Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.
2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 10 (11/5/2011)
| lw | proj | Team | Proj W | Proj L | BCS Bowl | W | L | BCS rank |
| 3 | 1 | LSU | 12.1 | 0.9 | BCS Title |
9 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oklahoma St | 11.2 | 0.8 | BCS Title |
9 | 0 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | Alabama | 10.5 | 1.5 | Sugar | 8 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | Oklahoma | 10.4 | 1.6 | Fiesta | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | Boise St | 11.4 | 0.6 | Sugar | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | Stanford | 12.0 | 1.0 | Rose |
9 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | Arkansas | 9.8 | 2.2 | 8 | 1 | 8 | |
| 9 | 8 | Oregon | 10.4 | 1.7 | Fiesta | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | 9 | Virginia Tech | 11.0 | 2.0 | Orange | 8 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | Clemson | 9.9 | 3.1 | 8 | 1 | 9 | |
| 7 | 11 | South Carolina | 9.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 2 | 13 | |
| 13 | 12 | Wisconsin | 10.2 | 2.8 | Rose |
7 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | 13 | Nebraska | 8.9 | 3.1 | 7 | 2 | 19 | |
| 18 | 14 | Penn State | 8.7 | 3.3 | 8 | 1 | 12 | |
| 16 | 15 | Georgia | 9.4 | 3.6 | 7 | 2 | 15 | |
| 15 | 16 | Auburn | 7.7 | 4.3 | 6 | 3 | 20 | |
| 19 | 17 | Michigan St | 9.3 | 3.7 | 7 | 2 | 17 | |
| 14 | 18 | Kansas St | 8.2 | 3.9 | 7 | 2 | 14 | |
| 23 | 19 | Houston | 11.3 | 1.7 | 9 | 0 | 11 | |
| 22 | 20 | Texas | 7.8 | 4.2 | 6 | 2 | 16 | |
| 21 | 21 | Ohio State | 8.4 | 3.6 | 6 | 3 | -- | |
| 24 | 22 | Georgia Tech | 7.9 | 4.1 | 7 | 2 | 21 | |
| 17 | 23 | Texas A&M | 7.6 | 4.4 | 5 | 4 | -- | |
| -- | 24 | Southern Miss | 10.6 | 2.4 | 8 | 1 | 22 | |
| -- | 25 | Cincinnati | 9.6 | 2.4 | Orange | 7 | 1 | 23 |
This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):
| BCS Championship Game: | LSU vs. Oklahoma State |
| Rose Bowl: | Wisconsin vs. Stanford |
| Fiesta Bowl: | Oklahoma vs. Oregon |
| Sugar Bowl: | Alabama vs. Boise State |
| Orange Bowl: | Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati |
A lot happened last weekend! Of course LSU's win puts them in the national championship game, and Alabama is relegated to the Sugar Bowl. Not only that, but Nebraska's loss puts them out of the Rose Bowl and probably the BCS bowl race, even if they finish in the top 14. Now we have them in 2nd in the Legends, which doesn't give them a rematch shot at Wisconsin. The Badgers end up with the highest projected rank so they get the top spot of the Leaders and the Rose Bowl berth. The Big Ten is completely up for grabs; Penn State is 2 games ahead in the Leaders but they have yet to play Wisconsin and could easily lose that and another game. And due to recent events, even if they finish in the lower part of the top 14 they probably won't get picked for a BCS bowl.
Though the Badgers are on the edge as far as finishing #13 in our projection, if they make the top 14 they stand a good chance of being picked. The team travels well, for one thing, and as we've mentioned before there aren't a lot of options for the bowls this year as SEC and Big Twelve teams are going to crowd the top 14, leaving several out of luck due to the 2-team-per-conference limit.
The most interesting question is: who will be #2? Can Alabama recover and get a rematch with LSU? Or will it be Oklahoma State, Stanford, Boise State? Boise is going to have a tough time getting to #2 under almost any circumstances, while Stanford has to beat Oregon and the uncertainty surrounding that has them gaining almost nothing before the final standings. Oklahoma State controls their destiny, most likely. If they lose to Oklahoma, however, the Sooners become a big player, and would end up neck-and-neck with Alabama. So if Stanford falls by the wayside and Oklahoma wins out, it's pretty close between the Tide and the Sooners. Oklahoma will have the advantage with the computers, since they love the Big 12, and while the voters go with Alabama right now, the desire to see something other than a rematch of a 5-field-goal game could prompt voters to move Oklahoma ahead of the Tide. They might not have to pass Alabama in the polls, either, just get close enough so that a big computer advantage pushes them to the top.
But assuming an Oklahoma State win, Oklahoma is in the Fiesta Bowl and where we previously saw Boise State we now see Oregon. It's a tossup between the two as to which the Fiesta Bowl would want, and I don't think they'd care much either way between a 12-0 Boise and 10-2 Oregon. So if the Sugar wants Boise, the Fiesta will go with Oregon. The Sugar would want Boise if a good Big Ten team isn't available, and with Nebraska's loss, Wisconsin perhaps in the Rose if they win out (and not a good choice if they don't), and Penn State tainted by scandal, the Sugar may want an undefeated Boise State against Alabama to try to avenge Georgia's loss. With the Tide there, they've got fans in the seats in New Orleans already. And it would create drama: if Boise can actually win, do they deserve to get votes as national champion?
With so few games left, the "fuzzy logic" method is becoming less logical that just picking the remaining games and projecting based on that. So after next week—when the Oregon/Stanford issue is resolved—we'll be switching to that tactic.
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