-26; and had to rally to edge 4-9 Washington 35-28. Similarly, Houston edged UCLA 38-34, beat Louisiana Tech, 35-34 (after trailing by 28), and held off UTEP 49-42.

But the last comparison reveals the real difference between the teams. Hawaii's difficulties were season-long, and happened against losing teams. Conversely, two of Houston's close calls—UCLA and Louisiana Tech—were against winning teams, and all three came in Houston's first five games.

Since those first five games, Houston has been a powerhouse and has played like a top ten team, winning by an average margin of 41 points. They've added two more winning teams (SMU and Tulsa) to their victims list. In short, they've shown that they aren't anything like the 2007 Hawaii team.

Where Hawaii couldn't at all run the ball, ranking 120th in the nation when adjusted for competition, Houston ranks a respectable 59th, and #10 in per-carry rushing yards. This shows that their offense isn't completely one dimensional, and is therefore far more difficult to stop that Hawaii's. In this respect they resemble a later Mike Leach Texas Tech team more than the '07 Warriors.

Another area of difference is defense. The 2007 Warriors didn't play it, ranking 100th in adjusted scoring defense before the bowl season. It wasn't hard to figure out than almost any team could keep up just by scoring a lot—we'd seen it during the regular season in their close calls. Houston on the other hand ranks as an average FBS team on defense (#62). They aren't going to shut down a great offense, but they won't completely roll over for most teams. While they gave up 33.25 points against their first four FBS opponents, they've given up just 13.25 against their last four.

Again, this shows Houston's improvement from the first half of the season. Through October 1st, the Cougars ranked just 49th in the nation in our Strength Power Rating. As of Friday, they're #9:

num  Team                       record  rating   offense       defense
  1. LSU                        12-0   76.05   63.01 [ 10]  -13.04 [  2]
  2. Alabama                    10-1   75.07   61.54 [ 13]  -13.52 [  1]
  3. Oklahoma                    8-2   74.94   68.60 [  4]   -6.34 [  7]
  4. Oklahoma St                10-1   74.65   73.00 [  1]   -1.65 [ 29]
  5. Oregon                      9-2   74.20   69.43 [  3]   -4.76 [ 12]
  6. Stanford                   10-1   72.80   67.87 [  5]   -4.93 [ 11]
  7. Wisconsin                   9-2   71.17   66.49 [  6]   -4.67 [ 14]
  8. Boise St                    9-1   68.81   64.20 [  8]   -4.60 [ 15]
  9. Houston                    12-0   66.54   70.37 [  2]    3.83 [ 62]
 10. Michigan                    9-2   65.31   57.89 [ 18]   -7.42 [  6]

In 2007, Hawaii ranked just 36th before their BCS bowl game. Fremeau's system is drive-based, and filters out some data while making a number of adjustments to determine a team's ranking. The Strength Power Rating uses margin of victory and little else, but it's good at exposing pretenders like Hawaii. Houston probably skews a bit high due to their offense running up points, but they no longer resemble Hawaii like they did early on, and that's without weighing recent games any more than early games. Houston's game performance chart tells the story of their improvement:

In fact, over their last seven games the Cougars rank #2 behind LSU. Though playing against LSU's defense would be a tall order, a Houston team playing for the national title wouldn't necessarily be an embarrassment.

We do agree that Houston shouldn't be considered for the national championship; they just haven't played anyone good enough to justify it. And there have always been teams that rank well in power ratings but just don't match up well against a tough defense—note how even Oregon struggled against LSU.

If the Cougars do make it to a BCS bowl, however, they are more than deserving. They might not stack up to some of the other teams that made it in the past—namely 2004 Utah, and 2010 TCU—but they're a lot better than 2007 Hawaii. In fact, asking if Houston is more similar to 2010 TCU or 2007 Hawaii is the wrong question, as they resemble neither of those teams, but they do rank similarly in quality to other BCS busters.

Houston ranks about at the level of 2006 Boise State team that upset Oklahoma and the 2008 Utah team that beat Alabama. Both of those teams entered the bowl season ranked #12 in the Strength Power Rating, and both of their opponents—Oklahoma and Alabama—ranked 10th. Both BCS-busters pulled off upsets, showing that they were worthy after all. Fremeau's article closes with the sentiment that "a team like Alabama or any other AQ conference BCS bowl team" will end Houston's unbeaten streak. But there is a world of difference between Alabama or "any other AQ conference BCS bowl team" this year.

Admittedly Alabama—who along with LSU arguably has one of the best defenses in college football history—would be a bad matchup for Houston and is a far better team, but since it looks like the Tide will be in the national title game that comparison is moot. Instead, it could be a team like Michigan, and Houston could be competitive with the Wolverines. Michigan's defense is much improved and would be a test even for Houston's offense, while their offense would certainly push Houston's questionable D. In short, it might be a great game, possibly very high-scoring, and potentially another classic like Boise State-Oklahoma.

So while Fremeau laments Houston's rise into BCS bowl discussion, we don't. Their schedule is lacking, but they are likely every bit as good as 2006 Boise State, and that team gave us one of the great college football bowl games of all time.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - week 12: LSU vs. Alabama rematch in the cards

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings after predicting the results of the remaining games and the effect of those results on the polls and the BCS computers. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far left; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

If things play out the way we expect—and almost any other way, too—then LSU and Alabama will face each other in a rematch for the BCS championship in January. The Tigers will have a perfect BCS score if they win out, and Alabama won't be far behind, and they'll be comfortably ahead of the probable #3 Virginia Tech. The Hokies in turn will have a decent lead over #4 Stanford.

The positions from #5 to #7 are virtually deadlocked and could be in any order, but if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State on December 3, look for them to have a tiny edge for #5, ahead of Boise State and Oregon, who won't gain much of anything for their Pac-12 title game win. Arkansas will be just behind Oregon, maybe a little bit more or less depending on how close they play LSU. Oklahoma State should be a very close #9, too, making positions 5 through 9 very tight.

Look for a continued great computer score to put Kansas State in the top 10, well ahead of Wisconsin who will still have a relatively poor one. The Badgers should win the Big Ten and just edge South Carolina for #11. Houston, assuming they are upset by either Tulsa or Southern Miss, will be #13, ahead of Michigan State who should lose the rematch with Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. TCU should round out the top 15 under our set of assumptions.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 12 results

11/20 BCS	12/04 BCS	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	Computer Composite	USA/ Coaches	Harris Interactive
1	1	LSU	13	0	BCS Title	1	1	1
2	2	Alabama	11	1	BCS Title	4	2	2
5	3	Virginia Tech	12	1	Orange	6	3	3
6	4	Stanford	11	1	Fiesta	9	4	4
9	5	Oklahoma	10	2	Fiesta	2	9	8
7	6	Boise St	11	1	Orange	8	6	6
10	7	Oregon	11	2	Rose	10	5	5
3	8	Arkansas	10	2		7	7	7
4	9	Oklahoma St	10	2	Sugar	3	10	10
11	10	Kansas St	10	2		5	12	12
16	11	Wisconsin	11	2	Rose	16	8	9
12	12	South Carolina	10	2		11	11	11
8	13	Houston	11	1		12	13	13
14	14	Michigan St	10	3		14	14	14
20	15	TCU	10	2		15	15	15

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last projection in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	LSU vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Boise State

Last weekend's events have put the BCS on a collision course with a rematch. The only saving grace is, strangely enough, that LSU will have the home field advantage, much as Alabama did for the first game. This way, the Tigers get a deserved edge while at the same time, if Alabama wins they can rightly claim to be the top team.

After Oregon's loss to USC the Ducks will finish below Stanford in the BCS but still go to the Rose Bowl to face Wisconsin; the Cardinal should finish high enough to insure a BCS bowl bid for all practical purposes. The Fiesta Bowl picks first and, having Oklahoma in hand, will go with the Westernmost team—though they could opt for a rematch of the 2006 Oklahoma-Boise State game, which would send Stanford out east to the Orange Bowl again.

The most interesting pick is by the Sugar Bowl. Even before the Fiesta picks its #2 team, the Sugar will have to replace the SEC champs, and they can't pick another SEC team since only two from a conference can participate (there is one exception to this, I believe, which we'll discuss later). Oklahoma State will be the nearest high-ranked team to chose so the Cowboys will be heading to New Orleans. When the 2nd pick rolls around it will be down to Boise (or Stanford) and West Virginia, the expected Big East winner. Without a Southern anchor team the Sugar might be loathe to take Boise, instead opting for another pseudo-Southern team in West Virginia. That leaves Boise State to the Orange Bowl against Virginia Tech.

All of this assumes the games play out exactly as we expect, which is of course a longshot when taken all together. Some of the more likely possible variations include Michigan State winning the Big Ten (they'd go to the Rose Bowl, of course); Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma (replacing them in the Fiesta; they'd still need huge help to make the title game); Clemson defeating Virginia Tech for the ACC crown and Orange Bowl berth; and Houston beating Tulsa and Southern Miss to finish undefeated (they'd likely pass Boise State as the automatic non-AQ team, and most logically end up in the Sugar Bowl).

Some less likely possibilities could alter the BCS championship game. For LSU to be out, they'd probably have to lose twice, to both Arkansas and Georgia. This could happen if the loss to the Razorbacks is close, with the Tigers remaining #1 in the BCS standings and therefore still playing in the SEC title game. If they lose to Arkansas by a lot however, Alabama would be #1 in the BCS and play Georgia, while LSU would probably remain #2 and still play in the BCS title game. If LSU beats Arkansas but loses to Georgia, the Bulldogs would be Sugar-bowl bound as the SEC champ, while conference #2 and #3 LSU and Alabama play for the national title, meaning three SEC teams would be in BCS bowls. How the pollsters would deal with such a thing in practice we don't know, but it could happen.

Of course, Alabama could blow it by losing to Auburn, and coupled with Arkansas wins over LSU and Georgia could put the Razorbacks in an all-SEC BCS title rematch with LSU; that's Arkansas' only real chance to get to the title game. Other BCS-buster results include Oregon State upsetting Oregon and putting Stanford back in the Pac-12 title game; Utah (or whoever wins the Pac-12 South) beating Oregon or Stanford and going to the Rose Bowl; Virginia beating Virginia Tech and Clemson to claim the Orange Bowl berth; and a 7-5 Louisville or Pittsburgh managing to win the Big East.

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, November 20, 2011: Oklahoma State still alive?

After Friday night's loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma State looked dead in the water as far as the BCS championship goes. But Saturday cleared away several of their rivals, and their high ranking with the computers may keep them within (slim) striking distance of the top two.

Of course, one of the rivals cleared away was Oklahoma, and they'd rather that not have happened, since beating a 1-loss Sooner team was pretty critical to their comeback chances. But for the present, the Baylor upset helped them with the computers, since their own win over Baylor looks that much better. The Cowboys could slide from a tie for #1 in the computer composite to just #2 or #3, and that could help them hold on at #4 behind the all-SEC trio of LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Following at #5 should be Virginia Tech and Stanford in some order, as the two will be quite close. In fact all of the next four pairs are interchangeable (numbers 5 and 6, 7 and 8, 9 and 10, and 11 and 12) but not the top four. We have the Hokies probably holding off the Cardinal, but Houston passing Boise State for #7. This depends on Boise's computer lead, and Boise victim Nevada lost to Houston victim Louisiana Tech which might be enough to do diminish it.

Another interesting race is for #9, where we have Oklahoma falling from 5 to 9 and Oregon falling from 4 to 10. The Ducks should be ahead in both polls but Oklahoma will probably fall far less in the computer composite. That's due to the increased value of Iowa State, an Oklahoma victim. While the Cyclones' win over Oklahoma State was bad for Oklahoma's future, it's good for their present computer ranking. Still, the Ducks could remain ahead of the Sooners; as we noted, the banded positions are close.

This Sunday's projected BCS Standings (USA ranking actual; computer composite and Harris projected). Variance is more likely within groupings, which demarcate teams expected to be close in rating.

lw  proj  Team           W   L   Comp   USA  Harris
1    1    LSU            11  0     1     1     1
3    2    Alabama        10  1     3     2     2
6    3    Arkansas       10  1     4     3     3
2    4    Oklahoma St    10  1     2     6     5
8    5    Virginia Tech  10  1     6     4     6
9    6    Stanford       10  1     8     5     4
11   7    Houston        11  0     9     7     7
10   8    Boise St        9  1    10     8     8
5    9    Oklahoma        8  2     7    11    11
4    10   Oregon          9  2    12     9     9
13   11   Kansas St       9  2     5    15    15
15   12   Michigan St     9  2    15    10    10
12   13   South Carolina  9  2    14    13    13
14   14   Georgia         9  2    17    14    12
7    15   Clemson         9  2    13    17    17

Kansas State moves to #11 in our projection, though Michigan State could take the spot, too. The Wildcats are very high in the computers and the Spartans are not. The Wildcats should hold their lead there but they have less upside.

South Carolina may fall a spot this week; the entire SEC didn't do itself any favors with the computers this week for playing an FCS-heavy schedule, and SC's pointless win over The Citadel allows other teams to push past them. Fellow SEC member Georgia also stalls after beating Kentucky, and Clemson's 2nd loss should drop them to #15. The Tigers might be out of the top 15 all together if Michigan passes them, but Clemson probably retains a small edge.

2011 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 12: SEC #1, 2, & 3 with LSU, Alabama, Arkansas

The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

We should have known it: in a weekend with very few (only 2) intra-top-25 games, there would be several major upsets in other games. Not only did #2 Oklahoma State kick off the weekend with an overtime loss on Friday, but #7 Clemson lost Saturday afternoon and #4 Oregon and #8 Oklahoma followed suit on Saturday night. This left a top three composed solely of SEC teams: #1 Louisiana State, who had no trouble at all with Mississippi (52-3); Alabama, who started slow against FCS power Georgia Southern but prevailed 45-21; and Arkansas, who dispatched Mississippi State 44-17.

No one really considers Arkansas the 3rd best team in the country, but who else deserves the spot? The Razorbacks have lost only to 1-loss Alabama and have a win over 2-loss South Carolina, which is a better résumé than the other candidates can claim. Next week they face LSU at home; with a win they cause a three-way tie at the top, so they'd either jump to #2 (if the victory is convincing) or simply solidify their #3 spot. At worst they fall to the top of the 2-loss list. In any case, the dominance at the very top by the SEC is getting ridiculous this year, and it looks like we're headed for an SEC vs. SEC rematch for the national championship.

We move Boise State up to #4, and the Broncos have to be kicking themselves over how everything they needed to have happen—except for beating TCU last week—is falling into place. Stanford moves up to #5, their loss to Oregon wider, and win over USC narrower, than Boise's comparable contests with TCU and Georgia. Before Saturday, Oklahoma State looked like they might fall out of the top ten but the carnage of the weekend saved them; they have two top 25 wins which gives them a slight edge over #7 Virginia Tech.

