2011 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 11: Who is left for LSU to beat?

The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

Louisiana State and Oklahoma State are the clear #1 and #2 teams in the country right now, both undefeated members of the two toughest conferences in 2011. But LSU has another distinction: they've defeated the #3 and #4 teams. This creates a problem if Oklahoma State loses a game, and #3 Alabama and #4 Oregon move into the top three.

Neither really deserves a rematch. Alabama lost at home, and that should settle the matter regardless of how close the game was. And Oregon lost 40-27, and the game wasn't even that close. Both teams could have prevailed; the Crimson Tide could have made any of the missed field goals, and Oregon just had to hold onto the ball on several punt returns and they would have been competitive. But they had their chance, and didn't win. Why should LSU have to "prove" it, like in a childhood game of HORSE?

With Oregon's win over Stanford, the Cardinal slide to #6 and lost their shot at a national title. They're behind the Ducks, who don't deserve a rematch, so Stanford is out, too. Boise State, always in the back of people's minds, also blew it on a missed field goal for the 2nd straight year. But both these teams have a better argument than Oklahoma, who lost to a Texas Tech team that has been blown out three straight weeks. Should the Sooners beat the Cowboys in a few weeks, it'll be a real mess. If that happens, we probably won't rank them above Alabama and Oregon on résumé, but they would be the logical opponent for LSU in a national championship game.

How about Clemson? How about no. Their biggest win is over Virginia Tech, but other than that they've looked pedestrian, including last week's last-second win over Wake Forest. Virginia Tech's biggest win is now Arkansas State (the Hokies beat former #17 Georgia Tech 37-26 last Thursday). Then there's Houston, undefeated and playing very well these days, but with an easier schedule than Boise State who at least beat a now-surging Georgia handily in week one.

Another interesting question is, what if Arkansas beats LSU? We have the Razorbacks #5, as they've only lost to Alabama. A win over the Tigers would lock the three teams together at 11-1. In every case the Tide should still rank above Arkansas, but does it go Alabama-Arkansas-LSU or LSU-Alabama-Arkansas? I'd go with the former if a blowout, the latter if a narrow Arkansas win. LSU, most likely, would get the nod for the SEC title game in that case since the BCS standings would be the ultimate tiebreaker—and even if Alabama was a few spots ahead, LSU's win over the Tide would give them the edge according to the SEC's rules.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 11 (thru 11/12/2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Louisiana State	10-0	w@Alabama 9-6ot, Oregon 40-27, @WVA 47-21, Auburn 45-10
3	2	Oklahoma State	10-0	wKState 52-45, @Texas 38-26
5	3	Alabama	9-1	L LSU 9-6ot; wArk 38-14, @PennSt 27-11
6	4	Oregon	9-1	L@LSU 40-27; w@Stanford 53-30
7	5	Arkansas	9-1	L@Alabama 38-14; wSCar 44-28, Aub 38-14
2	6	Stanford	9-1	L Oregon 53-30; w@USC 54-46ot
4	7	Boise State	8-1	L TCU 36-35; w@Georgia 35-21
8	8	Oklahoma	8-1	L TxTech 41-38; w@KSt 58-17, =Texas 55-17
9	9	Clemson	9-1	L@GTech 31-17; w@VTech 23-3, Aub 38-24
10	10	Houston	10-0
12	11	Virginia Tech	9-1	L Clemson 23-3; wArkSt 26-7, @GTech 37-26
13	12	Wisconsin	8-2	L@OhioSt 33-29, @MichSt 37-31; wNeb 48-17
14	13	Nebraska	8-2	L N'west 28-25, @Wisc 48-17; wMichSt 24-3, @PennSt 17-14
15	14	Michigan St	8-2	L@NDame 31-13, @Neb 24-3; wWisc 37-31, Mich 28-14
16	15	South Carolina	8-2	L Auburn 16-13, @Ark 44-28; w@Georgia 45-42
--	16	TCU	8-2	L@Baylor 50-48, SMU 40-33ot; w@Boise 36-35
18	17	Georgia	8-2	L SCar 45-42, BoiseSt 35-21; wAuburn 45-7
11	18	Penn State	8-2	L Nebraska 17-14, Alabama 27-11
20	19	Southern Miss	9-1	L@Marshall 26-20
21	20	Southern Cal	8-2	L@ASU 43-22, Stan 54-46ot
22	21	Kansas State	8-2	L Oklahoma 58-17, @OKst 52-45
25	22	Michigan	8-2	L@Iowa 24-16, @MichSt 28-14
--	23	Arkansas State	8-2	L@Illinois 33-15, @VTech 26-7
--	24	West Virginia	7-3	L@Syr 49-23, Lou 38-35, LSU 47-21; w@Cincy 24-21
19	25	Cincinnati	7-2	L@Tenn 45-23, WVA 24-21
		out:
17	--	Georgia Tech	7-3	L@Virg 24-21, @Miami 24-7, VTech 37-26; wClem 31-17
23	--	Texas	6-3	L@Mizzou 17-5, =Oklahoma 55-17, OKst 38-26
24	--	Auburn	6-4	L@Clem 38-24, @Ark 38-14, @LSU 45-10, @GA 45-7; w@SCar 16-13

 

 

The Big Ten's 8-2 teams are locked up in three-way tie from #12 to #14, and it's looking like there will be a Wisconsin-Michigan State rematch in the Big Ten title game. Nebraska beat Penn State who falls to #18, but the Cornhuskers have two conference losses to the Spartans' one. The Badgers still have to beat the Nittany Lions but I can't see Penn State playing with much heart on the road.

South Carolina and Georgia move up to #15 and #17. The Gamecocks beat the Bulldogs early in the year, but Georgia destroyed Auburn last weekend 45-7 and looks headed to the SEC title game, where they can cause a major shakeup by defeating LSU. TCU leaps back into the top 25 in a big way at #16. The Horned Frogs are 3 points away from being undefeated and upset Boise on the road, 36-35, which compares favorably with Georgia's 14-point home loss to the Broncose.

At #19 Southern Miss is the lowest-rated 1-loss team, with no big wins and a loss to 4-6 Marshall, but they're on a collision course with Houston in the C-USA. Southern Cal, Kansas State, and Michigan, all 8-2, move up to #20, #21, and #22, with résumés that include either losses to non-top 25 teams and/or blowout losses, coupled with a lack of top 25 wins. This group also includes 8-2 Arkansas State, who joins the top 25 at #23. The sad thing about the AP top 25? Arkansas State doesn't have a single top 25 vote, but I-AA Georgia Southern does.

West Virginia beat Cincinnati, so we moved them in at #24. They don't have the very best résumé among the 3-loss teams—that would be Notre Dame, and then Baylor—but theirs is fairly solid and they knocked off a 2-loss team on Saturday. The Bearcats hold on at #25.

Falling out: Georgia Tech is a decent candidate to get back in soon, but 7-3 Virginia (who beat them previously) will have to get there first; Texas lost to Missouri 17-5 and has no wins to brag about; and 6-4 Auburn still hasn't lost to a non-top 25 team so if they finish 9-4 they're a sure shot for the end-of-season rankings.

Comments

[Vera Colvin]

If the Razorbacks beat LSU, that'll just screw everybody's predictions. It'll certainly put LSU in their place.