2011 Conference Final Standings Projection - week 9: Head-to-head results gain significance

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season

Updated for games through October 29, 2011 (week 9)

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Clemson	6.3	1.7	5	1
2	2	Florida State	5.7	2.3	3	2
3	3	Wake Forest	4.5	3.5	4	2
4	4	North Carolina State	3.4	4.6	1	3
5	5	Maryland	2.7	5.3	1	4
6	6	Boston College	2.0	6.0	1	4
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	6.4	1.6	4	1
2	3	Georgia Tech	4.7	3.3	4	2
3	2	Miami FL	3.6	4.4	2	3
4	4	North Carolina	3.3	4.7	2	3
5	6	Virginia	3.0	5.0	2	2
6	5	Duke	2.3	5.7	1	3

Clemson's loss to Georgia Tech shook up the BCS but not the ACC Atlantic, where the Tigers are still a solid #1, holding a head-to-head win over the projected #2, Florida State.

The Yellow Jackets re-stake their claim to the #2 spot in the Coastal with an eye toward their showdown with Virginia Tech. Virginia now has wins over Georgia Tech and Miami and should avoid the Coastal cellar at the very least.

rank	lw	Big East	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Cincinnati	4.9	2.1	2	0
2	2	Pittsburgh	4.4	2.6	2	1
3	3	West Virginia	4.3	2.7	2	1
4	5	Louisville	3.5	3.5	2	1
5	4	Connecticut	3.2	3.8	1	2
6	6	Rutgers	2.8	4.2	2	2
7	8	South Florida	2.4	4.6	0	3
8	7	Syracuse	2.3	4.7	1	2

No upsets in the Big East this week; every team still has a shot at finishing first or last. The currently projected top four all play each other this weekend, as Cincy travels to Pitt and West Virginia hosts Louisville.

Big Ten
rank	lw	Leaders division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Penn State	5.7	2.3	5	0
2	3	Ohio State	5.4	2.6	2	2
3	1	Wisconsin	5.4	2.6	2	2
4	4	Illinois	3.7	4.3	2	3
5	5	Purdue	3.2	4.8	2	2
6	6	Indiana	0.5	7.5	0	5
rank	lw	Legends division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Nebraska	5.8	2.2	3	1
2	1	Michigan State	5.8	2.2	3	1
3	4	Michigan	4.4	3.6	3	1
4	3	Iowa	4.0	4.0	2	2
5	5	Northwestern	2.1	5.9	1	4
6	6	Minnesota	2.0	6.0	1	3

Wisconsin's 2nd straight loss by desparation touchdown pass knocks them into a tie for 2nd in the Leaders with Ohio State, who beat them on Saturday and thus has the head-to-head edge. At #1 is Penn State, at 5-0 the only team with more than 2 wins in the Leaders. The road gets even tougher for the Lions as they face Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisconsin after a bye week.

In the Legends, Nebraska's 24-3 win over Michigan State puts them into a projected tie with the Spartans, and of course they'd have the tiebreaker. Michigan State has an easier path than the Cornhuskers so the division is still in question. Iowa may have played themselves out of contention by losing to Minnesota, but they still control their own destiny as they face all three of the teams ahead of them; more likely, the Hawks will play spoiler.

rank	lw	Big Twelve	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oklahoma State	8.1	0.9	5	0
2	2	Oklahoma	7.1	1.9	4	1
3	3	Texas A&M	6.0	3.0	3	2
4	5	Missouri	5.3	3.7	2	3
5	4	Kansas State	5.2	3.8	4	1
6	6	Texas	4.6	4.4	2	2
7	7	Texas Tech	3.0	6.0	2	3
8	8	Baylor	2.9	6.1	1	3
9	9	Iowa State	2.3	6.7	1	4
10	10	Kansas	0.6	8.4	0	5

Missouri finally got a big win, beating luckless Texas A&M in overtime. Along with Kansas State's loss to Oklahoma, the Tigers move up to 4th and the Wildcats fall to fifth in our projection. Other than that, the Big Twelve was pretty orderly last weekend. Even Iowa State's upset of Texas Tech didn't rock the boat, other than probably ruling out a run at the upper half by the Red Raiders.

