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The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.
We should have known it: in a weekend with very few (only 2) intra-top-25 games, there would be several major upsets in other games. Not only did #2 Oklahoma State kick off the weekend with an overtime loss on Friday, but #7 Clemson lost Saturday afternoon and #4 Oregon and #8 Oklahoma followed suit on Saturday night. This left a top three composed solely of SEC teams: #1 Louisiana State, who had no trouble at all with Mississippi (52-3); Alabama, who started slow against FCS power Georgia Southern but prevailed 45-21; and Arkansas, who dispatched Mississippi State 44-17.
No one really considers Arkansas the 3rd best team in the country, but who else deserves the spot? The Razorbacks have lost only to 1-loss Alabama and have a win over 2-loss South Carolina, which is a better résumé than the other candidates can claim. Next week they face LSU at home; with a win they cause a three-way tie at the top, so they'd either jump to #2 (if the victory is convincing) or simply solidify their #3 spot. At worst they fall to the top of the 2-loss list. In any case, the dominance at the very top by the SEC is getting ridiculous this year, and it looks like we're headed for an SEC vs. SEC rematch for the national championship.
We move Boise State up to #4, and the Broncos have to be kicking themselves over how everything they needed to have happen—except for beating TCU last week—is falling into place. Stanford moves up to #5, their loss to Oregon wider, and win over USC narrower, than Boise's comparable contests with TCU and Georgia. Before Saturday, Oklahoma State looked like they might fall out of the top ten but the carnage of the weekend saved them; they have two top 25 wins which gives them a slight edge over #7 Virginia Tech.
If Houston played anyone significant, at this time they could start thinking about the national championship game. But they don't. Their current win tally is 9 teams with losing records and 3 with winning records. They next face Tulsa who has lost only to Boise State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, so at least that will give a good comparison for how good the Cougars are. But that's not really the question; regardless of how good they are, they haven't defeated the kind of teams they must to prove they deserve consideration for the national title. A favorable "Tulsa comparison" with Boise (who beat the Golden Hurricane 41-21 at home) might go far to convince pollsters to put the Cougars ahead of the Broncos, which could put them 1st in line for the automatic non-AQ bid.
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SportsRatings Top 25 - week 12 (thru 11/19/2011)
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Losses/important wins
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| 1 | 1 | Louisiana State | 11-0 | w@Alabama 9-6ot, Oregon 40-27, @WVA 47-21 |
| 3 | 2 | Alabama | 10-1 | L LSU 9-6ot; wArk 38-14, @PennSt 27-11 |
| 5 | 3 | Arkansas | 10-1 | L@Alabama 38-14; wSCar 44-28 |
| 7 | 4 | Boise State | 9-1 | L TCU 36-35; w@Georgia 35-21 |
| 6 | 5 | Stanford | 10-1 | L Oregon 53-30; w@USC 54-46ot |
| 2 | 6 | Oklahoma State | 10-1 | L@IowaSt 37-31ot; wKState 52-45, Baylor 59-24 |
| 11 | 7 | Virginia Tech | 10-1 | L Clemson 23-3; wArkSt 26-7 |
| 10 | 8 | Houston | 11-0 | |
| 14 | 9 | Michigan St | 9-2 | L@NDame 31-13, @Neb 24-3; wWisc 37-31, Mich 28-14 |
| 12 | 10 | Wisconsin | 9-2 | L@OhioSt 33-29, @MichSt 37-31; wNeb 48-17 |