If Houston played anyone significant, at this time they could start thinking about the national championship game. But they don't. Their current win tally is 9 teams with losing records and 3 with winning records. They next face Tulsa who has lost only to Boise State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, so at least that will give a good comparison for how good the Cougars are. But that's not really the question; regardless of how good they are, they haven't defeated the kind of teams they must to prove they deserve consideration for the national title. A favorable "Tulsa comparison" with Boise (who beat the Golden Hurricane 41-21 at home) might go far to convince pollsters to put the Cougars ahead of the Broncos, which could put them 1st in line for the automatic non-AQ bid.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 12 (thru 11/19/2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Louisiana State	11-0	[email protected] 9-6ot, Oregon 40-27, @WVA 47-21
3	2	Alabama	10-1	L LSU 9-6ot; wArk 38-14, @PennSt 27-11
5	3	Arkansas	10-1	[email protected] 38-14; wSCar 44-28
7	4	Boise State	9-1	L TCU 36-35; [email protected] 35-21
6	5	Stanford	10-1	L Oregon 53-30; [email protected] 54-46ot
2	6	Oklahoma State	10-1	[email protected] 37-31ot; wKState 52-45, Baylor 59-24
11	7	Virginia Tech	10-1	L Clemson 23-3; wArkSt 26-7
10	8	Houston	11-0
14	9	Michigan St	9-2	[email protected] 31-13, @Neb 24-3; wWisc 37-31, Mich 28-14
12	10	Wisconsin	9-2	[email protected] 33-29, @MichSt 37-31; wNeb 48-17
20	11	Southern Cal	9-2	[email protected] 43-22, Stan 54-46ot; [email protected] 38-35
4	12	Oregon	9-2	L USC 38-35, @LSU 40-27; [email protected] 53-30
15	13	South Carolina	9-2	L Auburn 16-13, @Ark 44-28; [email protected] 45-42
22	14	Michigan	9-2	[email protected] 24-16, @MichSt 28-14; wNebraska 45-17
16	15	TCU	9-2	L SMU 40-33ot, @Baylor 50-48; [email protected] 36-35
8	16	Oklahoma	8-2	L TxTech 41-38, @Baylor 45-38; [email protected] 58-17
17	17	Georgia	9-2	L SCar 45-42, BoiseSt 35-21
18	18	Penn State	9-2	L Nebraska 17-14, Alabama 27-11
9	19	Clemson	9-2	[email protected] 37-13, @GTech 31-17; [email protected] 23-3
21	20	Kansas State	9-2	L Oklahoma 58-17, @OKst 52-45; wBaylor 36-35
--	21	Baylor	7-3	[email protected] 55-28, @Kst 36-35, @OKst 59-24;  wOK 45-38, TCU 50-48
13	22	Nebraska	8-3	L N'west 28-25, @Wisc 48-17, @Mich 45-17;  wMichSt 24-3, @PennSt 17-14
23	23	Arkansas State	9-2	[email protected] 33-15, @VTech 26-7
24	24	West Virginia	7-3	[email protected] 49-23, Lou 38-35, LSU 47-21; @Cincy 24-21
19	25	Southern Miss	9-2	[email protected] 34-31, @Marshall 26-20
		out:
25	--	Cincinnati	7-3	[email protected] 45-23, @Rutgers 20-3, WVA 24-21

So who is tops among the 2-loss teams? Well Michigan State has the most big wins (2), and with Nebraska's loss they can move back in front of Wisconsin who follows at #10. The Badgers are two very close losses away from being undefeated. Oregon has the cleanest résumé but they should be just behind USC who beat them 38-35 in Autzen stadium. From #13 to #15, South Carolina, Michigan, and TCU have nearly identical strength in wins and losses, with the Wolverines' big win over Nebraska launching them up 8 spots.

Oklahoma falls from #8 to #16, not just for the Baylor loss but also because Texas Tech now has a losing record. Georgia and Penn State remain at #17 and #18 and neither has a bad loss or a braggable win, while Clemson tumbles from #9 to #19. The Tigers were blasted by North Carolina State, 37-13, their second convincing loss to an unranked team. Their prior win over Virginia Tech keeps them above 20 Kansas State, whose prior 1-point home win over Baylor is their best victory. The Bears enter at #21 after beating the Sooners 45-38 on Robert Griffin III's heroics; falling to #22 is Nebraska, who like Baylor has three losses, one to an unranked team, two to ranked teams, with a similar two wins over top 25 teams.

Arkansas State took care of Middle Tennessee State to remain at #23, and #24 West Virginia was idle. Southern Mississippi was the victim of the weekend's first—and probably biggest—upset as they lost to Alabama-Birmingham on Thursday. They remain in at #25 for a couple of reasons: one, they are 9-2, and two, they have a win over Virginia, who is one of the most deserving 3-loss teams. The Cavaliers beat FSU 14-13 and play Virginia Tech next weekend. Collaros-less Cincinnati fell to Rutgers, 20-3, and falls out.

Next weekend: Intra-top-25 contests between #1 LSU and #3 Arkansas, #10 Wisconsin vs. #18 Penn State, and #13 South Carolina vs. #19 Clemson. Also, a number of 3-loss teams try to prove they are worthy of entry: Tulsa hosts #8 Houston; Georgia Tech hosts #17 Georgia; Wyoming travels to #4 Boise State; Virginia hosts #7 Virginia Tech; and Notre Dame travels to #5 Stanford. If all those 8-3 teams win, I don't know what we'll do except maybe have a Top 30 next week.

2011 Heisman Race week 12 - Not so fast Weeden, Jones, & James

Remember last week, when everyone was coronating the latest Heisman star, Brandon Weeden? How LaMichael James was said to have put himself squarely back in the race with Oregon's win over Stanford? And how Landry Jones has supposedly been a viable candidate all year?

How quickly things change. We don't move things around very quickly on our list for a reason, and last weekend was a golden example of why. James didn't "re-insert" himself into the race because for us, he was never out of it. Weeden didn't become the front-runner because that doesn't happen overnight. And Jones never became a serious candidate for us because, well, he never looked like a Heisman winner to us.

Like everyone else, we're getting tired of having Andrew Luck at the top spot. Not that we have anything against him, and he's had his moments, but more and more he's just not very inspiring. Between the loss to Oregon and several recent ho-hum games, his position at the top is precarious. A late push by nearly anyone could topple Luck, and if he loses to Notre Dame next week he's out. A big game against the Irish, however, would silence a lot of the critics.

Kellen Moore hasn't recovered from Boise's loss but hasn't stopped playing well, either. Boise doesn't have any games against decent competition left so Moore's best outcome is to prevent a slide. Unless all the other candidates self-destruct, #2 is probably the best he can do. Racing up behind him is Case Keenum, who got ESPN GameDay exposure last weekend and had a good game, though it wasn't a 9-TD performance. Keenum has an outside chance of winning as his slew of records continues to grow. Looking at our top three, it's a contest between the best quarterback of the last two years (Luck), the best QB of the last four years (Moore), and the best QB of the last five years (Keenum).

Trent Richardson is almost as uninspiring as a running back as Luck is at QB. Like Luck, he has his moments and highlight reel plays, but he's not killing with the numbers. 175 yards against Georgia Southern is nice, but a huge game against Auburn would be better. It's also his last chance since Alabama has almost no way to reach the SEC title game. Wisconsin's Montee Ball is the current running back du jour, and he's a big reason Russell Wilson falls 2 spots on our list. Wilson's 90 passing and -6 rushing yards were nothing compared to Ball's 224 against Illinois. Wilson is still the passing efficiency leader, but efficiency without output never won a Heisman. He does have potentially two more big games to turn the perception around, but Wilson currently has no traction. In fact, I should probably officially reserve the right to magically replace Wilson with Ball, in case the latter continues his pseudo-Sanders-esque string of performances.

2011 Heisman Race after week 12

1. Andrew Luck, QB-Stanford (10-1)
   241-343 70% 2937yd 31TD 8int; 39rsh 133yd 3.4av 2TD 1fmb; 1rec 13yds 0TD
   Luck had another adequate, not-bad-enough-to-downgrade performance.
   
2. Kellen Moore, QB-Boise State (9-1)
   248-336 74% 2915yd 35TD 6int; 16rsh -50yd -3.1av 0TD 0fmb
   Moore threw 4 TD passes, enough to stay near the top.
3. ^ Case Keenum, QB-Houston (11-0)
   309-421 73% 4269yd 38TD 3int; 41rsh 54yd 1.3av 3TD 2fmb
   His team is 11-0. No other full-time starting quarterback can say that.
4. ^ Trent Richardson, RB-Alabama (10-1)
   236rsh 1380yd 5.8av 20TD 0fmb; 26rec 322yd 2TD; 66ret yds 0TD
   His 175 yards came against an FCS team, but nearly everyone faced one this year.
5. v Russell Wilson, QB-Wisconsin (9-2)
   170-231 74% 2506yd 26TD 3int; 59rsh 289yd 4.9av 5TD 2fmb; 1rec 25yds 1TD
   90 passing yards doesn't cut it, even in a comeback win.
6. ^ Robert Griffin III, QB-Baylor (7-3)
   245-336 73% 3572yd 33TD 5int; 135rsh 550yd 4.1av 5TD 3fmb; 15 rec yds
   Griffin's third straight great game included Heisman-like heroics in an upset win.
7. v LaMichael James, RB-Oregon (9-2)
   173rsh 1285yd 7.4ave 13TD 1fmb; 14rec 180yd 1TD; 151ret yds 1TD 1fmb
   Just 78 yards against USC, and a goal-line fumble that would have been the difference.
8. v Denard Robinson, QB-Michigan (9-2)
   119-220 54% 1792yd 15TD 14int; 182rsh 1006yd 5.5av 14TD 2fmb
   Robinson scored 4 total TDs against Nebraska but his TD/int ratio is hard to swallow.
9. ^ Brandon Weeden, QB-Oklahoma State (10-1)
   355-486 73% 4111yd 34TD 12int; 15rsh -95yd -6.3av 0TD 0fmb
   Weeden had 476 yards in a losing effort; his full-season stats keep him alive.
   
   Removed from consideration
   
10. v Justin Blackmon, WR-Oklahoma State (10-1)
    103rec 1241yd 15TD 2fmb; 3rsh 6yds 2.0 ave 0TD; 2ret yds 0TD 1fmb
    Blackmon had 99 yards, 1 TD in a loss, not enough to salvage his candidacy.
    
11. Landry Jones, QB-Oklahoma (8-2)
    290-444 65% 3796yd 28TD 10int; 22rsh 21yd 1.0ave 2TD 0fmb
    447 yards but no scores pretty much sums up Jones' Heisman campaign.
12. Tajh Boyd, QB-Clemson (9-2)
    243-395 62% 3255yd 27TD 9int; 110rsh 181yd 1.6av 4TD 1fmb
    Boyd's campaign ends with a thud in a 37-13 loss to North Carolina State.
     
    
13. Ryan Broyles, WR-Oklahoma
    
14. Luke Kuechly, LB-Boston College
    
15. Marcus Lattimore, RB-South Carolina
    

Robert Griffin III had the explosive performance of the week. In what we had termed an elimination match between Griffin and Oklahoma's Landry Jones, Griffin stepped up and threw a killer touchdown pass that ended both Oklahoma's national title hopes and Jones' Heisman campaign. In the last three games Griffin has 10 TDs and 1 interception, and nearly 1,200 passing yards. Also: 238 yards on the ground and two more touchdowns. He jumps from #8 to #6 on our list and is safe for at least another week and should make it to New York. He has two games left which is great for his upside potential but at the same time, taking a fourth loss could end his hopes.

LaMichael James' up and down season took another down note with his 78-yard effort in the loss to USC. Worse, James fumbled the ball on a 3rd-and-goal from the 1 at the end of the first half. In a 3-point loss, an extra TD would have helped a lot. James will need a big game against Oregon State to survive to next week on our list, and even though he should have another game on December 3 it might not matter. Denard Robinson played well in Michigan's blowout win, but his passing stats are just too weak to win as a quarterback. Unless, of course, the Wolverines were undefeated; then it would be a different matter. He'd have to be pulling off magic every week, but he flubbed a couple of times here and there, and it's likely he falls out of the running next week. A big game against Ohio State could forestall the inevitable though. 

Oklahoma State's loss wasn't necessarily due to Brandon Weeden or Justin Blackmon, but the Cowboy offense wasn't quite itself, either. Faced with keeping one of the two, we've finally put Weeden in front of Blackmon. The latter didn't have as good of a year as last season while Weeden has been much better. His completion percentage is up from 67% to 73% and he has almost as many yards in 11 games this year as he did in 13 last season. His 34:12 TD:int ratio is almost exactly last year's 34:13, so he still throws quite a few picks. It's doubtful we'll keep him around for his last game on December 3, but if Wilson, Robinson, and James stink up the place over Thanksgiving, Weeden will have one last shot. Blackmon is one of our three cuts this week.

As mentioned we've also cut Landry Jones, who had nearly 500 passing yards against Baylor but suffered his 2nd loss of the season. His numbers just weren't there, nor was any sense of excitement that has to surround a Heisman winner. Clemson's Tajh Boyd also goes down in flames with a 37-13 loss. If Clemson hadn't lost to N.C. State, then great performances against South Carolina and in the ACC title game could possibly have given Boyd a push at the end, but it was not to be.

2011 Heisman Race, week 11: Luck, Moore lose - now what?

The same week the national title race began to narrow, the Heisman race opened up to include just about anyone. With Andrew Luck's Stanford taking a painful loss, the front-runner is no longer far ahead of the field. Another contender, Kellen Moore, sufferered a similar setback. Meanwhile LaMichael James re-ignited his candidacy and Brandon Weeden became the leading candidate on the highest-ranked undefeated team, not a bad position to be in.

Andrew Luck is still the probable front-runner, and still our #1. His last two weeks haven't been great, and the loss to Oregon was substantial—Luck lost a fumble that led to an easy Oregon score, threw a terrible pass that was intercepted (leading to another score), and threw a late pick six which wasn't his fault but killed any hope the Cardinal had of winning the game. A disaster, yes, but when you look at the field, almost every candidate has had such a game this year.

Case in point: Kellen Moore, still our #2, is a very weak #2 in that there's not much difference between #2 and #10 at this point. Boise State's first loss was by just a point—36 to 35—and you can't fault him for racking up 35 against TCU, and he played well. But late in the game he couldn't drive Boise in for the touchdown, and they were lucky to even have the chance at a field goal.

Russell Wilson had a fantastic day, with 3 more TD passes than incompletions (16 of 17) against Minnesota. His team's earlier losses hold him back—he already had his disaster game, against Michigan State—but he leads the nation in passing efficiency and can't be discounted as a high finisher if Wisconsin wins out. Remember, if that happens the Badgers are in line for an extra game in the Big Ten title game, something Luck, Moore, Richardson, and the candidates from Oklahoma State and Oklahoma don't have.

Case Keenum continued his winning ways against sub-par competition. His numbers the last few weeks were good but he needs more 9 touchdown games to really break into the top three. If you dock Moore for losing to TCU, you have to note that Houston hasn't faced a team that good all season. If you count Southern Miss, then that might be forthcoming, but the Cougars will have to beat Tulsa first. Keenum does get a boost from his team's unblemished record as Luck and Moore can't claim that, regardless of the fact that they've played live opponents.

Trent Richardson moves into our top five, the only change at the top in the tumultuous week. But LaMichael James is right on his heels after Oregon's big win. James has missed games and had poor games, but when he has a big outing it's spectacular. Richardson is more consistent, perhaps, but he feeds off highlight-reel runs more than huge numbers. James was off most people's lists a long time ago but we're not quite so fickle. Still, he's going to have to impress to overtake Richardson as the top running back, as the Alabama back did somewhat better against LSU and has faced tougher competition overall.

2011 Heisman Race after week 11

1. Andrew Luck, QB-Stanford (9-1)
   221-313 71% 2680yd 29TD 7int; 34rsh 134yd 3.9av 2TD 1fmb; 1rec 13yds 0TD
   Andrew's luck ran out against Oregon, with 2 big INTs, a fumble and a loss.
   
