This weekend features three games that could be previews of major conference championship games. The most likely is Nebraska vs. Wisconsin, as the Badgers' path looks clear in the "Leaders" while Nebraska is probably the best team in the "Legends" side. In the ACC Clemson takes on Virginia Tech, and in the SEC Alabama faces Florida, and both of those are legitimate predictions for title games, too. In the top intra-conference game, the Big Twelve's Texas A&M battles Arkansas of the SEC.
#18 Texas A&M (2-1) vs. #20 Arkansas (3-1)
Line/spread: Texas A&M by 2 1/2
Strength Power Rating pick: Texas A&M 31-17
Analysis: This game should settle—until the bowl season—the argument over which conference is better this year, the Big Twelve or the SEC. Most people aren't even having that argument but the Big Twelve's pre-conference record puts them at the top, and they can prove it if A&M can beat the Razorbacks. Both teams lost last week and the question is: which team can bounce back? Though Arkansas lost to Alabama by several touchdowns, they'll probably put that game in the past faster than the Aggies can lose the bitter taste of last week's blown lead over Oklahoma State. Just like last year, they lost a close game to the Cowboys, and I think they'll follow the pattern and again lose to Arkansas in the following week.
Final prediction: Arkansas 27, Texas A&M 21
#13 Baylor (3-0) at Kansas State (3-0)
Line/spread: Baylor by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating pick: Baylor 38-17
Analysis: This is where Robert Griffin's Heisman hopes come to a crashing halt or continue to fly. Seven of the ten teams in the Big Twelve are still undefeated, but that number will fall by at least two teams (see Texas vs. Iowa State below). Baylor hasn't played a road game yet but the Wildcats aren't exactly a juggernaut at home, having defeated Eastern Kentucky just 10-7 in Manhattan on opening week. They also haven't faced a threat like Griffin yet this year. Baylor was good enough to beat TCU, and to us the Strength Power Ratings' projected score looks pretty sound.
Final prediction: Baylor 38, Kansas State 17
#16 Clemson (4-0) at #11 Virginia Tech (4-0)
Line/spread: Virginia Tech by 7
Strength Power Rating pick: Virginia Tech 30-20
Analysis: This is another game that could be a championship game come December. We still favor Florida State making the title game, but Clemson holds a win over the Seminoles so they have a great chance. Meanwhile Virginia Tech looks good in the Coastal as most of those teams are stumbling with the exception of Georgia Tech. The Tigers have definitely faced better competition than the Hokies, with a win over Auburn in addition to FSU. Virginia Tech's offense hasn't been explosive but it's clear that the defense is good, giving up 13, 10, 7, and 10 points in their four games. Clemson will be on the road for the first time and their run of hard-fought wins should come to an end.
Final prediction: Virginia Tech 20, Clemson 17
Texas (3-0) at Iowa State (3-0)
Line/spread: Texas by 9 1/2
Strength Power Rating pick: Texas 28-21
Analysis: This is the other Big Twelve conference clash of undefeated teams, and here, Iowa State is the surprise at 3-0. The Cyclones upset Iowa in triple overtime, then went on the road and stunned Connecticut 24-20. Like Kansas State, they also nearly lost to a Division I-AA team in the first weekend, and they're also underdogs to a visiting team from Texas. We didn't pick the Longhorns for a major turnaround this year—we see them as a bowl team, not a top 25 team—but the change in quarterback is probably just what they need to get there. Two weeks ago they beat UCLA 49-20 on the road after losing to them 34-12 last season. A similar reversal against the Cyclones would take them from last year's 28-21 loss to a 44-point blowout. That could happen, since it does seem like Iowa State's luck has to run out, and maybe in a big way. But Texas is probably still too shaky on offense to rack up huge points reliably yet. Reversing last year's score matches the Strength Power Rating's prediction, so we'll go with that.
Final prediction: Texas 28, Iowa State 21
#2 Alabama (4-0) at #9 Florida (4-0)
Line/spread: Alabama by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating pick: Alabama 30-25
Analysis: We realize this game is being played in the Swamp, but this line seems a bit low to us. Florida has been putting up a lot of points—41, 39, 33, and 38, to be exact. But Alabama has given up just 7, 11, 0, and 14 in their four games. With all the talk about LSU having the #1 defense, the Tide D will look at this game as another chance to prove otherwise. The Gator offense has been running like a machine in a series of what amounts to practice sessions; if they can produce against Alabama it will mean a lot. We think this game goes the low-scoring route however.
Final prediction: Alabama 20, Florida 13
#14 Nebraska (4-0) at #6 Wisconsin (4-0)
Line/spread: Wisconsin by 10
Strength Power Rating pick: Wisconsin 40-27
Analysis: The Badgers have been uber-consistent in knocking off four overmatched opponents at home this year by an average of 40 points. Nebraska has been all over the board on defense but is 4-0 and averaging over 40 points on offense per game. Twice the Cornhuskers scored 13-point wins, allowing Fresno State 29 points and Washington 38. For this game, the piling-on of points should end. Even though Nebraska's defense hasn't been great so far, it's a lot better than what Wisconsin has faced. And the Cornhuskers will move the ball a lot slower against the Badgers, so the whole game will be played in molasses compared to what both teams are used to so far. Wisconsin has been so spoon-fed early on that they might have trouble adjusting to playing a real foe, but they're at home again and should come out on top.
Final prediction: Wisconsin 27, Nebraska 24
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