This weekend it's the Aggies' turn at Oklahoma, to see if they can finally get a big win. And Oklahoma State are next in Kansas State's brutal late-season test.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oregon	8.3	0.7	5	0
2	2	Stanford	8.1	0.9	6	0
3	3	Washington	5.4	3.6	4	1
4	5	Oregon State	3.3	5.7	2	3
5	4	California	3.2	5.8	1	4
6	6	Washington State	2.2	6.8	1	4
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arizona State	6.3	2.7	4	1
2	2	USC	5.3	3.7	3	2
3	3	UCLA	5.0	4.0	3	2
4	5	Utah	3.3	5.7	1	4
5	4	Arizona	2.7	6.3	1	5
6	6	Colorado	0.9	8.1	0	5

Stanford held on against USC and preserved the big North division matchup with Oregon. California is looking like the same up-and-down team they were last year, following up a blowout win with a blowout loss.

This weekend Oregon has a test at Washington, and ASU can pretty much seal the deal in the South with a win at UCLA. Utah plays at Arizona essentially for 5th place.

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Georgia	6.3	1.7	5	1
2	1	South Carolina	6.2	1.8	5	1
3	3	Florida	3.2	4.8	2	4
4	4	Kentucky	2.1	5.9	0	4
5	5	Vanderbilt	1.8	6.2	1	4
6	6	Tennessee	1.4	6.6	0	5
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	7.3	0.7	5	0
2	2	LSU	6.7	1.3	5	0
3	3	Arkansas	5.3	2.7	3	1
4	4	Auburn	4.7	3.3	4	2
5	5	Mississippi State	2.5	5.5	1	4
6	6	Mississippi	0.5	7.5	0	5

What does it mean that Georgia is projected to win 1/10th of a game more than South Carolina? The Bulldogs pull slightly ahead by beating Florida; essentially this means that there is a small chance Georgia wins the East outright. For all intents and purposes, the teams are expected to tie for the top, and the Gamecocks win due to their head-to-head win in September. Even though a tie is expected, if one team finishes ahead, it's probably the Bulldogs. They play a non-conference breather against New Mexico State this coming weekend while South Carolina travels to Arkansas.

The West, of course, will be settled on Saturday when LSU takes on Alabama. Alabama's lead in the projection is largely based on our system favoring them to beat the Tigers. Whoever wins is expected to win the SEC title game and play for the national championship. There could be a major change in the SEC—and the BCS—after Saturday!

CUSA
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Southern Miss	5.9	2.1	3	1
2	2	Central Florida	4.6	3.4	2	2
3	3	East Carolina	4.5	3.5	3	1
4	4	Marshall	4.4	3.6	3	2
5	5	UAB	2.5	5.5	1	4
6	6	Memphis	1.3	6.7	1	4
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Tulsa	7.2	0.8	4	0
2	2	Houston	6.4	1.6	4	0
3	3	Southern Methodist	5.0	3.0	3	2
4	4	Rice	2.5	5.5	1	4
5	5	UTEP	2.0	6.0	1	3
6	6	Tulane	1.7	6.3	1	4

No upsets = no action in the projections for Conference USA. Not that there weren't any important games: Tulsa clobbered SMU 38-7 to give credence to our #1 projection in the West, while Southern Miss, Central Florida, and Houston all handily defeated bottom-half squads UTEP, Memphis, and Rice to keep things orderly.

Tulsa travels to Central Florida on Thursday, and whoever loses takes a big hit in their quest to win their own division. On Saturday Southern Miss faces projected #3 East Carolina who is currently tied for the East lead with the Golden Eagles at 3-1.