2. Kellen Moore, QB-Boise State (8-1)
   220-297 74% 2549yd 31TD 5int; 14rsh -40yd -2.9av 0TD 0fmb
   Moore was 28 of 38 for 2 touchdowns but the Broncos fell to TCU 36-35.
3. Russell Wilson, QB-Wisconsin (8-2)
   160-218 73% 2416yd 25TD 3int; 55rsh 295yd 5.4av 4TD 1fmb; 1rec 25yds 1TD
   Wilson threw 4 TD passes and had just one incompletion against Minnesota.
4. Case Keenum, QB-Houston (10-0)
   279-376 74% 3951yd 37TD 3int; 37rsh 35yd 0.9av 2TD 2fmb
   Another "quiet" game for Keenum with 325 yards and 3 TDs against Tulane.
5. ^ Trent Richardson, RB-Alabama (9-1)
   204rsh 1205yd 5.9av 18TD 0fmb; 25rec 318yd 1TD; 66ret yds 0TD
   Richardson added 127 yards and another TD to his totals against Mississippi State.
6. ^ LaMichael James, RB-Oregon (9-1)
   153rsh 1207yd 7.9ave 12TD 0fmb; 13rec 175yd 1TD; 140ret yds 1TD 1fmb
   James came up big against Stanford with 146 yards and 3 touchdowns.
7. v Denard Robinson, QB-Michigan (8-2)
   108-202 53% 1709yd 13TD 13int; 159rsh 923yd 5.8av 12TD 2fmb
   Robinson was injured in the 3rd quarter against Illinois and had just 122 combined yards.
8. Robert Griffin III, QB-Baylor (6-3)
   224-302 74% 3093yd 29TD 5int; 117rsh 478yd 4.1av 5TD 3fmb; 15 rec yds
   Griffin had three passing and one rushing TD for the 2nd straight week.
   
9. Justin Blackmon, WR-Oklahoma State (10-0)
   93rec 1142yd 14TD 2fmb; 3rsh 6yds 2.0 ave 0TD; 2ret yds 0TD 1fmb
   Another solid 100 yard, 2 TD game from Blackmon.
   
10. ^ Brandon Weeden, QB-Oklahoma State (10-0)
    313-428 73% 3635yd 31TD 9int; 15rsh -95yd -6.3av 0TD 0fmb
    Weeden was 31 of 37 for 5 touchdowns in a 66-6 romp over Texas Tech.
    
11. v Landry Jones, QB-Oklahoma (8-1)
    254-393 65% 3349yd 28TD 9int; 17rsh 22yd 1.3ave 2TD 0fmb
    Jones and the Sooners were idle last weekend.
12. ^ Tajh Boyd, QB-Clemson (9-1)
    222-361 61% 3017yd 27TD 7int; 100rsh 191yd 1.9av 4TD 0fmb
    Boyd was hot and cold, throwing 2 interceptions but rallying the team to a 31-28 win.
    
    Removed from consideration
    
13. v Ryan Broyles, WR-Oklahoma (8-1)
    83rec 1157yd 10TD 1fmb; 196ret yds 0TDs 1fmb
    Broyles is out for the year with an ACL tear.
14. ^ Luke Kuechly, LB-Boston College (3-7)
    168 tackles, 2 interceptions, 0 sacks
    Kuechly had another 18 tackles in B.C.'s third win of the year.
    
15. v Marcus Lattimore, RB-South Carolina (8-2)
    163rsh 818yd 5.0av 10TD 2fmb; 19rec 182yd 1TD
    Lattimore is out for the season with injury.

Denard Robinson has been fading for weeks and is starting to get "dinged up" like he did last year. His rushing numbers are falling and his passing numbers aren't getting any better. There's always a chance he has an explosive game that reminds people why he's so amazing, but barring that it's very likely that we'll cut him from the "live contenders" next week. The one advantage he has over last year is Michigan's improved record, but his personal numbers just aren't there this season. Kansas State's Collin Klein is even getting more press now as a run-first quarterback than Robinson.

Baylor's Robert Griffin III had another solid game in another Baylor nail-biter. Over the past two weeks the Bears have won two games by 4 points total, and Griffin has thrown 6 touchdown passes and run for 156 yards. Baylor's woeful 4-3 record has turned into a respectable 6-3, and with next week's game against Oklahoma Griffin could make a move. He's one of many who still have a small chance to win the trophy, and a more realistic shot at being in the top three or going to New York.

Oklahoma State is the most important team in the race right now. Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden are both candidates, but Blackmon's chances are very small while Weeden has become the flavor of the week, topping a lot of people's lists. I don't think he's a true contender unless Oklahoma State wins out; at that point, he might be the favorite. For now, he's in no danger of dropping off our list and will continue to move up with each Cowboy win, but the make or break game is, of course, Oklahoma, whose Landry Jones is a lesser choice in almost every way. Remember that there is no Big Twelve title game, so Weeded has exactly two games to prove he deserves to be the Heisman winner, even as some other candidates play an extra game. The good news is that the OK-OK State game is on December 3rd, so it's much the same thing. And as we noted, few of the candidates will be involved in conference title games. 

We've started cutting the list to make it more manageable, and the first three to go are the obvious: Marcus Lattimore and Ryan Broyles, both out with injury for the season, and Luke Kuechly, who may set an NCAA record for tackles for Boston College. For Kuechly, the Butkus award will have to be his Heisman.

Clemson's Tajh Boyd holds on this week but just barely; he and Denard Robinson are on the short list of players that are losing viability. The Oklahoma-Baylor game will determine whether Landry Jones or Robert Griffin remains a viable candidate, and Justin Blackmon will need a big game against Iowa State to prove he still belongs. Basically the top six—and Weedon, providing Oklahoma State doesn't lose—are safe, but any of the other five have an uphill battle in a year that's turning out very good for the Heisman race.

2011 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 11: Who is left for LSU to beat?

The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

Louisiana State and Oklahoma State are the clear #1 and #2 teams in the country right now, both undefeated members of the two toughest conferences in 2011. But LSU has another distinction: they've defeated the #3 and #4 teams. This creates a problem if Oklahoma State loses a game, and #3 Alabama and #4 Oregon move into the top three.

Neither really deserves a rematch. Alabama lost at home, and that should settle the matter regardless of how close the game was. And Oregon lost 40-27, and the game wasn't even that close. Both teams could have prevailed; the Crimson Tide could have made any of the missed field goals, and Oregon just had to hold onto the ball on several punt returns and they would have been competitive. But they had their chance, and didn't win. Why should LSU have to "prove" it, like in a childhood game of HORSE?

With Oregon's win over Stanford, the Cardinal slide to #6 and lost their shot at a national title. They're behind the Ducks, who don't deserve a rematch, so Stanford is out, too. Boise State, always in the back of people's minds, also blew it on a missed field goal for the 2nd straight year. But both these teams have a better argument than Oklahoma, who lost to a Texas Tech team that has been blown out three straight weeks. Should the Sooners beat the Cowboys in a few weeks, it'll be a real mess. If that happens, we probably won't rank them above Alabama and Oregon on résumé, but they would be the logical opponent for LSU in a national championship game.

How about Clemson? How about no. Their biggest win is over Virginia Tech, but other than that they've looked pedestrian, including last week's last-second win over Wake Forest. Virginia Tech's biggest win is now Arkansas State (the Hokies beat former #17 Georgia Tech 37-26 last Thursday). Then there's Houston, undefeated and playing very well these days, but with an easier schedule than Boise State who at least beat a now-surging Georgia handily in week one.

Another interesting question is, what if Arkansas beats LSU? We have the Razorbacks #5, as they've only lost to Alabama. A win over the Tigers would lock the three teams together at 11-1. In every case the Tide should still rank above Arkansas, but does it go Alabama-Arkansas-LSU or LSU-Alabama-Arkansas? I'd go with the former if a blowout, the latter if a narrow Arkansas win. LSU, most likely, would get the nod for the SEC title game in that case since the BCS standings would be the ultimate tiebreaker—and even if Alabama was a few spots ahead, LSU's win over the Tide would give them the edge according to the SEC's rules.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 11 (thru 11/12/2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Louisiana State	10-0	[email protected] 9-6ot, Oregon 40-27, @WVA 47-21, Auburn 45-10
3	2	Oklahoma State	10-0	wKState 52-45, @Texas 38-26
5	3	Alabama	9-1	L LSU 9-6ot; wArk 38-14, @PennSt 27-11
6	4	Oregon	9-1	[email protected] 40-27; [email protected] 53-30
7	5	Arkansas	9-1	[email protected] 38-14; wSCar 44-28, Aub 38-14
2	6	Stanford	9-1	L Oregon 53-30; [email protected] 54-46ot
4	7	Boise State	8-1	L TCU 36-35; [email protected] 35-21
8	8	Oklahoma	8-1	L TxTech 41-38; [email protected] 58-17, =Texas 55-17
9	9	Clemson	9-1	[email protected] 31-17; [email protected] 23-3, Aub 38-24
10	10	Houston	10-0
12	11	Virginia Tech	9-1	L Clemson 23-3; wArkSt 26-7, @GTech 37-26
13	12	Wisconsin	8-2	[email protected] 33-29, @MichSt 37-31; wNeb 48-17
14	13	Nebraska	8-2	L N'west 28-25, @Wisc 48-17; wMichSt 24-3, @PennSt 17-14
15	14	Michigan St	8-2	[email protected] 31-13, @Neb 24-3; wWisc 37-31, Mich 28-14
16	15	South Carolina	8-2	L Auburn 16-13, @Ark 44-28; [email protected] 45-42
--	16	TCU	8-2	[email protected] 50-48, SMU 40-33ot; [email protected] 36-35
18	17	Georgia	8-2	L SCar 45-42, BoiseSt 35-21; wAuburn 45-7
11	18	Penn State	8-2	L Nebraska 17-14, Alabama 27-11
20	19	Southern Miss	9-1	[email protected] 26-20
21	20	Southern Cal	8-2	[email protected] 43-22, Stan 54-46ot
22	21	Kansas State	8-2	L Oklahoma 58-17, @OKst 52-45
25	22	Michigan	8-2	[email protected] 24-16, @MichSt 28-14
--	23	Arkansas State	8-2	[email protected] 33-15, @VTech 26-7
--	24	West Virginia	7-3	[email protected] 49-23, Lou 38-35, LSU 47-21; [email protected] 24-21
19	25	Cincinnati	7-2	[email protected] 45-23, WVA 24-21
		out:
17	--	Georgia Tech	7-3	[email protected] 24-21, @Miami 24-7, VTech 37-26; wClem 31-17
23	--	Texas	6-3	[email protected] 17-5, =Oklahoma 55-17, OKst 38-26
24	--	Auburn	6-4	[email protected] 38-24, @Ark 38-14, @LSU 45-10, @GA 45-7; [email protected] 16-13

 

 

The Big Ten's 8-2 teams are locked up in three-way tie from #12 to #14, and it's looking like there will be a Wisconsin-Michigan State rematch in the Big Ten title game. Nebraska beat Penn State who falls to #18, but the Cornhuskers have two conference losses to the Spartans' one. The Badgers still have to beat the Nittany Lions but I can't see Penn State playing with much heart on the road.

South Carolina and Georgia move up to #15 and #17. The Gamecocks beat the Bulldogs early in the year, but Georgia destroyed Auburn last weekend 45-7 and looks headed to the SEC title game, where they can cause a major shakeup by defeating LSU. TCU leaps back into the top 25 in a big way at #16. The Horned Frogs are 3 points away from being undefeated and upset Boise on the road, 36-35, which compares favorably with Georgia's 14-point home loss to the Broncose.

At #19 Southern Miss is the lowest-rated 1-loss team, with no big wins and a loss to 4-6 Marshall, but they're on a collision course with Houston in the C-USA. Southern Cal, Kansas State, and Michigan, all 8-2, move up to #20, #21, and #22, with résumés that include either losses to non-top 25 teams and/or blowout losses, coupled with a lack of top 25 wins. This group also includes 8-2 Arkansas State, who joins the top 25 at #23. The sad thing about the AP top 25? Arkansas State doesn't have a single top 25 vote, but I-AA Georgia Southern does.

West Virginia beat Cincinnati, so we moved them in at #24. They don't have the very best résumé among the 3-loss teams—that would be Notre Dame, and then Baylor—but theirs is fairly solid and they knocked off a 2-loss team on Saturday. The Bearcats hold on at #25.

Falling out: Georgia Tech is a decent candidate to get back in soon, but 7-3 Virginia (who beat them previously) will have to get there first; Texas lost to Missouri 17-5 and has no wins to brag about; and 6-4 Auburn still hasn't lost to a non-top 25 team so if they finish 9-4 they're a sure shot for the end-of-season rankings.

2011 Heisman Race, week 10: Luck, Moore still on top by default

After ten weeks we have our final list of 15 candidates that we'll start whittling down over the next 5 weeks. On top are quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Kellen Moore; neither had a Heisman-like game last weekend but stay on top because of season-long performance...and the fact that Trent Richardson didn't have an explosive performance against LSU in a losing effort.

Andrew Luck completed 20 of 30 passes for 206 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception against Oregon State. Kellen Moore was 18 of 31 for 219 yards, but he did throw for 5 touchdown passes against UNLV. Their stats are pretty even for the year: both are over 70% in completions; Luck has a few hundred more yards (with an extra game); Moore has 29 TD passes to Luck's 26; both have 5 interceptions. Lately the Cardinal are playing much tougher teams—culminating in the Oregon game Saturday—while Boise's schedule gets weaker after the TCU game. But as of right now, their opposition to date hasn't been radically different. Moore now holds the all-time NCAA record for wins for a starting quarterback. Russell Wilson had a good game last week, throwing 3 touchdown passes and rushing for 76 yards and another score, but his candidacy is based on taking Wisconsin to the top level; he seemed to be doing that but in their two losses he came up just short. He's a distant 3rd in our book and the only reason he hasn't fallen is that no one is really pushing for the top slots.

Case Keenum of Houston might be at the point where he's pushing for the top slots, however. Last Saturday he scored four times, twice on passes and twice on the ground. Keenum has set a number of all-time NCAA records and he's making a big move, but ultimately Houston's schedule of cupcakes will probably hold him back. He moves up one spot to #4, replacing Denard Robinson, who came up short—controversially—on several attempts from the 3-yard line in a loss to Iowa. Even had the TD been allowed on replay, Michigan's next plays were from the 2-point conversion distance so the outcome of the game—which the Wolverines lost 24-16—would probably not have changed.

2011 Heisman Race after week 10

1. Andrew Luck, QB-Stanford (9-0)
   194-272 71% 2424yd 26TD 5int; 29rsh 147yd 5.1av 2TD 0fmb; 1rec 13yds 0TD
   Luck had 3 TDs and just over 200 yards passing with one interception.
   
2. Kellen Moore, QB-Boise State (8-0)
   192-259 74% 2229yd 29TD 5int; 10rsh -16yd -1.6av 0TD 0fmb
   Moore had just 219 yards, but 5 touchdown passes.
3. Russell Wilson, QB-Wisconsin (7-2)
   144-201 72% 2238yd 21TD 3int; 48rsh 276yd 5.8av 4TD 1fmb; 1rec 25yds 1TD
   Wilson threw 3 TD passes and ran for another against Purdue.
4. ^ Case Keenum, QB-Houston (9-0)
   257-347 74% 3626yd 34TD 3int; 32rsh 27yd 0.8av 2TD 2fmb
   Just two TD passes last week instead of nine, but he ran for 2 more.
5. v Denard Robinson, QB-Michigan (7-2)
   102-192 53% 1617yd 13TD 12int; 147rsh 893yd 6.1av 10TD 1fmb
   Robinson rushed for 55 and went 17 of 37 in a loss to Iowa.
6. ^ Trent Richardson, RB-Alabama (8-1)
   172rsh 1078yd 6.3av 17TD 0fmb; 23rec 292yd 1TD; 66ret yds 0TD
   Richardson had 89 rushing and 80 receiving yards in the loss to LSU.
7. v LaMichael James, RB-Oregon (8-1)
   133rsh 1061yd 8.0ave 9TD 0fmb; 12rec 165yd 1TD; 137ret yds 1TD
   James has 156 yards against Washington but Richardson gets the top RB nod.
8. Robert Griffin III, QB-Baylor (5-3)
   202-273 74% 2781yd 26TD 4int; 107rsh 375yd 3.5av 4TD 3fmb; 15 rec yds
   Griffin had three passing and one rushing TD in a win over Missouri.
   