| 20 | 11 | Southern Cal | 9-2 | L@ASU 43-22, Stan 54-46ot; w@Oregon 38-35 |
| 4 | 12 | Oregon | 9-2 | L USC 38-35, @LSU 40-27; w@Stanford 53-30 |
| 15 | 13 | South Carolina | 9-2 | L Auburn 16-13, @Ark 44-28; w@Georgia 45-42 |
| 22 | 14 | Michigan | 9-2 | L@Iowa 24-16, @MichSt 28-14; wNebraska 45-17 |
| 16 | 15 | TCU | 9-2 | L SMU 40-33ot, @Baylor 50-48; w@Boise 36-35 |
| 8 | 16 | Oklahoma | 8-2 | L TxTech 41-38, @Baylor 45-38; w@KSt 58-17 |
| 17 | 17 | Georgia | 9-2 | L SCar 45-42, BoiseSt 35-21 |
| 18 | 18 | Penn State | 9-2 | L Nebraska 17-14, Alabama 27-11 |
| 9 | 19 | Clemson | 9-2 | L@NCst 37-13, @GTech 31-17; w@VTech 23-3 |
| 21 | 20 | Kansas State | 9-2 | L Oklahoma 58-17, @OKst 52-45; wBaylor 36-35 |
| -- | 21 | Baylor | 7-3 | L@TexAM 55-28, @Kst 36-35, @OKst 59-24; wOK 45-38, TCU 50-48 |
| 13 | 22 | Nebraska | 8-3 | L N'west 28-25, @Wisc 48-17, @Mich 45-17; wMichSt 24-3, @PennSt 17-14 |
| 23 | 23 | Arkansas State | 9-2 | L@Illinois 33-15, @VTech 26-7 |
| 24 | 24 | West Virginia | 7-3 | L@Syr 49-23, Lou 38-35, LSU 47-21; @Cincy 24-21 |
| 19 | 25 | Southern Miss | 9-2 | L@UAB 34-31, @Marshall 26-20 |
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| 25 | -- | Cincinnati | 7-3 | L@Tenn 45-23, @Rutgers 20-3, WVA 24-21 |
So who is tops among the 2-loss teams? Well Michigan State has the most big wins (2), and with Nebraska's loss they can move back in front of Wisconsin who follows at #10. The Badgers are two very close losses away from being undefeated. Oregon has the cleanest résumé but they should be just behind USC who beat them 38-35 in Autzen stadium. From #13 to #15, South Carolina, Michigan, and TCU have nearly identical strength in wins and losses, with the Wolverines' big win over Nebraska launching them up 8 spots.
Oklahoma falls from #8 to #16, not just for the Baylor loss but also because Texas Tech now has a losing record. Georgia and Penn State remain at #17 and #18 and neither has a bad loss or a braggable win, while Clemson tumbles from #9 to #19. The Tigers were blasted by North Carolina State, 37-13, their second convincing loss to an unranked team. Their prior win over Virginia Tech keeps them above 20 Kansas State, whose prior 1-point home win over Baylor is their best victory. The Bears enter at #21 after beating the Sooners 45-38 on Robert Griffin III's heroics; falling to #22 is Nebraska, who like Baylor has three losses, one to an unranked team, two to ranked teams, with a similar two wins over top 25 teams.
Arkansas State took care of Middle Tennessee State to remain at #23, and #24 West Virginia was idle. Southern Mississippi was the victim of the weekend's first—and probably biggest—upset as they lost to Alabama-Birmingham on Thursday. They remain in at #25 for a couple of reasons: one, they are 9-2, and two, they have a win over Virginia, who is one of the most deserving 3-loss teams. The Cavaliers beat FSU 14-13 and play Virginia Tech next weekend. Collaros-less Cincinnati fell to Rutgers, 20-3, and falls out.
Next weekend: Intra-top-25 contests between #1 LSU and #3 Arkansas, #10 Wisconsin vs. #18 Penn State, and #13 South Carolina vs. #19 Clemson. Also, a number of 3-loss teams try to prove they are worthy of entry: Tulsa hosts #8 Houston; Georgia Tech hosts #17 Georgia; Wyoming travels to #4 Boise State; Virginia hosts #7 Virginia Tech; and Notre Dame travels to #5 Stanford. If all those 8-3 teams win, I don't know what we'll do except maybe have a Top 30 next week.
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