2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - week 12: LSU vs. Alabama rematch in the cards

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings after predicting the results of the remaining games and the effect of those results on the polls and the BCS computers. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far left; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

If things play out the way we expect—and almost any other way, too—then LSU and Alabama will face each other in a rematch for the BCS championship in January. The Tigers will have a perfect BCS score if they win out, and Alabama won't be far behind, and they'll be comfortably ahead of the probable #3 Virginia Tech. The Hokies in turn will have a decent lead over #4 Stanford.

The positions from #5 to #7 are virtually deadlocked and could be in any order, but if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State on December 3, look for them to have a tiny edge for #5, ahead of Boise State and Oregon, who won't gain much of anything for their Pac-12 title game win. Arkansas will be just behind Oregon, maybe a little bit more or less depending on how close they play LSU. Oklahoma State should be a very close #9, too, making positions 5 through 9 very tight.

Look for a continued great computer score to put Kansas State in the top 10, well ahead of Wisconsin who will still have a relatively poor one. The Badgers should win the Big Ten and just edge South Carolina for #11. Houston, assuming they are upset by either Tulsa or Southern Miss, will be #13, ahead of Michigan State who should lose the rematch with Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. TCU should round out the top 15 under our set of assumptions.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 12 results

11/20 BCS	12/04 BCS	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	Computer Composite	USA/ Coaches	Harris Interactive
1	1	LSU	13	0	BCS Title	1	1	1
2	2	Alabama	11	1	BCS Title	4	2	2
5	3	Virginia Tech	12	1	Orange	6	3	3
6	4	Stanford	11	1	Fiesta	9	4	4
9	5	Oklahoma	10	2	Fiesta	2	9	8
7	6	Boise St	11	1	Orange	8	6	6
10	7	Oregon	11	2	Rose	10	5	5
3	8	Arkansas	10	2		7	7	7
4	9	Oklahoma St	10	2	Sugar	3	10	10
11	10	Kansas St	10	2		5	12	12
16	11	Wisconsin	11	2	Rose	16	8	9
12	12	South Carolina	10	2		11	11	11
8	13	Houston	11	1		12	13	13
14	14	Michigan St	10	3		14	14	14
20	15	TCU	10	2		15	15	15

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last projection in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	LSU vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Boise State

Last weekend's events have put the BCS on a collision course with a rematch. The only saving grace is, strangely enough, that LSU will have the home field advantage, much as Alabama did for the first game. This way, the Tigers get a deserved edge while at the same time, if Alabama wins they can rightly claim to be the top team.

After Oregon's loss to USC the Ducks will finish below Stanford in the BCS but still go to the Rose Bowl to face Wisconsin; the Cardinal should finish high enough to insure a BCS bowl bid for all practical purposes. The Fiesta Bowl picks first and, having Oklahoma in hand, will go with the Westernmost team—though they could opt for a rematch of the 2006 Oklahoma-Boise State game, which would send Stanford out east to the Orange Bowl again.

The most interesting pick is by the Sugar Bowl. Even before the Fiesta picks its #2 team, the Sugar will have to replace the SEC champs, and they can't pick another SEC team since only two from a conference can participate (there is one exception to this, I believe, which we'll discuss later). Oklahoma State will be the nearest high-ranked team to chose so the Cowboys will be heading to New Orleans. When the 2nd pick rolls around it will be down to Boise (or Stanford) and West Virginia, the expected Big East winner. Without a Southern anchor team the Sugar might be loathe to take Boise, instead opting for another pseudo-Southern team in West Virginia. That leaves Boise State to the Orange Bowl against Virginia Tech.

All of this assumes the games play out exactly as we expect, which is of course a longshot when taken all together. Some of the more likely possible variations include Michigan State winning the Big Ten (they'd go to the Rose Bowl, of course); Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma (replacing them in the Fiesta; they'd still need huge help to make the title game); Clemson defeating Virginia Tech for the ACC crown and Orange Bowl berth; and Houston beating Tulsa and Southern Miss to finish undefeated (they'd likely pass Boise State as the automatic non-AQ team, and most logically end up in the Sugar Bowl).

Some less likely possibilities could alter the BCS championship game. For LSU to be out, they'd probably have to lose twice, to both Arkansas and Georgia. This could happen if the loss to the Razorbacks is close, with the Tigers remaining #1 in the BCS standings and therefore still playing in the SEC title game. If they lose to Arkansas by a lot however, Alabama would be #1 in the BCS and play Georgia, while LSU would probably remain #2 and still play in the BCS title game. If LSU beats Arkansas but loses to Georgia, the Bulldogs would be Sugar-bowl bound as the SEC champ, while conference #2 and #3 LSU and Alabama play for the national title, meaning three SEC teams would be in BCS bowls. How the pollsters would deal with such a thing in practice we don't know, but it could happen.

Of course, Alabama could blow it by losing to Auburn, and coupled with Arkansas wins over LSU and Georgia could put the Razorbacks in an all-SEC BCS title rematch with LSU; that's Arkansas' only real chance to get to the title game. Other BCS-buster results include Oregon State upsetting Oregon and putting Stanford back in the Pac-12 title game; Utah (or whoever wins the Pac-12 South) beating Oregon or Stanford and going to the Rose Bowl; Virginia beating Virginia Tech and Clemson to claim the Orange Bowl berth; and a 7-5 Louisville or Pittsburgh managing to win the Big East.