9. Justin Blackmon, WR-Oklahoma State (9-0)
   87rec 1039yd 12TD 2fmb; 3rsh 6yds 2.0 ave 0TD; 2ret yds 0TD 1fmb
   Blackmon exploded for 205 yards in a close win over Kansas State, offsetting 2 fumbles.
   
10. Landry Jones, QB-Oklahoma (8-1)
    254-393 65% 3349yd 28TD 9int; 17rsh 22yd 1.3ave 2TD 0fmb
    Jones had a tame, 255 yard, 2 TD game against Texas A&M.
11. ^ Brandon Weeden, QB-Oklahoma State (9-0)
    282-391 72% 3212yd 26TD 9int; 14rsh -85yd -6.0av 0TD 0fmb
    Weeden threw 2 interceptions but passed for 502 yards and four scores against K-State
12. v Ryan Broyles, WR-Oklahoma (8-1)
    83rec 1157yd 10TD 1fmb; 196ret yds 0TDs 1fmb
    Broyles had 87 yards on 2 catches but tore his ACL and is lost for the year.
13. v Marcus Lattimore, RB-South Carolina (7-2)
    163rsh 818yd 5.0av 10TD 2fmb; 19rec 182yd 1TD
    Lattimore is out for the season with injury.
14. Tajh Boyd, QB-Clemson (8-1)
    195-318 61% 2674yd 25TD 5int; 89rsh 164yd 1.8av 4TD 0fmb
    Clemson didn't play last week.
15. Luke Kuechly, LB-Boston College (2-7)
    150 tackles, 2 interceptions, 0 sacks
    Kuechly had 20 tackles against FSU in another BC loss
    

Trent Richardson didn't hurt himself in the loss to LSU, but he didn't do enough to get Alabama the win and put himself among the top candidates on our list. With 89 yards rushing and 80 receiving, he pretty much was all of Alabama's offense, but he couldn't will the team to win the way great players are supposed to. Nevertheless, his candidacy isn't hurt and he can keep moving up in the coming weeks. He finally overtakes LaMichael James as the #1 running back despite James' 156 yards against Washington. Comparing their full seasons and opponents, Richardson has faced tougher teams and has a stellar 17 rushing TDs to James' 9; moreover, his performance against LSU (89 rushing, 80 receiving, 23 return yards) surpassed James' (54 rushing, 61 receiving, -4 return). James is still averaging over 150 yards per game so a big effort against Stanford and a strong finish could reignite his candidacy, but missing two games and failing to reach 70 yards in three others makes his performances look inconsistent.

Baylor's Robert Griffin III had a great game in a tight win over Missouri, totalling 4 touchdowns and leading his team to a 3-point victory. Baylor's 3 losses hold Griffen back, but statistically—and in importance to his team—he's up there with anyone. Justin Blackmon had his most productive of the season as Oklahoma State edged Kansas State; he had 205 receiving yards and caught 2 TD passes. He also had two fumbles—one after a catch, and one on a punt return—that could have lost the game for the Cowboys, but his other efforts offset those mistakes. Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles was unfortunately lost for the year with an ACL tear, so Blackmon will finish as the top wide receiver. His QB, Brandon Weeden, also had some mistakes (2 interceptions) while ultimately contributing to the K-State win in a big way with over 500 yards and 4 TD passes.

Marcus Lattimore continues to slide down the list as his season has been over for weeks. Clemson was idle so Tajh Boyd doesn't move. Our final listed candidate in the top 15 is a defensive player. We thought we'd add Tyrann Mathieu if LSU won; after all, undefeated, #1 teams should logically have a Heisman candidate. But Mathieu's stats are really underwhelming. He has forced four fumbles and returned two of those for touchdowns, and that's what his name is built on this year. But other than that, he has 2 interceptions, 1.5 sacks, and 47 tackles. On offense he's averaging 7.9 yards per punt return. With those numbers, and a 1-game suspension and cheap shot in the Alabama game, why list him when there's another defensive player who should get the token recognition?

Boston College's Luke Kuechly has 150 tackles in 8 games. That puts him on pace for 200 tackles, which would be an NCAA single-season record. He can't help it if the Eagles' offense is terrible and can't win games. He might not survive the cut next week but is at least on someone's list now.

Week 11 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Stanford, Oregon showdown; how will Penn State respond?

There are quite a few big games and conference-race-determining contests in week 11. The biggest game is between Stanford and Oregon and has Pac-12 and national title ramifications. But with the Penn State news still swirling around at breakneck speed, the Nebraska-Penn State contest takes on a surreal tone. Already important in the Big Ten race, the game has gone beyond the classic matchup of traditional powers that it would have been.

Other important games for conference races include Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech in the ACC, and Auburn vs. Georgia in the SEC. TCU and Boise State basically settle the Mountain West championship on Saturday, too.

Here is our take on the 10 biggest games from Thurday through Saturday:

Louisiana Lafayette (7-2) at Arkansas State (7-2)
Vegas Line/Spread: Arkansas State by 11 (over/under 58)
Game comparisons: Arkansas State 78%
Strength Power Rating: Arkansas State 39-27
Yardage Analysis: Ark. St. 41-21   per-attempt: Ark. St. 38-24
Tufte Method: Arkansas State 32-19
Analysis: Let's not forget about the Sun Belt. UL-Lafayette has been a surprise team this year, challenging our pre-season favorite Red Wolves for the conference title. ULL has lost only to #3 Oklahoma State and Western Kentucky, while Arkansas State has fallen only to #12 Virginia Tech and 6-3 Illinois. Neither team has really defeated any solid opponents, but the winner will be 8-2 and hold a win over the other and deserves to be in the top 25. We're sticking with Arkansas State, the better team and also the home team for this game.
Prediction: Arkansas State 38, Louisiana-Lafayette 31

#6 Oregon (8-1) at #2 Stanford (9-0)
Vegas Line/Spread: Stanford by 3 (over/under 68)
Game comparisons: Stanford 66%
Strength Power Rating: Stanford 40-33
Yardage Analysis: Stanford 41-31  per-attempt: Oregon 38-31
Tufte Method: Stanford 30-25
Analysis: The oddsmakers are basically calling this game a tossup if not for Stanford's home field edge. But the Cardinal have played better and more consistently than the Ducks, who have a weaker defense than Stanford. That inconsistency does give Oregon a chance at an upset that would kill Stanford's title hopes, but they have some personnel issues with Darren Thomas and LaMichael James still both less than 100% from recent injuries. Stanford will be at their best to avenge last year's only loss; the unlucky Ducks faced #1 LSU in their opener and now travel to the #2, and those should be their only two losses.
Prediction: Stanford 41, Oregon 34

#14 Nebraska (7-2) at #11 Penn State (8-1)
Vegas Line/Spread: Nebraska by 3 1/2 (over/under 43)
Game comparisons: Penn State 52%
Strength Power Rating: Penn State 18.56, Nebraska 18.52
Yardage Analysis: Penn State 20-17   per-attempt: Penn State 20-14
Tufte Method: Penn State 19-16
Analysis: Nothing much matters in this game except psychology, which makes it very hard to pick. Without trying to figure too much out, it makes sense that in the aftermath of the scandal, Penn State will play out of their heads at home and then slump on the road. This looked like a close game going in—check the Strength Power Rating's 0.04 point spread—and I haven't watched the line move, but I look for a sloppy game with turnarounds and turnovers (something Nebraska often gets into anyway), and a miracle win at the end for the Panthers, who want to get another victory for JoePa and put the events of the past week behind them. It could be their last win of the season as they go 1-2 to finish out the Big Ten, ceding the Leaders division to Wisconsin.
Prediction: Penn State 20, Nebraska 19

#12 Virginia Tech (8-1) at #17 Georgia Tech (7-2)
Vegas Line/Spread: Virginia Tech by 1 (over/under 50)
Game comparisons: Georgia Tech 52%
Strength Power Rating: Georgia Tech 24-23
Yardage Analysis: Virginia Tech 22-21  per-attempt: Georgia Tech 49-27
Tufte Method: Georgia Tech 22-21
Analysis: This is Thursday night's big game, and it should decide the ACC Coastal Division. There are several things in Georgia Tech's favor: they've defeated a good team (Clemson, who beat the Hokies), they're at home, and on a per-play basis their offense is the best in the country bar none. While Virginia Tech hasn't played many tough teams at all—and failed miserably in their one challenge against the Tigers—they still play good defense, and they have the all-important week off before facing the Yellow Jackets. Until proven otherwise, teams with two weeks to prepare seem to do a lot better against Georgia Tech, and that gives them the advantage.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, Georgia Tech 14

#24 Auburn (6-3) at #18 Georgia (7-2)
Vegas Line/Spread: Georgia by 12 1/2 (over/under 53)
Game comparisons: Georgia 77%
Strength Power Rating: Georgia 36-22
Yardage Analysis: Georgia 41-16  per-attempt: Georgia 38-21
Tufte Method: Georgia 31-16
Analysis: The Vegas line looked excessive at first, but the Strength Power Rating generally agrees that Georgia should be a near-two touchdown favorite at home. Auburn hasn't lost to any bad teams, in fact they've only lost to top 10 teams Alabama, Arkansas, and Clemson; they also hold a win over South Carolina, the lone SEC team to beat Georgia. The Bulldogs are on a roll which is great for them but are they due for their first "down" game in weeks? Playing at home and with hopes for an SEC title alive, they should be on top of their game but Auburn is pesky and will not make it easy.
Prediction: Georgia 28, Auburn 25

TCU (7-2) at #4 Boise State (8-0)
Vegas Line/Spread: Boise State by 15 (over/under 58 1/2)
Game comparisons: Boise State 82%
Strength Power Rating: Boise State 39-23
Yardage Analysis: Boise State 33-17  per-attempt: Boise State 35-28
Tufte Method: Boise State 27-18
Analysis: A few weeks ago this would have been more than a 2+ touchdown blowout prediction, as TCU was reeling and Boise had yet to look invincible. But the Horned Frogs have played well since, and Boise looked sluggish against Air Force and even UNLV. Maybe they're saving it for this game, which at the beginning of the year loomed larger on the schedule. And maybe the Frogs are peaking at the right time. The last two times these teams met the contests were low-scoring and close; this one is expected (by the oddsmakers) to be higher-scoring and not very close. We don't think Boise will lose at home and TCU's pass defense will have trouble containing Moore. The Broncos might want to put on a show for the pollsters but they better focus on just winning the game.
Prediction: Boise State 26, TCU 17

#15 Michigan State (7-2) at Iowa (6-3)
Vegas Line/Spread: Michigan State by 3 (over/under 47)
Game comparisons: Michigan State 57%
Strength Power Rating: Michigan State 24-20
Yardage Analysis: MSU 27-14  per-attempt: MSU 24-21
Tufte Method: MSU 24-13
Analysis: The Big Ten Legends division is one of the most competitive divisions in the FBS. Currently, Michigan State is on top but Iowa still controls their own destiny, having revitalized their chances with a win over Michigan. This weekend they host Michigan State, whom they slaughtered in Iowa City last year 37-6. The Spartans want revenge but that's harder to find on the road. What gives MSU the edge is that tough defenses give Iowa problems. They couldn't move the ball at Penn State and Michigan State's ground defenses and yardage defense is similar to the Nittany Lions'. Iowa's pass defense is also poor this year which should allow Kirk Cousins to have a decent day. Iowa has played well at home this year and they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points in four years, so it will be down to the wire. But the Hawks got lucky last week and can't count on it happening two weeks in a row.
Prediction: Michigan State 20, Iowa 16

#25 Michigan (7-2) at Illinois (6-3)
Vegas Line/Spread: Pick 'em (over/under 49 1/2)
Game comparisons: Michigan 65%
Strength Power Rating: Michigan 22-16
Yardage Analysis: Illinois 21-17  per-attempt: Michigan 30-27
Tufte Method: Illinois 20-18
Analysis: With Denard Robinson not cranking out the yardage like earlier in the season, the Michigan offense has been faltering. But the defense is still playing very well, a situation very unlike last year. The Wolverines have dropped 2 of 3 while the Illini have lost three straight, scoring a total of 28 points and losing by 10, 7, and 3. If recent trends continue this will be a low-scoring game.
Prediction: Michigan 20, Illinois 14

West Virginia (6-3) at #19 Cincinnati (7-1)
Vegas Line/Spread: Cincinnati by 3 1/2 (over/under 66 1/2)
Game comparisons: Cincinnati 64%
Strength Power Rating: Cincinnati 45-38
Yardage Analysis: WVA 44-31  per-attempt: WVA 34-32
Tufte Method: WVA 34-24
Analysis: By scoring numbers Cincinnati should win a high-scoring game by around a touchdown; the yardage numbers tell a different story, with West Virginia the winner, perhaps by quite a bit. Cincinnati has moved into the top 25 by winning close games, the last two by a field goal each, and now leads the Big East outright. West Virginia stumbled against Syracuse and Louisville and finds themselves two games back. Because the Big East race by definition must be obfuscated, West Virginia will have to pull off the upset.
Prediction: West Virginia 40, Cincinnati 21

Washington (6-3) at #20 USC (7-2)
Vegas Line/Spread: USC by 11 1/2 (over/under 63)
Game comparisons: USC 70%
Strength Power Rating: USC 41-30
Yardage Analysis: USC 38-31  per-attempt: USC 37-34
Tufte Method: USC 27-23
Analysis: Washington has only lost to Stanford and Oregon, but USC is playing great lately and they're at home where they took Stanford into triple overtime. Our only question is does USC cover, and given that the Strength Power Rating is in-line with the spread, and that includes USC's early games where they played very poorly, that the Trojans should win by at least two touchdowns. When Washington loses, they lose big and this game will be somewhere between their other road losses to Nebraska (13 points) and Stanford (44 points).
Prediction: USC 48, Washington 30

Five undefeated teams left - Who finishes with an 'O' ?

Just a few weeks there were 10 undefeated teams. Now there are just five. Which are most likely to go undefeated for the entire season?

When we looked at the subject last time in this post, there was only one team that looked likely to be undefeated come December 4th: Boise State. The Broncos are still on track to do so, of course, and now one more looks like an odds-on favorite to do the trick. Five teams in the group of 10 have lost: Wisconsin, Alabama, Oklahoma, and the two teams we gave the lowest odds, Clemson and Kansas State.

The five undefeated teams (as of November 5, 2011) in order of likelihood to finish the season (pre-bowl games) undefeated:

1. Boise State (8-0); Odds: 75%; favored: 12-0; cume: 12-0.
   Boise is still favored to go 12-0, but their odds actually went down from a few weeks ago! We gave them an 80% chance back then, and two wins later, they've been demoted to 75%. How is that? Well, the teams they beat didn't dent their odds much, so they didn't gain anything by dispatching Air Force and UNLV. Also, TCU's rating has improved while Boise's has declined, making that game less of a certainty as it seemed then. It's still at 84% for Boise, but between the Horned Frogs, San Diego State, and surprising Wyoming, the Broncos have a 25% chance of losing. Oh wait, we forgot New Mexico...we'll give them that one.
2. LSU (9-0); Odds: 90% (66%); favored: 13-0; cume: 13-0.
   LSU makes the big jump in probability, from 30% to a 2 in 3 chance of going 13-0. That's almost completely for beating Alabama. With the Tide hurdle out of the way, the Tigers have just three games left, and Arkansas is the only one of note. LSU is at home for that game. The projected SEC title game is more of a challenge: assuming it's Georgia, they'll be on the road in Atlanta. But the odds still favor the Tigers to run the table and play for the national championship.
3. Stanford (9-0); Odds: 56% (48%); favored: 13-0; cume: 12-1.
   The big hurdle is still Oregon. California, and even Notre Dame, don't look like a big challenge any more, though they did at the beginning of the year. The Cardinal have just over a 50/50 chance of going 12-0, and just under a 50/50 chance of going 13-0. That doesn't mean we think they'll lose to Arizona State (or whoever) for the Pac-12 crown, that's just how cumulative odds work. Basically Stanford is equally likely to go undefeated or have 1 loss...with that loss most likely coming from Oregon next week, even though the Cardinal are a decent favorite in that one at home.
4. Houston (9-0): Odds: 61% (45%); favored: 13-0; cume: 12-1.
   Houston was just a borderline top 25 team during our last visit, but they've upped their game significantly lately and now it looks like they can finish out undefeated. Tulsa is their toughest test, and if they win that they'll play in the C-USA title game, probably against Southern Miss, another test but one they can win. Like Stanford, Houston is just under 50/50 odds to be 13-0.
5. Oklahoma State (9-0): Odds: 43%; favored: 11-1; cume: 11-1.
   The Cowboys were 7th out of 10 in likelihood last time we checked, and they're the least likely to finish undefeated of the five teams left. That's because they play Oklahoma, a game which is basically a 50/50 proposition itself. Add to that a couple of minor road tests at Texas Tech and Iowa State, and the Cowboys are expected to finish 11-1 either game-by-game or cumulatively. But let's not fool ourselves: it's the Oklahoma game that should make them 11-1 or 12-0.