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Temple	5.0	3.0	3	2
2	2	Miami OH	4.3	3.7	2	2
3	3	Ohio	3.8	4.2	2	2
4	5	Kent State	3.5	4.5	1	3
5	4	Bowling Green	3.3	4.7	2	3
6	6	Buffalo	2.3	5.7	1	4
7	7	Akron	0.7	7.3	0	4
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Toledo	6.3	1.7	4	0
2	2	Northern Illinois	6.2	1.8	3	1
3	3	Western Michigan	5.0	3.0	3	2
4	4	Ball State	4.1	3.9	3	2
5	5	Eastern Michigan	3.9	4.1	3	1
6	6	Central Michigan	3.4	4.6	2	3

The only teams that switch projected positions are Kent State and Bowling Green, and that's cuz the Golden Flashes beat the Falcons 27-15 on Saturday. Other than that, no surprises from the MAC. There was a showdown of cellar dwellers, with the West division again showing its superiority as Central Michigan edged Akron 23-22.

And due to the West's dominance over the East, the real MAC title game could be tonight's (Tuesday) game between Toledo and Northern Illinois. The Rockets already beat East leader Temple in a rout.
 

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Boise State	6.4	0.6	2	0
2	2	TCU	6.3	0.7	3	0
3	3	San Diego State	3.9	3.1	1	2
4	4	Air Force	3.9	3.1	1	3
5	5	Wyoming	3.2	3.8	2	0
6	6	Colorado State	1.8	5.2	1	2
7	7	UNLV	1.6	5.4	1	1
8	8	New Mexico	0.9	6.1	0	3

Just when it looked like the pecking order was set, Wyoming had to shake things up by upsetting San Diego State 30-27. This dropped the Aztecs into a projected tie with Air Force for third, but since they hold a head-to-head win it didn't change things ultimately. It does suggest Wyoming—now 2-0—have a shot at beating the #4 Falcons and could finish in the upper half of the conference. They could prove a lot more this weekend by beating TCU...

rank	lw	Sun Belt	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arkansas State	7.2	0.8	4	0
2	2	Louisiana Lafayette	5.7	2.3	5	1
3	4	Western Kentucky	5.2	2.8	4	1
4	3	Florida International	5.0	3.0	2	2
5	7	North Texas	3.5	4.5	2	3
6	6	Troy	3.5	4.5	1	3
7	5	Louisiana Monroe	3.3	4.7	1	3
8	8	Middle Tennessee St	2.0	6.0	1	3
9	9	Florida Atlantic	0.6	7.4	0	4

Despite FIU's win over Troy, Western Kentucky pulled slightly ahead in the race for #3 in the Sun Belt, sending Louisiana-Monroe down to 7th place with a 31-28 overtime win. Strangely, North Texas jumped two spots after losing to Arkansas State; the loss was already mostly factored in, and Troy and the Warhawks both dropped after losses, leaving a tight race for 5th place. FIU can try to take back 3rd place by beating the Hilltoppers this weekend.

rank	lw	WAC	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Nevada	6.3	0.7	3	0
2	3	Hawaii	4.6	2.4	3	1
3	4	Louisiana Tech	4.5	2.5	3	1
4	2	Fresno State	4.4	2.6	2	1
5	5	San Jose State	3.6	3.4	2	2
6	6	Utah State	2.0	5.0	0	2
7	7	New Mexico State	1.5	5.5	1	3
8	8	Idaho	1.0	6.0	0	4

Nevada held off New Mexico State to remain a clear #1 in our projection and a slight leader in the current standings over Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, and Fresno State. The latter three are in a very tight battle for #2 in the projected standings; Hawaii's narrow win over Idaho was enough to hold off Louisiana Tech (who beat San Jose State), and both passed Fresno who was idle last weekend. The Bulldog teams face each other this weekend and the winner should be in good position for #2.