Adding up the odds, it still appears—like it did a few weeks ago—that we're on track to have three undefeated teams. Assuming two of those are Boise State and LSU, that means that one of Stanford, Houston, or Oklahoma State will join them. If it's Stanford or Oklahoma State, then that team will play LSU for the national title. If it's Houston, then maybe—maybe—Boise State has a shot to face the Tigers, but they shouldn't hold their breath.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - week 10: Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma for 2nd place?

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 10 (11/5/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	BCS rank
3	1	LSU	12.1	0.9	BCS Title	9	0	1
2	2	Oklahoma St	11.2	0.8	BCS Title	9	0	2
1	3	Alabama	10.5	1.5	Sugar	8	1	3
4	4	Oklahoma	10.4	1.6	Fiesta	8	1	6
5	5	Boise St	11.4	0.6	Sugar	8	0	5
6	6	Stanford	12.0	1.0	Rose	9	0	4
8	7	Arkansas	9.8	2.2		8	1	8
9	8	Oregon	10.4	1.7	Fiesta	8	1	7
10	9	Virginia Tech	11.0	2.0	Orange	8	1	10
11	10	Clemson	9.9	3.1		8	1	9
7	11	South Carolina	9.5	2.5		7	2	13
13	12	Wisconsin	10.2	2.8	Rose	7	2	18
12	13	Nebraska	8.9	3.1		7	2	19
18	14	Penn State	8.7	3.3		8	1	12
16	15	Georgia	9.4	3.6		7	2	15
15	16	Auburn	7.7	4.3		6	3	20
19	17	Michigan St	9.3	3.7		7	2	17
14	18	Kansas St	8.2	3.9		7	2	14
23	19	Houston	11.3	1.7		9	0	11
22	20	Texas	7.8	4.2		6	2	16
21	21	Ohio State	8.4	3.6		6	3	--
24	22	Georgia Tech	7.9	4.1		7	2	21
17	23	Texas A&M	7.6	4.4		5	4	--
--	24	Southern Miss	10.6	2.4		8	1	22
--	25	Cincinnati	9.6	2.4	Orange	7	1	23

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl:	Alabama vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

A lot happened last weekend! Of course LSU's win puts them in the national championship game, and Alabama is relegated to the Sugar Bowl. Not only that, but Nebraska's loss puts them out of the Rose Bowl and probably the BCS bowl race, even if they finish in the top 14. Now we have them in 2nd in the Legends, which doesn't give them a rematch shot at Wisconsin. The Badgers end up with the highest projected rank so they get the top spot of the Leaders and the Rose Bowl berth. The Big Ten is completely up for grabs; Penn State is 2 games ahead in the Leaders but they have yet to play Wisconsin and could easily lose that and another game. And due to recent events, even if they finish in the lower part of the top 14 they probably won't get picked for a BCS bowl.

Though the Badgers are on the edge as far as finishing #13 in our projection, if they make the top 14 they stand a good chance of being picked. The team travels well, for one thing, and as we've mentioned before there aren't a lot of options for the bowls this year as SEC and Big Twelve teams are going to crowd the top 14, leaving several out of luck due to the 2-team-per-conference limit.

The most interesting question is: who will be #2? Can Alabama recover and get a rematch with LSU? Or will it be Oklahoma State, Stanford, Boise State? Boise is going to have a tough time getting to #2 under almost any circumstances, while Stanford has to beat Oregon and the uncertainty surrounding that has them gaining almost nothing before the final standings. Oklahoma State controls their destiny, most likely. If they lose to Oklahoma, however, the Sooners become a big player, and would end up neck-and-neck with Alabama. So if Stanford falls by the wayside and Oklahoma wins out, it's pretty close between the Tide and the Sooners. Oklahoma will have the advantage with the computers, since they love the Big 12, and while the voters go with Alabama right now, the desire to see something other than a rematch of a 5-field-goal game could prompt voters to move Oklahoma ahead of the Tide. They might not have to pass Alabama in the polls, either, just get close enough so that a big computer advantage pushes them to the top.

But assuming an Oklahoma State win, Oklahoma is in the Fiesta Bowl and where we previously saw Boise State we now see Oregon. It's a tossup between the two as to which the Fiesta Bowl would want, and I don't think they'd care much either way between a 12-0 Boise and 10-2 Oregon. So if the Sugar wants Boise, the Fiesta will go with Oregon. The Sugar would want Boise if a good Big Ten team isn't available, and with Nebraska's loss, Wisconsin perhaps in the Rose if they win out (and not a good choice if they don't), and Penn State tainted by scandal, the Sugar may want an undefeated Boise State against Alabama to try to avenge Georgia's loss. With the Tide there, they've got fans in the seats in New Orleans already. And it would create drama: if Boise can actually win, do they deserve to get votes as national champion?

With so few games left, the "fuzzy logic" method is becoming less logical that just picking the remaining games and projecting based on that. So after next week—when the Oregon/Stanford issue is resolved—we'll be switching to that tactic.

2011 Conference Final Standings Projection - week 10: Next weekend decides many races

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season

Updated for games through November 5, 2011 (week 10)

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

Week 10 Note: As of this week, the fuzziness has become a lot less fuzzy. The projected results are starting more and more to align with the current conference standings. Coupled with next week's slate of games which should decide many of the races, this may be the last conference projection. After next weekend, with only 2-3 games left in most races, it's easy enough to look at matters game-by-game; scoring by partial wins is less meaningful.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Clemson	6.3	1.7	5	1
2	2	Florida State	5.8	2.2	4	2
3	3	Wake Forest	4.5	3.5	4	2
4	4	North Carolina State	3.7	4.3	2	3
5	5	Maryland	2.0	6.0	1	5
6	6	Boston College	1.9	6.1	1	5
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	6.4	1.6	4	1
2	2	Georgia Tech	4.7	3.3	4	2
3	5	Virginia	3.8	4.2	3	2
4	3	Miami FL	3.8	4.2	3	3
5	4	North Carolina	3.0	5.0	2	4
6	6	Duke	2.2	5.8	1	4

Virginia won again, beating Maryland, and coupled with their earlier win over Miami moves them into #3 in the Coastal. North Carolina fell to North Carolina State and will probably finish 5th.

Both divisional races now project the same as the current standings, but a couple of key games could change that. Wake Forest faces Clemson and if they win, there would be a 3-way tie at the top of the Atlantic. The Deacons would have the edge in the tiebreaker since both of their losses came from Coastal teams.

And in the Coastal, Georgia Tech plays Virginia Tech on Saturday and if the Wreck win, they'll tie the Hokies for first place. If it ends that way, Virginia Tech has the advantage since both of Georgia Tech's losses were from Coastal teams. Virginia is one of those, and they would control their own destiny in that scenario.
 

rank	lw	Big East	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Cincinnati	5.6	1.4	3	0
2	4	Louisville	4.2	2.8	3	1
3	2	Pittsburgh	3.8	3.2	2	2
4	3	West Virginia	3.6	3.4	2	2
5	5	Connecticut	3.6	3.4	2	2
6	6	Rutgers	3.5	3.5	3	2
7	8	Syracuse	2.0	5.0	1	3
8	7	South Florida	1.7	5.3	0	4

Here's one conference that won't be decided next weekend. But last place might be, as South Florida travels to Syracuse. USF lost in overtime to Rutgers and falls below the Orange even though Syracuse also lost (to UConn).

At the top, Cincy held on with yet another 3-point win (over Pitt) while Louisville upset West Virginia. This coming weekend the top four compete again: it's Cincy vs. West Virginia and Louisville vs. Pittsburgh. But don't look for the race to be over any time soon, as they'll only just be over the 1/2-way hump next Saturday.

Big Ten
rank	lw	Leaders division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Penn State	5.7	2.3	5	0
2	2	Ohio State	5.4	2.6	3	2
3	3	Wisconsin	5.4	2.6	3	2
4	4	Illinois	3.7	4.3	2	3
5	5	Purdue	3.2	4.8	2	3
6	6	Indiana	0.4	7.6	0	6
rank	lw	Legends division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Michigan State	6.0	2.0	4	1
2	1	Nebraska	4.9	3.1	3	2
3	4	Iowa	4.4	3.6	3	2
4	3	Michigan	4.0	4.0	3	2
5	5	Northwestern	3.0	5.0	2	4
6	6	Minnesota	1.8	6.2	1	4

The Leaders division may look calm and mostly settled, as Penn State was idle and holds a 2-game lead. But they have to play Nebraska this weekend. Then it's Ohio State and Wisconsin—in other words, the two teams tied for 2nd place.

The Legends is, of course, just how it's been all year—up for grabs. In the latest installment, we find Nebraska upset by Northwestern, dropping the 'Huskers to 2nd place in the projection, and a 3-way tie for 2nd in current standings. Like Penn State, they face a tough schedule, with the Lions followed by both Michigan and Iowa. Having already defeated the Spartans, they just need MSU to lose to either Iowa, Indiana, or Northwestern. The Hawkeyes just knocked Michigan for a loop and as mentioned last week control their own destiny.

rank	lw	Big Twelve	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oklahoma State	8.2	0.8	6	0
2	2	Oklahoma	7.4	1.6	5	1
3	3	Texas A&M	5.6	3.4	3	3
4	5	Kansas State	5.1	3.9	4	2
5	6	Texas	4.8	4.2	3	2
6	4	Missouri	4.5	4.5	2	4
7	8	Baylor	3.7	5.3	2	3
8	7	Texas Tech	2.7	6.3	2	4
9	9	Iowa State	2.5	6.5	2	4
10	10	Kansas	0.4	8.6	0	6

Missouri lost yet another close game, this time a 3-pointer to Baylor, dropping the Tigers to #6 and pumping the Bears up to #7. The lower half of the conference is far from settled.

The battle for #1 won't be decided until the Oklahoma teams play on December 3rd. Texas A&M looks like a distant but solid #3 despite losing back-to-back to Missouri and Oklahoma. They face Kansas State, who would take over at #3 with a win. They're already #3 in current standings, and move up to #4 in the projection despite losing to Oklahoma State, something that was already pretty much factored in.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oregon	8.3	0.7	6	0
2	2	Stanford	8.3	0.7	7	0
3	3	Washington	5.3	3.7	4	2
4	5	California	3.4	5.6	2	4
5	4	Oregon State	3.1	5.9	2	4
6	6	Washington State	2.0	7.0	1	5
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arizona State	5.8	3.2	4	2
2	2	USC	5.5	3.5	4	2
3	3	UCLA	5.5	3.5	4	2
4	4	Utah	3.9	5.1	2	4
5	5	Arizona	2.1	6.9	1	6
6	6	Colorado	0.7	8.3	0	6

Here's one of the conferences that has its long-awaited marquee game next weekend. Oregon and Stanford have been neck-and-neck at the top of the projection—and current standings—since the beginning of the season. The North division will finally find out who its champion is when the Ducks play the Cardinal in Stanford.

In the South, there has been much grumbling about UCLA's surge into a tie at the top of the standings. The grumbling goes like this: it's a 3-way tie, and since USC is ineligible and UCLA beat ASU, the Bruins will represent the South in the first Pac-12 championship game.

Not so fast. UCLA has to actually finish in a tie with Arizona State first. The have to play at Utah (no guarantee, for sure), Colorado at home (ok, close to a guarantee), and at USC. It's the last one that almost certainly gives UCLA another loss. ASU could lose another one, facing Washington State, Arizona, and California, but that path is definitely clearer. The odds favor the Sun Devils.

So the real downgrade in the South's representation just comes from the fact that ASU dropped another game. The Bruins have a ways to go if they want a rematch with Stanford or a shot at the Ducks.

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Georgia	6.3	1.7	5	1
2	2	South Carolina	5.7	2.3	5	2
3	3	Florida	3.3	4.7	3	4
4	4	Kentucky	2.4	5.6	1	4
5	5	Vanderbilt	1.7	6.3	1	5
6	6	Tennessee	1.4	6.6	0	5
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	LSU	7.5	0.5	6	0
2	1	Alabama	6.5	1.5	5	1
3	3	Arkansas	5.8	2.2	4	1
4	4	Auburn	4.7	3.3	4	2
5	5	Mississippi State	2.5	5.5	1	4
6	6	Mississippi	0.2	7.8	0	6

The SEC had its big game and now LSU is a clear #1 in the West. South Carolina lost to Arkansas leaving Georgia a clear #1 in the East. But neither team can relax. Georgia plays Auburn this coming weekend, and any loss drops them back into a tie (which they lose) with South Carolina. And in the South, a potential three-way tie could mean an interesting tiebreaker rule will be invoked.

If Arkansas can beat LSU (they play November 25th), they would tie LSU and Alabama for the top spot, with LSU beating Alabama beating Arkansas beating LSU. Who wins the tie-breaker? The team with the best BCS standing. That might be Alabama, since the game with LSU was basically a draw, and the Tide beat Arkansas 38-14. On the other hand, the rules state "unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team" which will almost certainly be the case; Alabama won't be 6 places ahead of LSU. If they're close, then the team that won head-to-head—LSU—would play the East winner.

CUSA
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Southern Miss	6.2	1.8	4	1
2	4	Marshall	4.4	3.6	3	2
3	3	East Carolina	4.2	3.8	3	2
4	2	Central Florida	4.2	3.8	2	3
5	5	UAB	2.2	5.8	1	5
6	6	Memphis	1.3	6.7	1	4
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Tulsa	7.6	0.4	5	0
2	2	Houston	6.7	1.3	5	0
3	3	Southern Methodist	5.1	2.9	4	2
4	4	Rice	2.9	5.1	2	4
5	5	UTEP	1.7	6.3	1	4
6	6	Tulane	1.5	6.5	1	5

Tulsa's win over Central Florida knocked the Knights down a couple of spots in the tight race for 2nd place in the East, while Southern Miss' win over East Carolina allowed suprising Marshall to look like the most likely #2. The Herd are the team that beat the Eagles, and they need them to lose again to have a shot at the East title. Marshall faces Tulsa next week, another reason they probably won't take the top spot.

In both divisions the current standings tell most of the story. But one thing we won't know for a few weeks is whether Houston or Tulsa will be #1 in the West. Neither has disappointed so far; the only differnce in their seasons is that Tulsa had a murderous pre-conference schedule, while Houston had a cakewalk by comparison. They don't play until November 25th.
 

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	3	Ohio	4.4	3.6	3	2
2	1	Temple	4.4	3.6	3	3
3	2	Miami OH	4.3	3.7	3	2
4	4	Kent State	3.9	4.1	2	3
5	5	Bowling Green	3.3	4.7	2	3
6	6	Buffalo	2.3	5.7	1	4
7	7	Akron	0.7	7.3	0	5
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Northern Illinois	6.7	1.3	4	1
2	1	Toledo	5.9	2.1	4	1
3	3	Western Michigan	5.0	3.0	3	2
4	4	Ball State	4.4	3.6	4	2
5	5	Eastern Michigan	3.7	4.3	3	2
6	6	Central Michigan	3.0	5.0	2	4

The MAC went topsy-turvy early last week, with both divisions seeing the projected #1 defeated and replaced. First in the West on Tuesday evening, Northern Illinois held on in a back-and-forth contest that was the complete opposite of LSU-Alabama. NIU prevailed 63-60 in regulation—that's right, no overtimes in that score. So the Huskies, who were actually our pre-season pick in the West, rebound back into the top spot.

Last Wednesday, Ohio beat Temple to replace the Owls as the projected #1 team, if only due to holding the tiebreaker. Temple plays Miami of Ohio this Wednesday, while Toledo plays Western Michigan on Tuesday.

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Boise State	6.4	0.6	3	0
2	2	TCU	6.4	0.6	4	0
3	3	San Diego State	3.9	3.1	2	2
4	4	Air Force	3.9	3.1	1	3
5	5	Wyoming	3.2	3.8	2	1
6	6	Colorado State	1.8	5.2	1	2
7	7	UNLV	1.6	5.4	1	2
8	8	New Mexico	0.8	6.2	0	4

Another conference with the #1 showdown occurring this weekend. The Boise State-TCU matchup is the Mountain West's version of Oregon vs. Stanford, though the spread on this one will be substantially larger.

Wyoming was unable to upset the Horned Frogs, which would have thrown a wrench in the projected standings. As it is, we're still looking for SDSU and Air Force to finish strong against the bottom of the pack and end up #3 and #4. Wyoming faces Air Force this week, and if they win they could finish in the top half instead of the Falcons.

rank	lw	Sun Belt	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arkansas State	7.3	0.7	5	0
2	2	Louisiana Lafayette	6.2	1.8	6	1
3	3	Western Kentucky	5.9	2.1	5	1
4	4	Florida International	4.4	3.6	2	3
5	5	North Texas	3.5	4.5	2	3
6	6	Troy	3.5	4.5	1	3
7	7	Louisiana Monroe	2.8	5.2	1	4
8	8	Middle Tennessee St	2.0	6.0	1	3
9	9	Florida Atlantic	0.5	7.5	0	5

Here comes yet another November 12 battle between #1 and #2. Arkansas State has been our #1 all season long and they'll be put to the test against upstart Louisiana-Lafayette. The Red Wolves already beat the other surging Sun Belt team, Western Kentucky, earlier this year. But a ULL victory would throw the teams into a 3-way tie, and if they all end with one loss then the tie-breaker rules are invoked. Since every team plays every team in the Sun Belt, it appears that it would come down to a coin toss to determine the conference winner.

rank	lw	WAC	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Nevada	6.3	0.7	3	0
2	3	Louisiana Tech	5.1	1.9	4	1
3	2	Hawaii	3.8	3.2	3	2
4	4	Fresno State	3.8	3.2	2	2
5	5	San Jose State	3.0	4.0	2	3
6	6	Utah State	2.8	4.2	1	2
7	8	Idaho	1.7	5.3	1	4
8	7	New Mexico State	1.5	5.5	1	3

Louisiana Tech topped Fresno State and Hawaii lost to Utah State, making the Bulldogs a solid #2 behind Nevada in our projection. The top two play two weeks from now, and the same week Fresno travels to Hawaii in what might decide the #3 finisher. Meanwhile, Idaho upset San Jose State and therefore might avoid the cellar.

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, November 6, 2011: Oklahoma State #2, Tide likely fall to #4

Obviously LSU will remain #1 in the BCS standings tonight, but Oklahoma State might be closer than people would expect. LSU beat Alabama, which will help them gain on the Cowboys—or even pass them—in the computer composite, but Oklahoma State will gain a lot in the polls. LSU is at #1 in the polls and will add points but their upside is limited.

Stanford should win a tight race for #3. Alabama's computer ranking might remain above the Cardinal, who only beat 2-7 Oregon State this weekend. The Cardinal will be ahead in the polls but not by that much. Alabama will likely remain ahead of Boise State, though that will be close, too. Positions #3 to #5 are up for grabs essentially.

Oklahoma should remain at #6, and we have Oregon narrowly passing Arkansas. It will be close; neither will gain much in the polls despite decent wins this weekend, and the Ducks have more upside with the computers. Again, it will be tight and Arkansas could very well hold at #7.

Clemson and Virginia Tech should round out the top 10. Once again this week, the Hokies are ahead of the team that beat them in the coaches' poll. But the Harris and computers will keep the Tigers a spot ahead. Neither team played on Saturday.

This Sunday's projected BCS Standings (USA ranking actual; computer composite and Harris projected). Variance is more likely within groupings, which demarcate teams expected to be close in rating.

lw  proj  Team           W   L   Comp   USA  Harris
1     1   LSU            9   0     2     1     1
3     2   Oklahoma St    9   0     1     3     2
4     3   Stanford       9   0     7     2     3
2     4   Alabama        8   1     4     4     4
5     5   Boise St       8   0     3     5     5
6     6   Oklahoma       8   1     5     7     7
8     7   Oregon         8   1     9     6     6
7     8   Arkansas       8   1     6     8     8
11    9   Clemson        8   1     8    10     9
12   10   Virginia Tech  8   1    10     9    10
16   11   Penn State     8   1    12    12    12
13   12   Houston        9   0    15    11    11
9    13   S. Carolina    7   2    13    15    15
18   14   Georgia        7   2    16    16    14
17   15   Michigan St    7   2    22    13    13

Penn State jumps to #11 in our projection, which might be a notch too high. Alabama's loss hurts them a little bit, but Iowa's upset of Michigan and Northwestern's upset of Nebraska should overcome that and help them in the computer rankings. Houston may be #11 if they are far enough ahead in the human polls.

South Carolina shouldn't fall too far, maybe to #13, for losing to Arkansas. Ideally they'd remain ahead of Georgia, whom they beat, and that seems to be the case. They fell behind the Bulldogs in the AP poll, so who knows what the Harris voters will do. The coaches have the Gamecocks ahead and it appears the computers will, too. Michigan State should complete the top 15; their computer ranking probably takes a hit with Nebraska and Michigan's losses, just as Penn State benefits. So Texas could slip into the #15 spot instead.

2011 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 10: Does Alabama deserve a rematch?

The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

Louisiana State finally reaches our top spot after beating former #1 Alabama 9-6 in overtime in Tuscaloosa. Not a particularly convincing win, but the Tigers have the nation's best résumé and if they win out they're a shoo-in for the BCS championship game, as they should be. The question is, where should the Tide rank? And what are the prospects for a rematch of last night's game, next time for the national title?

Well, if you believe that "every game counts" and that the regular season "is" the playoff, then Alabama should not get another chance if there is a viable alternative. The Tide lost at home, and no matter how close it was, if you lose at home you can't make excuses. If they'd lost in overtime at LSU, then they'd have a great argument that—if Stanford and Oklahoma State lose—there should be a rematch. As it stands, I'd rather have Boise State get their shot. We keep the Cardinal at #2, move the Cowboys (who beat Kansas State 52-45) to #3, and hold Boise at #4.

There's  no question, however, that Alabama should be the top 1-loss team. They're the only team to beat Penn State and Arkansas, and lost to the #1 team in overtime. #6 Oregon also lost to LSU—in what was essentially a road game—but it wasn't nearly as close. And their victims include just two borderline top 25 teams that fall out this week. As mentioned the Tide beat #7 Arkansas convincingly, and we move the Razorbacks up to #7, jumping Oklahoma, after their win over South Carolina. The Sooners have two murderous top 25 wins but a bad loss to Texas Tech. Idle Clemson has a résumé similar to Arkansas', but their loss is worse and Auburn gave them more trouble.

Houston breaks into our top 10. The Cougars weren't playing great football earlier in the season but have come on stronger lately, and there's no need for Penn State and Virginia Tech—neither of whom have top 25 wins—to be ahead of them just for losing to good teams. The latter two were idle this week and hold at #11 and #12.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 10 (thru 11/05/2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
3	1	Louisiana State	9-0	[email protected] 9-6ot, Oregon 40-27, Auburn 45-10
2	2	Stanford	9-0	[email protected] 54-46ot, Wash 65-21
5	3	Oklahoma State	9-0	[email protected] 38-26, KState 52-45
4	4	Boise State	8-0	[email protected] 35-21
1	5	Alabama	8-1	L LSU 9-6ot; wArk 38-14, @PennSt 27-11
6	6	Oregon	8-1	[email protected] 40-27; wASU 41-27, @Wash 34-17
9	7	Arkansas	8-1	[email protected] 38-14; wSCar 44-28, Aub 38-14
8	8	Oklahoma	8-1	L TxTech 41-38; [email protected] 58-17, =Texas 55-17
10	9	Clemson	8-1	[email protected] 31-17; [email protected] 23-3, Aub 38-24
14	10	Houston	9-0
11	11	Penn State	8-1	L Alabama 27-11
12	12	Virginia Tech	8-1	L Clemson 23-3
16	13	Wisconsin	7-2	[email protected] 33-29, @MichSt 37-31; wNeb 48-17
7	14	Nebraska	7-2	L N'west 28-25, @Wisc 48-17; wMichSt 24-3,  Wash 51-38
15	15	Michigan St	7-2	[email protected] 31-13, @Neb 24-3; wWisc 37-31, Mich 28-14
13	16	South Carolina	7-2	L Auburn 16-13, @Ark 44-28; [email protected] 45-42
20	17	Georgia Tech	7-2	[email protected] 24-21, @Miami 24-7; wClem 31-17
21	18	Georgia	7-2	L SCar 45-42, BoiseSt 35-21
23	19	Cincinnati	7-1	[email protected] 45-23
24	20	Southern Miss	8-1	[email protected] 26-20
22	21	Southern Cal	7-2	[email protected] 43-22, Stan 54-46ot
18	22	Kansas State	7-2	L Oklahoma 58-17, @OKst 52-45
25t	23	Texas	6-2	L=Oklahoma 55-17, OKst 38-26
--	24	Auburn	6-3	[email protected] 38-24, @Ark 38-14, @LSU 45-10;  [email protected] 16-13
17	25	Michigan	7-2	[email protected] 24-16, @MichSt 28-14
		out:
19	--	Arizona State	6-3	[email protected] 29-28, @ILL 17-14, @Oregon 41-27;  wUSC 43-22
25t	--	Washington	6-3	[email protected] 51-38, @Stan 65-21, Oregon 34-17

With Nebraska's loss to Northwestern, the Cornhuskers fall into an A > B > C > A trap with Wisconsin and Michigan State. Since the Badgers destroyed Nebraska, and Nebraska beat Michigan State convincingly, we rank them in that order, disregarding MSU's last-second hail-mary win over Wisconsin. The Spartans also struggled against Minnesota this weekend and hold at #15.

South Carolina falls three spots to #16. They hold a win over #18 Georgia, and since their losses are both to ranked teams we keep them ahead of #17 Georgia Tech, also.

Southern Cal moves up to #21 but their résumé is dinged by Arizona State's loss to UCLA. Both 7-1 Cincinnati and 8-1 Southern Miss jump the Trojans, landing at #19 and #20. Kansas State falls from #18 to #22, essentially into a tie with Texas. Both teams lost to Oklahoma badly and fared a lot better against Oklahoma State, but neither has a marquee win.

Michigan is fortunate to stay in the top 25; only Arizona State's loss kept them in. They fell to Iowa in a close game on the road, but without any big wins their résumé is weaker than Auburn's. The Tigers re-enter at #24; they've lost to three top 10 teams and beat South Carolina.

As mentioned ASU lost to UCLA and falls out, along with Washington who lost their third game to a ranked team when they fell to Oregon. The Huskies can jump back into the rankings with a win over USC next weekend, and 7-2 TCU will try to upset Boise State for their own spot. The only other unranked 2-loss teams are Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette. They play next week and the winner will probably be ranked (here, if nowhere else). One of the Red Wolves' losses is to Virginia Tech, and the Ragin' Cajuns fell to Oklahoma State earlier in the year.

Alabama vs. LSU Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Who Wins the SEC, Maybe National Title?

Saturday, January 10: BCS Championship Game in Glendale, AZ at 8:30 pm eastern

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) vs. #3 LSU Tigers (8-0)

This winner of this game is almost certain to be the SEC West division champ, probably the overall SEC champion, and will very likely play for the national title.

Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 4 1/2 (over/under 41 1/2).

Although LSU is ranked #1 in the national polls, LSU is a decided underdog, mostly due to playing at Alabama. The game is expected to be low-scoring because these are two of the best, if not the two best, defenses in the country.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Alabama	61.7%	46.2%
LSU	38.3%	53.8%

This system takes each team's performances—on offense and defense—and re-combines them, making NxN hypothetical game performances, where N = the number of games the team has played. So there are 64 "games" for each team. It then compares one team's numbers against the other team's, resulting in 64^2 comparisons.

Alabama wins over 3/5 of these comparisons, again due mostly to the fact that they are playing at home. When the spread (which overwhelms the roughly 3-point home edge) is added in, LSU wins a small majority against it.

Strength Power Rating:      Alabama 28, LSU 24

Alabama ranks ahead of LSU in our All-Division Strength Power Rating, #2 to LSU's #3. Add in home field advantage and the Tide have about a four-point edge. That's very close to the Vegas line, but it projects more scoring than the oddsmakers do.

Both teams rank in the top ten on both scoring offense and scoring defense. They rate best in the nation on defense, with LSU #1 and Alabama #2. But the offenses aren't shabby either, with the Tide at #7 and the Tigers at #8. Some of that scoring, of course, is set up by tough D.

Yardage analysis:   Alabama 24, LSU 7     per attempt:   Alabama 30, LSU 21

The yardage analysis comes out weighted heavily toward Alabama. Unlike the Strength Power Rating, when only yardage gained and yielded is used, the teams are far apart. Alabama ranks #1 in total yardage differential and LSU is just #24. Both, obviously, are strong on defense (Alabama #2, LSU #6), but on offense there is a huge gap: The Tide rank #15, and LSU just #77. That's where the Tigers' low score projection comes from, the inability to move the ball against the Tide.

LSU's offense ranks well in scoring but poorly in yardage, and there could be a number of reasons for this. The most obvious is that they often don't have to move the ball very far to score because of their potent defense, which forces a lot of turnovers and gives them great field position. They also rank #2—behind Stanford—in red zone offense, scoring on 38 of 39 attempts; this means they don't "waste" yards gained. Our method, which converts yardage to score on a equal basis per team, undoubtedly underestimate's LSU's ability to turn yards into points for the reasons mentioned.

The per-attempt numbers still go for Alabama but in a closer, higher-scoring game; as many points projected as the Power Rating, but with a 9-point advantage for the Tide. Again, the main edge goes to Alabama's offense, as the defenses both rank near the top.

Tufte Method projection:   Alabama 24, LSU 10

This method was used in a paper by David Tufte to estimate a team's score in a game already played, using the component statistics (yardage, opponent's score, first downs) of that game. Here, we use our projected statistics with his formula to predict a score for a game not yet played.

From our yardage projection, Alabama gains 370 yards from scrimmage to LSU's 204. We plug in 28 points for Alabama when projecting LSU's score, and 24 points for LSU when projecting Alabama's. And using first down statistics for the year and correcting for opposition, Alabama is projected to have 19 first downs and LSU just 11. Plugging those numbers into the formula yields a score of Alabama 26.4, LSU 10.3, or about 26 to 10.

Interestingly, since the formula uses the other team's points to find a team's own score, we can feed these projected scores back into the formula; doing so ultimately reduces the score to Alabama 24, LSU 10.

When Alabama has the ball

Alabama rushing offense: #8

LSU rushing defense: #1

Alabama has Trent Richardson, who is among the nation's leading rushers and top Heisman candidates. He's rushed for an amazing 17 touchdowns in the Tide's first 8 games. He averages 124 yards per game, but he'll be going up against the #1 rushing defense in the country. LSU held Oregon's LaMichael James—who averaged 150 yards per game—to just 54 yards on 18 carries. Will Richardson fare better, given that Alabama's offensive line is probably more suited to matching up with LSU's front four?

The per-carry numbers might even the situation out a bit. Alabama is #2 in yards per carry when adjusted for opposition, while LSU is #3 in yards yielded. Between Richardson and Eddie Lacy (who averages 8 yards per carry), the Tide should have around 150 rushing yards. But if the Tigers can manage to put a lid on Alabama's running game, that will be a huge key to victory.

Alabama passing offense: #58	LSU passing defense: #29   per att: #6
Alabama quarterback protection rank: #61	LSU pass rush rank: #29

Sophomore A.J. McCarron doesn't get a lot of hype, nor a lot of credit for Alabama's success; that goes to either Richardson or the defense. But he's done a good job guiding the team, completing 67% of his passing attempts and throwing just 3 interceptions. He has only 10 touchdown passes, but Richardson makes up for that.

The 'Bama passing attack has no superstars, though Marquis Maze is by far the leader with 482 receiving yards. The ball is usually spread out among several receivers, including Richardson; eight players have caught a touchdown pass, and no one has more than 2 TD receptions. The passing game isn't the thrust of the Alabama offense, and ranks only average for the FBS.

LSU's pass defense is good, much better than the 29th they rank in adjusted yardage yielded per-game. Those numbers are inflated by the fact that teams can't run on the Tigers so they go to the air to try their luck. On a per-attempt basis, LSU ranks #6 in shutting down teams' passing attack. LSU has three players, including much-hyped Tyrann Mathieu, with 2 or more interceptions.

Though not used as much as many teams do, Alabama's passing game is careful and efficient; they should have around 220 yards through the air, perhaps more if they find they have difficulty running the ball against LSU.

When LSU has the ball

LSU rushing offense: #36

Alabama rushing defense: #2

LSU's rushing game is not all that powerful. Spencer Ware has gone over 100 yards—barely—just a couple of times, and teammate Michael Ford has come close a few times himself. Together they've combined for nearly 1,000 yards so far, approximately equal to Trent Richardson's total. Overall their ground gains put them outside the top 25 in rushing on a per-game basis and even lower—#52—on a per-carry basis.

Alabama's defense, meanwhile, is nearly as good as LSU's against the run. They rank #2 both per-game and per-carry, so they're arguably even better. LSU will be fortunate to get much of a running game going against the Tide, and I expect Alabama to hold them below 100 yards unless Jordan Jefferson, who can be a running threat, plays the majority of the game for the Tigers.

LSU passing offense: #94	Alabama passing defense: #11   per att: #8
LSU quarterback protection rank: #29	Alabama pass rush rank: #64

It's hard to diagnose LSU's quarterback play; Jarrett Lee played all of the first four games before Jordan Jefferson's return, and since then Jefferson has seen time while Lee has remained the starter. Almost all of the Tigers' passing attempts have come from Lee; Jefferson has thrown just 10 passes for 6 completions, but two of those were touchdowns. Lee is completing 63% for 1,250 yards and 13 TDs, and has been intercepted only once. That's a far cry from the 14 picks he suffered in 2008.

In short, LSU has much of the same careful passing game that Alabama has when Lee is in, while Jefferson has been used in certain sitations and adds a running threat. Rueben Randle is probably on his way to a 1,000 yard season and has 7 touchdown catches. But the bottom line is still that there isn't much production from the passing game, as LSU ranks 94th in the nation in passing yards per game when corrected for opposition.

Meanwhile Alabama has a strong pass defense, ranking 11th per-game and #8 per-play. This suggests a low total for LSU, probably around 120 yards through the air.

However, given that LSU is likely to have trouble running the ball, they may be forced to throw a lot more. And if they do, they could be more productive than our estimate says. LSU ranks #10 in passing yards per attempt, suggesting if they threw the ball more often good things might happen. That's questionable against Alabama's defense, but the Tigers might not have any choice; I suspect we'll get a good grasp of how much Lee has actually improved since his disastrous 2008 season.

 

Alabama's season

Wins vs. winning teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (0) 

1. Kent State 48-7
2. @ #11 Penn State 27-11
3. North Texas 41-0 
4. #9 Arkansas 38-14
5. @ Florida 38-10
6. Vanderbilt 34-0 
7. @ Mississippi 52-7 
8. Tennessee 37-6

Alabama has been remarkably consistent this year, playing at an exceptional level in every game. The offense has done everything it needed to do and the defense has held 6 of 8 opponents to single digits. Alabama's lowest victory margin has been 16 points.

Just four of the Tide's opponents have a winning or even record, but two of those have only 1 loss. Alabama is the only team to beat Penn State or Arkansas this year, the main reason they rank #1 in the SportsRatings Success ratings while trailing Oklahoma State in most of the BCS computer rankings.

It's scary, but if anything the Tide defense is getting better every week, from the opening win over Kent State to the shutout of Vanderbilt, every performance ranked stronger than the last. It's hard to differentiate between a touchdown here and there, though; the opponents' totals are so low it makes these comparisons almost meaningless.

LSU's season

Wins vs. winning teams (5) 
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (0) 

1. = #6 Oregon 40-27
2. N'western State 49-3
3. @ Miss. State 19-6
4. @ West Virginia 47-21
5. Kentucky 35-7
6. Florida 41-11
7. @ Tennessee 38-7
8. Auburn 45-10

Five of the teams LSU has defeated are winning (or even) FBS teams. Only Oregon (#6 in our Top 25 at 7-1) is ranked, but West Virginia is close at 6-2 and Auburn is probably the best 5-3 team in the country.

Alabama and LSU have two common opponents: Florida and Tennessee. LSU beat Florida at home by 30, while Alabama beat the Gators by 28 on the road; that's a wash. LSU topped Tennessee by 31 on the road while Alabama won by 31 at home. Tiny advantage to LSU, but really those games only underscore how good both of these teams are.

Defense is where both teams shine, and LSU has been dominant this season. Starting with their win over high-powered Oregon, and holding West Virginia to 21 at home, LSU has been either good or great on D. On offense, however, there were a few dud performances. They only scored 19 against Mississippi State; it was a road game, and the Bulldogs aren't a bad team, but they were up just 9-6 going into the fourth quarter. And while 35 against Kentucky isn't bad, other teams have hit the Wildcats worse, and one of the Tigers' touchdowns was on defense. These were the only "average" performances by the Tigers. Though not known for having a great offense, their other six games were very good. They've scored four touchdowns by defense or special teams.

Key Injuries

Neither team has any new major injuries. Alabama's Eddie Lacy, their #2 running threat, has a slight injury but is expected to play Saturday. LSU had some key players suspended two weeks ago against Auburn—among them top running back Spencer Ware and defensive back Tyrann Mathieu—but they're in good graces for the big game coming up.

Psychology

I don't think there's a reason to give either team an edge here. Both teams have ample motivation, as both are building back toward the heights of their last national championship teams (Alabama in 2009, LSU in 2007). Last year was a downer of sorts for the Tide as they lost three games, but that seems to have given them some fire. LSU lost 5 games in 2008 and 4 more in 2007, but last year rebounded to go 11-2, and they want to reach the top again this season.

Final analysis

Though LSU has gotten most of the press and is #1 in the polls, I've felt all season that Alabama is the better team. It's hard to draw a big distinction between the teams—they both play great defense, and have been more than capable on offense—but if you call them even, that still gives the advantage to the Tide due to home field.

Beyond that, I think Alabama will shut down LSU's offense, which has been good but hasn't faced a team like Alabama yet. Alabama, on the other hand, had to deal with Penn State's defense in State College, probably the closest approximation to LSU's defense they can find (other than perhaps their own D). The Tide scored 27 points, more than any other team has scored against the Nittany Lions. That number also matches up with the average of our four estimates for the Tide.

LSU has a great red zone offensive success, but Alabama's opponents have only been there 9 times all year. I assume that great defensive play will help get them there more than a few times, but unless Les Miles' trickeration can get them touchdowns rather than field goals it won't be enough. Alabama should win the game handily and take the next step toward the SEC championship and BCS championship berth.

Prediction:  Alabama 27,  LSU 16

2011 Heisman Race, week 9: Luck lucks out, stays in at #1

Sometimes you have to dig a hole to show how well you can get out of it. Andrew Luck, our front-runner almost every week of the season, did just that against USC when he threw a late pick-6 with the game tied. But he went right back an engineered a touchdown drive to tie the game and three more to win it in triple overtime. In Heisman politics, that means he's a stronger #1 than ever, even though at the end a USC fumble sealed the win for the Cardinal. If USC had managed to win, Luck's candidacy would have taken a hit.

Kellen Moore was idle last week and remains #2. His stats are similar to Luck's but the competition is starting to get weak just as Luck's opponents are getting tougher, and that will be the difference if they continue on their current trajectory. Moore has a good shot at finishing in the top three because many other top candidates, such as Wisconsin's Russell Wilson, are hitting turbulence. Wilson played well against Ohio State but the Badgers lost; again, not his fault that a last-minute pass play won the game for the Buckeyes, but it still harms his standing. We didn't drop him yet but the chasm between #2 and #3 is wide. Denard Robinson holds on at #4 as Michigan is now 7-1. If they win out he could not only be in New York but has an outside chance to win. His stats, which include an equal number of TD passes and interceptions, are a problem, especially since he's not putting up huge rushing numbers lately.

Case Keenum cracks the top five with a monster, 9-touchdown performance before last weekend. It will be discounted because the opponent was Rice, but that's still a huge amount of touchdowns for any single game. He's sure to break all the all-time records that are within his reach, and that should be good for at least a trip to New York. Winning, however, would require a lot of teams to lose and other candidates to falter. If the award is going to a non-AQ player then Moore is in line ahead of Keenum, who has been tagged with the dreaded "system quarterback" label that has been applied ever since Andre Ware won in 1989—also playing for Houston.

2011 Heisman Race after week 9

1. Andrew Luck, QB-Stanford (8-0)
   174-242 72% 2218yd 23TD 4int; 25rsh 119yd 4.8av 2TD 0fmb; 1rec 13yds 0TD
   Luck threw a pick-six to put the USC game in jeopardy, but led his team back to victory.
   
2. Kellen Moore, QB-Boise State (7-0)
   174-228 76% 1998yd 24TD 5int; 8rsh -12yd -1.5av 0TD 0fmb
   Moore and Boise State were idle last week.
3. Russell Wilson, QB-Wisconsin (6-2)
   129-181 71% 2033yd 19TD 3int; 38rsh 200yd 5.3av 3TD 0fmb; 1rec 25yds 1TD
   Wilson still leads the nation in passing efficiency, but his Badgers have lost 2 in a row.
4. Denard Robinson, QB-Michigan (7-1)
   85-155 55% 1423yd 11TD 11int; 135rsh 838yd 6.2av 10TD 0fmb
   Robinson had a very understated game against Purdue but Michigan still won 36-14.
5. ^ Case Keenum, QB-Houston (8-0)
   218-303 72% 3219yd 32TD 3int; 30rsh 25yd 0.8av 0TD 2fmb
   Nine touchdown passes. Nine. Against Rice, yes, but NINE TOUCHDOWN PASSES.
6. v LaMichael James, RB-Oregon (7-1)
   108rsh 905yd 8.4ave 8TD 0fmb; 11rec 159yd 1TD; 137ret yds 1TD
   James returned from injury and had just 53 yards in limited action.
7. ^ Trent Richardson, RB-Alabama (8-0)
   149rsh 989yd 6.6av 17TD 0fmb; 18rec 212yd 1TD; 43ret yds 0TD
   Richardson was idle but can make or break his case against LSU this weekend.
8. v Robert Griffin III, QB-Baylor (4-3)
   175-232 75% 2375yd 23TD 4int; 88rsh 322yd 3.7av 3TD 2fmb; 15 rec yds
   Griffin had an okay game, but the Bears are 4-3 after losing to Oklahoma State.
   
9. Justin Blackmon, WR-Oklahoma State (8-0)
   74rec 834yd 10TD 1fmb; 2rsh 6yds 3.0 ave 0TD
   Blackmon rebounded with 172 yards against Baylor, his best total of the year.
   
10. Landry Jones, QB-Oklahoma (7-1)
    236-355 66% 3094yd 26TD 9int; 14rsh 22yd 1.6ave 2TD 0fmb
    Jones added another 5 TDs and 505 passing yards against K-State.
11. Ryan Broyles, WR-Oklahoma (7-1)
    81rec 1070yd 10TD 1fmb; 187ret yds 0TDs 1fmb
    Broyles almost exactly matched Blackmon with 14 catches and 171 yards.
12. Marcus Lattimore, RB-South Carolina (7-1)
    163rsh 818yd 5.0av 10TD 2fmb; 19rec 182yd 1TD
    Lattimore is out for the season with injury.
13. Brandon Weeden, QB-Oklahoma State (8-0)
    246-345 71% 2710yd 22TD 7int; 14rsh -85yd -6.0av 0TD 0fmb
    It's time to give Weeden some recognition as the key to the Cowboys' success
14. v Tajh Boyd, QB-Clemson (8-1)
    195-318 61% 2674yd 25TD 5int; 89rsh 164yd 1.8av 4TD 0fmb
    Clemson suffered their first loss with Boyd throwing 2 picks.

Running backs are in short supply at the top of our list. LaMichael James is the only viable candidate averaging over 150 yards per game, and he's missed two games and had just 53 last weekend. Clearly Trent Richardson is poised to surpass him, and on most lists he's near the very top. We're hesitant to call Richardson the reason for Alabama's success (which is, defense), and that puts him in the "best player on the best team" category. Which is fine as long as Alabama beats LSU this weekend; otherwise his shot at winning decreases. For next week's purposes, he just has to do better than James did against LSU (54 yards back in September) to move up. The only other true running back on the list (though Denard Robinson sort of functions as one) is Marcus Lattimore, out for the season, still listed at #12 but obviously a top candidate to be cut in a couple of weeks.

Baylor's Robert Griffin III has fallen for the same reason Robinson fell last season—losses. The Bears are 4-3 now, and while Griffin is still playing well, he's nowhere near his early season "more TDs than incompletions" form, which was obviously unsustainable. He threw 1 touchdown pass against Oklahoma State and two interceptions. In that game, #9 Justin Blackmon finally had a signature great game, catching 13 passes for 172 yards. Meanwhile counterpart Ryan Broyles had 14 catches for 171 yards in Oklahoma's win over Kansas State. He remains at #11, but may ultimately be the better candidate than Blackmon or his own teammate Landry Jones. Jones stays ahead of Broyles this week as he had a 500+ yard, 5 TD performance himself.

Blackmon's quarterback finally gets on our board, too. Last year Brandon Weeden looked like a system quarterback if there ever was one, and with Blackmon as a target, who wouldn't look good? But Weeden has spread the wealth this year and proved he's not completely reliant on Blackmon. The team is also undefeated and the reason for that is the Cowboy offense, specifically the passing game. Weeden deserves credit for that. He jumps in ahead of Clemson's Tajh Boyd, another quarterback who had his team undefeated—until last week when the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech.

Next week we'll add our final candidate, and the week after that the cuts begin. If LSU beats Alabama they'll be undefeated and really deserve to have their own candidate. Most people are touting Tyrann Matthieu for his forced fumbles and interceptions. But if I'm going to pick a defensive player, right now I'd go for Luke Kuechly of Boston College, who is on track to beat the all-time record for most tackles in a single season. BC is only 2-6, but let's face it, defensive players are mostly a token selection on Heisman lists. If LSU beat the Tide, Matthieu will probably join and could stick around a while; otherwise, Kuechly might get the #15 slot just for the recognition.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - week 9: Badgers Still Alive for At-large

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 9 (10/29/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	BCS rank
1	1	Alabama	12.0	1.0	BCS Title	8	0	2
2	2	Oklahoma St	11.1	0.9	BCS Title	8	0	3
3	3	LSU	10.7	1.3	Sugar	8	0	1
5	4	Oklahoma	10.1	1.9	Fiesta	7	1	6
4	5	Boise St	11.4	0.6	Fiesta	7	0	5
10	6	Stanford	11.8	1.2	Rose	8	0	4
7	7	South Carolina	10.3	2.7		7	1	9
9	8	Arkansas	9.3	2.7		7	1	7
8	9	Oregon	10.3	1.7		7	1	8
13	10	Virginia Tech	11.0	2.0	Orange	8	1	12
6	11	Clemson	9.9	3.1		8	1	11
15	12	Nebraska	10.5	2.6	Rose	7	1	10
12	13	Wisconsin	9.4	2.6	Sugar	6	2	20
11	14	Kansas St	8.3	3.8		7	1	14
17	15	Auburn	7.7	4.3		6	3	22
19	16	Georgia	9.0	3.0		6	2	18
14	17	Texas A&M	8.0	4.1		5	3	--
20	18	Penn State	9.1	3.9		8	1	16
16	19	Michigan St	8.8	3.2		6	2	17
22	20	Michigan	8.4	3.7		7	1	15
23	21	Ohio State	8.4	3.6		5	3	--
21	22	Texas	7.6	4.5		5	2	21
24	23	Houston	10.4	1.6		8	0	13
--	24	Georgia Tech	7.9	4.1		7	2	23
25	25	Arizona St	8.3	4.7		6	2	19

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl:	Nebraska vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Wisconsin
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

Wisconsin's 2nd straight loss drops them out of the lead in the Leaders division, meaning they're not expected to go to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the season started. It also impacted their chance to go to a BCS bowl, period. But it didn't kill their chances; there are a number of scenarios by which they can get back in the mix. All of these include winning out, which would give them a victory over Penn State; then, whether the Nittany Lions or Nebraska wins the Big Ten title game, Wisconsin could finish in the top 14, ahead of the loser of that game. The 2nd place Big Ten team is always a good bet for a BCS bowl.

Though the Badgers are on the edge as far as finishing #13 in our projection, if they make the top 14 they stand a good chance of being picked. The team travels well, for one thing, and as we've mentioned before there aren't a lot of options for the bowls this year as SEC and Big Twelve teams are going to crowd the top 14, leaving several out of luck due to the 2-team-per-conference limit.

The scenario for the Badgers is: the Fiesta Bowl, having Oklahoma and not being able to pick South Carolina, Arkansas, or Kansas State. Their choices will be Boise State, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, or Cincinnati. Clemson and Cincy are unlikely; Wisconsin could be picked here, but it would be hard to justify since they'll probably be outside the top ten. Coming down to Oregon or Boise State, it could be either team but if Boise is undefeated (as expected) and Oregon has 2 losses (which they will if Stanford is in the Rose Bowl), a rematch of the 2006 game isn't a bad pick.

That would leave the Sugar Bowl—armed with LSU—to choose between the remaining four teams. Oregon would be the strongest pick but the Tigers already beat the Ducks, which makes the Wisconsin pick justifiable. The SEC and Big Ten have a lot of tie-ins making this one a natural. Cincinnati would be left for the Orange.

If the Fiesta Bowl picked Oregon instead of Boise, then Wisconsin would be left out since Boise State and Cincinnati both are required picks; the Sugar would take the Broncos in that case. And naturally the Badgers have to work their way back into the top 14, not an easy task even if they win out.

The other changes in the projected pairings came from Stanford again flipping with Oregon in terms of the Pac-12 projected winner; this won't be settled until the two teams play. Also, Clemson's loss dropped them ever-so-slightly below Virginia Tech; the two are also on a collision course for the ACC title. Nebraska's win over Michigan State put them on top in the Legends division, and they come out slightly ahead of Penn State for the Big Ten title and thus the Rose Bowl.

Note also that Oklahoma, who only fell to 5th last week despite a surprise loss, moves ahead of Boise State. This means that once again, it appears that the national championship will be between the winners of LSU-Alabama and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. Stanford also gains on the Broncos, and in fact passed them in the current BCS standings; they're lower here because of the big hurdle (Oregon) they face. Boise has been helped by Georgia's continued win streak. The Bulldogs are knocking on the door of BCS bowl eligibility themselves, but as the 5th-ranked SEC team they'd need an upset win in the SEC title game to get there.

2011 Conference Final Standings Projection - week 9: Head-to-head results gain significance

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season

Updated for games through October 29, 2011 (week 9)

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Clemson	6.3	1.7	5	1
2	2	Florida State	5.7	2.3	3	2
3	3	Wake Forest	4.5	3.5	4	2
4	4	North Carolina State	3.4	4.6	1	3
5	5	Maryland	2.7	5.3	1	4
6	6	Boston College	2.0	6.0	1	4
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	6.4	1.6	4	1
2	3	Georgia Tech	4.7	3.3	4	2
3	2	Miami FL	3.6	4.4	2	3
4	4	North Carolina	3.3	4.7	2	3
5	6	Virginia	3.0	5.0	2	2
6	5	Duke	2.3	5.7	1	3

Clemson's loss to Georgia Tech shook up the BCS but not the ACC Atlantic, where the Tigers are still a solid #1, holding a head-to-head win over the projected #2, Florida State.

The Yellow Jackets re-stake their claim to the #2 spot in the Coastal with an eye toward their showdown with Virginia Tech. Virginia now has wins over Georgia Tech and Miami and should avoid the Coastal cellar at the very least.

rank	lw	Big East	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Cincinnati	4.9	2.1	2	0
2	2	Pittsburgh	4.4	2.6	2	1
3	3	West Virginia	4.3	2.7	2	1
4	5	Louisville	3.5	3.5	2	1
5	4	Connecticut	3.2	3.8	1	2
6	6	Rutgers	2.8	4.2	2	2
7	8	South Florida	2.4	4.6	0	3
8	7	Syracuse	2.3	4.7	1	2

No upsets in the Big East this week; every team still has a shot at finishing first or last. The currently projected top four all play each other this weekend, as Cincy travels to Pitt and West Virginia hosts Louisville.

Big Ten
rank	lw	Leaders division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Penn State	5.7	2.3	5	0
2	3	Ohio State	5.4	2.6	2	2
3	1	Wisconsin	5.4	2.6	2	2
4	4	Illinois	3.7	4.3	2	3
5	5	Purdue	3.2	4.8	2	2
6	6	Indiana	0.5	7.5	0	5
rank	lw	Legends division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Nebraska	5.8	2.2	3	1
2	1	Michigan State	5.8	2.2	3	1
3	4	Michigan	4.4	3.6	3	1
4	3	Iowa	4.0	4.0	2	2
5	5	Northwestern	2.1	5.9	1	4
6	6	Minnesota	2.0	6.0	1	3

Wisconsin's 2nd straight loss by desparation touchdown pass knocks them into a tie for 2nd in the Leaders with Ohio State, who beat them on Saturday and thus has the head-to-head edge. At #1 is Penn State, at 5-0 the only team with more than 2 wins in the Leaders. The road gets even tougher for the Lions as they face Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin after a bye week.

In the Legends, Nebraska's 24-3 win over Michigan State puts them into a projected tie with the Spartans, and of course they'd have the tiebreaker. Michigan State has an easier path than the Cornhuskers so the division is still in question. Iowa may have played themselves out of contention by losing to Minnesota, but they still control their own destiny as they face all three of the teams ahead of them; more likely, the Hawks will play spoiler.

rank	lw	Big Twelve	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oklahoma State	8.1	0.9	5	0
2	2	Oklahoma	7.1	1.9	4	1
3	3	Texas A&M	6.0	3.0	3	2
4	5	Missouri	5.3	3.7	2	3
5	4	Kansas State	5.2	3.8	4	1
6	6	Texas	4.6	4.4	2	2
7	7	Texas Tech	3.0	6.0	2	3
8	8	Baylor	2.9	6.1	1	3
9	9	Iowa State	2.3	6.7	1	4
10	10	Kansas	0.6	8.4	0	5

Missouri finally got a big win, beating luckless Texas A&M in overtime. Along with Kansas State's loss to Oklahoma, the Tigers move up to 4th and the Wildcats fall to fifth in our projection. Other than that, the Big Twelve was pretty orderly last weekend. Even Iowa State's upset of Texas Tech didn't rock the boat, other than probably ruling out a run at the upper half by the Red Raiders.

This weekend it's the Aggies' turn at Oklahoma, to see if they can finally get a big win. And Oklahoma State are next in Kansas State's brutal late-season test.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oregon	8.3	0.7	5	0
2	2	Stanford	8.1	0.9	6	0
3	3	Washington	5.4	3.6	4	1
4	5	Oregon State	3.3	5.7	2	3
5	4	California	3.2	5.8	1	4
6	6	Washington State	2.2	6.8	1	4
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arizona State	6.3	2.7	4	1
2	2	USC	5.3	3.7	3	2
3	3	UCLA	5.0	4.0	3	2
4	5	Utah	3.3	5.7	1	4
5	4	Arizona	2.7	6.3	1	5
6	6	Colorado	0.9	8.1	0	5

Stanford held on against USC and preserved the big North division matchup with Oregon. California is looking like the same up-and-down team they were last year, following up a blowout win with a blowout loss.

This weekend Oregon has a test at Washington, and ASU can pretty much seal the deal in the South with a win at UCLA. Utah plays at Arizona essentially for 5th place.

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Georgia	6.3	1.7	5	1
2	1	South Carolina	6.2	1.8	5	1
3	3	Florida	3.2	4.8	2	4
4	4	Kentucky	2.1	5.9	0	4
5	5	Vanderbilt	1.8	6.2	1	4
6	6	Tennessee	1.4	6.6	0	5
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	7.3	0.7	5	0
2	2	LSU	6.7	1.3	5	0
3	3	Arkansas	5.3	2.7	3	1
4	4	Auburn	4.7	3.3	4	2
5	5	Mississippi State	2.5	5.5	1	4
6	6	Mississippi	0.5	7.5	0	5

What does it mean that Georgia is projected to win 1/10th of a game more than South Carolina? The Bulldogs pull slightly ahead by beating Florida; essentially this means that there is a small chance Georgia wins the East outright. For all intents and purposes, the teams are expected to tie for the top, and the Gamecocks win due to their head-to-head win in September. Even though a tie is expected, if one team finishes ahead, it's probably the Bulldogs. They play a non-conference breather against New Mexico State this coming weekend while South Carolina travels to Arkansas.

The West, of course, will be settled on Saturday when LSU takes on Alabama. Alabama's lead in the projection is largely based on our system favoring them to beat the Tigers. Whoever wins is expected to win the SEC title game and play for the national championship. There could be a major change in the SEC—and the BCS—after Saturday!

CUSA
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Southern Miss	5.9	2.1	3	1
2	2	Central Florida	4.6	3.4	2	2
3	3	East Carolina	4.5	3.5	3	1
4	4	Marshall	4.4	3.6	3	2
5	5	UAB	2.5	5.5	1	4
6	6	Memphis	1.3	6.7	1	4
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Tulsa	7.2	0.8	4	0
2	2	Houston	6.4	1.6	4	0
3	3	Southern Methodist	5.0	3.0	3	2
4	4	Rice	2.5	5.5	1	4
5	5	UTEP	2.0	6.0	1	3
6	6	Tulane	1.7	6.3	1	4

No upsets = no action in the projections for Conference USA. Not that there weren't any important games: Tulsa clobbered SMU 38-7 to give credence to our #1 projection in the West, while Southern Miss, Central Florida, and Houston all handily defeated bottom-half squads UTEP, Memphis, and Rice to keep things orderly.

Tulsa travels to Central Florida on Thursday, and whoever loses takes a big hit in their quest to win their own division. On Saturday Southern Miss faces projected #3 East Carolina who is currently tied for the East lead with the Golden Eagles at 3-1.

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Temple	5.0	3.0	3	2
2	2	Miami OH	4.3	3.7	2	2
3	3	Ohio	3.8	4.2	2	2
4	5	Kent State	3.5	4.5	1	3
5	4	Bowling Green	3.3	4.7	2	3
6	6	Buffalo	2.3	5.7	1	4
7	7	Akron	0.7	7.3	0	4
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Toledo	6.3	1.7	4	0
2	2	Northern Illinois	6.2	1.8	3	1
3	3	Western Michigan	5.0	3.0	3	2
4	4	Ball State	4.1	3.9	3	2
5	5	Eastern Michigan	3.9	4.1	3	1
6	6	Central Michigan	3.4	4.6	2	3

The only teams that switch projected positions are Kent State and Bowling Green, and that's cuz the Golden Flashes beat the Falcons 27-15 on Saturday. Other than that, no surprises from the MAC. There was a showdown of cellar dwellers, with the West division again showing its superiority as Central Michigan edged Akron 23-22.

And due to the West's dominance over the East, the real MAC title game could be tonight's (Tuesday) game between Toledo and Northern Illinois. The Rockets already beat East leader Temple in a rout.
 

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Boise State	6.4	0.6	2	0
2	2	TCU	6.3	0.7	3	0
3	3	San Diego State	3.9	3.1	1	2
4	4	Air Force	3.9	3.1	1	3
5	5	Wyoming	3.2	3.8	2	0
6	6	Colorado State	1.8	5.2	1	2
7	7	UNLV	1.6	5.4	1	1
8	8	New Mexico	0.9	6.1	0	3

Just when it looked like the pecking order was set, Wyoming had to shake things up by upsetting San Diego State 30-27. This dropped the Aztecs into a projected tie with Air Force for third, but since they hold a head-to-head win it didn't change things ultimately. It does suggest Wyoming—now 2-0—have a shot at beating the #4 Falcons and could finish in the upper half of the conference. They could prove a lot more this weekend by beating TCU...

rank	lw	Sun Belt	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arkansas State	7.2	0.8	4	0
2	2	Louisiana Lafayette	5.7	2.3	5	1
3	4	Western Kentucky	5.2	2.8	4	1
4	3	Florida International	5.0	3.0	2	2
5	7	North Texas	3.5	4.5	2	3
6	6	Troy	3.5	4.5	1	3
7	5	Louisiana Monroe	3.3	4.7	1	3
8	8	Middle Tennessee St	2.0	6.0	1	3
9	9	Florida Atlantic	0.6	7.4	0	4

Despite FIU's win over Troy, Western Kentucky pulled slightly ahead in the race for #3 in the Sun Belt, sending Louisiana-Monroe down to 7th place with a 31-28 overtime win. Strangely, North Texas jumped two spots after losing to Arkansas State; the loss was already mostly factored in, and Troy and the Warhawks both dropped after losses, leaving a tight race for 5th place. FIU can try to take back 3rd place by beating the Hilltoppers this weekend.

rank	lw	WAC	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Nevada	6.3	0.7	3	0
2	3	Hawaii	4.6	2.4	3	1
3	4	Louisiana Tech	4.5	2.5	3	1
4	2	Fresno State	4.4	2.6	2	1
5	5	San Jose State	3.6	3.4	2	2
6	6	Utah State	2.0	5.0	0	2
7	7	New Mexico State	1.5	5.5	1	3
8	8	Idaho	1.0	6.0	0	4

Nevada held off New Mexico State to remain a clear #1 in our projection and a slight leader in the current standings over Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, and Fresno State. The latter three are in a very tight battle for #2 in the projected standings; Hawaii's narrow win over Idaho was enough to hold off Louisiana Tech (who beat San Jose State), and both passed Fresno who was idle last weekend. The Bulldog teams face each other this weekend and the winner should be in good position for #2.